MapMaster
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
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2 wks? Wow Clark, you are trusting that climo!  I'd go a week at the max, two I'd be wary.
Of course, it will be what it will be.
MM
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
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SOMETHING is happening in the Gulf though....and with the energy moving/converging from the east....hmmmmm
MM 
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HanKFranK
User
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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looks like july out there right now.
mjo seems to be working right now, and it's out in the western pacific. if the wave keeps moving in regular fashion (which it sometimes does), we'll be more apt to get development later in the month.
put together the current suggestions of the globals, and this is the consensus--
nw gulf clears out, activity goes inland into texas and rest goes northeast along the southeast coast.
weak low develops along the decaying frontal zone off the east coast this weekend. slowly works NE out to sea.
wave currently in nw caribbean is shown by and having a piece split off nw, work into western gulf. there's maybe some limited development potential, but it should keep moving and most likely not have time to do anything.
there's a wave currently very oppressed by the dry air in the eastern atlantic that is shown working wnw to the islands late weekend/early next week and tracked to near the florida straits. globals then lose it... suggests its energy feeds up into the lingering trough near the east coast. nothing suggests development.
there's another wave behind it currently near the cv islands. globals don't like it, though it has a decent signature on visibles right now.
the kind of pattern we're in right now would favor more an -origin system developing at higher latitude. deep tropics very oppressed right now, low level easterly flow fairly strong, pressures high. typical july.
HF 2117z06july
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Tak
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 41
Loc: Altamonte Springs, FL 28.66N 81.40W
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Add to that, Saharan dust surrounding Haiti, Dominican, and eastern Cuba. Plus a fair amount headed towards the MDR.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8g10split.html
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Hank has a good grip on the models~as always.
I just checked the 12Z runs, and the 00Z (last night's) run on the model.
It look like the area to watch for the weekend could possibly be the Western GOM. From the Yucatan Peninsula to Lake Charles,LA.
Of the 6 models at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ , At least two of the models bring an 850mb vortice (spin) into the Texas Coast, in the next 72 hours.
Other models take a weaker spin into Mexico. Locations range from the SW Lower Bay of Campeche to the Veracruz/ Tampico area.
These are only the H850mb vorticity runs. Excluding the shear and other factors.
And, these models are right at 12 hours old. With updates in about 4-5 hours. Something to watch.
Edited by danielw (Thu Jul 06 2006 08:31 PM)
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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Could you elaborate on and explain what you are talking about in more detail? It has been raining here "cats and dogs" for days and
we really would like the sun to come out. We do not need any more tropical moisture.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I've checked just about every NWS Office Area Forecast Discussion, and then some.
None of them mention any Tropical weather other than the possibility of a weak or tropical wave moving into the TX Coast areas over the weekend.
NWS Corpus mentioned the , and didn't really give it much of a nod.
NWS Galveston mentioned the tropical wave and a possible increase in the chance of rain. (Like SE TX needs more rain~danielw).
NWS Mobile mentioned the front stalling out and a slight possibility of heavy rain on or just off of the AL/ NW FL Coast. (They think that this might be due to feedback in the model)
NWS Tampa also mentioned an area of moderate to heavy rain off of the Panhandle area.
I checked the Buoy model forecasts and the only buoys I could find with any significant wind were off of the Port Arthur and W GOM buoys. Winds are forecast to be around 23knots.
Edited by danielw (Thu Jul 06 2006 09:27 PM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 1020
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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It's been all zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzs so far this month, to be sure. As far as the models go, I'll give a little extra weight to in light of how well it predicted Alberto, and thus, it's subtle development into the western GOMex interests me. In addition, stalling fronts always catch my attention, as well. Otherwise, I'm still hitting the snooze button. 
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dem05
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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I've had a chance to check in on the board here or there, but not a chance to post til now...Definately agree that the low off Florida's east coast and the Upper low in the NW Gulf have not been much to look at.
