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Tracking Invest 94L east of the bahamas, with a very low chance for development (20%). No real model support.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 8 (Barry) , Major: 284 (Michael) Florida - Any: 284 (Michael) Major: 284 (Michael)
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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 308
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: 99L [Re: Dr. Steve Schneider]
      #68509 - Fri Jul 28 2006 08:32 AM

Yes there is a nice blowup of convection in the eastern/central Caribbean, and we'll have to see if upper level winds become more favorable. This is in association with the wave that is moving westward, but to which the southern extent is slowing down. 99L is looking fairly healthy this morning, though I have to disagree as to the location that the NRL has the Invest. I see a circulation in the convection at or near 36W, not at 31.5W as they show. Got a feeling this is Chriss in the making. Here we go.

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Dr. Steve Schneider
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 5
Re: 99L [Re: Steve H1]
      #68510 - Fri Jul 28 2006 08:43 AM

Quote:

Yes there is a nice blowup of convection in the eastern/central Caribbean, and we'll have to see if upper level winds become more favorable. This is in association with the wave that is moving westward, but to which the southern extent is slowing down. 99L is looking fairly healthy this morning, though I have to disagree as to the location that the NRL has the Invest. I see a circulation in the convection at or near 36W, not at 31.5W as they show. Got a feeling this is Chriss in the making. Here we go.





Indeed, you maybe right

But lets not jump the gun. I havent checked conditions ahead of it. I watched 2 other systems/waves over the last week go through that area and when they hit a few more degree's west they poof. But lets watch and see.


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Black Pearl
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 32
Loc: Mobile Bay
Re: 99L [Re: Dr. Steve Schneider]
      #68512 - Fri Jul 28 2006 12:42 PM

Floater 1 is on 99L.

Floater One


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 145
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: 99L [Re: Black Pearl]
      #68513 - Fri Jul 28 2006 12:58 PM

The last few frames of floater one http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html seem to show a closed rotation.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 961
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: 99L [Re: Doombot!]
      #68515 - Fri Jul 28 2006 02:45 PM

You could be right there may be a vortex which puts a westerly component into it...I think it will have to develop a definite w to sw component for it to be a closed low however...could be wrong on that

--------------------
doug


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: 99L [Re: doug]
      #68517 - Fri Jul 28 2006 09:48 PM

Nothing real impressive tonight as I can see but things can be very different into the weekend as we are getting close to the peak...the wave train should be really going in the next couple of weeks.



--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Fri Jul 28 2006 10:09 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 99L [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #68519 - Fri Jul 28 2006 10:22 PM

99L has elongated East to West considerably since this morning.
At least One low level circulation is visible in the Unenhanced IR Channel 4 loop.
Last frame, of current loop is 0145Z, and One of the Low level circulation is centered near 7.5N/ 42.0W.

I say "one of the circulation centers" as last night there appeared to be Two circulations in the wave.

Remote possibility of a Second circulation (mid-level) near 7.5N/ 45.0W at 0145Z.

IR Channel 4 Still Image
IR Channel 4 short loop


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: 99L [Re: danielw]
      #68520 - Fri Jul 28 2006 11:04 PM

A part of the 10:30pm TWO...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1275 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.




--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by danielw (Sat Jul 29 2006 02:20 AM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: 99L [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #68522 - Sat Jul 29 2006 12:19 AM

like most waves this time of year, 99L is trucking west. it hasn't gained any appreciable latittude since yesterday, and although it looks a bit better organized, it's going to have to get north of 10N soon or it will be plowing into venezuela. if it isn't organized by tomorrow evening, don't look for much out of it. if it does get organized, the caribbean should be another big hurdle for it... shear will be a larger factor further west. right now i'd say the back flank of it appears to be where a circulation exists... maybe the low mentioned in the TWD. decent convective activity is firing nearby, so it should at least maintain through the night.
right now i'd put this thing's development chances at 3 in 10.
other waves in the caribbean are fighting shear and not showing any organization. the trades really slow near central america, so any part flareup along one of these waves closer to the yucatan could merit interest. otherwise it's on to the pacific with the wave energy, and that's all folks.
daniel never made it's comeback. there are a couple more eastpac areas trying to act up. more action over there could signal an atlantic response. this close to august, something to consider. tonight we're in the green, though.
HF 0419z29july


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 99L [Re: HanKFranK]
      #68523 - Sat Jul 29 2006 03:14 AM

Latest SHIPS and SHF5 forecast are forecasting 99L to be at or near, Minimal CAT 1 hurricane intensity at 120 hrs, or 5 days, (Wednesday Night). This is the 29/ 00Z run.

