tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Nah, we get plenty of these questions.
Monday is currently projected to be after the storm has passed. Based on the current track and windfield, you'll likely be just peachy to come in on Monday.
Now that being said, pay attention to this storm as (Orlando International Airport) will close if the storm threatens it - they will cancel flights and divert inbound traffic if things get hairy.
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Lance Wilson
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
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I would not cancel now, wait for a while. If you did not buy the travel insurance, you may lose a lot of money if you cancel. Also, it is not 100% set in stone where this is going..
Lance
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The BAMM model also runs off of the output, so that isn't necessarily telling us anything new. The 12Z forecast track is actually very similar to the track forecasted by the (formerly known as Eta) regional model. The is typically useless for forecasting hurricane track, so that isn't necessarily a mark in the 's favor.
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 55
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http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/f7_8_0.html
take a look at the ridge building in from texas to south carolina. seems to be blocking out that low that was in l.a. a few days ago and started moving eastward. the southern end of that trough that was supposed to sweep across is no more.
and with the pirouettes that decided to execute today, the models are probably well off from each other due to the inconsistant measurements taken by us. i think someone stated that the latest vortex message said wildly different speeds depending on if you were on the west or east side of the mean boundary layer -- well, that "appears" to be like that probably because the pirouettes were in motion and you would have probably seen (if you were able to measure both sides of the boundary layer in real-time) two wind speeds which were moving in opposite directions at all times going up and down as did her piroueettes.
Quote:
On second thought...
"MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
143 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
...HRCN ...
VRY POOR MDL CONSISTENCY WITH WILDLY VARYING SOLNS SEEN IN THE 12Z
GLOBAL MDL SUITE. THE OVERALL TREND OF A SLOWER MOVING HRCN
SEEMS REALISTIC GIVEN SHRT TERM TRENDS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE MAIN PROBLEM CONTINUE TO BE THE POINT AT WHICH THE STG HEIGHT
FALLS OVR THE E CTRL U.S. PULL THE STORM POLEWARD. THERE HAS BEEN
A TREND WWD IN THE 12Z UKMET/GFS AND SOLNS...BUT THESE MDLS
DIFFER WITH THEIR TIMING. THE 12Z SOLN IS FARTHER TO THE RIGHT
AND A LITTLE FASTER. PLS SEE LATEST DISC FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON ."
...Still, something doesn't seem right about this 12Z variant... I just think it's ultimately going to come down to an as yet determine meridianal depth of the trough centered on 80+W, when that finally occurs.. so I agree with them that much. As far as the interacting with the landmass of NE Coast of Yucatan - this is the first run that has had this behavior and has virtually no support from previous guidance suites - at least, not that far inland..
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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To discover the cause, look at man-made trochoidal oscillations. The Rotary engine is a brilliant example. The eccentric shaft roates around a fixed point (with the rotors on an offset lobe) and forces the rotor around it in a dual-oval pattern.
http://auto.howstuffworks.com/rotary-engine8.htm
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Lance Wilson
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
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Seems like everything based on the has changed, and the other models have not. Sounds like bad data for the , but that is my untrained guess, nothing more.
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 55
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and note that the cirrus shield along with the outer rain bands will probably be quite large with this storm. i'm in 34202 and we're probably gonna have to wrap up stuff on friday afternoon at the latest.
Quote:
Nah, we get plenty of these questions.
Monday is currently projected to be after the storm has passed. Based on the current track and windfield, you'll likely be just peachy to come in on Monday.
Now that being said, pay attention to this storm as (Orlando International Airport) will close if the storm threatens it - they will cancel flights and divert inbound traffic if things get hairy.
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
This is going to sound like a totally irrelevant question to all of you living in Florida, and for that I apologize in advance. I live in the State of Washington and my family and I are scheduled to fly in to Orlando at 5pm on this coming Monday night to start our vacation (we love Florida and we're going to the parks for a week in Orlando and then heading out to Port Canavaral for a cruise to the Eastern Caribbean leaving on Saturday the 29th). We have absolutely no hurricane experience and were wondering if we should consider cancelling our plans in the Orlando area if the hurricane looks to go through that area over the weekend (or later)?? Our thoughts and prayers are with everybody in Florida and I know these questions are trivial compared to trying to make plans regarding where you live. Any thoughts anyone has would be greatly appreciated.
Hello,
Ah - your plans will be dictated by , no doubt. To what extent, don't cancel any plans just yet; just be aware that there is still a strong likelihood that the area will suffer an impact. You're just going to have to watch the bulletins and keep tuned in; take it day by day.. Believe me, one way or the other you will know if you pay attention.
