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#93L 2PM Recon Finding a Strong Low, Strong Winds, but Few Clouds Flhurricane.com
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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 399
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: status quo [Re: HanKFranK]
      #69958 - Thu Aug 10 2006 03:56 AM

A few extra thoughts on features. it looks like there's a piece of energy lagging behind the wave itself. The wave looks as though it's racing off to the west, and the other piece of energy (where the mid level feature is) seems to be moving a bit slower to the northwest.

Of course, that mid level feature could wash out in the next 6 hours and be meaningless, (particularly with some northerly shear over it) but it's still something a little unexpected.

There's also a big turning in the central atlantic with some convection to the southwest of it possibly feeding into that cyclonic turning. Nothing likely out of it but the convection does seem to be on the uptick there, however it's still horribly disorganized.

Perhaps oddly enough, if the wave did fracture, the chances of something developing may improve. The wave racing to the west may finally slow down, and get a chance to build, and the mid level low continues to fire convection, giving it a chance to organize.

Of course all of these are small chances. but... (happily) there's not much that has large chances right now.

-Mark

--------------------
TD/TS/HU/MH
16/15/09/04 <- My prediction (2013 Predictions)
00/00/00/00 <- Year Totals

http://blog.bloodstar.org


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GeneF
Unregistered




Re: status quo [Re: Bloodstar]
      #69959 - Thu Aug 10 2006 08:35 AM

Post deleted - question was previously answered just a few posts back.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Aug 10 2006 09:14 AM)


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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 71
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
Re: 91L taking the hard road [Re: Bloodstar]
      #69960 - Thu Aug 10 2006 09:53 AM

After noon yesterday 91L made an attempt to organize itself after a wsw move below some of the shear. The recon didn't find a closed low at the surface, but 91L looked pretty good.

However overnight the continued rapid movement and a jaunt to the NW put 91L back in jeopardy. I think its too far North now to have much of a chance to do anything even if it slows down.

BTW, here in Baton Rouge we had a dose of the tropics yesterday evening. The ULL moving west through the gulf caused severe storms in our city. The storms moved East to West along the upflow created by the Northern edges of the ULL. Numerous lightning strikes, hail and winds were reported over a widespread area with torrential rains. In some ways for BR it was worse than Katrina's effects here. Not near as long however. It lasted for just over an hour.


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bhnole
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 11
Loc: Maitland, FL
Re: 91L taking the hard road [Re: stormtiger]
      #69961 - Thu Aug 10 2006 11:07 AM

I agree, looks 91L ventured too far north to have any chance. Looks like it is bound to cross Hispaniola now, whatever is left will probably be disapated due to dry air and shear. The few waves behind it look unimpressive and headed for the same fate. This keeps up and we may make it to September.

Edited by bhnole (Thu Aug 10 2006 11:07 AM)


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: 91L taking the hard road [Re: bhnole]
      #69962 - Thu Aug 10 2006 11:25 AM

11:30 TWO...it's a no-go again:

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS DISORGANIZED... AND THE AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NO LONGER FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
nodebby [Re: bhnole]
      #69963 - Thu Aug 10 2006 11:27 AM

our 12th invest is definitely an open wave this morning. fast trades below can be worse than shear above sometimes.
models aren't depicting much in the way of activity... not like a week ago when pretty much every one had the 91L wave coming off and becoming a hurricane almost outright. system had me fooled about three days ago, but eventually i figured it out, too.
might be an uncharacteristically relaxing month, or at least couple of weeks.
by about ten to fifteen days from now the basin is almost always switched on. there isn't a '97-esque el nino to contend with, so one way or another it's coming. for now, enjoy the quiet.
HF 1527z10august


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: nodebby [Re: HanKFranK]
      #69964 - Thu Aug 10 2006 12:34 PM

Yeah, it looks quiet but we all know things CAN change fast. Sure would be nice to go through a weak season after what we've all been through the last couple years.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1075
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: nodebby [Re: HanKFranK]
      #69965 - Thu Aug 10 2006 01:22 PM

As a long-shot, if nothing else, but also because I am more impressed with it today than I am of whatever is left of 91L at the moment - not to mention that I live in Texas, I'm watching this

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rgb-l.jpg


Persistent ULL with some hybridizing qualities


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cuidado
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 11
Loc: Sarasota, FL
Re: nodebby [Re: HanKFranK]
      #69966 - Thu Aug 10 2006 01:37 PM

...QUIET is right! My under-insured property and I definitely enjoy it!
What is the anniversary of Andrew (the "A" storm for 19??)
Mid-September??

August 24th, 1992. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Aug 10 2006 02:40 PM)


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: nodebby [Re: cieldumort]
      #69967 - Thu Aug 10 2006 01:41 PM

That is supposed to bring some thunderstorms to our area today. We will see what develops with that as for as rainy weather.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1075
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: nodebby [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #69968 - Thu Aug 10 2006 02:03 PM

It has clearly been trying to develop a lower-level feature, and once again today, deeper convection is firing directly under the center of the ULL. My best guess is that a mid-level low has indeed taken hold today, and is attempting to push further to the surface at this hour.

