dolfinatic
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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It definitely is going to be east of the first point. And if you xtrap to the next one, it will be east of that one also. It definitely appears to be moving more northwest at the moment. Also appears to have sped up slightly. Looking at IR the dark blackish color is appearing again near center. Could this be another intensification?
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Sadie
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
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I can't help wondering in all this confusion, if there is any glimmer of what the Superensemble is showing. Any hints?
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"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota
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zacker20
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 27
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Quote:
What do you think the NW motion would do to the track? Would they keep the current track or would it be moved at landfall point N or S?
It all depends on the timing of the trough. That will determine whether the track shifts northward or southward. will have to pick up her forward speed and continue moving northwest in order for the trough to bring her back to the northeast later. If she clips the eastern tip of the Yucatan pennisula and still is moving northwest, then she will be coming in more north on the FL pennisula, because of the angle she will be at when she is picked up by the trough. This is becomng less and less likely though, because is still moving at a very slow forward speed and is expected slowdown in the next 24 hours, which means the trough could completely miss her and she will go directly into the Yucatan, or she will be nudged directly east towards extreme southern FL and the keys.
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Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
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Quote:
What do you think the NW motion would do to the track? Would they keep the current track or would it be moved at landfall point N or S?
Extrapolate the motion and you get the expected result, all things being equal.
Problem is, they never are.
I agree that the strong low that was over California - and that everyone (and the models) thought would come east, rather than northeast, and move slower than it actually did probably resulted in the "bad" track.
However, the amplification pulse that I (and a lot of other people!) in the form of the second trough is still coming, and the height falls in front of it are still going to happen. These storms tend to move into weakness, and that weakness is still going to be there.
A landfall into the Yucatan would be catastrophic for them, and even if it doesn't stop an impact in Florida, it would take some of the gas out of this thing. But - and this is a big but - anyone who bets the farm on that scenario right now could easily be picking up matchsticks in a few days.
I see differences in the pattern, but not in the overall synoptic environment, and I am getting increasingly concerned about a secondary (if you can call it that) impact in the New England area early next week due to the storm phasing with the front that looks to be moving right on schedule. A storm with 100kt winds moving at close to 50kts would be the equivalent of a 150kt storm if you're on the "wrong" side of it - that would be truly horiffic if it comes to pass, and way beyond anything that people are expecting up there.
I believe that we'll know quite a bit more by tomorrow evening in terms of whether the trough connection is going to "miss" or not, and if it does, if the height falls will be sufficient to initiate the movement north and eastward. My money is still on "yes", but I'm keeping a wary eye on this thing - this storm has been amazing so far, and those "wobbles" are something that I don't think I've ever seen before (at that level of amplitude) Those almost look like a mini-eye rotating around a larger, internal eye - a wild structure if indeed that's what's going on.....
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
It definitely is going to be east of the first point. And if you xtrap to the next one, it will be east of that one also. It definitely appears to be moving more northwest at the moment. Also appears to have sped up slightly. Looking at IR the dark blackish color is appearing again near center. Could this be another intensification?
The dark blackish area is coming and going by the half hour. I've been wondering about that. Is there any shear in the area at all? Seems like a dumb question, as shear would likely weaken this thing beyond the unreal realm that it has been in since 2:30am ET, but something is causing the cloud tops to warm almost immediately after they cool. Overall, however, the cloud pattern is better than it was 2-3 hours ago. The eye has almost completely disappeared, though. Could this still be the , which appeared to me to have ended? Based strictly on the lack of a strong eye, I'd say we're looking at a "weak" cat 5 or a "strong" cat 4 storm currently - 150-160 mph winds, but I could be way off.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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The A98e model has it know going into central florida.It has shifted it track up north it could mean that later on the others might start doing the same thing we really need to keep an eye on this storm. 
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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certainly looks like will be 100 miles east of the forcast point in an hour or less, which seems like more than a wobble
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
Quote:
What do you think the NW motion would do to the track? Would they keep the current track or would it be moved at landfall point N or S?
Extrapolate the motion and you get the expected result, all things being equal.
Problem is, they never are.
I agree that the strong low that was over California - and that everyone (and the models) thought would come east, rather than northeast, and move slower than it actually did probably resulted in the "bad" track.
However, the amplification pulse that I (and a lot of other people!) in the form of the second trough is still coming, and the height falls in front of it are still going to happen. These storms tend to move into weakness, and that weakness is still going to be there.
A landfall into the Yucatan would be catastrophic for them, and even if it doesn't stop an impact in Florida, it would take some of the gas out of this thing. But - and this is a big but - anyone who bets the farm on that scenario right now could easily be picking up matchsticks in a few days.
I see differences in the pattern, but not in the overall synoptic environment, and I am getting increasingly concerned about a secondary (if you can call it that) impact in the New England area early next week due to the storm phasing with the front that looks to be moving right on schedule. A storm with 100kt winds moving at close to 50kts would be the equivalent of a 150kt storm if you're on the "wrong" side of it - that would be truly horiffic if it comes to pass, and way beyond anything that people are expecting up there.
