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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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tashina
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Loc: Austin, TX
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: hurricanechantel]
      #59595 - Wed Oct 19 2005 05:00 PM

I can't say enough good about Max and the NHC. You really get the idea from watching the press conference that he is doing his absolute best to give you as much information as he can ina very understandable way. He is well organized and well informed. There is so much beaurocracy in the world these days; I just thing Max cuts through it all and I really appreciate his (and the whole NHC's) efforts. And thanks to all the mets here as well.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Frank P]
      #59596 - Wed Oct 19 2005 05:02 PM

Wilma has ceased its wobbling and basically come to a dead stop in the last hour, which could be indicative of the organizational changes it seems to be attempting. The satellite presentation has stablized for the time being, after getting worse for awhile. It's still hanging in there as a cat 5 storm for now. Looks like the intensity forecast weakens it in the short term to 135 knots, then brings it back up to 145 knotsby 24-36 hours, before more steady weakening is forecast until landfall. Obviously, the intensity forecast has taken somewhat of a backseat to the track forecast for the time being.

The latest advisory indicates that hurricane force winds are now up to 60 miles from the center. Based on the recon data, that may be a little misleading... that is more due to the outer wind maximum becoming more intense. Between the inner eyewall and the outer wind max, hurricane-force winds may not be present.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Wed Oct 19 2005 05:06 PM)


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gk
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Loc: Flagler Beach, FL
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #59597 - Wed Oct 19 2005 05:02 PM

Question to anyone. Why has the LBAR Model consistantly shown a landfall farther to the north than any other model? This consistancy has last through the last 4 or 5 runs.

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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: gk]
      #59598 - Wed Oct 19 2005 05:07 PM

Isn't the LBAR a statistical model? If so, it is doing that because it is only projecting the norm for storms like Wilma, which usualy track into the state. It doesn’t care about the surrounding atmosphere like its dynamic, baroclinic brethren… only history. Sometimes it does surprisingly well, actually.

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Wed Oct 19 2005 05:14 PM)


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Steeler Fan
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 13
Loc: Sarasota, FL
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: tashina]
      #59599 - Wed Oct 19 2005 05:08 PM

Well, Max just concluded his press conference and basically, they are doing what they can to keep up with the changes this storm has presented them, but as was stressed...NO ONE IN THE CONE SHOULD LET THEIR GUARD DOWN...it is unfortunate that the media keeps pushing for such difinitive answers. Can you imagine the H... that the NHC would catch if they did allude to a total miss of FL at this point and it turned out the other way?!?

--------------------
"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." - Aristotle


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komi
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #59600 - Wed Oct 19 2005 05:10 PM

Quote:

The LBAR is a very old model and is not considered to be a reliable model by today's standards.




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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: komi]
      #59602 - Wed Oct 19 2005 05:16 PM

I read the 5PM, it sounds like they're not sure what's going to happen. I guess a lot is riding on the next model run. Just looking for opinions, what happens if it keeps going further left like they're indicating. Does it just eventually run off into Mexico or does it wait for the next front to pick it up?

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gk
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Loc: Flagler Beach, FL
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Lysis]
      #59603 - Wed Oct 19 2005 05:16 PM

Thanks for the info... I'm not an expert but after reviewing the data, reading and listening but I am concerned about a track further to the north as the LBAR indicates. The system to the north does not appear to be dropping south. What do you think? If it does not come as far south as predicted than that will allow landfall further north, would it not?

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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Confused??? Id say so... [Re: komi]
      #59604 - Wed Oct 19 2005 05:16 PM

this is what im reading from the hillsborough county EOC website....

The Bottom Line is that Wilma is a direct threat to the Tampa Bay Area. There is still a great deal of uncertainty in the Track. If Wilma turns sooner, it will go south of the Tampa Bay Area. However, if it goes further north before it turns it could head directly for Tampa. The Good News is that most computer models are still showing Wilma turning early and coming ashore south of Tampa Bay . The Bad News is that even if it hits south of us, we can expect heavy downpours and tropical storm force winds. All concerned agencies should be finalizing plans and be prepared to respond on short notice, Supervisors should ensure that all essential employees are given time to get their families and property prepared as soon as possible so they will ready to perform their emergency assignments as needed.

Now why in the world would the EOC post that if in fact it wasnt goin to hit. Do they know something we dont??? Every news channel I have seen is saying totally opposite of the other...can someone help me understand why this is being said....thanks

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #59605 - Wed Oct 19 2005 05:20 PM

I think they cultivate the offbeat sense of humor at NHC, and I loved Franklin's way of addressing the craziness of the new model runs:

AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY.

THE GFDL SHOWING AN EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA

Also of note -- there are two outer eyewalls; not only the eyewall at 10nm, but also one at 45nm.


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: Confused??? Id say so... [Re: FlaMommy]
      #59606 - Wed Oct 19 2005 05:21 PM

Model disparity:

One model had crack for breakfast. It happened to be a fairly reliable model that never got into trouble before. While it's latching onto some features, the resulting lack of model consensus, where they used to get along so well, is causing the NHC to list their current track as "low confidence".

I expect that the path is probably a bit south of actual and the timing is in the air due to Wlima's decrease in forward speed.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Margie]
      #59607 - Wed Oct 19 2005 05:21 PM

Quote:

I think they cultivate the offbeat sense of humor at NHC, and I loved Franklin's way of addressing the craziness of the new model runs:

AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY.

THE GFDL SHOWING AN EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA




That did make me laugh!