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Texas Cane Tracker
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 21
Loc: Tomball, TX
Re: nodebby [Re: cieldumort]
      #69969 - Thu Aug 10 2006 03:30 PM

Nice ULL, but I don't think it could convert to a warm core before running into Mexico. Could bring some beneficial rain however.

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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 119
Re: nodebby [Re: Texas Cane Tracker]
      #69971 - Thu Aug 10 2006 04:52 PM

That's the evil little SOB that tried to sink a few boats in a tournament over the weekend here - there were reports of 70mph+ winds and numerous waterspouts offshore - and was responsible for a severe pounding that we've taken in the way of ordinary rough weather over the last few days.

The high to the north of it is what's kept it from being able to spin up - and I suspect it will run out of room before it can do anything, even though those two features are moving apart from one another..... If it had another 100-200nm of sea room it would be bad news - but the ridging should persist long enough to drive this into Mexico before it can get its feet down underneath it.....

--------------------
Do you dive? http://www.scubaforum.org
Invest? Come talk on the Tickerforum


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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
Re: nodebby [Re: Texas Cane Tracker]
      #69972 - Thu Aug 10 2006 04:59 PM

I`m just not seeing much of anything with this system--

An upper low, converting to a tropical system... is a complicated, SLOW, gradual process.

What we are looking at is a simple enhancement of thunderstorm activity...... nothing tropical.


WW-911

Edited by weather_wise911 (Thu Aug 10 2006 05:00 PM)


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Randrew
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 109
Loc: Stuart, Florida
Is this the right page? [Re: weather_wise911]
      #69982 - Thu Aug 10 2006 10:16 PM

The Chris killing ULL in the Gulf is trying to make a move to the surface tonight. Haven't been here today but here's a quote from the 8pm TWD.


...THE
UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE BUILDING TO THE SFC WITH A FEW
BUOYS/SHIPS SHOWING SOME CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT IN THE AREA. THIS
SFC REFLECTION IS ANALYZED AS A TROF WITH THE AXIS ALONG 94W
FROM 24N-27N.

Probably nothing. What I do know is these black holes as I fondly call them are notoriously slow to move but most especially transitioning from the mid to surface levels. Here's the Gulf WV loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3456
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
GOM ULL [Re: Randrew]
      #69984 - Thu Aug 10 2006 10:51 PM

The last sentence of the GOM paragraph, in the evening TWD, pretty much sums up the GOM ULL forecast.

..."THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE FAR W GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW....WHICH SHOULD BE INLAND OVER TEXAS/MEXICO AT THIS TIME TOMORROW."
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/102356.shtml?

Along that line. Jim Cantore, TWC, had a 7 day WV loop of the SW N ATL, GOM and Caribbean, that he used to demonstrate the Lack of Tropical Activity over the last week.
The ULL in combination with the TUTT has basically induced a South to Southwesterly shear into the area
South of the ULL track...(The Area south of 25N) has too much shear to allow for development.
That's my take on his demonstration.

He also said the next Low to move into the SW N ATL wouldn't be as far South as the one earlier this week. He noted the Tropical Wave just east of the Lesser Antilles was at a slightly lower latitude than the others have been. Possibly an indicator that it could develop more than 91L.


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cuidado
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 11
Loc: Sarasota, FL
Re: Is this the right page? [Re: Randrew]
      #69988 - Fri Aug 11 2006 12:31 PM

Quote:

...these black holes as I fondly call them...



I like that - Black Holes - describes them (visually) really well. And they're certainly more "fun" to watch (than something like 91L) just in case they do something surprising so close to home. But I am remided by your "Chris killing" remark just how surprising that really would be. I am also reminded that in the old days, before we had access to all the exotic (to me) info available now (TUTT, MJO, etc.), there wasn't any point in getting serious about anything that didn't show any outflow aloft. As in, if you can actually see the circulation from a satellite (like the ULL) you're looking at a likely non-event. Makes Scott's thought about something coming off the east coast more tantalizing.

You all (HF, Genesis, TCT , Daniel, Scott, et. al.) are certainly more interesting than the guys at, say, Raging Bull. Thanks.


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Nothing Immediate [Re: MikeC]
      #69989 - Fri Aug 11 2006 04:17 PM

It is weird how quiet things are. I have been reading about all of the typhoons that are causing so much damage in China.
They seem to be having a year like we had last year.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1075
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Nothing Immediate [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #69991 - Fri Aug 11 2006 04:56 PM

Get a load of this

91L just refuses to die

Someone really needs to stick a fork in him, and simply put him out of our misery already


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Nothing Immediate [Re: cieldumort]
      #69992 - Fri Aug 11 2006 05:47 PM

Eh, it's not really a threat right now even. There's a bit of convection there, helping to form occasional mid-level vortices, but there's not much of a surface reflection anymore as winds are strong out of the east-southeast across the axis of that convection. Certainly, there is no closed low-level circulation, and it's moving too fast for anything to threaten out of that one. Not now, at least.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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