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Tropical Depression Two in unfavorible conditions, likely to fall apart or dissipate tomorrow.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 21 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3196 (8 y 9 m) (Wilma)
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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Off the East Coast
      #68102 - Mon Jul 17 2006 10:03 AM

July has featured extreme heat across the country and a bevy of tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific, but nothing noteworthy in the Atlantic. That may change in the first part of this week. Some not-so-threatening action is showing up off the U.S. East Coast, and a tropical system may form by tomorrow.
A new invest, 97L, has been dubbed for the area of disturbed weather consisting of a weak, strung-out low and some thunderstorms along a dying front. In the linked image that would be the area roughly east of Charleston and south of Hatteras. Further northeast a more impressive low pressure area is likely generating gales and has an area of deep convection--the hurricane center has referred to it as not likely to develop before it reaches cooler water. Usually that means that even if it does 'develop' they'll not pay it much heed. It could be argued that it is a tropical system, but it will probably be mentioned just as before in the outlooks until it is gone regardless of what it does. Maybe one for post-analysis. It is moving out to sea and should be over much cooler water by tonight.

NW Atlantic



97L may linger off the coast if shortwaves fail to trap it--the jet is far to the north and it is in a bit of a col region. It may nudge out to sea, but early guidance has the 'squashed spider' look that NHC often refers to-it may just hover in place or drift about. There is a good bit of dry air nearby and some shear, so it could very well just sputter and do nothing.

South Florida Water Management District--early model runs on Invest 97L

There is a strong wave that can be seen approaching the islands around 60 W on the same image that is undergoing shear and won't do anything for the next couple of days--and models don't deem it likely to in the future.
Another strong wave can be seen leaving Africa this morning. The convection with it will probably die as it moves offshore over marginal waters, and maybe reappear further west as it nears the islands. This region doesn't seem ready to do anything yet, and it will likely be another month before much really happens out there.

'Some excellent images of the Atlantic basin have been posted by Weather456 in the Storm Forum .'

MOE models from FSU's Meteorology Dept.
NHC's Satellite Page
RAMSDIS Satellite Imagery from ColoState
NASA GHCC Imagery Page

97L:

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot

Animated Model Plot of 97L

SFWMD Modl Plot
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system

Edited by MikeC (Mon Jul 17 2006 06:32 PM)


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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sun
Posts: 61
Re: Off the East Coast [Re: HanKFranK]
      #68104 - Mon Jul 17 2006 10:17 AM

The system east of Cape Cod sure looks organized and tropical enough to be a named TD/storm. Why should it matter if it is heading for colder water? If it should be named, then name it.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Off the East Coast [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #68105 - Mon Jul 17 2006 10:30 AM

The low/gale off the Northeast, just like the one off the Carolinas, is analyzed along a dying stationary front. It could be stricken from the TC criteria just by that. Of course when you look at it's deep convection, tight wind field, and tropical appearance that confuses the issue. If I was the NHC I'd call it a subtropical cyclone because it doesn't appear to meet all the tropical criteria but comes close... but NHC only uses that designation for nonfrontal entities historically. So, what you have there is by the conventional definitions, technically a run-of-the-mill frontal low.
Nope, doesn't make complete sense, but that's how the game works.
HF 1430z17july


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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sun
Posts: 61
Re: Off the East Coast [Re: HanKFranK]
      #68107 - Mon Jul 17 2006 10:46 AM

You are right about the frontal nature of the system. As I type this the system is beginning to lose its tropical characteristics and looks like a typical tropical(formerly tropical) storm recurving into the north Atlantic, with the convection being pushed east and north of the center by strong shear and cooler and drier air being pulled in behind the system. That said, pre-dawn this morning I would also have called it a subtropical depression or weak storm with the well-defined circulation and blob of deep convection directly (briefly) over the center. Too late now unless they want to upgrade it at the end of the season like they did with storm #28 last year.

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: Off the East Coast [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #68109 - Mon Jul 17 2006 11:05 AM

That system off Cape Cod arguably should be a tropical or at least subtropical storm.


That wave around 60W looks impressive today. What are its possibilities? Will it bring more rain to Florida?

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Off the East Coast [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #68110 - Mon Jul 17 2006 11:36 AM

11:30 TWO in part. Now talking about the NC/SC area moving northward...wasn't it NE before?

