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Tropical Storm #Dolly Pulling North of Forecast. TS Winds Extend up to 115 Miles From Center. Flhurricane.com
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 439
Loc: Tampa
Re: posting rules [Re: Mayor of Moronia]
      #62296 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:30 PM

Looks to be as much as a northerly bump as the easterly bump preceding it

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62297 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:31 PM

What does "more tilt" mean?

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 68
Loc: St. Petersburg, FL
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Mayor of Moronia]
      #62298 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:31 PM

Today a shopper at WAL-MART told me Wilma is gonna collide with the" trough-thing" and split apart into a hurricane and a tropical storm.




Now you want to talk about wishcasting...thats just not possible as the trough and Wilma cannot interact to that degree. As you said earlier, Wilma has the front running back to GA, but that can't last long as that low over the Ohio valley is racing South which will provide "back up" and again force the what is now a warm front back South which will the revert it back into a cold front. If that makes sense

--------------------
Matt
Chase 22
Stormnet
TBW Skywarn Spotter


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62299 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:34 PM

The "tilt" noted in that last recon may be an indication that the shear is already beginning to affect the storm more than I would have thought, with the surface center slightly south of the flight-level center. Of course, that could also be an effect of eyewall reorganization.

The satellite presentation seems to be slowly improving and the pressure dropped 2 mb from the last recon fix. In the four recon fixes on the current mission, the storm has moved 36' N and 36' E (exactly NE) covering a period of 4 hours. Between individual recon fixes, there have been jogs to the ENE and NNE, but the longer term average motion has been NE.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2953
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Joshua]
      #62300 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:35 PM

Quote:


Actually, check NWS tonight for a new forecast. Ed Rappaport was just quoted on the local news as saying that, "the circulation is expanding." So, that means the TS force winds may extend out FURTHER than previously forecast.




Actually this is exactly what was forecasted, even before now, that it would expand. There's been much discussion in the discussions about Wilma transitioning into a extratropical mid-latitude type system. These have much more expanded wind fields. Nothing really should change at all with the forecast, because that's what its based upon now.

It's likely that Tampa really won't see much more than low end Tropical Storm winds, in a few squalls. The wind will be steady though there., but below tropical storm force for the most part. Orlando too fairly much the same, but slightly stronger winds, and of course stronger the further south and east you go. Roughly draw the line from the West Coast hurricane warning to the east coast hurricane warning to get a good idea where the high end tropical storm/hurricane force winds likely will be.



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Joshua
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 43
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: Here it comes! [Re: FireAng85]
      #62301 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:35 PM

Quote:

What does "more tilt" mean?




That just basically means that there is some upper-level shear coming from the GOM and blowing the cloud tops into the center. It's almost as it the "tops" are getting blown off the top of the clouds. This could just be temporary, but we'll see at 5.


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pincty
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 28
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Rdietch]
      #62302 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:36 PM

That's the same way I feel too. Check posts last night from amateur mets stating that the front wasn't going to make it and that Tampa could be in for a surprise. Even now when its tracking the way the NHC said it would, Tampa still comes up. Like I said yesterday, this is a hobby weather site. Trust the NHC....some good info can be learned on Flhurricane.com however some off the wall info must be disregarded. I realize the NHC makes errors too, but they are pros and their opinions should be trusted much more than housewives, accountants, teachers, cooks, etc. who make predictions on where a devastating hurricane will hit.

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Gabrialle
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 1
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Rasvar]
      #62303 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:36 PM

I have been watching this site since last years hurricanes, and very impressed with all the knowledge. I live in St. Cloud ( Osceola County ) anyone have any idea on how bad Wilma will effect me? Thank you in advance for any responses.

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zacker20
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 27
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Joshua]
      #62304 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:39 PM

Quote:

Quote:

The Tampa area will feel very little effects from Wilma. Trust me.




Actually, check NWS tonight for a new forecast.
I can GUARANTEE you...

Edit - you can't guaranteed ANYTHING unless you are God, which I assume you are not. In fact, the current Tampa forecast indicates wind speeds over 60 mph in the area.

Please keep your posts to facts otherwise post in the forecast lounge.

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Oct 23 2005 04:25 PM)


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 68
Loc: St. Petersburg, FL
Re: Here it comes! [Re: zacker20]
      #62305 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:39 PM

Quote:

The Tampa area will feel very little effects from Wilma. Trust me.




http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw

The NHC is disagreeing with you. They are predicting 44-47mph winds with 60mph gusts. I am just not seeing where you are getting you info from. I f the track shifts a mere 50 mi. N (about 1/2 degree in lattitude) that will significantly chage everybodies forcast. I don't think it's safe to say that anybody is in the clear as of yet

--------------------
Matt
Chase 22
Stormnet
TBW Skywarn Spotter

Edited by chase 22 (Sun Oct 23 2005 03:42 PM)


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Joshua
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 43
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: Here it comes! [Re: chase 22]
      #62306 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:41 PM

Quote:

Quote:

The Tampa area will feel very little effects from Wilma. Trust me.




http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw

The NHC is disagreeing with you. They are predicting 44-47mph winds with 60mph gusts




Yes, they are disagreeing with him because they actually have a TS Warning for that area. Therefore, people need to PREPARE for TS conditions (i.e. taking your patio furniture off of the patio, loose halloween stuff inside, etc.)


