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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Beryl Crosses over Nantucket
      #68295 - Fri Jul 21 2006 06:52 AM

July 23 Update

There is a system in the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that may have a chance to develop later as upper level winds are becoming more favorible for the system to develop.



What would keep it from developing, is the proximity to land, and the fact that it should eventually drift westward over Mexico or extreme southern Texas. There is time to watch it.

Chance of Bay of Campeche Are to develop in next 24-48 hours.
Code:

forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-----*----------------]



Original Update
Overnight, the center of Beryl managed to cross over the island of Nantucket off the Massachusetts coastline, top windspeeds suggested around a 50mph storm. No real surge issues were reported, but it still remains the first northeastern storm in a few years.

It is now moving toward Nova Scotia in Canada, and is in transition to an extratropical storm now.



Outside of Beryl, there is nothing else immediately imminent for development.

Event Related Links
Canadian Hurricane Centre

Radar Imagery
Corpus Christi, TX
Brownsville, TX
Houston/Galveston, TX

98L:

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot of 98L
SFWMD Model Plot
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Beryl Crosses over Nantucket [Re: MikeC]
      #68298 - Fri Jul 21 2006 10:27 AM

Hard pressed to find any rainfall amounts on land of over 0.50"; Nantucket itself only had 0.52" as of 10a ET. No sustained winds to tropical storm force have been recorded on land to my knowledge; Nantucket had a sustained peak at 33mph. Really, Beryl is and was a non-event for the northeast and is now heading out to sea as a transitioning cyclone.

Nothing else in the Atlantic is threatening.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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chuck
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
Loc: st petersburg ,fl.
Re: Beryl Crosses over Nantucket [Re: MikeC]
      #68299 - Fri Jul 21 2006 11:43 AM

It appears a surface low may be forming west of Dry Totugas,where there have been ss/w winds @ 13 knots over the last hour @ bouy #plsf1.

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Beryl Crosses over Nantucket [Re: MikeC]
      #68310 - Sat Jul 22 2006 11:47 AM

Nothing of any imminent organization in the Gulf. I find myself looking at area in the Central Gulf. Wondering if there is a chance for something to start showing up there in the next day or so. I do have a feeling that once the storms start forming, we may get them in bunches this season. Could be a feast or famine type season.

--------------------
Jim


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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Beryl Crosses over Nantucket [Re: Rasvar]
      #68311 - Sat Jul 22 2006 11:58 AM

The BOC may become a little interesting. The 11:30am TWO began to speak of some interest there as opposed to the 5:30am outlook.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Jul 22 2006 12:10 PM)


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Beryl Crosses over Nantucket [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #68314 - Sat Jul 22 2006 12:29 PM

It looks like an upperlevel swirl there off the east coast of the peninsula may interfere with anything organizing for a little while...unless they get together and stack....I don't know that it will happen or if it could happen. I hope not.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Invest 98L [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #68321 - Sun Jul 23 2006 08:37 AM

Invest in the BOC to tinker with now. As said on the Main Page... it does not have much room to develop but it is there none the less.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Invest 98L [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #68322 - Sun Jul 23 2006 09:45 AM

this area i think is going needed to be watched.... i thought by now the BOC would be a good area for something to try to form... the SST's are very warm.... the Upper Level Conditions are becoming a little more favorable..... i just trying to figure how much the Cyclone to the west of it will affect it? Of course it across the mountains and in the EPAC....

