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The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season is over. 2015's run June 1st-Nov 30th, 2015.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 167 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3341 (9 y 1 m) (Wilma)
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 93
Loc: Cape Coral, FL 26.63N 81.94W
Re: latest TWO [Re: Margie]
      #63113 - Tue Oct 25 2005 08:31 PM

Well, we arrived home in Cape Coral from the Orlando area late this morning. Overall impression was that Wilma, at least for Cape Coral, didn't pack as high winds as Charley, although Wilma's winds lasted longer. No way near as much tree, sign, shrub or structural damage, but Charley may have done the first "pruning" last year. The majority of the LCEC (Lee County Electric Coop) customers on the Cape have power back, and things are basically back to normal. Even had the mail delivered today. FPL power is coming back on gradually in Fort Myers. Like the governor, LCEC has its act together for these situations as does Lee County and the city of Cape Coral. My home is fine except for some minor shrub and tree damage and a minor water incursion caused when Wilma's driving rain entered an air vent at a 180 degree angle, wet the insulation which in turn penetrated the ceiling onto a bedroom dresser. We were very fortunate once again. As Margie and others commented, Florida is the most prepared state in terms of preparing for and responding to a natural disaster, and governor Jeb, in my opinion, is a superb leader. BTW, his wife is Spanish and he's fluent in Spanish which a real plus with the large Hispanic population we have in Florida. In stressful times, it's really comforting to know the state's prepared. Just finish by saying it's disconcerting to see another possible system in the Caribbean, especially after having spent the last 7 hours or so unpacking, rehanging pictures, removing storm panels, etc. Really don't want to have to go through the exercise again this season, but we'll have to see what happens. Note to mods: if this is too off topic, okay to send it to the happy hunting ground.

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Picking up pieces [Re: Bloodstar]
      #63114 - Tue Oct 25 2005 08:42 PM

Ok, just read through the latest TWD. Looks like they think the SW Carribean wave is likely to develop into something. TWO also mentions this system. Looking through them models, GFS take this system into central America before it gets too much time to development. Ukmet and NOGAPS keep this system barely moving. CMC heads the system north toward Cuba. All of them keep it moving too slowly to really have a guess about where it might go.

There is also a western Atlantic wave that has the potential for development talked about in the TWD, but it hasn't been mentioned on the TWO yet.


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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
Re: latest TWO [Re: CoalCracker]
      #63115 - Tue Oct 25 2005 08:54 PM

Much as Fl May have preparation for storms in order -- there still is a lot to be improved
Some examples

With Frances & Jeanne our power was out for about 6 days each and there has been no concerted effort to get the power companies to improve infrastructure to make it more storm proof. If poles blow over, new ones go up and they raise our rates instead of working with more underground lines etc. In fact when they ran low on cash Florida Power discontinued their tree trimming program to keep branches away from lines.

Gasoline shortages are universal particularly when evacuation orders are sent out and when Port Everglades closes no fuel can get in for the majority of the state -- when the power is out , the last thing you want to hear is no fuel for the generator

Shelters have also had problems here -- though not on the scale of Superdome. These have included roofs blowing off flooding and inadequate supplies

Finally and I think most importantly despite changes in the building codes we are still building like crazy in the highest risk areas. Waterfront condos are nice but as we saw in Miami even Cat 2-3 storms have signif higher winds a few stories up. Look at the experience of those in Pensacola where thousands of homes are on flat sandy barrier islands that washed over with Dennis and Ivan. And there are plenty of homes going up in low lying flood zones everywhere -- we may not be below sea level, but even 5-6 feet of surge with rain on top puts homes underwater. So from a government standpoint some rethinking needs to be done about how to manage these issues and how to pay the escalating bills if we don't.


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: latest TWO [Re: CoalCracker]
      #63116 - Tue Oct 25 2005 08:54 PM

Glad to hear you are back and not too much damage. Are most of Florida's lines for electricity underground? Rita knocked
so many trees and poles down here. It was a mess but our electric company did an outstanding job, working round the clock.
How soon will everyone have power back in Florida?


