dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 73
Loc: UK
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I believe that is going to remain stationary for a time while she goes through the .
I think that during this period she will lose some of her energy and that, by the 11pm,
we'll see her as a cat4 150mph hurricane.
My reasoning : she will be stationary for some time over somewhat cooler SST's with lower convection.
I believe that will suffer from inertia as she tries to get moving again, exacerbated by the ridging
directly to her west.
These are purely my observations over the last 12 hours. I have not looked at any models.
Since I am new to this and still learning the ropes I would welcome any comments, good or bad.
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Anyone hearing about a Press Conf @ 4:45 to discuss the possibility of a stall by ?
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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komi
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 43
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OK guys, can someone tell me, to go in Okeechobe for fishing or not .. .(just joking)
Interesting thing happen with those computer models ... Dunno what to think, who is more confused now ...
I think all we will get some idea tomorrow morning what is on the way, and on whos way ..
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
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Wilma is still moving, and still on track with plots for now anyways. I think the models got fed some bad data, or didn't know how to handle oscillating all over the place. Eyewall replacement cycle is underway and you can clearly see it on visible sat imagery.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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Quote:
I believe that is going to remain stationary for a time while she goes through the .
I think that during this period she will lose some of her energy and that, by the 11pm,
we'll see her as a cat4 150mph hurricane.
My reasoning : she will be stationary for some time over somewhat cooler SST's with lower convection.
I believe that will suffer from inertia as she tries to get moving again, exacerbated by the ridging
directly to her west.
These are purely my observations over the last 12 hours. I have not looked at any models.
Since I am new to this and still learning the ropes I would welcome any comments, good or bad.
Hi,
Actually, the depth of warm water in her area is still deep enough to sufficiently maintain the prior intensity.. It's more likely she's entered an Eyewall Replacement Cycle and this appears to be the primary cause for weakening trend... I wouldn't be surprised either if she's a cat-4 by the 11pm advisory, perhaps even 8... Whether she returns to cat 5 there after will probably be a race between subtle break down in her current awesome u/a structure vs the rate of contraction of her new eyewall - currently developing and plainly discernable on both microw and vis imagery.
As to stationary thinking, she is actually not really stationary. Her last advisory had her moving wnw at 7mph - granted, not in any hurry.
I'm not really sure what you mean by 'suffer from inertia'.
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rmcinorlando
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 14
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I was just going to ask for opinions on what was going on....the site has gotten a little quiet since the latest computer models came out. Can we get some of the mets to comment on what they think is going on? I am supposed to have someone come to Orlando from Tallahassee for an interview on Saturday and I don't know what to tell her! I was all set to cancel until I saw the and BAMM model updates.
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iuhoosiers
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 16
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Hey!! do you guys think that now has A BETTER chance of just stalling out in the yucatan as some of the most recent models are suggesting?? Please feed me some info cause i don't know whether to leave FL and go on a trip i had planned a month ago
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Could the shift in the models be a result of data from the P4 getting fed to the computers ?
You bring up a good point.
Recon data shows 149kt max flt winds in NW quad (corrected).
Vortex 141kt in S quad, concentric eyewalls at 5 & 10 miles, pressure still 892.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Wed Oct 19 2005 08:31 PM)
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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As it relates to intertia, a storm doesnt really suffer intertia from starts and stops. I agree with the concept of a moving car and stop and go, where you get a whip lash effect, but it never comes to a really comes to an abrupt hault. I have seen eye walls become displaced, but usually motion is only one part of the scenario.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Quote:
As it relates to intertia, a storm doesnt really suffer intertia from starts and stops. I agree with the concept of a moving car and stop and go, where you get a whip lash effect, but it never comes to a really comes to an abrupt hault. I have seen eye walls become displaced, but usually motion is only one part of the scenario.
