Storm Cooper
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6:30PM Tuesday, August 22 Update
Tropical Depression 4 has held its status as a depression today, but still has a good chance to form into this year's fourth Tropical storm. If it does so it will be named Debby. This will not affect US landfall, and will be a fish spinner, but it is something to watch.
East of the Caribbean another wave is worth watching (97L), this has the chance to form into a depression over the next few days. Those in the eastern Caribbean islands will want to watch this.
Chance for 97L to develop in the next 24-48 hours
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-------*------------]
More to come...
5PM Monday, August 21 Update
Tropical Depression 4 has formed out of the previously termed Invest 96L to the southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the Cape Verde Islands in anticipation of an impact sometime tomorrow from this system. Current forecasts show modest strengthening and a track toward the northwest -- and out to sea -- after passing by the Cape Verdes, but we'll monitor it closely nonetheless. Elsewhere, nothing in the basin is threatening at this time.
Original Post
A surprise to me at least but 96L is on the map. It is a long way out so no worries about it just yet... but this may be the "ice breaker" this season has been looking for.
There's more discussion on 96L found around here, with brief updates from Tony Cristaldi and HF in the comments section of this thread and a blog from Clark found below. To pull out the ol' "Chances of Development in the next 24-48hr" meter...
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------------*-------]
Tropical Storm Debby
TD#4
Animated Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
More model runs on TD#4 from Jonathan Vigh's page
SFWMD Model Plot
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system
East of Caribbean Wave (97L)
Animated Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system
Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed Aug 23 2006 05:34 AM)
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Rabbit
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well, here we have it--92L part 2
NHC has jumped the gun here issuing an invest on yet another E Atlantic low, and just like the last several, all of the convection will collapse within 18 hours
the one west of it has a higher chance of developing, which is still almost none
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HanKFranK
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rabbit, pretty sure the navy is calling it 96L. is just mentioning it.
saw something in a news ticker earlier on fox of all places, quoting mayfield as saying they expect things to liven up soon. wxwise911 posted something about coming on late in the last thread... i've been watching the activity advance across the pacific, too. add in the fact that it's the start of the fourth week of august. be really weird if nothing happens this week, man.
yeah, it's about time. the new invest looks kinda good. back in '05 we didn't have any systems develop that far east in the tropical atlantic, so that could be the furthest east we've had a longtrack system develop since september 2004.
oh yeah, just to get it over and done with, no 'debby does dallas' jokes this time around. we heard it all back in august 2000. think of something original, a'ite?
HF 0343z21august
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BillD
Weather Analyst
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Quote:
saw something in a news ticker earlier on fox of all places, quoting mayfield as saying they expect things to liven up soon.
Just saw this on yahoo Atlantic hurricanes could rev up any time
In addition to saying he thought things would be heating up, apparently the is not sure why it has been so quiet thus far...
Mayfield expressed puzzlement as to why the season hasn't been a little more active.
"We're actually not sure why some of these are not developing," he said.
Bill
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HurryCaneForm
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If my memory is correct, 94L came off the West Coast of Africa(popping up some wicked convection) and died off the day later.
The Saharan Dry Air has been a big factor of killing those waves and it will be interesting to see if 96L holds firm and develops.
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cieldumort
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96L looks pretty impressive at this hour! Have to admit - I didn't see this coming .. at least, not *right* off the tip of the continent(!)
ps: Debby can't do Dallas, it's too far inland, really. Perhaps if she comes to Texas, she can do my dishes, tho. I'll leave 'em out. Save time and money! 
