MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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10:30PM
Portions of the New Advisory are out. Track hasn't changed all that much future wise. STill predicting a high end Category 2 as it approaches Florida. Some models are showing more restrengthening before hitting the shear, so a 3 isn't out of the question. But it could weaken still as well. The doesn't do very well with intensity forecasts.
Winds are down to 140MPH.
9:30PM
Model trends are moving more northward again with the latest and runs, but as stated before, until the system moves away from the Yucatan, it will be nearly impossible to pick a landfall point. Anyone in the cone of uncertainty needs to pay attention to the system.
The Cancun radar seems to have gone down. The mirror will continue to try to communicate with it, but it's very likely no new images will appear from it.
8:15PM
Wilma is north of Cozumel, and judging by recon reports is moving very slowly, more northward than anything at the moment. But it is over water this is likely a wobble and a more north northwesterly motion will occur soon.
The Florida keys are still asking nonresidents to leave, and will be considering mandatory evacuations for all tomorrow morning which they may implement later.
Original Update
Hurricane has made landfall in Cozumel and now will make landfall in mainland Mexico, it has slowed down during the day and may stay over the Yucatan for upwards of 24 hours. Weakening the storm, but devistating the resort towns along the area.
Larger shot of the above view
will likely emerge from the Yucatan as a weaker hurricane, have a slight chance to restrengthen (depends on how much the Yucatan takes out of it) and then hit conditions to weaken again as it gets pushed to the ea st.
Visible on satellite is the "wing" of clouds coming from the northeastern section of the storm, which is now flowing over Florida. This is a fairly good indicator of what direction the storm may take later. However it will be a while before it gains enough latitude for itself to be pushed eastward. Until the storm clears the Yucatan it is nearly pointless trying to pick any single landfall point.
More to come later on .
Elsewhere... The wave in the east Caribbean is showing signs of organization and may become a depression in day or two. Early models suggest it may turn north over some the of central islands in the Caribbean, but not affect the United States but we'll watch it as well. Hopefully it won't have much time to develop before approaching the islands.
Report Conditions from in your area here
Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.
(full size)
Image courtesy Weather.com Click here for full size image
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from Cozumel/Cancun (Includes Photos)
Stormcarib reports from the islands
Cancun Radar Animation (Flhurricane mirror) (Note: Radar hasn't sent a new image since 7:30 it will still continue to check, but the radar may be down due to )
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL
Lee County, FL
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.
Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is heading toward South Florida see some of his live streaming video and audio here
Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real )
Barometer Bob
WebCams
Royal Resorts Webcams in Cancun
The Royal Sands Animated WebCam (Flhurricane Mirrored)
Reply and let us know of other links.
Wilma
* NEW * Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of - Static Image
Wilma Microwave Imagery Animation
Floater Satellite with storm track overlays
Weather Underground Model Plots
cimss page
Wave 99L
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The last available Cancun radar image at 2137Z suggests that the outer wind max/eyewall was just barely south of Cancun at that time. As has continued to drift to the north, that feature may have already reached Cancun or will reach them at any time. Conditions could really go downhill there after that. Thankfully, the convection seems to have weakened somewhat in the northern half of the system based on the IR, but there is still some fierce weather impacting the coast up there.
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tpratch
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Loc: Maryland
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komi
Weather Watcher
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Firs effect from on central Florida ...
http://65.75.66.73/IMG_0820.JPG
http://65.75.66.73/IMG_0822.JPG
http://65.75.66.73/IMG_0824.JPG
http://65.75.66.73/IMG_0825.JPG
I took photos one hour ago
Looks more like Kansas .. 
Edited by komi (Fri Oct 21 2005 11:02 PM)
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Myles
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: SW FL
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From looking at sat images. The last 6 frames, or 3 hours, show about no movement. If anything she is creeping north ever so slightly. Doesn't look like she will bury herself in the Yucatan, but you never know, she could start moving west again.