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FreakedInFlorida
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 20
Re: latest TWO [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #63117 - Tue Oct 25 2005 09:05 PM

In our area which is Ft. Pierce, about 45 miles north of Wast Palm Beach, it's all pretty much above ground electricity. We have a light pole/transformer next to our house. The power finally came back here (we have local utilties, rather than FPL), but the latest news says that some parts may be out for 4 weeks or so. 6 million without power as of this morning.

We didn't get much damage here (none to the house, except for the very corner of the roof hangover). I'm a bit suspicious that a tornado may have passed through our yard as there is a swatch of heavy foliage/fence damage that doesn't seem to match the rest of the street. We heard a couple noises that may have been that, but not quite sure. Appreciate once again the advice on here on what to expect. It wasn't that scary really, not as much as I thought, but we were on the north side which probably didn't get the winds as much as the south did.

Some places were closed, but it looks like for the most part it was business as usual for Wal-Mart, the banks, etc, much different scenario than after Frances/Jeanne.


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: latest TWO [Re: FreakedInFlorida]
      #63118 - Tue Oct 25 2005 09:11 PM

There have got to be a lot of mini-tornadoes with these storms because you see so much of that, some damage and then
a whole bunch of it concentrated in a small area. That makes sense it would take a month to get electricity to some areas in Florida.
That is how long it has taken here.

So, is this new system going to develop and become Beta?


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: latest TWO [Re: FreakedInFlorida]
      #63119 - Tue Oct 25 2005 09:12 PM

The system in the Caribbean is now classified as 90L. They did a test SHIPS run, which shows only modest development before the BAM models take it into Central America:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGHUR


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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 93
Loc: Cape Coral, FL 26.63N 81.94W
Re: latest TWO [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #63120 - Tue Oct 25 2005 09:26 PM

90L initial graphic plots are up on South Florida Water Management site.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html


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NWBroward
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 1
Re: latest TWO [Re: CoalCracker]
      #63121 - Tue Oct 25 2005 09:28 PM Attachment (453 downloads)

I was on the IRC channel during the storm until about 20 mins after the eye. I was pretty encouraged with the minor damage we took from the first eye wall (winds from the South), but the second eye wall (winds from the West) slaughtered us. Trees that were down actually lifted up and over to fall down the other way. We lost power (still gone of course), phones, and everything else. Damage is pretty bad down there. It's all relative I guess .. since it's nowhere near Katrina damage .. but for us it's awful.

I packed up the family a few hours after the storm (when I first started hearing rumors that it would be a week or so without power) and headed North. Now we're in "The Happiest Place On Earth™" and the kids coudln't be happier. The adults however .. we could be happier.

Hope everyone is well.

NWBroward (Coral Springs, FL)

PS: Attachment shows a pic with the front of my house inside the eye, and after the storm. Note the direction of the fallen tree.


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: latest TWO [Re: Margie]
      #63122 - Tue Oct 25 2005 09:30 PM

Our local officials did an excellent job of getting people to evacuate. The people in this area knew
the risk of staying and also knew what it might be like after the storm (no electricty, no water, HEAT, no
services). We had about a 90% evacuation rate and it was
a good thing because we had significant damage from Rita and sweltering heat after the storm with no electricity.
There were hardly any services in the city after the storm because damage was extensive. I think by most people
being out of the city it made the job of getting things up and running again easier. People came back into the city gradually.
Yes, there were problems (FEMA's slow response was one) but overall Jefferson County did a good job in responding to this disaster.
Also, families were able to apply to FEMA for money to help cover evacuation expenses. Maybe if people knew that there would be
help in covering those expenses they would be more willing to leave. As for changing the system of classifying these storms, the
one in place is fine. It it the job of the local officials to make sure people get out of harm's way and to make
sure people understand how important it is to leave.


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: latest TWO [Re: NWBroward]
      #63123 - Tue Oct 25 2005 09:35 PM

If you have storm damage, well, it is awful. And being without electricity, well, that's pretty awful too. My prayers are with
you all.


