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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 43 (Nate) , Major: 61 (Maria) Florida - Any: 71 (Irma) Major: 71 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? [Re: damejune2]
      #63553 - Sat Nov 12 2005 10:20 PM

Wow 2 Invest form in one night and it is november look like MJO has started in the Atlantic once again It look like 93L is going kuputt while 94L is flaring some nice convection and should be getting into a better enviorment for Devlopment It Might not be suprising if we have a Tropical cyclone in a couple of days mabye even Two Can I get some feedback on these thanks.

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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.

Edited by NONAME (Sat Nov 12 2005 10:21 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? [Re: NONAME]
      #63557 - Sat Nov 12 2005 11:09 PM

94L is in the location CMC has been showing something developing for a couple of days. This might be it.

Looks good for an early pre-TD system on IR - growing quickly. If it can maintain this rate, I wouldn't be surprised to see it classified as a TD tomorrow.

The track CMC takes this system on is between WNW and W. Here are the other model runs: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_94.gif

Also, Floater 2 has been moved to 94L.

--RC


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63564 - Sun Nov 13 2005 12:20 AM

naw man, floater 2 has been sitting there since that invest 92L was over there, back when beta was still active. that thing never developed, but two weeks later something has popped up to replace it.
i agree that it looks like it may well be classified soon. it looks to have a closed low at this point though cloud motions at night can be tricky, even on ir2. there's definitely a solid mass of convection present with the disturbance, so it looks like the developmental feedback mechanism is in place. that keeps up and it'll probably make it during the day sunday. close to the islands, so they might toss together a recon flight. more likely monday, though.
that's 94L. 93L is still just a broad mess near panama. a lot of convection has developed inland over columbia, and should wander out to sea into the broad low pressure in the region, while the upper air pattern has been consistently forecast to improve for this region. 94 looks to be leading the way right now, but i'd say that 93 has time on its side. both have had modest support from the models, but it's still a little surprising that one is already ramping up.
HF 0520z13november


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63565 - Sun Nov 13 2005 12:57 AM

Isn't that nifty... 94L formed right under the floater. [Jaws music...] just when you thought it was safe to go have a nice Sat evng away from the computer. What a diff six hours makes. Well now we've got the tortoise and the hare bookending the Caribbean. Oughta be a fun week.

Why am I seeing a little bit of outflow to the west, or at least not so much evidence of the westerly shear on the west side, I wouldn't expect to see any at all with that much westerly shear.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? [Re: Margie]
      #63567 - Sun Nov 13 2005 09:36 AM

SSD gives a Dvorak classification of 1.5 to 94L now, but sat shows convection dropping in the core (though growing on the fringes). It needs a bit of time for organization before hitting TD now...but I'd be surprised if it doesn't make TD within a day or two.

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63568 - Sun Nov 13 2005 01:18 PM

94L is looking like its in some shear right now. The circulation center you can very clearly see is off to the north and west of the deep convection. But its not really outracing the entire circulation as there looks like evidence of some low level turning in the atmosphere. I guess it is wait and see now.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #63569 - Sun Nov 13 2005 07:52 PM Attachment (556 downloads)

GFDL Bring 94L up to a 4 in 114 hours looks like after tomorow it will start to devlop more and become a strong major hurrican going through the Central Carribean following a track like Emilys through it.

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? [Re: NONAME]
      #63570 - Sun Nov 13 2005 08:07 PM

The GFDL models have gone from nothing to Major Hurricane and back to nothing the last 2 days so wouldn't count on that model right now Number of the models that do something has 94L as a strong TS or Cat 1 system.

Dave


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? [Re: Old Sailor]
      #63572 - Sun Nov 13 2005 09:16 PM

Special Tropical Distrubance statement was issued. Looks like TD 27 will form tonight.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
TD 27 [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #63573 - Sun Nov 13 2005 09:52 PM

Has formed. Just...Wow.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: TD 27 [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #63574 - Sun Nov 13 2005 10:16 PM

Yes and the discussion was written by Stewart...don'tcha love to read his. They are so thorugh and explain everything in a simple clear way.

Well looks like Central America could be seeing a lot of rain again next weekend, and possibly even a major hurricane.

What's with the pic of TD22 on the LH side?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Hurricane Dad
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Loc: Virginia
Re: TD 27 [Re: Margie]
      #63576 - Sun Nov 13 2005 10:44 PM

Very Long time lurker - First post -

Margie,

I have noticed that when a new tropical system forms, the graphics do not update correctly for the first update. This is the case with sTD-22 listed on the top of the page. If you goto the NHC Site you will see the correct graphic.

Marc


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 138
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: TD 27 [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #63577 - Sun Nov 13 2005 11:03 PM

Hell has frozen over. How about a new topic?

Funny you should mention it, I was cooking one up just now. El topic nuevo. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Nov 13 2005 11:11 PM)


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