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: komi]
      #59608 - Wed Oct 19 2005 05:21 PM

The 18Z NOGAPS (only through 72 hours so far) appears to be still moving this storm as before. Around same position too, maybe hinting at slightly more northerly track but still moving the storm.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #59609 - Wed Oct 19 2005 05:24 PM

Quote:

The 18Z NOGAPS (only through 72 hours so far) appears to be still moving this storm as before. Around same position too, maybe hinting at slightly more northerly track but still moving the storm.




18z NOGAPS?
- wow , u guys really have your resources..
would you be so kind as to provide that url


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MadDog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 51
Loc: DeBary, Florida
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #59610 - Wed Oct 19 2005 05:24 PM

What would make the GFDL go so radical? Do we know what the biggest affector of the change was? I am just trying to understand what happened, so I can get a feel for if there will be a corrective run in the a.m. for the GFDL or if we will get more of the same.

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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #59611 - Wed Oct 19 2005 05:28 PM

Yeah, I agree that the GFS is officially HOSED this run. I'll buy the NOGAPS solution that keeps the storm moving. It is starting to putter to the NW very slowly, but I expect this to increase during the next 24 hours. I was initially going to post Storm Cancel....for Florida. But I believe this one model is hosing up the Lot, and the NOGAPS, EC, UKMET and CMC all keep it moving. BTW Anyone have a link to the 12Z EC? I'm stuck at work right now.

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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
Re: Confused??? Id say so... [Re: FlaMommy]
      #59612 - Wed Oct 19 2005 05:28 PM

The reality here is that there is a great deal of uncertainty in this forecast right now.

The two lows did NOT merge, as I had expected.

What the GFS, and the models which init off it picked up from this, was that the trough would not amplify enough to pick up Wilma and bring her north. That leaves her "twisting in the wind" so to speak, and thus you get the solution that the model has put forward - a storm that hits the Yucatan and then has the steering field collapse, meandering towards the usual direction (east and somewhat north) more due to atmospheric friction than anything else.

Is that right? Don't know. I certainly don't buy it YET, because the rest of the met guidance I'm seeing, that is not storm related, still shows an amplified trough pushing into the northern gulf tomorrow. If it arrives and is amplified as expected, and moves to the east as you'd expect it to, it should pick the storm up and you'd get the solution I put forward last evening - which is north of the official track but still well within the cone.

If, on the other hand, the bottom of that trough "dies" for lack of amplitude, then you don't get the height falls over the northern gulf and the SE states, and Wilma gets "left behind". Then the GFDL solution looks reasonable.

I'm not buying that shift yet. Certainly there's no "vast model support" for something that huge. Its entirely possible that the GFS got bad data - with the radical wobbling that this storm's eye has done, its possible that some bad samples went into the mix, and that you got the "GIGO" (garbage in, garbage out!) scenario.

I want to see at least another 12 hours of WV imagery and some more "actual" (rather than prognosticated) views of the 850mb and 500mb steering levels. If they support the trough not having the amplitude originally forecast, then you should see the models follow along - otherwise, I suspect you'll see the GFS/GFDL and related models shift BACK, and quite possibly northward of the official track.

Right now I still like my previous scenario, but of course that can change - the issue is how far down into the gulf will that trough dive, and will the amplitude of it, along with the height falls forward of it, support the motion of the storm originally prognosticated.

If not, then we have a meandering cyclone over by the Yucatan until the next feature establishes a steering environment - a weakness - into which it will move.

It would be unwise to let your guard down..... this storm seems destined to pull a surprise on someone - certainly it has done so thus far with the rapid strengthening that it underwent last night..


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #59614 - Wed Oct 19 2005 05:29 PM

Here is the link to FNMOC Site. Click on link: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/logout.do?requestId=1126908274163.1786.1 Then click on Public Charts, and I use the #10 map in this case (Tropical Atlantic). The rest is self explanatory, they also have archived NOGAPS runs..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #59615 - Wed Oct 19 2005 05:29 PM

The 12Z NOGAPS did not drink the koolaid. It is independent of the GFS. I will have to see some consistency in the GFS related models before I start drinking what they ae drinking. If they still are the same after the 0Z runs, I will start to take them seriously. That was just too radical a change for me not to question the data integrity or the way the model handled what it got.

--------------------
Jim


Edited by Rasvar (Wed Oct 19 2005 05:33 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #59616 - Wed Oct 19 2005 05:30 PM

Couple of things...

1) That isn't a true vertical lapse rate -- it's the temperature differential inside and outside of the eye, a measure of how strong the storm is. Generally, the greater the difference between the two, the more efficient the heating aloft within the eye is and thus the stronger the storm. Rita had a differential of something like 17C at its peak intensity; Wilma didn't quite get there. Maximum efficiency would be for the lower number to plummet while the eye temperature reaches that of the SSTs...generally we don't expect that and only expect about 30% efficiency from most storms.

2) Microwave data for eyewall replacement cycles -- best bet is the 85GHz products, I find...look for "moat" regions outside/away from the center with banding features forming into curved/circular shapes just outside of that. That tends to be a pretty good indicator of an eyewall cycle.

Would not be surprised to see some reintensification after this eyewall cycle is done...some theories are being floated out there about the trochoidal oscillations being a function of the inner eyewall rotating about the outer eyewall. They are with merit, but the exact cause is unclear. I prefer to think of the "storm spinning like a top" analogy -- spin a top and and let it move fast down a path and it'll wobble/spin some. Nevertheless, cool to watch.


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