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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
Re: latest TWO [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #63124 - Tue Oct 25 2005 09:46 PM

I agree there is prob not a lot of benefit to changing the current storm ranking system -- Those of us that frequent this website may be sophisticted enough to care that a faster moving storm amplifies the wind speed of the R forward quadrant in the N hemisphere and that there is less total rainfall with quicker transit. But to the public in general, some authority has to determine the safest actions -- evacuations, shelters, etc and try to provide relief afterwards. More complicated will likely mean only more of the population will not understand.

No matter what warnings are in place there is always a significant group that has an excuse to ignore warnings and recommendations - Guarding the property, don't believe the mets or gov't officials, been through it before and had no problem etc, etc, etc. For those I can't imagine any more sophisticated warning system will be helpful -- they will ignore it anyway.


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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
Re: latest TWO [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #63125 - Tue Oct 25 2005 10:02 PM

My experience with hurricanes has been that most of the damage is not as spectacular as the press would like -- although some areas hit by tornadic winds or storm surge are flattened, the predominant issue is water damage and not by flooding, but wind driven rain -- Your home is designed to keep water out when it comes from the top and is pretty good in that regard usually -- but take even tropical storm force winds with rain and you are attacked sideways-- water leaks in through windows ( those little troughs at the bottom are no match for wind of hurricane speed -- the water is pushed through the bottom of the sill up and over the barriers and in). The same is true of doors, skylights, air conditioning vents, chimneys --places you wouldn't dream of cuz they are only tested when Charley, Frances, Jeanne or Wilma comes calling

The fun part is each attacks at a different angle and finds differnet cracks to penetrate your fortress. Once inside the water ruins homes -- particularly if the power is out --you can't dry things out before the mold attacks. And none of this is necessarily visible from the outside. Many homes locally have had to be gutted because of relatively minor leaks

I have one friend whose entire front wall was ruined not because of any visible leak, but because Frances battered his brick front home for 3 days and blew water through the masonry itself into the wooden/plaster interior. So you gotta even seal your bricks

Anyone want to move to Fl now -- got insects you wouldn't believe too


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: latest TWO [Re: Cindi]
      #63126 - Tue Oct 25 2005 10:02 PM

Quote:

I don't know about the water temps here off the coast, but in Panama City, FL today, the high is 64. Which feels like heaven to me... I am soooo ready for this hurricane season to be over. Only 36 more days to go.




Amen Cindy.....AMEN !!!!

To all the members in S. Florida who will catch up on the forum when you get your power back on, I hope your damage was minimal. I know how tough it can be without electrical power for days on end.
I was reading about the flooding and damage in Key West. I think Wilma finally did what other storms
could not, that being make Key Westers sit up and take notice of the power of the wind and water.
Glad it's over, hoping for a quick recovery to all.


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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 80
Loc: Central Arkansas
Re: latest TWO [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #63127 - Tue Oct 25 2005 10:54 PM

I don't hear the fat lady yet and it's been a long year-- don't forget those noreaster's are yet to come. God bless and good luck to all.

--------------------
character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking


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GoBigSurf
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 14
Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL 27.37N 80.37W
Re: latest TWO [Re: collegemom]
      #63128 - Tue Oct 25 2005 11:12 PM

WE HAVE POWER!!!

Now thats out of the way, we just got our power back and feeling extremely thankful.
THANK YOU FPL! From what I've seen here in Port Saint Lucie, the back side of this storm was definately the worst for us. We lost our wood fence (so did almost everyone else) and most of our trees. We personally had more damage to "our" property from Wilma than last year's storms. But most importantly we are all ok.

About half of the windows at the school I teach at are blown out, so I don't see school beginning this week, and possibly next week.

Thank you all for keeping us informed and entertained throughout the storm!
Off to clean my fridge!

Malachi


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: latest TWO [Re: GoBigSurf]
      #63129 - Wed Oct 26 2005 12:35 AM

I am decompressing tonight. For the first time in weeks and weeks (I think since early August) I turned on the TV to something other than CNN or TWC (my fav movie of all time was on, "Notorious"), and I thought, thank goodness Wilma is done. It was nice to relax.

And then I felt just awful. Why are we tracking these storms if we can't do something to improve the situation. We get caught up in it and try to understand it and predict it, and there are parts of it that we enjoy, or that facinate us, but how can that be reconciled with all of the misery these storms cause.

