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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Doombot!
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 90
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Inner eyewall reforming? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #61994 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:49 AM

Quote:

fascinating,

does anyone else see what appears to be the inner eyewall reforming?

-Mark




Looks that way to me too, but that's crazy talk!

Looks like the models from http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif that are dated 0600z show a push south again. I'm starting to feel comforatable with the Naples forcast.


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zacker20
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 27
Wilma's turn to the northeast begins... *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: HanKFranK]
      #61995 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:52 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Wilma's turn to the northeast begins... [Re: zacker20]
      #61996 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:56 AM

The turn to the Northeast is not unexpected and is part of the forecast. Look at the sats with the forecast overlay. Interesting that you state that, but there is very little support for that scenario.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Doombot!
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 90
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Wilma's turn to the northeast begins... *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: zacker20]
      #61999 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:02 AM

Looks to be dead-on the NHC track, sorry. The 6:15 frame shows a very nice double-eye; the inner eye seems to completly reformed on that frame.

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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Wilma's turn to the northeast begins... *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Doombot!]
      #62001 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:14 AM

If you animate this GOES image you can see that it is building higher clouds as well.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Eye [Re: Geoff]
      #62002 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:19 AM

Now that I got that problem fixed. i can answer your posts.
Recon reported Concentric Eyewalls on their 0528Z pass. A 20 mile, and a 60 mile diameter Eye.


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Big Tk
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 25
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Eye [Re: danielw]
      #62003 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:24 AM

danielw

where is the inner eye located to the east side or west side of the larger eye? NHC has it moving to the NE at last report. It's looks more ENE to me.


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Eye [Re: Big Tk]
      #62004 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:34 AM

I have been looking at this for a bit, and its moving NE. Seems to be on track with two of the models, the GFS and the UKMET for now. GFDL and CAN Models both had this thing gaining more latitude within the first 12 hours off the coast of the Yukitan. The NOGAPS, appears to be slow.. Storm seems to be moving with the forecast points, albeit maybe a tad west of them, but a little difficult to tell because of the double eyes ..

Double eye walls make it a little more difficult to track, at least for me.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Eye [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #62005 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:46 AM

I made hard copies, thinking that would make it easier to track the Double Eyewalls.
It didn't work either.

?Possibility of cycloidal movements with the Double Eyes?


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Eye [Re: danielw]
      #62006 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:50 AM

Yes, which I think will give me a headache tracking.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Eye [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #62007 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:54 AM

It is not likely that the inner eyewall will reform because of the dry air already between the two eyewalls, even with the inner eye developing convection. What is more likely to happen is that the ragged inner eyewall will expand instead of reforming, and pieces of it will be absorbed into the outer eyewall, which will have been decreasing as well (already went from 70 to 60nm).

Notice that the SW corner of the outer eyewall is still not off the coast. For the past 3-4 hours she's hardly moved at all, and the longer she takes to get to the loop current, the further along the ERC will be. There are a lot of other factors for intensity, but the timing will be critical in either helping her to strengthen rapidly, or to keep her from strengthening much, and all this will occur not too many hours away from landfall.

I wanted to add that recon shows the pressure is dropping and the temp diff is increasing, so she's turned the corner so to speak, and has started reintensifying. It looks like she's been making headway against the dry air as well in the past couple hours, because the entire windfield has had a significant rise in moisture (on the wv loop, see the blue area grow).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Sun Oct 23 2005 04:04 AM)


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jeangfl
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL 26.55N 81.90W
Re: Eye [Re: Margie]
      #62011 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:27 AM

Is this really the last post? It's been 1.5 hrs.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Eye [Re: jeangfl]
      #62012 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:51 AM

No obvious changes here except for the Inner Eyewall notation. Line " I " , the temperature outside the Eye has warmed by 2degC over the last 72minutes.

Fix is 13min N and 5min E of last fix.
Or 0.2 N/ -0.1W. That looks to be near NNE.
A 1:1 or 2:2 ratio would be due NE.

URNT12 KNHC 230943
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/09:17:40Z
B. 22 deg 11 min N
086 deg 31 min W
C. 700 mb 2749 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 359 deg 081 kt
G. 265 deg 076 nm
H. 960 mb
I. 10 C/ 3051 m
J. 14 C/ 3044 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C65
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2024A Wilma OB 26
MAX FL WIND 91 KT S QUAD 07:19:10 Z
REMNENT INNER EYE 16 NM DIA. 50% COVERAGE. OPEN W SEMICIRCLE.

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 23 2005 05:56 AM)


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: Eye [Re: danielw]
      #62013 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:58 AM

Ok at least I am not the only one who could not sleep...

I took a look at Skeetobite map... he shows hurricane force winds entering western dade county... am i seeing this correctly... Danny any thoughts on this....