...i'm aware of that...
that's why i was wondering what the individual meant...
i like the analogy of hurricanes are like logs in a river...
suppose you place a light weight log on the banks of a moving river and give it a shove out into the current...after some interval of time, the log's direction from the shove begins to yield to the perpedicular motion of the water; the result, if you plot the change on a two dimensional surface it makes a curved motion.
if you take an even heavier log and shove it into the same river (having the same rate of perpendicular fluid flow) the heavier log will have more momentum and thus be carried farther out into the current before it begins to yield to the perpendicular flow. a graphical presentation of its rate of change in direction will be a slower acceleration.
by the coincidence the analogy works in that strong hurricanes have more resistence to direction changes in the steering field because they can 'create their own environment' (not my words). they too have a slower accelaration.
come to think of it...could be a partial reason for the erratic 12Z guidance, becuase the initial trigger for pulling up may no longer be sufficient to doing the deed, and she therefore is getting left behind... if so, fascinating feed-back scenario!
Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Oct 19 2005 08:25 PM)
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nicolew
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL
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Yep - on his hourly updates here in Miami, Bryan Norcross has been mentioning the 4:45 news conference with Max Mayfield at the but hasn't said the purpose. All the stations here in Miami will be cutting in to broadcast it live - and they're also saying that there will be a mandatory evacuation for all Keys residents starting at noon tomorrow. College football games (the Miami game in particular) have been cancelled for Saturday and Max Mayfield made a comment during his press conference just before noon today that his daughter is Homecoming princess this year and he told her her dance on Saturday would likely be cancelled.
How long of a stall and delay in arrival do you think will happen?
Quote:
Anyone hearing about a Press Conf @ 4:45 to discuss the possibility of a stall by ?
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Alta888
Registered User
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HI MIKEC,
FORGIVE ME FOR BEING A TOTAL IDIOT....BUT, WHAT DO THE INTITIALS STAND FOR, FOR THE COMPUTER MODELS GIVEN ON THE COMPOSITE COMPUTER MODELS TRACK MAP ON ? I'M HERE IN GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI WITH A BIG DISASTER RELIEF TEAM AND I DON'T REALLY WANT TO NOW GO BACK HOME AND HAVE TO HANDLE A DISASTER THERE. KNOW WHAT I MEAN? I'M FROM THE NATURE COAST, JUST NORTH OF CRYSTAL RIVER. WHATDOYATHINK? DO I REALLY HAVE TO GO HOME? OR WHAT?
THX, ALTA888
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DrewC
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Auburndale, FL
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After looking at the (and related ), it appears that they are starting to respond to the non-merging of the lows that were over CA and AK. (The ones that Colleen and Genesis were talking about last night). It was assumed that if they did not merge that the 1st low would turn more polewise and pull on a more northward track. It appears that the has instead decided that without them merging, and with getting stronger and not moving north fast enough, that the trough won't get deep enough into the gulf to influence . This causes her to drift over the Yucatan until the trough pushes further south (across Florida), catching her on the tail-end and pulling her east across Cuba. I don't know that I buy it, but as the models show, anything is still possible at this point.
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rmcinorlando
Verified CFHC User
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Ok, it just keeps getting stranger.....weird model runs, a news conference from , mandatory evacuations in the Keys (even though according to new model runs, is supposed to stall),....I don't know about everyone else but I AM GETTING MORE CONFUSED. Usually the closer the storm gets, the more accurate the information. What the heck is going on?
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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I do not think they will announce a stall. This is the first time we have seen this stall scenario and it wouldnt be prudent to do that. has always been concerned about people not taking the storm seriously and also in being vigalant.
I think he is going to just report in and let people know all across the pennisula that they need to keep their guard up. Watch the storm, prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Vortex Data Message
000
URNT12 KNHC 192017
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/19:56:20Z
B. 17 deg 36 min N
083 deg 36 min W
C. 700 mb 2152 m
D. 65 kt
E. 122 deg 010 nm
F. 285 deg 141 kt
G. 201 deg 002 nm
H. 892 mb
I. 12 C/ 3059 m
J. 19 C/ 3051 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO5-10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0824A OB 18
MAX FL WIND 141 KT S QUAD 19:52:00 Z
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Met in Tampa now saying that possibly will take a similar Mitch run, (((((not a given but a possibility)))), not making it to Fl,
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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sara33
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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Anyone know how accurate LBAR has been this year and why it is so different from the other models
Thanks in advance
Christine
St. Petersburg, FL 
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The LBAR is a very old model and is not considered to be a reliable model by today's standards.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Vortex max flt winds 141kt in S quad, concentric eyewalls at 5 & 10 miles, pressure still 892, temp diff 7deg.
ERC is beginning.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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