My brother...he's still trying to work extra shifts on all his days off, which is really not a good thing for a cop that's had a very stressful work environment for awhile, and has lost everything. Why? Because he told me that he wouldn't know what to do on his days off. After two months he's still homeless and only has a bed (that doesn't fit) to sleep in, and of course he's grateful for that, but he doesn't even have a place to sit down and relax (still rebuilding going on at my mom's). There isn't anything I can think of to do for him, short of stealing a MN ice fishing shack and hauling it down there on a truck (they fix those shacks up pretty fancy). And he's better off than most. Today my mother told me she can't imagine what's going to happen to all the folks in Jackson County who are sleeping in tents on their slabs, once it starts to get more towards wintertime (the cold snap probably put that on everyone's mind).

Are we spectators or participants, and is it wrong to be a "hobbyist" when it comes to hurricanes?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63130 - Wed Oct 26 2005 12:44 AM

I can assure you that there is no nepotism involved with the current state meteorologist of Florida, Ben Nelson. For one, he's not related to anyone in the administration. He is young and while he has been through a few storms before, he's still learning on the job. The position has seen some turnover over the past few years, so he hasn't been in the position all that long. He has done a fine job in his time in the post and has worked his way up the ladder quickly through his work. One little hiccup isn't going to make a big difference -- and truthfully, a lot of people have slipped over the past few days and gotten the storm names mixed up.

Remember -- his job isn't so much to predict where storms are going as it is to repackage the information out there from the NHC & other official sources and make it easy for the public to understand. His work is one of the reasons why Florida is prepared for these storms and comes across that way to the rest of the nation as well.

Area in the SW Caribbean needs to be watched...it's not going to move much over the next few days, so whether or not it remains over water is going to be critical to its development. Ultimate path could take it inland over Central America to its demise or, in the long-term, across Cuba and through the Bahamas ahead of another trough of low pressure. Tangential threat to Florida could be there again, but I don't think it'll be the sort seen from Wilma.

Word of caution with using SSTs in the Gulf -- all of those SSTs are taken in the shallow near-coastal waters, particularly those north of Tampa in the shallow Apalachee Bay region. Waters out in the Gulf 10mi or more (except in Apalachee Bay) are still in the 80s and are much slower to respond to changes in the overall environment. While other conditions currently preclude any development in the Gulf, notably stable low levels and strong vertical wind shear, SSTs really aren't one of them. Sure, anything heading into the NE Gulf would likely weaken to landfall, but not dramatically so unless it was a major hurricane to begin with.

Another note of caution -- Wilma's probably more the exception than the rule when it comes to major hurricanes at such a high latitude. It set the record for the latest major hurricane to make a US landfall. ..it's highly, highly unlikely to see another major storm hit the US this season. All of the major storms that have affected northern latitudes have been in August and September, maybe early October -- but not late October. The environmental conditions heading into New England/the NE US or the Canadian Maritimes cannot support a cat 2/3 storm at this point in time. I should note that any storm of any intensity heading that way is going to be partially baroclinically driven and undergoing extratropical transition, creating a whole new set of concerns. Point being, it's not likely at any point during the season to see something that far north as anything more than a weak hurricane, yet alone in late October.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: latest TWO [Re: GoBigSurf]
      #63131 - Wed Oct 26 2005 01:24 AM