I should know better, but i have not put up my shutters yet... due partly in fact that my hubby is out of the country and i don't want to bug friends to help.. but I am reconsidering this morning to call in the troops early.. any thoughts???? btw i live in South West Dade County and was flooded in by Katrina... so i am a litle hurricane disgusted right now :?:

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Thoughts [Re: trinibaje]
      #62014 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:15 AM

I have gotten several PMs in the last few minutes. I wish I could say without a doubt that Wilma would be a Cat1 at landfall. I can't say that...neither can NHC.

I'm using what I learned from Katrina to react. And that may not apply here. I hope It Doesn't.

The best that I could tell you is. If you live in an area thatis Low and Floods. Go to Higher ground. I have seen predictions of up to 5 inches per hour in some of the HLS and discussions this morning.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls4.shtml

If you have large, tall trees around your house, it might be a good idea to secure things that you don't want to get wet. And seek shelter elsewhere. Whether it's a motel, Emergency Shelter or family and friends.
Just take your time and don't get in too much of a hurry.

If you choose to stay at home. Make sure several people know that you are there. They have your cellphone number, and any other information you deem important.

Persons with medical/ medicine needs will need to plan on keeping their medications safe and if perishable-refridgerated.

http://www.cdc.gov has very good links.
http://www.bt.cdc.gov/disasters/hurricanes/index.asp

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 23 2005 06:18 AM)


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nowhammies
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 19
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Eye [Re: danielw]
      #62015 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:19 AM

Quote:

No obvious changes here except for the Inner Eyewall notation. Line " I " , the temperature outside the Eye has warmed by 2degC over the last 72minutes.




2 questions regarding that -

1. Am I correct in assuming that implys weakening rather than strenghtening - colder temps = stronger correct?
It varies from storm to storm, but this would mean that the air outside the Eye had warmed by 2degC.~danielw
2. After yesterdays crash course in reading these reports, I notice that this one shows an increase in Flight Level winds from 70 something last night at midnightish to 95 this morning - this seems like a significant difference. Is it not a big deal because it is expected that it would be higher on the south side of the storm than the north slide (which is where I think last nights measuement was from)

If you are reading the Vortex reports. An increase from 70 to 90 is fairly important. Read-strenghtening. Otherwise the wind speed increase would have to be in the same lat/long area as the previous one (my opinion only)~danielw

Thanks for your help

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 23 2005 06:24 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Thoughts [Re: danielw]
      #62016 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:19 AM

Most of all, Stay Safe!
There are plenty of Advisories on the front page.
I'll see you tonight~danielw


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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 42
Loc: Pinellas County
Re: Thoughts [Re: danielw]
      #62017 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:21 AM

Quote:

I have gotten several PMs in the last few minutes. I wish I could say without a doubt that Wilma would be a Cat1 at landfall. I can't say that...neither can NHC.

I'm using what I learned from Katrina to react. And that may not apply here. I hope It Doesn't.

The best that I could tell you is. If you live in an area thatis Low and Floods. Go to Higher ground. I have seen predictions of up to 5 inches per hour in some of the HLS and discussions this morning.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls4.shtml

If you have large, tall trees around your house, it might be a good idea to secure things that you don't want to get wet. And seek shelter elsewhere. Whether it's a motel, Emergency Shelter or family and friends.
Just take your time and don't get in too much of a hurry.

If you choose to stay at home. Make sure several people know that you are there. They have your cellphone number, and any other information you deem important.

Persons with medical/ medicine needs will need to plan on keeping their medications safe and if perishable-refridgerated.

http://www.cdc.gov has very good links.
http://www.bt.cdc.gov/disasters/hurricanes/index.asp




Are there specific areas you are concentrating on when you "seek shelter elsewhere". We are in St Pete approx. 5 miles from the beach.


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Joshua
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 43
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: Thoughts [Re: StPeteBill]
      #62019 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:32 AM

According to the NHC, you all in St. Petersburg shouldn't be getting too much in the way of storm surge. In fact, the water may even be pushed out a bit due to the winds. Also, you may not be getting much more than strong tropical storm gusts, so I wouldn't evacuate if it were me and I live 5 miles from the beach as well here in Ft. Lauderdale.

But as always, do what you local officials tell you to do. Call you local county EOC office's rumor control hotline and ask them if you should evacuate.

http://www.co.pinellas.fl.us/bcc/emergency/

Edited by Joshua (Sun Oct 23 2005 06:33 AM)


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KC
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL 26.30N 81.35W
Re: Thoughts [Re: danielw]
      #62020 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:34 AM

For the SW Florida crowd online, ABC-7 and Fox-4 are now broadcasting live. We were hoping someone would be on soon. The local news stations have also published the lists of radio stations that will simulcast if you need it.

We are inland Collier County, between Exit 111 of I-75 and Immokalee, an area that is supposed to be surge safe to a 4/5. Our area has been deemed safer than most because the special needs shelter is Palmetto Ridge HS, around the corner from the community we live in. We are 2000 construction and the trees haven't grown enough yet to be a hazard as Daniel mentioned.

Stay safe everyone!

Karen


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