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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: texas and east [Re: sara33]
      #67070 - Mon Jun 19 2006 06:45 PM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS DISORGANIZED... AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY IS
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.


think this ULL is going to play a role in what could pop up.. this ULL is moving towards the GOM... i think the area to the east will be the concern... if conditons allow

floater is ready for us... floater vis

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Jun 19 2006 06:52 PM)


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harmlc.ath.cx
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 54
Loc: Longwood
Re: texas and east [Re: sara33]
      #67071 - Mon Jun 19 2006 07:24 PM

Quote:

Does anyone have a good link so that you can actually see the wind shear? It may be on here already and I am just missing it:)

Thanks,
Christine




Here's one:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html


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seb
Unregistered




Re: texas and east [Re: harmlc.ath.cx]
      #67072 - Mon Jun 19 2006 08:52 PM

I have a feeling that the area in bahamas will develop within 60 hours; my opinion only.It looks as though the clouds could be trying to circulate a bit. I'm not a pro like you all so maybe I see it incorrectly. I'm concerned about the set up with the bermuda high, looks to be a repeat of 2004 set up for FL. If anybody with real knowledge has a clue please let us know.

I think in the next couple of days this site will become very buisy. Just my thjoughts, however I don't see anything in the models as of now.


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ronningscared
Unregistered




Re: texas and east [Re: seb]
      #67073 - Mon Jun 19 2006 08:59 PM

I think I see what Seb is talking about, anyone else see it? My weather guy said the bermuda high could be a problem later on.

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: texas and east [Re: seb]
      #67074 - Mon Jun 19 2006 09:09 PM

Curious about the 60hr time frame... not real sure about this coming to be however I agree on the modeling.... the majority of models I have looked at this evening (12z-18z) have backed off from their prior runs ....a bunch of us have been watching this. Not out of the question but it seems slim right now...

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: texas and east [Re: HanKFranK]
      #67075 - Mon Jun 19 2006 09:46 PM

I read back through the posts enough to see that HF has already commented on the energy that seems to be slipping into the Gulf from Texas. That still at this time looks like enough to go hmmm? The bahama thing is cooking nicely too. It could be duck soup( as in watch out) if it keeps this up. I counted 5 different areas in one frame earlier today that would give a person pause to think about counting the hurricane supplies again.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.

Edited by GuppieGrouper (Mon Jun 19 2006 09:48 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: texas and east [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #67076 - Mon Jun 19 2006 10:07 PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
950 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006


IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL STAY ROUGHLY ALONG 30-31N LATITUDE BUT IF THE GFS IS RIGHT
A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS EAST OF THE PENINSULA CHANGING OUR WIND FLOW TO
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. GFS ACTUALLY MOVES THE LOW TOWARD THE
PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEW EXTENDED MOS POPS DROP BACK BELOW
CLIMO ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT A LITTLE SKEPTICAL RIGHT NOW.
PLENTY OF SUPPORT AT UPPER LEVELS WITH THE SHORT WAVE IN OUR AREA SO
DIURNAL CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW HELPED OUT BY A TROPICAL WAVE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OUR CONVECTION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SO WILL GO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THOSE DAYS AND BACK TO
CLIMO ON MONDAY.

will see if the GFS is right... The 18Z still has a VERY WEAK low coming in by friday and possible another one to the far SE popping up... will have to see what the 00Z runs have

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Jun 20 2006 01:31 AM)


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: texas and east [Re: HanKFranK]
      #67077 - Mon Jun 19 2006 10:40 PM

Definitely noticed that system here. Parts of Houston flooded and we had quite a bit of rain here. Ready for sunshine.

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wereallgonnadie
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 22
Loc: nw fla
Re: texas and east [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #67078 - Mon Jun 19 2006 11:46 PM

Send the rain to NW Fla. We sure do need it over here.

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: texas and east [Re: wereallgonnadie]
      #67079 - Tue Jun 20 2006 01:00 AM

very nice flare up of storms over eastern bahamas..... based on what i have seen in the 00Z models so far... including GFS... a low pressure may come out of this area/trof in 36-86 hrs...will see what happens and if models hold on to it in next few runs

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/pyaa02ir.gif

large area of storms crossing the islands too... upper level winds down there are too strong right now...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Jun 20 2006 01:15 AM)


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saluki
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 57
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: texas and east [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #67080 - Tue Jun 20 2006 01:35 AM

Toward the end of the 00Z run the CMC appears to be getting quite aggressive with a system approximately at 24N, 65W. Where's that coming from? Isn't the CMC known for being a bit over the top at times?