Floater 1 Penn State / NRL (GOES 12 Vis)

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0830 AM EDT SUN 23 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUL 2006

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 24/1530Z
D. 23.0N 97.0W
E. 24/1730Z TO 25/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc24_latestBW.gif


--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Jul 23 2006 09:51 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Invest 98L [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #68324 - Sun Jul 23 2006 10:06 AM

also i am going to keep an eye on the low level spinn/low (tropical wave) crossing the atlantic... around 15n 40w.... its kinda on the line of dry/moist air in the water Vapor.... and i think a few models are slightly picking up on it... it should continue west and if it survives in the track through the large area of Saharan Dust that stretchs from Africa to the islands in the Central Atlantic, it would be near the islands in a few days..... moving west


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Jul 23 2006 10:16 AM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Invest 98L [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #68326 - Sun Jul 23 2006 01:16 PM

wow, they put an invest on that little smudge of clouds after the thing right before beryl got ignored? it's really close to the coast, but most of the globals are taking the disturbed area northward into texas. upper air profile along the way is modestly favorable to good. of course it is going to stay close to the coast. i'd leave the odds against it.
i'm a little more interested, like some of the others here, in the strong wave nearing 40w. it's got a very broad circulation.. no real convection right now because it's in the midst of the saharan-origin airmass that dominates the southeastern north atlantic. i'd expect it to reactivate some further west. globals it this point are seeing it as a wave and not a developer.. just the canadian develops it. if it does anything, should be a break in the ridge near the east coast (most models think at this point), which would probably recurve it sharply just short of florida, had it developed by that point.
general pattern in the GFS for the extended period is a strong zonal ridge across the atlantic subtropics. it's also becoming slightly more accepting of african waves trying to develop... correct response for the season. maybe some intermittent activity going into early/mid august from the tropics.
FYI, check out the official track on hurricane daniel in the eastpac. it's crossing into the hawaiian responsibility zone soon, much stronger than anticipated at this point. seems the ridge out there is holding more than models were predicting (noting for future ref.) it may be near the hawaiian islands around july 29 or so. waters only marginal out there, so it should slowly spin down to something much weaker.
HF 1714z23july


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Invest 98L [Re: HanKFranK]
      #68328 - Sun Jul 23 2006 05:57 PM

Right now, the only thing of true interest for the United States is Hurricane Daniel in the E. Pacific, nearing 140W. As of 5p ET, the NHC five-day forecast position is just east of Honolulu with winds of 60mph. Normally we don't talk about E. Pacific storms here on the main thread, but the one exception is for storms potentially impacting Hawaii -- such as in this case. The feature in the Bay of Campeche is fairly disorganized and likely to be impacted (at least for the next two days) by the developing T.S. Emilia in the E. Pacific, a relatively large storm with a rather substantial expanse toward the east. Nothing else is threatening in the Atlantic basin as of right now and looks to remain that way for the next few days, potentially until the wave in the central Atlantic gets into a more favorable region for development. For long-term prospects, see HF's note above.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Invest 98L [Re: Clark]
      #68329 - Sun Jul 23 2006 06:34 PM

It's hard to believe that last year at this time, we were talking about Gert.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1090
Loc: Lexington, Ky 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Invest 98L [Re: HanKFranK]
      #68330 - Sun Jul 23 2006 07:13 PM

I am marginally interested also with what is cooking in the north-central GOMEX this afternoon, as well. Being that 98L is so sheared, I wonder if they do scrub the flight. However, if we get a 99L out of the convection brewing to it's northeast, it would be very interesting to see if they choose to make a pass through both areas.

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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 115
Loc: Mobile,Alabama 30.77N 88.14W
Re: Invest 98L [Re: cieldumort]
      #68331 - Sun Jul 23 2006 08:21 PM

This is what I have found off the Bouy Page site.
42002 29.90 ESE
42019 29.86 SE
42001 29.94 SW

So look like the pressure in the GOM is falling at most stations. Will be interesting to see what become's out of any of this.

Edited by Hurricane Fredrick 1979 (Sun Jul 23 2006 08:24 PM)


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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Invest 98L [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #68332 - Sun Jul 23 2006 08:47 PM

Looking at 98L it seems to be lacking convection tonight... but...I never say never anymore. I believe the pressure falls may be more of a normal nocturnal occurrence...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Jul 23 2006 08:52 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Invest 98L [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #68338 - Sun Jul 23 2006 09:54 PM

A rather quick check of the buoys in the Western GOM. I think the low pressures that you are seeing are probably related to the trough in the Northern GOM. Possibly some interaction with the front that has stalled just north of the Coastal areas. The pressure are indeed lower than they should be at this time of day.