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CONTINUES A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY ACQUIRE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OR DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF
NECESSARY. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Off the coast of africa, very impressive! and 97L [Re: Ed in Va]
      #68113 - Mon Jul 17 2006 12:39 PM

Well just saw the most impressive wave yet off the coast of Africa. It's got a circulation and convection is blossoming. Unlike the last wave the IR shows a circle of red around the center. This one needs to be watched. Plus 97L. New it was gonna be an invest area today. Now models pushing it in the southeast coastline??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/rb-l.jpg

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re: Amazed [Re: Ed in Va]
      #68114 - Mon Jul 17 2006 12:54 PM

TPC didn't say ANYTHING about the impressive blowup NE of the Islands and also, arguably ,the best organized, hottest looking wave off Africa so far this yr. Looks like it will run into dust and cooler waters, but right now it looks like a TD...and the system NE of the Leewards is quite impressive in it's own right.

Agree with other posters on system SW of NS....I wonder if last seasons glut of storms has had a boomerang or rubberband effect of leading NHC to be much more conservative with classifying systems than last year? I mean, two years in a row with WAY higher activity would be something....especially if the numbers started running high now like they did then...

MM

Edited by MapMaster (Mon Jul 17 2006 12:54 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Amazed, now I see where 97L actually is! [Re: MapMaster]
      #68115 - Mon Jul 17 2006 01:27 PM

I was looking at the image and all I saw was nothing but storms but then I look very closely and find a swirl of convection strengthening by the way and right now just stationary. I think they should make a TD out of the wave off of Africa soon. Even though it's probably gonna weaken. Really looks impressive to me. Wave w60 looks impressive as well today. Is this a start of the so called "active Hurricane Season 2006"?

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 399
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Amazed [Re: MapMaster]
      #68116 - Mon Jul 17 2006 01:40 PM

Quote:

TPC didn't say ANYTHING about the impressive blowup NE of the Islands and also, arguably ,the best organized, hottest looking wave off Africa so far this yr. Looks like it will run into dust and cooler waters, but right now it looks like a TD...and the system NE of the Leewards is quite impressive in it's own right.

Agree with other posters on system SW of NS....I wonder if last seasons glut of storms has had a boomerang or rubberband effect of leading NHC to be much more conservative with classifying systems than last year? I mean, two years in a row with WAY higher activity would be something....especially if the numbers started running high now like they did then...

MM




It's always possible but I don't really buy it. as HF mentioned, the storm off of Nova Scotia and transitioning. In addition, the NHC has always been cautious about naming storms without some good reasoning. Plus with post analysis, it's always a decent shot to revise the numbers later.

The wave at 60W looks nice, but doesn't seem to be organized yet. and the wave at 20W looks more like a complex of thunderstorms that are moving offshore. Give it a day or two, if it's still there, then it'll be worth more time.

Happily, this season doesn't have any earmarks of a hyperactive year, just a normal active one. I just be happy my numbers are going to be way off. Though I still think we're entering a phase with above normal late season storms (be it from water temprature or weather patterns or just increased awareness of those storms).

-Mark

--------------------
TD/TS/HU/MH
16/15/09/04 <- My prediction (2013 Predictions)
00/00/00/00 <- Year Totals

http://blog.bloodstar.org


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Amazed [Re: Bloodstar]
      #68117 - Mon Jul 17 2006 02:54 PM

hmm... the system south of NS...i think they will go back at the end of the year and give it a sub-tropical classification..... its is very well defined.... and looks like center is trying to catch back up with convection....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/vis.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rgb.html

also noted on recon page... they expect an invest tomorrow and a possible cyclone on wed. (B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE) with low level invest near D. 32.0N 075.5W


Recon plan Plan of the Day

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Amazed [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #68118 - Mon Jul 17 2006 03:12 PM

Invest 97L , right now I don't buy into much happen with this system, even the models are not sure.

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Amazed yet not too amzed anymore [Re: Old Sailor]
      #68119 - Mon Jul 17 2006 03:17 PM

hmm.... I'm not interested in this area much anymore. Though something like Alberto could flare up but it is a slim chance. The wave near Cape Verde Islands has weakened just a tad. Though it's not moving north anymore. Needs to be watched.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1070
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Off the East Coast [Re: HanKFranK]
      #68120 - Mon Jul 17 2006 03:53 PM

I've also noticed that NHC doesn't seem to like to moniker subtropical systems unless they stand a pretty decent chance of fully transitioning to tropical. I respect this, as I suspect it helps keep continuity over the decades, and as such, I think this keeps the "count" somewhat more real.

