craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 237
Loc: Sinajana, Guam 13.46N 144.74E
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Here is some more backup for 99L doing something. This an 85GHz image, from earlier this morning. picking up on ice crystals and water droplets in convective systems. This instrument can see through cold cloud tops and cold cirrus that form over large T-storms. 99L is showing a lot more structure than the area near PR (not saying that won't change). Notice the banding features to the T-storms. Unfortunately polar satellites only pass over the same spot approx. every 12 Hrs.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/SS85/20.jpg
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Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 797
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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Looking at the U of Wisconsin products this morning and seeing that shear in the vicinities of both features has decreased over the last 24 hours. Both areas still have potential to develop. Things could be getting interesting.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual: 1/0/0
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
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first time i have seen the do something with 99l GFDL invest99l 2006073000 this morning..... and globals are still being aggressive with a wave coming off Africa in a few days
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Jul 30 2006 08:02 AM)
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 237
Loc: Sinajana, Guam 13.46N 144.74E
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Does anyone know why the SSD page is calling 99L 92L??
different agencies, not always on the same page. independent assessment of it's classification, too. the number may be different, but coords in the same area. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Jul 30 2006 12:30 PM)
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ElizabethH
Meteorologist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
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The wave off Africa in the next few days is the only thing any of the global models are going with. They don't seem to be big fans of the two waves we and the are watching....
A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT
650 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY OVER PORTIONS PUERTO
RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA.
TWO 530 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006
There also seems to be some convective flare ups this morning around the caribbean wave. Most likely see this continuing throughout today
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
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i think thats a web site error on the SSD page.... its been there a few days now... the NAVY and runs are calling it 99L..... been trying to see if i can find a "center" spin on the wave... and i think i found it.... Ramdis Storm Floater has a close-up that i would say a center is trying to form near....51w 12n? ish... there is new storms... but looking at the surface in the Vis... i think i am starting to see a low level good spin... anyone else see this?
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RMTC_BAR_2km_vis.html
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RMTC_BAR_2km_ir2.html
although there is still some good shear above the wave...
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Jul 30 2006 01:16 PM)
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
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Saturday PM run of the modelturns this wave into Chris (tropical storm )by Monday night, when it crosses through the Leeward Islands near Guadeloupe. The then brings the tropical storm across the Dominican Republic on Wednesday night. None of the other models buy this solution, and predict that wind shear and dry air will keep this wave from developing. That is my expectation as well. Even if the wave does develop, a strong upper-level cold low north of the Bahamas will bring very hostile wind shear to any storm that tries to approach the U.S. East Coast. The model reflects this, and has the storm weakening as it crosses into the Bahama Islands late in the week.
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W.D. Duncan
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
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yeah, but i think the ULL is forecast to move to the west towards the GOM... or into the GOM... which in time will be moving out of the way of the tropical wave. I think 99L will just ride the ridge...and if it can fight the shear... which it may get a chance in a day or so... its also got to fight the dry air to the north.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png (interesting most bring it to a TS in less than 72 hrs except the avn)
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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different model solutions on what's about to happen in the new week. if the mess currently in the caribbean begets a system it will confuse the picture for oncoming 99L. i don't think that it's quite as likely to be successful as 99L, but even if something tries to form it could dimple the ridge or create something to tug at the oncoming candidate.
my best estimate right now as to what will happen:
the feature in the caribbean is sort of 'split'.. some of the energy is near puerto rico/hispaniola and riding nw to n under ridging ahead of that upper low near the bahamas. there is minimal organization on this eastern part... shear should keep it from developing effectively. further west some is sliding under the upper low and may form another disturbance in the western caribbean. only suspect shows it doing anything, but a system forming over there would be serious trouble. fortunately no organization and it's just a phantom on one model. i'd say odds are against either part of the caribbean wave developing.
99L is coming on out of the not-so-friendly environment away from the in the eastern atlantic, nearing the more supportive caribbean. it's going to slide under the ridging in the eastern caribbean and probably develop. as noted by storm even though convection doesn't look very organized, there is a low pressure underneath. it's convective support should increase and likely we'll have a tropical storm there late tomorrow or tuesday. from there tough to say exactly what happens. the upper low near the bahamas may linger, or another may form further east and let it tail away west. as some of the globals show ridging increasing near the southeast, it'll probably split and trough out, while another digs closer to 60w. whatever 99L is by then should be more or less under ridging, moving nw. it'll likely affect the islands, be weakened by them, and then slow under the ridge near the bahamas. how energetic oncoming shortwaves are then should influence whether one snatches it early or whether it can creep close to florida. the ridge axis is more or less around 25N, so it shouldn't threaten further up the coast with more than a glancing blow, unless it really waits... entirely different story if it were to slip into the gulf. that's pie in the sky right now, we don't even have a classifiable system. this is just one of the paths it could take... the one i'd bet on.
other stuff: waves coming off africa shown going active this week. has had most everything down there on hold most of the summer, but now shows development. may be accurately getting the start of the CV season. one is off today, another around tue/wed.
mess in the subtropics... stuff east of bermuda not holding together, but the old texas low energy is sliding off the carolina coast today. may form a weak low, more than that doubtful. a real development would totally scramble everything i wrote about the evolution of features preceding 99L.
HF 1702z30july
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
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well... must of had a busy morning.... asking AF to be ready!
Plan of the Day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT SUN 30 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z JUL TO 01/1100Z AUG 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-061
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN ATLANTIC)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 31/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 31/1600Z
D. 15.0N 058.5W
E. 31/1700Z TO 01/0100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
FLIGHT
A. 01/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0203A CYCL
C. 01/0430Z
D. 16.0N 061.0W
E. 01/0500Z TO 01/1300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HOURLIES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.