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johnnyg
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I'm looking at the long-range models and the 350hr model map, has this feature off the coast of Africa as a pretty potent hurricane off the East coast where I am in New England. They have this feature as a 988 low pressure system off the coast of NC/SC coast line on Sept 4th!! Only the model has this feature in the long term.. Just have to wait and see, but the has been pretty consistent for the past 2-3 days... As you can see with some of the computer model runs moving this system WNW, right now maybe we should see if any other computer models will jump on board with the .. I'll keep in touch
Johnny in Maine
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Ed in Va
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How do I see the long-range? The link that I'm looking at only goes to 144 hrs.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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NewWatcher
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HERE YA GO
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_carib.shtml
I click on "course" because it shows the whole atlantic
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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hornedcow
Unregistered
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NRL is reporting 35kts and 1000mb ... looks impressive on visible already 
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nc_tropical_wx79
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Is the refering to 96L or something else? Never mind I see what it is refering to. My question is if it has 25kt. winds (96L) why is it not a TD yet?
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W.D. Duncan
Edited by nc_tropical_wx79 (Mon Aug 21 2006 09:39 AM)
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Tony Cristaldi
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Quote:
well, here we have it--92L part 2
NHC has jumped the gun here issuing an invest on yet another E Atlantic low, and just like the last several, all of the convection will collapse within 18 hours
the one west of it has a higher chance of developing, which is still almost none
I couldn't disagree with you more. 96L has a much more pronounced vorticity signature, more and better-defined convective banding, and is less embedded in the SAL. If you had acess to 15-minute METSAT imagery, you would see this system pretty much emerged as a classic closed African monsoon depression. All it needs to do is maintain convection for the better part of another day and it will be declared a TD.
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JoeFL
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Very well formed area of disturbed weather moving away from the west coast of Africa, probably the best looking area we have seen this season. Nice banding features with associated low pressure. I would also expect at least depression or storm within the next 24 hours or so if it maintains convection.
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FloydRTurbo
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Links on the Saharan Air Layer
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8split.html
If you go back 24hrs you can see that 96L is behind the bulge of dry air that follows the previous wave, which also looked somewhat formidable right as it came off the coast.
Also I find the Meteostat-8 IR enhanced loop interesting...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/movies/metirnhc/metirnhcjava.html
...in that you can see the wave prior to 96L, then 96L, a dead space (or IR at least), and the next two systems, all evenly spaced.
With regards to this compared to Ed's blog on the main page, I suspect the African wave train is picking up speed - I think this season will make the 4th storm by the 25th and the 5th before 9/10
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hornedcow
Unregistered
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Must have been a typo or I need glasses - 96L is still @ 25kts and 1008mb ... although it still looks ominous 
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Black Pearl
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There appears to be a burst of convection near Jamaica this morning. Are conditions improving for development in the Caribbean? 
Caribbean Burst
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RedingtonBeachGuy
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I noticed a few days ago some of the models suggested a flair up down there running into the Gulf of Mexico. Today the models don't see anything but little rain events. So go figure. Maybe the Mets onboard here have a better take and can fill us in.
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stormchasersince1976
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Several models last week suggested something moving from the SW Caribbean into the GOM this week, at the time their was nothing there. It looks good but nobody is discussing it, have to see if it persists.
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HanKFranK
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taking it from east to west today:
96L looks mighty good. tony c. already covered the particulars and i don't see much else beyond that. a large number of the globals are showing early development and taking the system generally northwest. SSTs past the CV islands cool off below threshold for a stretch, so if it goes up early it will knock itself back down. those that develop it maintain it through there, though... has it meander nw for days and recurve well east of bermuda (east of 50w even). hard to believe it won't get a little further west than that... but who knows? more stock in the globals when it gets a bump up. FYI folks who look at the estimated intensity... that's just an estimate that isn't necessarily right. it's usually based on satellite appearances and those can be quite wrong, especially under shear conditions, or with some that have more convection than real organization.
closer to 40w is another bulge on the , with elongated turning. there are enough globals that see this region and keep it a discrete feature further west that it's of some interest. i guess it's a wave, but a low-medium amplitude one that's very much involved. days away from doing anything if at all.
the western caribbean feature is also of modest interest. it looks like most of the energy is going northwest towards the bay of campeche/yucatan, but one good burst of convection is located west of jamaica and track more northward. it doesn't seem to have any surface reflection, but is somewhat persistent. disturbed weather should be strung across the southern half of the gulf going into midweek, as an item of interest but at this point doesn't look like anything significant will come of it.
looks like the rest of the month should stay fairly active at this point.