Forecast on the 120 hour position vary from 14N/ 70-75W (CLP5 and BAMD), to 19N/ 74W (BAMS), and back toward the east to 17N/ 64W (BAMM).
For some reason LBAR has been zig zagging over the last 24 hours of model runs. The lastest LBAR forecast position is just NE of Puerto Rico at 120 hours.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/%7Evigh/guidance/index.htm

(DISCLAIMER: By using this web site (any pages under http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/), you agree to release and indemnify the owner of this page (Jonathan Vigh) from any and all liability, damage, or loss arising from your use of, or any decisions based on, this web site. The model guidance products on this page are derived from various numerical weather prediction models or statistical methods. They come from multiple numerical weather prediction centers around the world and their status may be operational or experimental. These models are frequently prone to LARGE errors. ABSOLUTELY NO GUARANTEES are made as to the accuracy or timeliness of this data. None of the information here should be considered as official guidance -- DO NOT USE FOR LIFE AND DEATH DECISIONS! For official storm information including watches and warnings, rely on the National Hurricane Center, your local National Weather Service office, and your local emergency officials.)


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: 99L [Re: danielw]
      #68524 - Sat Jul 29 2006 04:58 AM

This one appears to be one of our strongest candidates for development we've seen this year....At least from the perspective of tropical waves traversing the deep atlantic. The systems signature does seem to be slowly improving overtime. Based on current structure, I'd give it a 6 out of 10 for development right now and I think development odds will increase should thunderstorm activity increase around the approximate area of lowest pressures.
With respect to direction over the next several days. I'd favor movement more along the southern end of the models. I suggest this because another weak wave with weak cyclonic signature is approximately 800 miles of so to the ENE of 99L. Might be just enough to impose a slight Fujiwara affect...and maintain the system on a west of west northwest motion versus a true wnw motion.


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: 99L [Re: dem05]
      #68525 - Sat Jul 29 2006 06:40 AM Attachment (280 downloads)

I wanted to post a drawing to explain waht I was getting at in the last post. I'm putting it here. Sorry it is not as crisp as I'd like. I did it in Word, then scanned it to save as a JPEG. The Fujiwara affect is typically associated to tropical cyclones (remeber this is only a tropical low and a tropical wave) which come close enough to each other that their wind flow affect each others path. Essentially, the front runner will move with a stronger westerly component and the one behind will move with a stronger northern component than expected. This is best witnessed when tropical cyclones are about 700-1000 miles from one another.

Otherwise, Eastern Carribean wave did get some slightly increased interest via a moderate environment in the 530 TWO.

Edited by dem05 (Sat Jul 29 2006 06:52 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: 99L [Re: dem05]
      #68526 - Sat Jul 29 2006 07:41 AM

TAFB put a PSBL on the 24hr Surface Forecast....
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc24_latestBW.gif
but i think its needs to gain some north latitude... or like other's say... its coming close to the South American Coast.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/danger_atl_latestBW.gif

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Jul 29 2006 07:44 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: 99L [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #68527 - Sat Jul 29 2006 07:55 AM

one thing i notice is this morning runs....00 or 06 UTC.. globals are trying to bring a strong wave of Africa in the 4-6 Day range... Looks like it could be the strongest yet this year... will have to see if this keeps showing up in the models or not in the next few runs.... so far this year.. things flare up then a few days later it disappears in the models....

here's 144hr on the GFS 06utc july 29 144hrs

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: 99L [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #68528 - Sat Jul 29 2006 08:03 AM

Well, on the fast track...it is still about 3 days from getting too close to South America. Even if the Fujiwara type effect I discussed earlier were to continue for 72 hours, I do believe it this tropical low will gain the 3 or so degrees latitude needed to avoid South America between now and then. By nature, this low will gain slightly more latitude as it strengthes and over time,it will be afforded some further opportunity to gain that latitude as the wave behind it increases latitude slightly (and that wavemay totally wash out with time). With that west of west nothwest monvement, I expect the bulk of this tropical low would pass through the lower half of the windwards.

Edited by dem05 (Sat Jul 29 2006 08:07 AM)


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