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Lance Wilson
Verified CFHC User
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Quote:
From looking at sat images. The last 6 frames, or 3 hours, show about no movement. If anything she is creeping north ever so slightly. Doesn't look like she will bury herself in the Yucatan, but you never know, she could start moving west again.
The last hour she has gone 7 min north and 1 min east. (Comparing recon reports.) Still about 5 MPH or so I think.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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THere is a brave soul still uploading photos from Cancun at this link from StormCarib. The worst hasn't reached there yet.
I've posted the link in the main thread, but thought it beared mentioning here as well.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
From looking at sat images. The last 6 frames, or 3 hours, show about no movement. If anything she is creeping north ever so slightly. Doesn't look like she will bury herself in the Yucatan, but you never know, she could start moving west again.
The 2215z image shows just a HINT of movement due north to me. It's still possible that will never fully make landfall on the mainland (not likely, but possible)... She's been paralleling the coast inching northward for several hours now pretty much.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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komi
Weather Watcher
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Looks to me like eyewall is not that perfect like earlier ...
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/tropi...b-204N-867W.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Central Arkansas
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Quote:
From looking at sat images. The last 6 frames, or 3 hours, show about no movement. If anything she is creeping north ever so slightly. Doesn't look like she will bury herself in the Yucatan, but you never know, she could start moving west again.
Is it the cool front we are experiencing here in Arkansas that is supposed to turn this thing east? Someone please tell me exactly what is supposed to nudge this baby once it finally gets enough steam to "walk on through to the other side"?
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character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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If anything, I think there has been a slow northward drift. It also appears that the eye may be shrinking some on the most recent frames, so maybe it is going to try another after all. The 12Z UKMET was the only recent model that never made a full Yucatan landfall with , basically having it parallel the coast for 36 hours. That was an outlier, but it seems to be the only model solution that isn't already too far west in its track.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
THere is a brave soul still uploading photos from Cancun at this link from StormCarib. The worst hasn't reached there yet.
I've posted the link in the main thread, but thought it beared mentioning here as well.
My god... what is that guy THINKING???? Of course... these pictures are a good example of why NOT to go out during a category 4 hurricane. I wonder how long he'll be able to provide new images, though... not long I don't think.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Looks more NNW to me and extremely slow - nearly stationary.
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Michael
PWS
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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000
URNT12 KNHC 212322
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/23:11:00Z
B. 20 deg 34 min N
086 deg 45 min W
C. 700 mb 2474 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 222 deg 111 kt
G. 129 deg 031 nm
H. EXTRAP 930 mb
I. 9 C/ 3048 m
J. 17 C/ 3046 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C24
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1524A OB 31
MAX FL WIND 119 KT N QUAD 20:01:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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I think that is the one. Timing is the big issue now.
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Michael
PWS
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The latest recon fix is in the exact same location as the fix 90 minutes ago. Keep in mind, though, that there is some error involved in pinpointing the exact center.
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tpratch
Moderator
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Loc: Maryland
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Last 2 hours (90 minutes, really) does verify for a NNW heading.
The radar that was dead, back to life, dead again, is now back to life again (for now). I'll continue my hourly updates to this puppy so long as there is data to do so.
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Tracey
Verified CFHC User
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O.K., question, so what IF it doesn't come assure on the Yucatan, how will that impact the track and intesity? It looks very elongated to the north/northeast to me.
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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Quote:
If anything, I think there has been a slow northward drift. It also appears that the eye may be shrinking some on the most recent frames, so maybe it is going to try another after all. The 12Z UKMET was the only recent model that never made a full Yucatan landfall with , basically having it parallel the coast for 36 hours. That was an outlier, but it seems to be the only model solution that isn't already too far west in its track.
the farther north she makes the narrower the landmass so even if she comes inthere is less and less land to work with
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sara33
Weather Guru
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Loc: St. Pete,
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WOW Komi, Thanks for the photos. 
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