HF 1710z21august
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Clark
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Hmmm, wish I had read more of the threads today before churning out 800 words on 96L, but nevertheless I've posted a new blog about it and its chances. You can access it on the main page or through the Forum, your call. My thinking falls in line with Tony and HF, just adding a bit more as to why it may (or may not) take that NW turn all of the models suggest. I'll add more later if events warrant.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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cieldumort
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I think we will be looking at a here shortly. Perhaps just a little more umph about the center, and DTs should be coming in at 2, or better. Last set put up for public consumption from SSD were 1.5 CI, 1.5 T, and it's only continued to improve it's structure - especially alignment of the deeper convection about the center - since then.
Would it not be wild to see Debby by morning.
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Rabbit
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NRL now has 04L.NONAME, so at 5pm we now have TD4
i still have doubts that it will hold together past 40W though, as every wave that has come off has been convection-free around the center by that point
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cieldumort
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That was quick! I didn't even have to post
I'm seriously entertaining Debby by Tuesday morning -
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Thunderbird12
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96L is now classified as 04L.NONAME on the site and it is listed as TD 4 on the latest SHIPS model output message, so it appears this system will be officially classified this afternoon.
SHIPS brings it up to near hurricane status in 72 hours, before slightly dropping the intensity after that point.
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ElizabethH
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Wow.. Noname looks impressive so far. I only looked at the latest frame (work computer doesn't have java), but looks good on imagery. We'll see if we have Debby by tomorrow, but looks like we will if it continues to look this good. A weakening is possible as it heads west however. And I think it was HankFrank that said something about the models. And I agree.. I am not really going to put stock into them for a few more runs..but will keep an eye on them.
Edited by ElizabethH (Mon Aug 21 2006 03:50 PM)
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Black Pearl
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96L is now 4L Noname on
NRL
Read some posts above yours, that already has been noted.
Sorry. I quess I didn't refresh. I was wondering why no one had not posted it before I did.
Edited by Black Pearl (Mon Aug 21 2006 04:29 PM)
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Storm Cooper
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NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
500 PM AST MON AUG 21 2006
..TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
It is official...
I almost beat you SH7
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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Storm Hunter
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
2100 UTC MON AUG 21 2006
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 21.5W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
THANKS TO NASA NAMMA project... they are doing a research project in Cape Verde Islands... if you have google earth you can watch them live....here's the kml file to the project... NOTE... need password for the MET8 images... http://branch.nsstc.nasa.gov/NAMMA/namma.kml <load that into you google earth
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 21 2006 04:43 PM)
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hornedcow
Unregistered
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OT: Happy Birthday Storm Cooper 
Thanks a bunch! Now on to TD 4 / Debby?...
Edited by Storm Cooper (Mon Aug 21 2006 05:04 PM)
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madmumbler
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Quote:
I think we will be looking at a here shortly. Perhaps just a little more umph about the center, and DTs should be coming in at 2, or better. Last set put up for public consumption from SSD were 1.5 CI, 1.5 T, and it's only continued to improve it's structure - especially alignment of the deeper convection about the center - since then.
Would it not be wild to see Debby by morning.
I don't care what it does if it stays a fish storm.
To my untrained eye, looking at the GOES full Atlantic water vapor loop, I can see why they are saying it's going to curve and stay in open water. I hope that trend holds out. I just hope it follows that path and doesn't drop further south and shoot more to the west. Are there any trends showing anything that might make it do that in the short term?
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Lesli in SWFL.
(my 2009 guess - 14/7/5)
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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ftlaudbob
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I do not think the local tv mets should even show the 5 day projected path on TD'S.They don't mean much until they are least a TS.People that watched the local weather here tonight may think it is going to go out to sea and never be a problem for any part of the U.S.They love that "cone of death".It may very well stay out to sea,But that is far from certain at this point.
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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danielw
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Actually, some of the models were forecasting the NW track at 00Z last night.