All that said, it looks as if the front has washed out enough to consider the NS Low it's own entity, and thus it ranks as a subtropical storm in my book.. "technically," anyway.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1070
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Off the coast of africa, very impressive! and 97L [Re: allan]
      #68121 - Mon Jul 17 2006 03:55 PM

Yeah, that puppy is very impressive. Still, it's not quite Cape Verde season, and the waters are a little cooler out that way. Upper level winds may eat it, too.

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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: 97L may be going soon [Re: cieldumort]
      #68122 - Mon Jul 17 2006 04:51 PM

TAFB 2100utc map has dropped any area of possible activity...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/danger_atl_latestBW.gif

...and the wave of Africa does look very healthy.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2

Edited by Storm Cooper (Mon Jul 17 2006 04:59 PM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Off the coast of africa, very impressive! and 97L [Re: cieldumort]
      #68123 - Mon Jul 17 2006 05:01 PM

I agree that the wave just off Africa is the most impressive wave so far.There does not appear to be any dust or dry air in front of it,unlike other waves before.The SST'S are a little cool,But I think they maybe warm enough to support development.We will have to wait a few days to see if she will hold together.I think our little vacation is about to end soon. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/WV/20.jpg

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Mon Jul 17 2006 05:11 PM)


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Off the coast of africa, very impressive! and 97L [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #68125 - Mon Jul 17 2006 05:09 PM

The wave just off Africa is showing LLC but at this time of yr Most strong waves this close to Aftrica tend to move in a North to NW Direction..

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Off the coast of africa, very impressive! and 97L [Re: Old Sailor]
      #68127 - Mon Jul 17 2006 06:33 PM

The wave looks like its moving due west. Doesnt look like its hitting dry air but lets give it a day before we start worrying about it. I still think we should watch 97L. Just incase a blow up of storms happens tonight. You know how when we take our eyes off these things earlier, we get surprised lol.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
early evening, 17 july [Re: Old Sailor]
      #68130 - Mon Jul 17 2006 06:57 PM

the NHC guys are really going to have to rethink that 'nontropical' system off nova scotia as of now. even though it's crossed over cooler SSTs, still blowing deep convection near a tight center, and outflow aloft is apparent as well. too many hallmarks of a tropical cyclone to ignore. i can tell ya from experience that what is attached to it isn't much of a front. high temps here were only off about five degrees from yesterday, and the dewpoints are about the same in the 70s. kinda wish they'd get stuff when it's happening and not tell us that they changed their minds later. seems like this one was judged by 'it's going to move over cooler water' rather than a realistic look at it's structure--not a pure barotropic critter but miles away from an air-mass separating frontal low. if a ship caught the center of that thing, it probably experienced a 40-kt tropical storm.
further south 97L is about where it was yesterday, if a tad south. there isn't as much convection overall, but what is there is closer to the center. it still looks elongated, but whatever frontal boundary was there yesterday is likely washed out into trough. pressures near the center likely 1013-1015 mb.. maybe a closed isobar if that. it's weak, in other words. this seventh invest of the season is dealing with nowhere near the trouble 91L was 3-4 weeks ago... chances of it becoming a tropical cyclone are probably somewhat better. i wouldn't expect it to inside of 12/18 hr, but late tomorrow into wednesday if it's still there it'll probably be more than an invest. it's sort of stuck where it is until the next trough amplifies in the east late in the week. the BAMM and BAMD want to take it westward before that... NAM takes it NW to NC. most of the big globals don't really see it or initialize it close to right.
a little confounding is the wave near 60w. it really blew up today in a big diffluent region in front of an upper low. both GFS, NAM, and UKMET have the feature develop a surface low out near bermuda, which if it really were to occur from this system would alter the ridge and affect 97L by tugging at it from the east. i guess it's possible, but that wave has a ways to go before it has anything at the surface.
big blow up in the sw carib, going over nicaragua. if central america weren't in it's way it would pop up just like all of its eastpac brethren.. as is likely on hold until it can cross and fall in behind.. well, should have emilia by then, so i guess it would be fabio. fabio, right. this is last year's july atlantic assault back where it should be... and where it doesn't amount to squat, usually.
wave out near the CV is all 100% hype until it gets out over the marginal waters and dry environment of the east atlantic and does something besides vaporize. it's really well defined though... we'd be talking about the next storm in 2-3 days if it were august 17 and not july 17. something to care about when it gets west of 50W maybe. there's another coming down the pipe in a couple of days. same prog.
so, as far as classified storms go tonight.. nil atlantic. tomorrow.. maaaaybe.
HF 2257z17july


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