Appears that the lowest pressure are found near the 88 W longitude line. Which is removed from the 98L area by several hundred miles.

That's just a quick check. I'll look further. Really need another hour or so to see if they will remain lower than normal for the last 3-5 days.

I did notice a marked increase in the wind speeds from the BOC Buoy.
Near calm 3 hours ago, and are now at 10 knots. 3-5 day graph indicates they normally fall near 00Z each day...but not to calm.
The speeds went from calm to 5.8kts in the first hour and are now at 9.7 kts.
The only other buoy parameter that changed during this time period was the wind direction.
Buoy is indicating a backing wind.
2050Z wind from SSW.
2350Z wind from East.
0050Z wind from NE.

( Backing wind direction is counterclockwise.
Veering wind direction is clockwise.)
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Invest 98L [Re: danielw]
      #68342 - Sun Jul 23 2006 10:54 PM

unless something appears overnight.... i would suspect recon flight from AF to be canceled for monday.... the wave in the atlantic is still holding on.. and a few storms fired up near it.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Other Areas [Re: Clark]
      #68343 - Sun Jul 23 2006 10:55 PM

As Clark and Hank have mentioned. Hurricane Daniel ( No Relation) area of responsibility shifts to the CPHC ( Central Pacific Hurricane Center) after Daniel crosses the 140W longitude line. Per the latest Honolulu AFD they are estimating this to be around Midnight ( Hawaiian Time). Forecast is still in the wind, on when, and where Daniel's track will be over the next 3-5 days.

Tropical Wave near 15-22N/ 39W is getting a good bit of attention from the various Forecast Centers.
Although the absence of convection doesn't lead you directly to this wave. The circulation is visible.
Odd development of covection to the SW of the center. Near 13N/ 44W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/jsl-l.jpg
Latest IR Loop indicates the system may be getting a nudge to the SW from an mid/ upper level system moving off of the African Coast.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/ir4-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir4.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

FZNT23 KNHC 240134
OFFNT3

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND TROPICAL NORTH
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006 (edited~danielw)
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 7N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W MOVING W 15 KT TO ALONG 82W MON...AND THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS TUE. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W MOVING W 12 KT TO ALONG 68W MON...73W TUE...78W WED...85W THU AND W OF AREA FRI. TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL ATLC MOVE W 15 KT INTO TROPICAL ATLC WATERS LATE TUE...INTO E CARIBBEAN WED AND THU...AND WRN CARIBBEAN FRI.

SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 75W
1130 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006
...GALE WARNING N OF 12N E OF 77W...
E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS
1130 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006
...GALE WARNING S OF 15N W OF 73W...

SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
1130 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY RIDGE FROM BERMUDA TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH MON NIGHT SHIFTS N TO ALONG 27N TUE...ALONG 28N WED AND ALONG 30N THU AND FRI. TROPICAL WAVE MOVE W 15 KT ALONG 76W S OF 21N THROUGH MON REACHING W OF CAY SAL BANK MON NIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVE INTO EXTREME SE WATERS MON NIGHT REACHING NEAR WINDWARD PASSAGE WED NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH CAY SAL BANK BY FRI.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml?


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Other Areas [Re: danielw]
      #68346 - Mon Jul 24 2006 11:16 AM

For the past week of so, JB has been hinting around the return of EL Nino. DOes anyone else see signs of this, and will it have a significant effect on the rest of the season.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Other Areas [Re: Fletch]
      #68347 - Mon Jul 24 2006 11:39 AM

Possible depression per 11:30 TWO:

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED JUST EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS
INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND NOAA BUOYS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE RECORDED WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO
50 MPH THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS
OFFSHORE.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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