Lance Wilson
Verified CFHC User
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LIstening to MSNBC, the MET there seems to think the Press Conference may just be to explain the model differences and that this is normal. May not see any major changes at all. Will see in about 10 minutes.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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check out this lapse rate:
I. 12 C/ 3059 m
J. 19 C/ 3051 m
i don't know how uniform that is around the storm thermodynamics but that's.....that's impressive. 26+' and your temperature plummets 8C!
Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Oct 19 2005 08:47 PM)
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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OK, 18Z run is further northj, staying just offshore of NE Yucatan, then nudges eastward. 
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Lance Wilson
Verified CFHC User
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Quote:
check out this lapse rate:
I. 12 C/ 3059 m
J. 19 C/ 3051 m
What's that mean?
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tpratch
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Loc: Maryland
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My understanding of the "oops" part of the 2pm was that one of the models ingested bad data and it's affecting the models that build off of it (in part or total).
Is Clark around here hiding with extra insight?
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rmcinorlando
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I think that everyone is just holding their breath until after the news conference and the 5:00 discussion and new track comes out.
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: UK
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Thanks Tip and Lake Toho, that's just what I was looking for, a bit of constructive feedback.
And, yes, Toho hit the nail on the head when I mentioned inertia, didn't realise that Tropical Cyclones weren't affected by it. Great stuff..
--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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tashina
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Loc: Austin, TX
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CNN will be going to the press conference as soon as it starts.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Can we get the new conference on line??
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Quote:
Quote:
check out this lapse rate:
I. 12 C/ 3059 m
J. 19 C/ 3051 m
What's that mean?
short and skinny...lapse rate: 'rate of change of temperature with height'
(I. 12 C/ 3059 m) - (J. 19 C/ 3051 m) = 7C in 8 meters... Or in none si terms, about 12F in just 26ft!
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Kattbyrde
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Anyone have a link to listen online to the press conference, since I'm still at work?
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swimaway19
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
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5 pm advisory: 160 mph, 892mb, WNW @ 6 , it looks like it doesn't change the track much from before
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Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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That temperature difference is more reflective of the horizontal rather than vertical change in temperature, since one reading is taken in the eye (where it is warmer), while the other is the max temp found in the eyewall. Stronger storms will have larger differences between eye and eyewall temperatures.
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hurricanechantel
Registered User
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Hi All--
I'm new to this forum but live near Tampa and have been tracking extensively the past few days. I've been a weather junkie for years. One of my favorite sites is Weather Underground... what do you all think of the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters??
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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http://ccri.eonstreams.com/ccri_fl_tampa_wfla_am.asf
bottom line, more uncertainies....
the , which Max said is his best hurricane model has changed alot since this morning, slowed the motion down... and that has the concerned...
Edited by Frank P (Wed Oct 19 2005 08:54 PM)
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Lance Wilson
Verified CFHC User
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Slowed down the approach, that is about it. Trying to figure out the change in models and wanted to announce why.
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
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When is the next run of the ?
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Quote:
That temperature difference is more reflective of the horizontal rather than vertical change in temperature, since one reading is taken in the eye (where it is warmer), while the other is the max temp found in the eyewall. Stronger storms will have larger differences between eye and eyewall temperatures.
true, good point!
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komi
Weather Watcher
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what i think, is too dangerous storm to just say, this will miss florida ..
they probably want people prepared, but something is changed .. HNC moved little on south ...
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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the 7C eyewall temp diff is much lower than this AM when it was 12C or more.
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