F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 211 (Idalia) , Major: 211 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 211 (Idalia) Major: 211 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | (show all)
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Models [Re: willw]
      #59809 - Wed Oct 19 2005 10:43 PM

Its the same Will...nothing has changed...........................

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
dkpcb
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 6
Loc: Panama City Beach Florida
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: MikeC]
      #59810 - Wed Oct 19 2005 10:43 PM

This is a link to on IR Satellite animation of Wilma.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/animir.html

DK


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
abyrd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 62
Loc: apopka
Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion [Re: Hugh]
      #59813 - Wed Oct 19 2005 10:44 PM

The strike probabilities decreased for Ft. Myers and Naples by 1 percentage pt, but remained the same for Marco Island (7), Key West (9) and Tampa (5). The NHC also added the entire eastern seaboard to the wind probability table with a chance of tropical storm for winds all the way to Canada.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion [Re: Hugh]
      #59814 - Wed Oct 19 2005 10:44 PM

Does that forecast track re-verify what the GFDL was showing earlier today? If it's ON the East Coast of Florida, than landfall appears to be on track with the 11am advisory. Hm.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
willw
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion [Re: Colleen A.]
      #59816 - Wed Oct 19 2005 10:48 PM

well to be fair
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_5day.html

and
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_forecast.asp

i guess i see what it is, so yeah same. Not further north... But the fact that they expect it to be THAT sharp is kinda far fetched imo, i don't think of a ENE as it suggests.. i dunno though we'll see

Edited by willw (Wed Oct 19 2005 10:49 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
gk
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Loc: Flagler Beach, FL
Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion [Re: Hugh]
      #59818 - Wed Oct 19 2005 10:52 PM

Call me unexperienced but after reviewing the lastest model tracks and water vapor loops over the US I see Wilma landfalling near Tampa and exiting neat St Augustine, closer to the LBAR. I know I was told earlier the the LBAR is a statistical model and is not reliable. My question is why are they still using it. The steering currents from the north are not looking like they are dipping south as predicted. I know there are other things I do not understand, but sometimes things are not as complicated as some may think. What is the possibility that I am right?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Landfall suggestions? [Re: Colleen A.]
      #59819 - Wed Oct 19 2005 10:53 PM

Colleen, I'm with you on that thought and theory. The GFS still has about 1.5-2 hours before the data run is completed. I think the next GFDL run at 06Z (2AM EDT) should include ANY possible changes.

An afterthought about Jim Cantore and landfall. Jim is very mobile. Even with a camera and Satellite truck. More mobile than most families. So please don't count on any specific point being the Landfall point.

Jim was 40 miles East of Katrina's landfall point. I highly suspect that was an intentional mislocation, due to Katrina's surge effects.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion [Re: willw]
      #59821 - Wed Oct 19 2005 10:55 PM

Everyone, just to lighten the mood, not sure if anyone has heard this. Click on the link

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFDL_18z/ghmloop.html

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion [Re: gk]
      #59822 - Wed Oct 19 2005 10:57 PM

You could very well be right, but I hope not. Tampa Bay is not off the hook on this at all.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
abyrd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 62
Loc: apopka
Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion [Re: MichaelA]
      #59824 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:01 PM

New thread on the main page.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Landfall suggestions? [Re: danielw]
      #59825 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:01 PM

Appears that the drier air is really getting sucked in at this point and inhibiting sustained intensity.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Models [Re: scottsvb]
      #59826 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:02 PM

The track is basically the same, but the time frame has changed to much later. Landfall Sunday AM rather than Saturday PM.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
komi
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
Re: Landfall suggestions? [Re: danielw]
      #59828 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:03 PM

I think, in this moment any landfall suggestion is just a wild guess ... Thay talking about moving on NE in next 24-36 hours, and all we know to this models will change several times before lanfall ... Like moderator says .. everyone south from Tampa should be ready, but ,making prediction in this moment just make people more nervous then they should be - yet ..

Possible lanfall on Yucatan will change cat and landfall position too ..

NO ONE knows when Wilma will turn, and in what direction ...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
erauwx
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 15
Loc: Orlando, FL
new thread - see main page. [Re: komi]
      #59829 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:08 PM

just to let everyone know -- there is a new topic posted. see the main page

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 127 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 49486

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center