Before the Depression was declared, and before it had a significant atmospheric signature.
The 3-5 day Marine Forecast also takes the System to the Middle of the Atlantic.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 20.0N 35.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 23.5N 41.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 26.5N 46.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
(That's a forecast total of +14.0deg N/ +25.0degrees W... Or WNW.~danielw )
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 21 2006 07:36 PM)
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Storm Hunter
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take a look at the 8pm adv... important little fact
AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR HAD
REFORMED FURTHER SOUTH NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.6
WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...335 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Hugh
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I don't know how significant the reforming to the south will be in the long term. The models are still forecasting an almost due NW track for the forseeable future.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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HurryCaneForm
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Looks like TD#4 is encounting the Saharan Dry Air & that's not a surprise. Convection on the NE and N of the storm is starting to fall apart for now at least...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
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Tropics Guy
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Latest Meteosat image showing that TD # 4 may be gulping some dry air as the northern half of the system's thunderstorms are waning. Will be interesting to see if this system will survive while the other recent healthy looking waves in the general area went "poof" because of the cool water & dry air environment.
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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Hugh
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Interesting tidbit of information.... I just checked out the "history" on WU. All but one TD on record that has formed within 400 miles of the current location of TD Four in the month of August has moved well east of Bermuda. The lone exception is Becky in 1958, which went up the east coast, well offshore.
Hard to believe that NONE of them reached the islands!
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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cieldumort
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Dr. Lyons suggested tonight that for Four to really have a shot of a mainland landfall it will also have to stay so weak (in order to have the lower-level winds dominate it's steering over the next few days) as to also run a very high chance of kicking it - which, is probably *partly* why we have no records of named August storms coming into the U.S. from within 400 miles of Four's location at the time of his post.
However, there is another school of thought Dr. Masters did not mention.. very much worth considering: TCs that far out have often gone unrecognized until they were very close to the Lesser Antilles - when ships, buoys, island nations, and perhaps most importantly, recon getting in there, made it all too obvious that the "wave" was actually/already a TC ... or, in advanced systems, that the "depression" was already a storm.
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sara33
Weather Guru
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Is there actually a site where we can find the bouy data from that area? I checked the one at NOAA and the closest one is far south of where TD # 4 is?? Just curious:-)
Thanks,
Christine
http://www.oceanweather.com/data/
...Try this...
Edited by Storm Cooper (Mon Aug 21 2006 10:21 PM)
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Hugh
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Very good point, cieldumort ... although, there are a number of storms on the history page that did curve out to sea, and yet were tracked origin-wise to the Cape Verde area. I wonder how they have even semi-accurate tracks out in that area that pre-date satellites, though, but that's a different issue. Also, the history only considers systems that were a TD in August within 400 miles of the location. If the system was a storm, or a wave that was classfied 400+ miles further west, it isn't shown. I've only seen about three T.D.'s form that far out since I've been tracking these beasts (still hard to believe that even with all of the record activity in 2005, we had ZERO Cape Verde storms!).
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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West FL Jess
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Hurricane Emily was a Cape Verde storm in 2005 according to wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Emily_%282005%29
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~jess~
Edited by West FL Jess (Mon Aug 21 2006 10:39 PM)
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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I really like what the 11 pm discussion says "the models have been excellently wrong thus far". Good discussion for those of you who
get the chance to read it.
I don't hold much with looking at what storms from a certain area have done before as an
indication of what a storm will do or not do.
It is interesting to look at storms from the past and yes, there are some patterns, but each storm and the
conditions it is born in are different. I think they will have a better handle on what TD 4 will do in a few days. More
than likely it will be one for the fish but it is just too early to tell for sure. Nice to have something to track though.