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: texas and east [Re: saluki]
      #67081 - Tue Jun 20 2006 02:32 AM

nice to see people perking back up after the post-alberto malaise. i think maybe we're doing a bit of wave-mongering, but the 00Z runs sure aren't doing much to discourage us.
in an atypical role reversal, the GFS is the least excited of all the models about the upcoming weekend. it pops a weak low and pushes it over florida without any interesting development, and leaves a general disturbed area off the southeast coast but does nothing with it. eta and ukmet are still showing a more defined trough or low east of the forecast upper trough off the east coast. euro has the upper trough but doesn't seem interested in any development (though it keeps a general trough in the gulf at the base of the persistent weakness forecast near and over the southeast.
more interesting runs pick up with NOGAPS and CMC. both are fairly reliable models and both do more with the apparent features. NOGAPS shows the GFS low crossing florida getting a bit more interesting in the gulf, with a suggested trough/low east of the bahamas by the weekend. CMC has a faster moving gulf system to near the texas coast, with the upper weakness further east, holding a fast-developing system south and west of bermuda further offshore next weekend. CMC has sporadically overdone development within the last week out there, as we're in a fairly persistent longwave pattern in the eastern u.s./western atlantic. seeing NOGAPS jump on the features as well, and also the other models 'seeing' vestiges of the same features, it makes the latter part of the coming week a time of growing interest, and the weekend potentially one of a return of activity. lets see if the models keep repeating the same general story, and if more of a consenus develops.
there may be a eastpac system out in the open pacific this week, as the ITCZ over there has a pronounced disturbance. it may be activating on a westerly pulse in the tropical pacific (from the last SOI dip)... watch/see if the enhanced convection propagates eastward over the next few days. could up the ante in the western part of our basin by the weekend if in fact real.
HF 0732z20june


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: texas and east [Re: saluki]
      #67082 - Tue Jun 20 2006 02:33 AM

I've noticed lots of stuff going on in the Satellite and the Models too...On Satellite, one piece of energy north of Central Cuba, another over eastern Bahamas, yet another NNE of Puerto Rico, then something in the leewards...not to mention the waves in the Atlantic...Interesting, but it looks to me like the TUTT is currently draped from Florida through the NW Carribean and affecting everything North of the greater Antillies at this time. Pretty good sized trough in my opinion (and unfavorable for development) too. Models seem to have been decent in showing where the waves would go over the last few days, but I'm leaning toward the pessimistic side in regards to development for now. Would prefer to see more consistancy first with that TUTT overhead (That trough doesn't seem to be leaving the area and westerlies will be inhibative for development).

Edited by dem05 (Tue Jun 20 2006 02:37 AM)


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: texas and east [Re: HanKFranK]
      #67083 - Tue Jun 20 2006 02:44 AM

I highly agree that there is some wave/model mongering going on at this time (Yeah, I'm not to afraid to admit I catch myself sometimes too). It will definately get busier in the coming months, so at the least...I think this is a good learning opportunity for the newbies on what helps tropical cyclones to develop/not develop. And the learning/warm-up probably doesn't hurt us veteran's either...goes for me for sure! :-)

Edited by dem05 (Tue Jun 20 2006 02:51 AM)


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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
Re: Alberto is gone and all is well...for now.. [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #67084 - Tue Jun 20 2006 05:21 AM

The wave east of Florida, in my opinion, will have a chance of developing into something as it pushes into the gulf. And if it does, I hope for nothing more than a depression and for it to come into central Florida. We really need the rain. Already has that "look" to it..

--------------------
Derek Sutherland


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: texas and east [Re: dem05]
      #67085 - Tue Jun 20 2006 06:45 AM

I agree to that there is some wave mongering going on but what else can we do in late June. It likely does not help our nerves that the energy seems to be sitting in the same place that Katrina was born, although it was later in the season.

I would be happy to see a slow moving soaker out of this mess. Alberto just did not get it. Yesterday I walked out for work and noticed a group of Fireants doing a rain dance with full tribal head gear (No insult meant to our Native American freinds).

Its dryyyyyy!

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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