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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Wilma Continued
      #59484 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:19 PM

9:30 PM Udpate
The model fluke ealier was apparantly just that, the newest run of the GFDL is back in line with what it had earlier, crossing the Florida Peninsula over the weekend.

Folks along the west coast of Florida may want to begin thinking of preperations for the weekend, and those in the cone and along the coast must continue to watch it very closely and plan accordingly. Please listen and heed local officials and sources for the best information for your immediate area.

Original Update
Wilma is fluctuating in intensity, and is back down some this afternoon. Model projections are starting to get scattered again, led by the GFDL, which suggests a slower moving system and meandering near the Yucatan, never quite making it toward Florida. Most still remain, along with the offiical forecast, headed toward Florida. The 5PM Update from the National Hurricane Center will be interesting.

The complexity level of forecasting the system just went up tenfold because of the new run. We'll have to wait until later to determine. It is still quite possible that Wilma never gets as far north as expected. But as said earlier, until a definitive turn is made to the north no one in the cone should be letting their guard down.

The GFDL model may need to be tossed this run, or it may be the signal of a change. Time will tell.

More to come later.

Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.


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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: MikeC]
      #59497 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:33 PM

The latest recon:

000
URNT12 KNHC 191822
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/18:06:20Z
B. 17 deg 24 min N
083 deg 23 min W
C. 700 mb 2149 m
D. 75 kt
E. 29 deg 008 nm
F. 111 deg 128 kt
G. 023 deg 002 nm
H. EXTRAP 894 mb
I. 12 C/ 3058 m
J. 20 C/ 3028 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0824A Wilma OB 11
MAX FL WIND 128 KT N QUAD 18:05:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

894mb pressure, that sounds about right, but 75kt surface winds? What?

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: leetdan]
      #59505 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:41 PM

as a note
H. 892 mb
Is what I'm seeing for the pressure
I'm not sure which is right though, but it's the same timestamp...

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: leetdan]
      #59506 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:42 PM

They have since corrected that report to an actual measured pressure of 892mb. Not sure why the NHC went with 900mb at 2pm -- a more conservative increase would have been more prudent, IMO. Nevertheless, it's weaker than before but not much weaker, with an eyewall cycle to come shortly. The microwave data strongly hint at it coming...it's only a matter of time.

By the way, those 75kt "surface" winds are visual estimates from the plane crew, nothing more.


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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: leetdan]
      #59508 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:44 PM

So, does any of this infer that Wilma will become stationary for a while, which I was asking in the previous thread?

--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: leetdan]
      #59509 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:46 PM

Quote:

The latest recon:

000
URNT12 KNHC 191822
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/18:06:20Z
B. 17 deg 24 min N
083 deg 23 min W
C. 700 mb 2149 m
D. 75 kt
E. 29 deg 008 nm
F. 111 deg 128 kt
G. 023 deg 002 nm
H. EXTRAP 894 mb
I. 12 C/ 3058 m
J. 20 C/ 3028 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0824A Wilma OB 11
MAX FL WIND 128 KT N QUAD 18:05:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

894mb pressure, that sounds about right, but 75kt surface winds? What?




"The GFDL model may need to be tossed this run", perhaps, but it is interesting to see this whobbling pretty smartly west this afternoon. I will give the admin this much, that much continuity change is usually laughable so I'm about 60% still in favor of the earlier runs.. I just don't like the nearer term movement...hmm

(much of the following copied from recent thread..)
...Fluctuations will inevitably occur and be most likely brought about by perturbational affects of her own doing; convection processes balanced against undetermined ERC's.... - nothing new there... but all of which there is virtually no predictive skill for timing; let alone subsequent affects on her intensity...

...We notice that her structure, while remaining essentially the same, is not associated with the extreme cold cloud tops that were almost off the scale overnight. The above recon is not surprising.

...This morning I took note of what appeared to be a small amount of dry air knifing into her wester circulation area. (Not sure if this has already been covered this morning so apologies for any redundances - actually, we're probably all repeating ourselves to some degree by now...) Anyway, more of this is actually probably having to do with the diurnal cycle, which is negative during the day (although usually more so toward the later afternoon, which is why I suggest some dry air may have been gulped into the circulation - perhaps masked by the cirrus shield...which by the way is fanstastically large!

...Anyway, for intensity enthusiasts, we were at or near a theoretical limitation for heat content, u/a mechanics and surrounding prospective inhibitors, anyway. NHC mentions or at least hints this overnight or this morning... . What that means is that it is more likely that fluctuations will be weaker rather than stronger.