Otherwise, who can argue with persistance???Noticed that area off Nicaragua and Hondorus has maintained itself throughout the afternoon and evening. I've seen many a persistant blobs like this evolve into something over time...some without model support. So I wouldn't totally write this off yet. The area south of Cuba is really firing off nicely tonight too, so it will be interesting to see how the two areas will persist and affect each other. Maybe that's the game buster...they are quite close to one another. The area south of Cuba almost looks as interesting on satellite at this point this evening. Either way, no iminent development at this time in my opinion, but interesting to see some model support vis-a-vis the and for this area in the coming days. Final thought in the event something pops out of the NW Carribean, early runs of these models that picked up on Alberto, hinted on something developing and heading more toward the western gulf. With a front appraoching the southeast, and the flow looking to be more out of the south and southwest at this time...if something developed, the central and eastern gulf folks may have to eye this feature just as much as the folks on the western side of the pond.
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danielw
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Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Since you brought it up. I'll confess to being nearly glued to the Hond-raguan Coast and the area North of there.
While doing a satellite search, for a better view, I found a loop from the Grand Cayman Weather Service that was 24 hours old. That loop clearly showed a vortice (spin) in the area that is now under the Bright White Circle of convection in the Western Caribbean.
The object that caught my attention was the consistant brightness of the area. (The upper right hand corner of most of the pages has a US NAVY sat shot of the W Atlantic).
The persistantly consistant outflow-like fingers in almost, if not all quadrants, are very eye catching too.
edit: I can't seem to find the right size shot on the right satellite, to give an example of what I mentioned above.
The sat shot below is from Global Hydrology and Climate Center- NASA
Edited by danielw (Fri Jul 07 2006 02:09 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I may have trimmed too much on the zoom.
The area of bright white in the lower left corner of the above shot. Is moving toward the SW and appears to be holding together. This may be the primer for an E PAC system as well.
I made several posts earlier in the evening about the forecasts.
I didn't mention the Gale Warnings for winds above 34kts/ 39 mph, over the E Caribbean.
Part due to a steep pressure gradient, a tropical wave passing through the area, and part due to what the discussions are calling a fairly potent tropical wave due to arrive in the Lesser Antilles over the next 48 hours.
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 PM EDT THU JUL 06 2006
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 7N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
AMZ086-070930-
E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS
1130 PM EDT THU JUL 06 2006
...GALE WARNING S OF 15N W OF 72W...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=srh&wwa=gale%20warning
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dem05
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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If your still up...from the best I can tell on a not so great shortwave loop, there may be some attempts at at least some mid-level organization. (I saw not so great cause the West Carribean Loop is too far out and the floater is focused more on the south central gulf from that last disturbance in the area and the W Atlantic is a little too far out for great detail)...It's just the best I can gather from that. Anyhow, it looks like if something is a happenning, it is more than likely on the NW edge of the Nicaragua-Honduras Carribean side "Blob"
W Atlantic Shortwave Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html
Floater Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html
Edited by dem05 (Fri Jul 07 2006 02:41 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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It took me a bit to get the right configuration going. This link will cover the Caribbean, GOM and SW N Atlantic-West of 70 West.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get....pal&zoom=4
And a loop for the same area. 6 Frame loop. Should be okay on dialup.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get...;type=Animation
Edited by danielw (Fri Jul 07 2006 03:40 AM)
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dem05
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Excellent! I'd been looking at some of the NASA photos too, but not that perspective. That's pretty good. Noticed some of the t-storm activity was waning a bit on the SE (Edit, meant SE side not SW) side, but some more convection may be developing in between that area and the t-storms south of Cuba...a bit closer to where I'd suspect a mid-level low may be trying to come together. Moisture throughout the area deosn't seem to bee too unfavorable according to the vapor images. Also noticed the upper level low that was over the extreme west carrib several hours ago seem to be retrograding west and upper air winds were running mostly around 10-15 kts, maybe a high building overhead, but definately divergent at the least. With that said, I did notice on the shortware that low level clouds continue to move out of the southeast across the Yucatan, so the trades are definately still in place and no evidence of something below the mid levels as of now for sure. Well, I guess if the thunderstorms are still going as we go into tomorrow night, and we see some pressure falls (hadn't been checking on that as of yet) we'll know if were on to something that is making an attempt at development. Something to burn the midnight oil at the very least for now. Kinda does remind me of how Alberto came together though...and probably the most interesting area since the Carolina Low a week or so ago in my opinion.