there's a 'too weak' out on 90L from ssd. i concur... not very well organized at all. there are a few issues that should keep the development slow as is typical with these late-season caribbean features, and of course there is the chance that it can't manage to develop at all. on the west side of the system the northerly flow in the wake of Wilma has plunged all the way down to the western side of panama. there's a sharp convergence line, with the tropical easterlies asserting themselves and pushing the line a little west.. all the while the weak contra-flow often on the pacific side of panama is curled up over the eastern side of the country. end result is a broad gyre at low latitude. it would definitely fester if the upper environment was good and it were focused a little further north, but there is the issue of some nw shear that has swept around underneath the large upper ridge that Wilma left, making an elongated cyclonic turning across much of the caribbean. the intrusion of this semi-hostile upper air flow should keep the surface system from focusing easily. as models forecast the disturbed weather to persist for days, it may win out in the long run... but don't expect a classifiable system tomorrow and probably not on thursday either.
system further east really has the same type of prospects. it is taking a trajectory and progged path similar to the one alpha took days back. not quite as organized at this point, and not under quite the same upper environment.. but as the cyclonic flow over the caribbean contracts there is some ridging/diffluence aloft trying to establish near the wave. its signature has increased slowly through tuesday, and most models track this feature though none are very aggressive with it. i'd say in the long run it has similar chances to what alpha had. like the 90L invest it won't organize very quickly.
thought i'd pick up on the rant from earlier about the saffir simpson scale. putting a category 6 on would be kind of stupid. there would be so few category sixes as to make pointless the classification... case and point there are so few fives. since we had a banner crop this year it seems like they're more plentiful, and we had isabel and Ivan during the previous two years. prior to that there were two in the 1990s, three in the 1980s, and three in the 1970s. pretty doggone rare. there are seldom few examples of pressure below 900mb, which is where the next logical cutoff would be. we somehow managed two this year, and almost 3.
re-doing the saffir simpson scale would be sort of pointless also. it describes the effects you can expect with a particular intensity range... not matched too generically. the forecasts issued by the hurricane center and locally calibrated give a pretty good assessment of what to expect from a storm. storms are going to be rated by their most intense characteristics... thus you'll always get storms like Charley and Andrew more intense than Wilma and Ivan were at landfall... though the latter had potential for much more widespread wind damage. Katrina illustrated very well how surge doesn't necessarily match up with the saffir simpson expectations. it hit at a 4, secondary on ms at a 3.. and the surge was well above what camille or the labor day storm managed.
a more useful thing to do would be to split the categories by effect.. i.e. Katrina in ms had cat 3 winds but a cat 4 pressure and cat 5 surge. adjust accordingly. yes, you can weather the cat 3 storm winds in your home if it's well constructed. no, if you're not more than 25' above sea level you're screwed. the idea of using rainfall is a little spurious. case and point tropical storm allison and alberto in 1994. stan is giving Katrina a run for deadliest storm this year, and it was nowhere near as strong.
something else they could probably do better with is inland wind decay. hurricane force winds really don't make it far inland unless a hurricane is booking. the hurricane center really only does coastal areas. local weather service offices don't always come up with congruent ideas on how the inland wind impacts will come, and often they overdo them. wish the NHC would put out inland wind decay forecasts.
'nother thing i kinda wish the hurricane center would consider is lengthening the watch/warning times. they've taken the plunge and shown good skill with 4-5 day tracks in many cases. the old criteria of 36hr warning and 48hr watch sort of sells their forecast ability short. there should be a longer term alert they can put out, i.e. something from 72hr to tell people 'get you stuff together, get vulnerable things secured and persons ready to go'. probably economics keeping them from doing that, and the risk of making people complacent with storm alerts.. but i tell ya, after new orleans... the benefit may outweigh the risk in the long-run.
that's a hell of a lot. guess i'll just shut up before i write a book.
y'all take it easy.
HF 0524z26october


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: latest TWO [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63133 - Wed Oct 26 2005 07:34 AM

As for the length of watch/warning times, that seems a good idea. 36/48 hour times are too short for a major Category 4 or 5 storm. They are fine for 1 and 2, and possibly 3, but definately not 4 or 5. Perhaps they should add 24-36 hours if it is category 3+?

As for a redo of the scales, what's the point of pressure? That doesn't directly cause distruction, but rather causes the winds and the surge. I think there needs to be some way of rating the surge level no matter whether any change is made to the existing system (which I think functions quite well). The question is how to get people to understand the surge effect and properly distribute the information in a people-friendly manner. Perhaps we should take our nice elevation maps and start overlaying category zones: (1) 0-5' surge; (2) 5-10' surge; (3) 10-15' surge; etc. Then we distribute these to the local media outlets and say "this storm is a Category 2 surge" which would result in the media outlets distributing, via the airwaves, a map with zones (1) and (2) highlighted. This "might" help. (I've picked intervals randomly...and evacs should always be whatever category level is a couple feet higher than the current category)


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