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blizzardnut
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 11
Loc: 42.3 N 71.7 W
Re: Check out the dew points at 10 a.m. [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62308 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:43 PM

Quote:

anyway....where are all the new england users/mets?




Well, here's one... longtime lurker, first time poster. Great, great site! Plus my in-laws live on the beach in Melbourne, so more than just a casual interest in this one. We've had 14 inches of rain in the last two weeks, otherwise I'd say "bring 'er on!" I think with the front all the fun stuff will get swept out to sea, plus it looks like we're more likely to get snow showers than tropical storm conditions. But it may be interesting... with the saturated ground here, winds might have more punch than otherwise. We'll see!

Edit - WELCOME!!

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Oct 23 2005 04:26 PM)


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62309 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:44 PM

Tornado watch issued. Effective over All of S Fla, including the keys and extends up to North of Tampa and across to Seminole county, including Orlando.

Edit: Correction, Does not include the Orlando area. Does include Polk county West. My software only draws a box, so the box had the Orlando area.

--------------------
Jim


Edited by Rasvar (Sun Oct 23 2005 03:51 PM)


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Joshua
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 43
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Rasvar]
      #62311 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:46 PM

Please keep in mind that the NWS is forecasting the winds because of the pressure gradient. The closer those lines of equal pressure are together in the computer models you see all the time, the faster the air (wind) moves. Gusts are in the squalls Tampa Bay *may* get.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62312 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:47 PM

Latest round of dropsondes found stronger winds in the E eyewall. No surface wind was recorded, but the wind was 109 kts at 925 mb, 113 kts at 850mb, and averaged to 94 knots over the lowest 150m until the sonde stopped reporting. Using the usual relationships, these would support surface winds of 85-90 knots (100-105 mph).

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Sun Oct 23 2005 03:50 PM)


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Joshua
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 43
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62313 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:50 PM

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/RadarLoop/eyw_None_anim.gif

That radar link really will show the center go across the state nicely. They are combined between Melbourne, Miami and Key West, with little attenuation.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Here it comes! [Re: zacker20]
      #62314 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:51 PM

You may also want to read this:

Inland TS Warning For Tampa Bay Area

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Tornado Watch counties [Re: Rasvar]
      #62315 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:53 PM

FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROWARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS
COLLIER DESOTO GLADES
HARDEE HENDRY HERNANDO
HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH LEE
MANATEE MIAMI-DADE MONROE
PALM BEACH PASCO PINELLAS
POLK SARASOTA SUMTER

--------------------
Jim


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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62316 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:53 PM

Its current path appears to take it through Big Cypress Preserve, across below Belle Glade, and then north of Jupiter (over Johnathon Dickinson State Park); so it appears to be about the best case scenario because those areas all the way through the state are fairly unpopulated...except by alligators, turtles and fishhawks (and a lot of sugar cane).

If you look at the Visible Floater Loop with the TPC Forcast Points layer on, it appears that she is running just a tad north of the forcast track. If that continued it would still be close to the current TPC track but maybe slightly north of it (which I guess would be a little closer to Naples...lets hope not). Hopefully it will stay on its current path.


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 68
Loc: St. Petersburg, FL
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #62318 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:55 PM

For those who live in the Tampa Bay area...

From the NWS in Ruskin


MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO MANY MOBILE HOMES. POORLY CONSTRUCTED
HOMES MAY RECEIVE SOME WALL DAMAGE AND PARTIAL ROOF REMOVAL. A FEW
HOUSES MAY HAVE MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOF SHINGLES AND SIDING. A FEW
POOL CAGES AND LANAI SCREENS WILL BE DAMAGED. UNSECURED
LIGHTWEIGHT ITEMS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL
DAMAGE. SOME ELECTRICAL WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOCAL POWER
OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.

MOST NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS WILL BE DAMAGED OR UPROOTED.
SOME ROTTING SMALL TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...AND ROTTEN LARGE
BRANCHES WILL SNAP. NUMEROUS SMALL TWIGS WILL SEPARATE FROM TREES.
A FEW PALM FRONDS WILL BE BLOWN DOWN.

--------------------
Matt
Chase 22
Stormnet
TBW Skywarn Spotter


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