Edited by dem05 (Fri Jul 07 2006 03:47 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I've seen several posts mentioning a tropical wave forecast to move toward/ into the Lesser Antilles.
This is the 0545Z Enhanced IR Global view. The bright red spot is centered, by satellite, near 10.0N/ 30.0W, at 0545Z. The GOES East Full updates every three hours.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfullir.html
Edited by danielw (Fri Jul 07 2006 03:56 AM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1020
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Ahhhh. The joys of Blob Mongering
And since YOU brought it back up .. see, it's your fault now.. (we'll just keep passing the buck, of course)
I've also been somewhat impressed with that NW Carib cluster. Seems associated with the entire eastery trof in the area. Shear values just to it's west are analyzed at under 20 knots. I do believe that a lot of that "outflow" you are seeing so far tonight is actually more unfriendly shearing outflow, than especially beneficial to tropical cyclogenesis.
I'm off to visit the sandman. It will be very interesting to see if it has persisted with any vigor overnight, and should that region of <20 knots persist, as well, Eastery Trof-related Blob will be encountering loop current under favorable shear.
Off perchance to dream of Easterly Blobs
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I guess some might call it toeing the mongering line.
These two areaas that I've posted on tonight seem to be the focus areas for " Possible" development.
I get rusty on my satellite meterology in the off season. And I'm inclined to agree with you on the 'outflow'. The outflow 'fingers/ wisps' are something that I've trained my eyes to look for. Especially on better developed systems.
And the PC of the TC.
PC=Persistantly consistant
TC= Tropical Cyclone or developing Tropical Cyclone.
Checking the W Caribbean Buoys.
42056 at 19.9N/ 85.1W, winds from the ESE 21kt gust to 27kts. Peak Gust 41kts. Pressure 1016.7mb down -0.3mb over 3 hours. Waves of 2meters period of 7sec
42057 at 16.8N/ 81.5W, winds from the ESE at 21kt gust 25kt. Peak gust 27kts. Pressure 1014.6mb, down -1.5mb over the last 3 hours. Waves-2.5meters. Period of 6 seconds.
Edited by danielw (Fri Jul 07 2006 04:20 AM)
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Edit: Daniel...We were on the same wavelength here I guess...Just posted the items below....
Did look at some Buoy Data, there's only 2 on the National Data Buoy Center Website...but seems to me like pressure falls this evening are in line with diurnal patterns and are nothing to write home about (They tend to go down at night, providing a link to a history plot for the last 5 days for each buoy below, if they keep going down during the day then hmmm) , on a side note, it also shows those trade winds are blowing pretty good out of the East and East Southeast...Here's a gaggle of links:
 NATIONAL DATA BUOY CENTER MAIN PAGE:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/rmd.shtml
WESTERN CARRIBEAN BUOY PAGE
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/West_Caribbean.shtml
WESTERN CARRIBEAN BUOY 42057
Data Buoy 42057: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057
5 day Pressure Plots for Buoy 42057: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42057&meas=pres&uom=E
5 day Wind Gust Plots for Buoy 42057: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42057&meas=wgst&uom=E
YUCATAN BASIN BUOY 42056
Data Buoy 42056: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056
5 day Pressure Plots for Buoy 42056: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42056&meas=pres&uom=E
5 day Wind Gust Plota for Buoy 42056: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42056&meas=wgst&uom=E
Edited by dem05 (Fri Jul 07 2006 04:40 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Oops, I'm slacking. I didn't check the diurnals on the buoys.
Just the latest report in text form.
I did notice earlier yesterday that ther must have been some heavy rain pass near the 2 westernmost bouys. Their air temp, dew point and heat indexes dropped like a rock. Without a cold front in the area in would almost have to be a rain storm.
Speaking of cool fronts. I saw a mention in one of the NWS AFDs that it's very rare to have a cool front pass into the GOM in July. I'll take the cool air. But I'd rather not have it cause any cyclogenesis!
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Just thought I'd attach a jpeg showing some of what I've been seeing...The L represents mid level activity not surface activity.
P.S. No Invest, and 5:30 wasn't too excitied about the area, so Blobologist...maybe I'm guilty as charged...we'll see what happens today :-)
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