...This reminds me...it will be interesting to see how she behaves as she moves from an area of lower than normal environmental pressure, toward and area of more normal.. If she maintains her core pressure while she goes, the wind will have to compensate... The trick is, the water is slightly cooler along her predicted track between the Yucatan Penisula and Florida, so she probably will not have the convection to maintain such low pressure.. It will be interesting to see how this aspect evolves.

...There are a lot of dimensions to this.. .For one, the amount of geography altimately affected by Wilma in the U.S. could be staggering... If these left course continue to materialize and ultimately verfiy as she's climbing in latitude, we could have substantial marine impacts from Florida's East Coast all the way to Bar Harbor in Maine. If not impacted by wind, surf "might" be an issue... And, should Wilma slam into Buzzard's Bay in Massachusetts like the 06Z GFS and the NOGAPS are indicating, we are likely going to have a 1938-like scenario of funneling storm surge... The other thing about this: The accelerated movement and current path notion of these models is such that brings her along the length of the Gulf Stream after leaving Florida, then turning her N near about 37 latitude by about 73w (appr). This is disconcerting to say the least... Basically, she's moving quickly across Florida as a cat 3 (if they are lucky..), but so quickly that she may not have a lot of time to exhaust momentum over the relatively flat land area of the Florida Peninsula... Then, she's zipping up the East Coastal waters at some 35-45mph along the length of the Gulf Stream... May not be enough to "strengthen" but could just be a maintenance course.. Then, she does have to traverse the N wall of the Gulf stream and colder water that lurks for about 3 degrees of latitude S of Long Island, but at a very fast forward speed (which is climatologically both favored and necessary given the synoptics of 4 days from now) she will likely have limited time to weaken before crossing that inhibition.....

...Could make some history in New England should that verify; which is augmented by the fact that we would have uniquely enhanced meso-scale aspect associated with lift just west of inevitable coastal boundary, over an area that CAN NOT TAKE any more rain. Also, with saturated ground and an unusually late foliage season that I can personally vouch for in the area of Eastern New England, the timbre cost could be large....

...But, in the end, I think it important to take this one step at a time and the Floridians diserve all our attention for now.. Good luck!

I figure I ought to add to this before the qauntlet drops... this was all predicated on the assumption that the mroe threatening guidance is correct! it is note worthy that the 12Z guidance has backed off on intensity from the two models in question; and it has already been noted by another member that the ECM was not as threatening to latter interests in the 00Z run. Frankly, i find it a little dubious of the 12Z GFS to take it into the ne coast of the Yucatan.. we must remember, the models have a bit of a memory too... they'd logged a lot of Yuc interaction and then a smartly out to sea solution for days...then, one sampling and it looked a lot different...It may just be that we are seeing another oscillation in the models based on momentum from previous runs.[\i]


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emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: dave foster]
      #59511 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:49 PM

Looks like the BAMM is going with the GFDL!

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html


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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
Re: 2pm update? [Re: leetdan]
      #59512 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:49 PM

Anybody have a NHC 2pm -5 day warning and cone or are they going to wait until 5pm for an update.

Also the 75kts wind was an estimate that was observed my guess on the flights in bound run.


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mempho
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 10
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Clark]
      #59513 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:49 PM

Quote:

The microwave data strongly hint at it coming...it's only a matter of time.

.




Clark,

Could you tell some of us who don't know how you are interpreting the microwave imagery to tell when an ERC is coming? Thanks in advance


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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #59515 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:53 PM

Can someone explain to me all the wobbling. I understand a wobble but this thing looks like it's in a tailspin?

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Clark]
      #59518 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:56 PM

The latest supplemental vortex message notes 152 kt FL winds in the SW quadrant. It also indicates that the outer wind maximum which has been observed for awhile has intensified and moved closer to the center, which goes along with what Clark mentioned about the imminent ERC.

Reposted from the old thread:

They did what was listed as eyewall dropsonde in the NE eyewall which showed some unusual data... surface pressure measured by the dropsonde was 898 mb (only slightly lower than the listed central pressure, which would be unusual for the eyewall). The mean boundary layer winds were listed as being out of the N at 81 knots, the 850mb winds were listed as being out of the N at 88 kts, while the 700mb winds were listed as being out of the E at 41 knots. I'm not sure what to make of all that.

The eye dropsonde that measured 892mb also measured 29 knot winds at the surface. Typically, that would indicate that the actual central pressure is 2-3 mb lower, but this isn't a typical storm, so who knows.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Clark]
      #59519 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:57 PM

Gee if it looks like this at 892mb...wonder what the pressure was at 7am.

Satellite signature really starting to change now, but previous to the last couple hours, it appeared to be steady state since late last night.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #59520 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:57 PM

On second thought...


"MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
143 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...HRCN Wilma...
VRY POOR MDL CONSISTENCY WITH WILDLY VARYING SOLNS SEEN IN THE 12Z
GLOBAL MDL SUITE. THE OVERALL TREND OF A SLOWER MOVING HRCN Wilma
SEEMS REALISTIC GIVEN SHRT TERM TRENDS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE MAIN PROBLEM CONTINUE TO BE THE POINT AT WHICH THE STG HEIGHT
FALLS OVR THE E CTRL U.S. PULL THE STORM POLEWARD. THERE HAS BEEN
A TREND WWD IN THE 12Z UKMET/GFS AND NAM SOLNS...BUT THESE MDLS
DIFFER WITH THEIR TIMING. THE 12Z CMC SOLN IS FARTHER TO THE RIGHT
AND A LITTLE FASTER. PLS SEE LATEST NHC DISC FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON Wilma."

...Still, something doesn't seem right about this 12Z variant... I just think it's ultimately going to come down to an as yet determine meridianal depth of the trough centered on 80+W, when that finally occurs.. so I agree with them that much. As far as the GFDL interacting with the landmass of NE Coast of Yucatan - this is the first run that has had this behavior and has virtually no support from previous guidance suites - at least, not that far inland..


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No Hurricane Experience
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Re: Wilma Continued (Nervous Traveler) [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #59523 - Wed Oct 19 2005 03:01 PM

This is going to sound like a totally irrelevant question to all of you living in Florida, and for that I apologize in advance. I live in the State of Washington and my family and I are scheduled to fly in to Orlando at 5pm on this coming Monday night to start our vacation (we love Florida and we're going to the parks for a week in Orlando and then heading out to Port Canavaral for a cruise to the Eastern Caribbean leaving on Saturday the 29th). We have absolutely no hurricane experience and were wondering if we should consider cancelling our plans in the Orlando area if the hurricane looks to go through that area over the weekend (or later)?? Our thoughts and prayers are with everybody in Florida and I know these questions are trivial compared to trying to make plans regarding Wilma where you live. Any thoughts anyone has would be greatly appreciated.

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #59524 - Wed Oct 19 2005 03:03 PM

I t really seems like the models caught some kind of data bochulisim on the 12Z run. Either we had some bad data ingested or something wacky is going on. I will be interested to see the 0Z runs to see what happens. The GFS is going to "infect" a lot of other models, including GFDL. If the same things happen at 0Z, I will start to wonder what is up.

--------------------
Jim


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jeangfl
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Wilma Continued (Nervous Traveler) [Re: No Hurricane Experience]
      #59525 - Wed Oct 19 2005 03:05 PM

I live in SW FL and my advice to you is DON'T COME. You say you have no hurricane experience - you should try to keep it that way.

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Major Sharpe
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 9
Loc: Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: emackl]
      #59526 - Wed Oct 19 2005 03:05 PM

Quote:

Looks like the BAMM is going with the GFDL!

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html





This is my first post; I've been keeping up with you gurus over the past year, and have been extraordinarily impressed with the bulk of the discussion.

I'm based in Orlando; two hours ago, I believed (like some others) that this storm would continue to track northward and actually hit somewhere between Punta Gorda and Sarasota. The BAMM and GFDL models have given me pause in this previous line of thought. I know that many here believe that this is, perhaps, an aberration in the models, to be corrected in future models. The GFDL alone would have me agreeing. Subsequently, however, the BAMM came into semi-concurrence. Knowing the reliability of GFDL this season, I am seriously wondering if this might pan out, and thus spare Florida (or, at least, western Florida).

Sharpe


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: charlottefl]
      #59527 - Wed Oct 19 2005 03:06 PM

Quote:

Can someone explain to me all the wobbling. I understand a wobble but this thing looks like it's in a tailspin?




Hi, these odd oscillations you are looking at are called trochodial motions...
by the book that means: "the curve generated by a point on the radius of a circle or the radius extended as the circle rolls on a fixed straight line"... in other words, Wilma is traveling along an average path (according to NHC) that is wnw, while performing small-scaled loops as she goes.

As to the cause... interesting enigma; I haven't actually read any papers formally on the 'cause'.


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Rasvar]
      #59528 - Wed Oct 19 2005 03:07 PM

I am already wondering what is up. Such a large shift in the models from one run to another this close to landfall is weird to say the least. I too am waiting for the next runs to see if we can get a handle on this thing.
grrr
right when i was having more confidence in the track
i just like to KNOW where its going oh well tomorrow IS another day

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Wilma Continued (Nervous Traveler) [Re: No Hurricane Experience]
      #59529 - Wed Oct 19 2005 03:08 PM

I'd say give it about 36 hours. If this storm comes to Florida then I would cancel. However, with all the wacky models at the moment I would sit tight.

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