Deleted Pacific req. for Bandwidth
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?
i would think the AF would fly down to the carribean and be based out of there. DanielW, does that sound correct?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Jul 30 2006 01:24 PM)
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teal61
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
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Not Daniel, but yes they fly out of St. Croix.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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emphasis has shifted from the eastern caribbean to the western caribbean. between jamaica and honduras there's a good bit of convergence and weak cyclonic turning at lower levels. shear profile there and on the path of this area is good. that convection holds up, could mix things up quite a bit here.
HF 2158z30july
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3406
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Not Daniel, but yes they fly out of St. Croix.
Thanks Teal...that's more in your area of expertise anyway!
RECON will probably forward deploy to St Croix for a few days. Once...and IF, St Croix looks to be in or near the forecast track of a storm. They pull back to Keesler, or the Tampa area. I believe they have used the Miami area for staging before also.
Interesting. For one of the worst plane rides in your life. They tend to deploy to Resort areas, when away from Keesler. I guess that and seeing the storm are the ONLY Perks with RECON.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3406
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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99L is still maintaining it's convection. Latest Shortwave Image from RAMSDIS appears to indicate a thundertorm complex developing at/ near the rotation center. Near 14N/ 53W.
The SSD.NOAA Floater is slightly off center. At present the Central Atlantic page has a much better area of coverage. It's not a cropped/ zoomed area like the Floater Page.
This is a negative of the RAMSDIS Shortwave Image.
Real image can be accessed here:
Short Lived Image-RAMSDIS
Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 30 2006 08:49 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
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hmm...like daniel sayes... 99L has a good round of convection going now.... SE side coming north and the NW side going south... some shear off to the northwest........
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html
center should be real close...maybe just to the south of this buoy
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Jul 30 2006 09:01 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3406
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
230 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006
VALID 12Z WED AUG 02 2006 - 12Z SUN AUG 06 2006
...ELSEWHERE...THE 00 UTC CARRIES AN H5 LOW ACROSS FL AND INTO THE SERN WHILE THE 00 UTC AND CANADIAN MORE CARRIES A
SYSTEM FROM THE WRN ATL TO THE E COAST ON A MORE NWD TRACK TOWARD THE CAROLINAS LATER THIS WEEK.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW
WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL DOWNPLAY DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. TPC HAS ALSO SUGGESTED POTENTIAL THAT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACH MAY FEED FL CONVECTION LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Yeah, I'm gonna be curious tosee what the morning has to say and what the system looks like on satellite at that time. Recon on deck seems like a reasonable idea to me. Otherwise, plenty of dry air influencing the western side and digging west ahead of the system in tandem. As far as organization, yes...healthy amounts of thunderstorms lacking, but I do believe the structure of the system is better that it was yesterday and this morning. If you were looking, I bet you'd agree. Each one of these deep atlantic waves we've discussed over the last few weeks has been slightly more tenacious than the previous. This one is definately more so than the previous. If anything, it backs up everyone's point that busy times are coming closer and closer...it's now becoming a matter of when, not if one of these is gonna develop.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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latest downplays the chances of development with 99L. personally think they're being too conservative. i'd expect that tuesday we'll be talking about a tropical storm in the eastern caribbean. think chances are better than even that a depression at least will be present for recon tomorrow afternoon.
could be something hybrid trying to take off east of the carolinas in the next couple of days once the northern shear cuts off. mild chance.
not so sure about the stuff in the caribbean right now. further west is probably in a better environment, but the convergence out there from earlier appears to be slacking up.
east atlantic may be primed. probably something of interest out there this week if not a named system.
HF 0238z31july
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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HankFrank...Yeah, I was being passive, but your words about the and organization is what I was elluding to as well...Regarding , rightly so on their behalf though, this hasn't been quick in getting organized. By the way, I noticed the latest run of the did pick up on 99L, it brought it over Hispanola then to the Florida Keys area in 5 days. If this develops, the most important factor will become the following: Does it cross south of the greater antillies, over the DR and eastern Cuba, or does it pass over PR and move north of the Greater Antillies. I would have to say that if it develops, it's ablitlity to intensify would be greatest on the southern track, a bit less on the northern track, and it would have a heckova time dealing with the mountains of DR and eastern Cuba if it moves down the middle.
EDIT: P.S. Looking at Latest NASA Images...and images from before, this is fighting the dry air to some degree, even though the western side is remaining devoid of t-storms.
Edited by dem05 (Sun Jul 30 2006 11:02 PM)
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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
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the wave that will be approaching the islands looks pretty decent on satellite. i was a bit surprised at the wording involved in the 10:30 as well. generally speaking, the tends to do this consistently though. if a system definitely has conditions to develop but hasnt yet, the will use the wording development or strengthening is possible even though everyone else is pretty sure it will develop. i am assuming that since this hasnt developed yet and the fact that dust and shear are still in the equation, they went with development is marginally favorable. i dont want to say they are cautious with their wording, but they certainly dont overhype systems while they are in their beginning stages. looking at the colo state model runs they are still pretty clustered with a track towards the Bahamas and i guess the has shifted slightly southward tonight skirting the southern Cuba coast, but it also looks like it has it slightly stronger than the previous run. i think it will reach at least depression status soon, but i dont know what the road holds for it. from what i am reading it doesnt seem like this will have much of a chance at becoming anything more than maybe a minimal hurricane. does anybody see anything in the coming days that will suggest this may have a better shot at strengthening more than what the anticipation is now?
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