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cieldumort
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Yeah,. just look at the years on his (score sheet there). It's fairly plain by the dates of those systems which were tracked that by far most have gone unnoticed - until, as I suggest, they were caught up with around the time they were much closer to or even in the Caribbean, or nearing Bermuda, etc.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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The 11p is pretty much in line with what I mentioned earlier -- it all depends on how the steering flow (and by extension, water vapor imagery patterns) over the next day or so. Does that weakness with that upper-low continue to develop, or does the ridge build in? It's not the strongest ridge ever, but it is a sizeable one and as (if) TD 4 develops, the diabatic effects of the warming aloft from its outflow should help amplify the ridge slightly. In other words, stay tuned.
BTW, while Wikipedia is a very good reference sometimes, don't always take it as truth. While they have made efforts to improve the quality as well as screen the entries as they are input, it's still a user-driven community without many guidelines. Official sources are always better. (Just a short little note.)
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Good point, Clark... and even the Wikipedia site shows the track of Emily beginning WELL west of the Cape Verde Islands. Yes, the way came off the coast, but so do alot of waves that don't form until they get near or into the Caribbean.
The Big Question remains to be seen over the course of the next four days - will the ridge build, or collapse? Regardless of where what is now TD Four goes, it appears that it will strengthen (based upon all forecasts I've seen) into the year's first hurricane.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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danielw
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Here are links to the 2005 Tropical System tracks. I'm counting at least 5 possible Cape Verde systems, including Emily.
Small Map
Large Map
"Cape Verde-type hurricanes are those Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that develop into tropical storms fairly close (<1000 km [600 mi] or so) of the Cape Verde Islands and then become hurricanes before reaching the Caribbean. (That would be my definition, there may be others.) Typically, this may occur in August and September, but in rare years (like 1995) there may be some in late July and/or early October. The numbers range from none up to around five per year - with an average of around 2."
From Chris Landsea's Frequently Asked Questions at AOML-Hurricane Research Division.
Cape Verde Hurricane Definition
Using Dr Landsea's definition...None of the 2005 Storms were Cape Verde Hurricanes. As none of them attained Hurricane status prior to passing through the Lesser Antilles. ~danielw
Correction. Per the Advisory Archive on Hurricane Emily.
Emily was classified a Hurricane prior to passing the Windward Island chain.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al052005.public.013.shtml?
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 21 2006 11:21 PM)
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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TD4, based on latest satellite imagery, is already falling apart much like the last several waves that have come off the coast
"TD4"
the convection is so poorly organized around the center (what little dissipating convection that there is) that this, to me, does not fit the criteria to even be classified a depression, unlike some of the last few waves that DID fit
What will happen, as is already happening, is that the convection will continue to dissipate, leaving nothing but a low cloud swirl with large areas of convection on to south, and the last advisory will likely be written later today or Wednesday
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HanKFranK
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eh, i don't think it'll quit. the models that initialize it as a real system hold onto it, and there isn't a shear problem to worry it. also keeping further south, out of the strongest subsidence. SSTs out there have also warmed significantly this month, and the state is such that convection is somewhat enhanced. my bet is slow organization and a more westward track than the official, which isn't too farfetched... but i think it will track north of the islands one way or another.
the wave passing 40w is still too associated, and trades nearby are fairly strong. the signature is held onto by most of the globals, though... it will likely remain fairly active for the next few days. not a whole lot riding on it developing, though... just the canadian likes it, and just a little.
lot of disturbed weather working up into the gulf this week. with the heavier activity in the eastern pacific, the timely atlantic response with TD 4 so far, not unreasonable to expect more to try to develop. the gulf will look pretty good late week, synoptically speaking. there isn't much to start with, but expect the disturbed weather to at least persist.
HF 0430z22august
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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HF, you mentioned the gulf, and i have seen several of the models having a low in NW Caribbean at 120 hrs and in GOM at 144 hours
would all of this by any chance be the same system that is in front of TD4?
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dem05
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Well, Clark definately did an excellent job with his blog earlier today. Having had a chance to meet and get to know Mr. Stewart I can tell you he is one of the best hurricane forcasters in the world...and we maybe be seeing Clark in a similar class.
Finally, for the trackers out there...there is something to track! Fortunately, I'd give it a 1% at best chance of ever being a north american threat at all. So I definately agree with you HF, even on a southern course...this will miss the leewards and likely find a way out to sea.