FYY: There was nicely converging guidnace prior to this morning's output by the models, and this is throwing a thorn in cushy seat of optimism we had been gathering since this time yesterday. Traditionally, when the model do something very off pattern and erratic all at once the output is considered dubious. More times than not the next run will be similar to the more consistent appeal of the priors...
Cannot at this time ascertain whether that 'will' be the case this time.. But, sufficed to say, Orlando area is still no where near out of risk!
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ZooKeeper
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 24
Loc: Live in Chiefland & work in Ce...
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Come on down! It'll all be over with except for the aftermath and cleanup by then. Most of the parks will only close for the one day unless there is major damage and the weather has been beautiful this month otherwise. 
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The storm that began a lifelong facination: Donna 1960 (Eyewall)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
I t really seems like the models caught some kind of data bochulisim on the 12Z run. Either we had some bad data ingested or something wacky is going on. I will be interested to see the 0Z runs to see what happens. The is going to "infect" a lot of other models, including . If the same things happen at 0Z, I will start to wonder what is up.
Exactly! ...Need more guidance before establishing trends and lowering guard; but the astute users of this site definitely already know that!
KUTGW.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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000
URNT11 KNHC 191844
97779 18404 40161 84718 30500 30048 10088 /3075
RMK AF300 0824A OB 15
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 55
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ahhh rotary engines....the only problem about this is that nobody told that we were supposed to conserve fuel  rotary engines are much more fuel-hungry than our piston-engines.
Quote:
To discover the cause, look at man-made trochoidal oscillations. The Rotary engine is a brilliant example. The eccentric shaft roates around a fixed point (with the rotors on an offset lobe) and forces the rotor around it in a dual-oval pattern.
http://auto.howstuffworks.com/rotary-engine8.htm
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Funny, my 1.1 Liter 85 12A rotary engine gets 28mph highway and 21 in town unless I'm dogging it... It also puts out 180 HP naturally aspirated.
Let me guess, rotary engines need to be replaced every 50,000 miles too, eh? 
Yeah - send me PMs and I'll teach you all about the modern rotary and what it can do for you.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
To discover the cause, look at man-made trochoidal oscillations. The Rotary engine is a brilliant example. The eccentric shaft roates around a fixed point (with the rotors on an offset lobe) and forces the rotor around it in a dual-oval pattern.
http://auto.howstuffworks.com/rotary-engine8.htm
Perhaps...the mass discontinuity and balast approach may work for hurricanes too - i'm just wondering if a refereed paper lurks out there..
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 55
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Quote:
Yeah - send me PMs and I'll teach you all about the modern rotary and what it can do for you.
- anonymous used-car salesman, Peoria, IL, 1992
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Could the shift in the models be a result of data from the P4 getting fed to the computers ?
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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I believe that we'll start to see conditions very favorable for another round of intensification later this evening, and continuing for about 24 hours more after that, as far as considering water temps. I believe shear is going to remain favorable for at least another 24-36 hours. Since an is likely, it will be interesting to see how this plays out. s seem to take about 24 hours to complete and some hours after that to stabilize. Given these assumptions, we may be looking at interesting numbers again late Thursday night / early Friday morning.
Recon is starting the next pass (roughly SE to NW).
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/f7_8_0.html
take a look at the ridge building in from texas to south carolina. seems to be blocking out that low that was in l.a. a few days ago and started moving eastward. the southern end of that trough that was supposed to sweep across is no more.
and with the pirouettes that decided to execute today, the models are probably well off from each other due to the inconsistant measurements taken by us. i think someone stated that the latest vortex message said wildly different speeds depending on if you were on the west or east side of the mean boundary layer -- well, that "appears" to be like that probably because the pirouettes were in motion and you would have probably seen (if you were able to measure both sides of the boundary layer in real-time) two wind speeds which were moving in opposite directions at all times going up and down as did her piroueettes. Quote:
...Interesting imagery there ....um "Funky"
Anyway, notice the drier air the comes into existence as the day progresses, over southern Georgia/N Fl/S AL..etc. There is a nice pinwheel tumbling out of the rockies and this is no doubt temporarily augmenting heights over said locations, which is of course going to intensify the ridge and cause more subsidence to take place...
This may be a transient effect however, where it will diminish as the trailing aspects of the trough begin to incur upon the nw Gulf and then eastward...
Wild hypothesis: perhaps this erratic 12Z guidance is related somehow...
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Convergence
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 35
Loc: Ellicott City, Maryland
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Forget the microwave data- it would appear that the outer eyewall is discernable on vis. now. At least, I think that's what I'm seeing.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
Could the shift in the models be a result of data from the P4 getting fed to the computers ?
Please elaborate.... in other words, I wasn't aware they ran any special missions other than what took place overnight.
Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Oct 19 2005 03:43 PM)
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