Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
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Quote:
i think u mean ukmet dont you?
cmc doesnt run 12Z out past 72 hrs i dont think so it is hard to tell where it will be past then
Yes the 12Z 72 Hr but its fairly easy to see where they have it going in 96 hrs give or take a few miles.
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Lance Wilson
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
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Quote:
No its moved alot south as it was the north outliner and was above tampa and now about 100 miles south this run.
Does it show a stall like the ?
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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
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I want the link for the gaps 120 as mine still only goes 72 hrs out....And i have no idea about a stall until i can get the link.
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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BloodStar - I think HankFrank mentioned something way back a couple days & hundreds of posts ago about something popping up in that general vicinity "later in the month" who knows....lets hope is doesn't like mousakkas! 
Lots of hemming & hawing going on here as to the eventual whereabouts of 's arrival. Here are some of my unsolicited opinions...why, at this time (or any other ) is there any reason to doubt the experience /expertise/predictions of the consumate professionals at ? I don't know why some of us here seem to think we've got a leg up on them? It's confounding at times. The bottom line is this: you cannot read too much into ANYTHING, not a wobble, not a model run, not a single sentence from a 3 paragraph discussion. I think it boils down to everyone's frustration at not being able to pinpoint what Mother Nature is going to ultimately do. That being said, it is the 's responsibility to keep the public informed not panicked . Therefore, I don't think (and I could be wrong) you'll ever hear Max Mayfield or anyone else for that matter single out any one town or city (until ofcourse it's as the storm is landfalling) It's always general (ie; SW Florida/Central Florida on south, etc, etc...) Therefore the or NWS statements that may mention "insert your town name here" does not mean your doomed. They are simply imparting information NOT insinuations. Until this storm makes its turn and has its brush with or landfall with the Yucatan Penninsula, all is up in the air.
***steps off of soapbox now***
geesh, sorry about that...anywho, I don't see her making "drastic" changes and here's why:
www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/gulfvismovie.html
So far, most of what they've (NOAA/NHC) been basing their predictions on is coming slowly to fruition. That imagery is pretty powerful.
Edited by native (Thu Oct 20 2005 01:14 PM)
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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I go away on holidays and look what happens. 
I am not at home so I do not have my monster list of links, but does anyone have a good link to the surface temps over the projected path where is heading north of Cuba?
On a personal note, I have friends who are in cancun on business. I notice that alot of people tend to minimize/dismiss damage to areas outside of the USA(Cuba/Mexico/Carribean etc etc). A Category 4 hurricane is about to flatten a good portion of poor/heavily populated area in mexico and then probably Cuba. Lets all send some prayers out for those people who can't afford insurance/emergency infrastructure in those countries(even if it was offered).
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
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Looks to me like 's cracking up, eye's disappeared...well, I hope she is.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Thanks, Pam...but what chart do I click on to see it loop?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Can anyone tell me whether there is any risk of a storm surge for the Florida *East* coast when leaves the peninsula after crossing it?
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
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can i get this 120 hr link please?
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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well it may be slowly turning nw now. hard to tell with the old inner eye decaying and the new broad eye defining itself. official now has it landfalling at cozumel island as a 5, crossing the cancun area, and swinging northeast from there to a sunday landfall in florida. a lot of the newer runs have it crossing even later. 12Z has the separate coastal storm off the mid atlantic drawing the 500mb trough further west over the northeast, with a future track out to sea. has something similar, so the consensus shift back to the right earlier this morning is a good thing. the threat to the northeast appears to be dwindling... they may have to contend with a coastal low, but that's nothing compared to what would do to them.
no model support for it but there's actually a decent feature east of the windward islands that may be developing a surface low. no real model support (fair upper pattern for the next 2-3 days but no pressure falls shown), but if it keeps firing convection like that something may sneak up on the islands. not very probable. most of the models show this feature turning nw and curving out to sea ahead of .
wave behind it will have an even stronger subtropical ridge with a more westward extent.. and it should be in the western caribbean in about a week with supportive conditions aloft and synoptically induced pressure falls from a strong high in place to the north. quite possible this feature will develop.
also of interest is how amplified the nao negative pattern is remaining in the extended period. the strong block persisting over northeast canada and greenland will eventually cause some more drastic arctic outbreaks as we get deeper into the fall.. based on the pattern a coastal storm with inland early snows and a hard freeze down to the gulf coast may be in order before veterans day. a tropical system timed correctly with this pattern could ride the coast, but with 's guidance shifting back offshore the sketchy likelihood of such a thing is well-illustrated.
HF 1724z20october
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/chart.do?loop=true&requestId=1129744754535.1918.3
try this
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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newwatcher, you need to register/create an account to view those pictures.
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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no u dont, under that is where you click on it, it says something like public access click that
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
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Don't worry about what people think when you're putting up shutters etc. I got some comments last year putting up plywood before .. "it's only a cat 1" "You must be new to FL" etc.etc.
Much better to secure your property now so you can worry about yourself and family if the storm heads in your direction. Complacency is much worse than overpreperation. As long as you're in the cone you might as well prepare.
Oh and a piece of advice.. If you have a satellite dish and/or conventional TV antenna you may want to take those down at some point. They don't do well in winds and you'll appreciate having them after the storm passes. For my dish was bent beyond repair and my antenna flew away never to be seen again. Once caveat, satellite dishes need to be "peaked" for reception which takes some knowledge so consider that before taking it down . Good forum for satellite info
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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Goodness Hank, a hard freeze down to the gulf??  What's in store next here? Somehow, sadly enough with this insane season, an earthquake in the Bahamas wouldn't make me blink twice! 
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raw
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 2
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Everything in the way of direction seems fairly steady to me, but I am of the thinking that it will go a little farther north than presently being depicted. It seems to me that the steering currents at all levels as well as the movement of the troph will carry her steadily on a course north of the present prediction. I have seen no real change in direction or speed, but the atmosphere just looks like it will carry her farther west and north. :?:
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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Quote:
12Z has the separate coastal storm off the mid atlantic drawing the 500mb trough further west over the northeast, with a future track out to sea. has something similar, so the consensus shift back to the right earlier this morning is a good thing. HF 1724z20october
Do you have a link to the 12Z run? Site I usually go to still has the 06Z run up for .
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Ormond Suzie
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 28
Loc: Ormond Beach, Florida
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Here's a link that I particularily like for updated, animated model runs - it has , , , among others:
Experimental forecast- Tropical Cyclone Genesis
(in case this doesn't show, here's the url http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
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Mayor of Moronia
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Loc: Bayonet Point, Pasco County
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Not necessarily. Hurricane location is not the result of a coin flip or toss of the dice. Hurricanes are dynamic systems. And while it is a challenge to predict future locations with certainty, you can predict future location with some degree of confidence. Because even dynamic systems have parameters that confine the system within boundaries....a bathtub drain is a good example. Or my driveway. When I wash my car I'm pretty confident the water isnt going to flow into my garage or my neighbor's garage but I'm not always confident the water will flow into the street gutter. The other thing is climate. Storms tend to collide with southwest Florida this time of year. Not always, but much of the time.
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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this is the link you need, give the frames a minute to load.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/chart.do?loop=true&requestId=1129744754535.1913.7
I didn't need to create an account for this in order to view it
If need be go to the front page and click public charts
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/index.jsp
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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