I believe that we'll know quite a bit more by tomorrow evening in terms of whether the trough connection is going to "miss" or not, and if it does, if the height falls will be sufficient to initiate the movement north and eastward. My money is still on "yes", but I'm keeping a wary eye on this thing - this storm has been amazing so far, and those "wobbles" are something that I don't think I've ever seen before (at that level of amplitude) Those almost look like a mini-eye rotating around a larger, internal eye - a wild structure if indeed that's what's going on.....
Amen - I implore you read some of my earlier posts... I'm thinking identically...!
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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Where in New England and could the storm impact New York in any way? And when in New England?
I hope is the last big storm. I really don't want more people to have to go through what we just went
through. We still have a lot of rebuilding to do.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I've noticed quite a few comments about 's wobbling. Dr Steve Lyon's at had a closeup graphic of this earlier. 's eye is indeed wobbling/ rotating around a central point. One of the FL NWS Offices mentioned two eyes, with the smaller eye rotating around the larger one. Concentric eyewalls ( different diameters ) were mention in the 19Z Vortex message.
This could be throwing some fluctuation into the models. I haven't looked at the center fixes so I'm guessing.
NOAA9, the Gulfstream is currently conducting pre-storm enviroment sampling, and Air Force Recon is scheduled for takeoff within the next 10 minutes.
Center fix is scheduled for 05Z or 1AM EDT.
00Z Model run tonight should contain all of the data from the Gulfstream Flight. The model is normally finished it's run out to 120 hours/ 5 days, at 0430Z or 12:30AM EDT. Right now we have to resort to using the 18Z models.
An earlier post asked about the model times. The time is basically the "Start" of the data run.
Updates may be found at:
http://www.ncep.noaa.gov
Under " Current Status ".
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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I noticed a lot of the models shifting further south then before. BAMM is crossing Cuba & BAMM Deep is in the Keys. Is this a result of the secondary front?
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
Quote:
What do you think the NW motion would do to the track? Would they keep the current track or would it be moved at landfall point N or S?
It all depends on the timing of the trough. That will determine whether the track shifts northward or southward. will have to pick up her forward speed and continue moving northwest in order for the trough to bring her back to the northeast later. If she clips the eastern tip of the Yucatan pennisula and still is moving northwest, then she will be coming in more north on the FL pennisula, because of the angle she will be at when she is picked up by the trough. This is becomng less and less likely though, because is still moving at a very slow forward speed and is expected slowdown in the next 24 hours, which means the trough could completely miss her and she will go directly into the Yucatan, or she will be nudged directly east towards extreme southern FL and the keys.
Nice reasoning, might happen. You seem to have latched on to the 12Z idea - Don't see that likely. Took a peek at the water vapor and the ULL looks robust & is tracking due east - not too far north. In addition, the westerlies are already approaching the NW GOM and will soon be aligned along the northern Gulf Coast. The high over the western GOM is rapidly breaking down and the subtropical ridge to the east to starting to exert its influence on - moving it at a little faster clip to the NW now. I see riding the edge of the Atlantic Ridge and then being influenced by the westerlies as she gains latitude in the GOM - turning her NE. Unfortunately, I think there is little doubt of an ultimate landfall between Tampa and Key West.
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RJB
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Just for the sake of conversation, the A98 did shift north in the last run (towards Sarasota). I don't put any stock whatsoever into either the LBAR or the A98. Those two are well documented as being a P.O.S.... I'm not exactly worried about it. However... it did catch my eye and just thought I'd mention it.
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willw
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
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What i am hearing at the moment in the tampa/sarasota area is this is a SOUTH SOUTH florida event and while we are to keep a look at it just incase... Odds are we won't be affected maybe at all, they were saying maybe this weekend will be no wind or raid but a normal weekend... So that worries me a bit that the weather people here on the west coast think this is all but over. Considering people are saying it's going more east now, that only leads more to the naples area landfall or below that.
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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Im seeing right on target to their track going through the yucatan peninsula she is on the west side of it. I can clearly also see the other eye that was mentioned earlier too.
Edited by weatherwatcher2 (Wed Oct 19 2005 09:22 PM)
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harmlc.ath.cx
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 54
Loc: Longwood
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It's really to early to tell. As we saw earlier with the model, things can change at a moments notice. To say that it's for sure going to hit south florida is to premature at this time.
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Big Tk
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 25
Loc: Tampa FL
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She seems to have picked up some speed since 5 pm. At this rate she'll be well north of the forecast by tomorrow morning.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Our high res photo from today:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2005292-1019/Wilma.A2005292.1640.2km.jpg
(the sizes at the top increase the resolution - but the images get huge)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Okay, I don't usually do this as I'm not a MET.
I just checked the last 24 hours of models runs on Dr Vigh's site at Colorado State.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/index.htm
If You live south of a Tampa to Kennedy Space Center line. One of the models has been over or close to You.
The outlier (furtherest North of all models) seems to be the LBAR model. But it is constant with it's location.
The models Will change over the next few days. The main intent here is to get people to Prepare for a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Wind Event.
If You, or someone You know. Live south of a Tampa to Kennedy Space Center Line, then please get things in order for probable power and water outage, and possible evacuation.
If you are placed under a Mandatory or Voluntary Evacuation...Please Leave.
Especially those near low lying areas that are prone to flash flooding, rivers, streams and the Beaches.
Please consult your local NWS Office, Weather Radio or for Official Statements, Watches and Warnings~danielw
Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 19 2005 09:27 PM)
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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what station?
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