While tracking this feature, I maintain my theory from several days ago that the disturbed area in the Carribean is worth a good hard look. I just can't back away from my theory on development in the area and I may eat crow, but I respectfully disagree with HF and believe this may happen sooner than late week. At the very least, 04 is far enough out to sea and poses such a small threat that it doesn't hurt to keep an eye on this feature in the west. carrib. For one thing, we do have a fair amount of cenvective persistance that has lasted down there since the weekend. On one hand, these thunderstorms have failed to attain better organization due to the fast trade winds. On a cautionary note, the activity has moved NW into an area closer to the Yucatan, where the trades notoriously have an opportunity to slow down and pile up. This is an area where things can get together and the following dynamics could give it an even better shot: There is an upper low west of 95 degrees in the Bay of Camp./Mex and the the ridge in the northern gulf is bucking westward thanks to a westward retrograding upper low around Tallahassee. The combination should open up the NW Carribean and Eastern gulf into a generally favorable pattern.
As far as models go, they are still just not seeing the atlantic basin well. I made reference to this a few days ago as well as in previous forums.Not only are these models failing to see the overall picture, they are rather inconsistent from run to run. Right now, you can even find the carribean feature where it actually is located on most models...and in one graphic example of model whoops...the 12Z Canadian saw nothing from the wave entering the carrib, yet developed something off Naples and took it into the W. Florida Panhandle. at 00Z (The latest run) a tropical cyclone can be seen going frome the Yucatan into the western gulf. It also saw the wave entering the Carrib. moving through the Yucatan Channel at the end of the period as a tropical cyclone. I could break out each model...but it's easier to say each one has it'sown twists and turns right now...and none of them seem to have an acurate picture for now.
It's best to keepan eye on the NW Carribean....
Edited by dem05 (Tue Aug 22 2006 01:45 AM)
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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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I was just looking at the same thing rabbit. Typically I don't put a lot of stock in the model (realize, of course, I am not a Met) but I did see somewhat of a correlation between the at:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation
and the model here:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2...;hour=Animation
on the later system.
Even the WRF model is hinting at something. and see nothing.
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Sticking to the Carib myself, before the GOM -- for now --
I see too much activity crossing the GOM to allow something to form attm, but perhaps allow something through that has already formed, sure, maybe.
In the Carib, this is an entirely different story. It appears that the has pushed further north, and the SER has followed suit. Upper-level winds are slowly turning more favorable in that entire area, and there have already been several attempts to establish surface trofs. With numerous waves pushing through over the course of the next several days, along with favorable convective potential in general, I would not be the least bit surprised to see a TD work up within as soon as 48 hours here.
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danielw
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Catching up on the latest Discussion. is using those four letter words again. "West-runner" being the four letter word.
Here's an excerpt.
..."AS A RESULT...I AM NOT TOO ENTHRALLED WITH THE MODEL SOLUTIONS... AND WE MAY SEE THE CYCLONE TURN OUT TO BE MORE OF A WEST-RUNNER THAN A RECURVER THROUGH THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS WATER VAPOR-DERIVED WINDS AND UPPER-AIR DATA FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS STRONGER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING... AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALSO APPEARS TO BE BUILDING WESTWARD.
THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE CLIPER MODEL AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SKILL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS..."
TD4 Discussion # 2
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cieldumort
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"skill of the global models"?
*snicker*
Let's see them get the direction close to accurate with 4L before we start talking about their "skill," eh?
I just posted an opinion in WU - apparently not all that dissimilar to the latest discussion.
In general, I'm leaning towards W/WNW - gradual strengthening - at times uneven (perhaps some steps back here or there?) - and should it actually pull through the increase shear and SAL ahead without opening up, there may be a much larger window for more rapid intensification west of 70W (again, if it makes it that far). - would appear that between the juicy warm SSTs and increasingly less hostile/even more hospitable upper-level winds here (s of 25N and w of 70W) - that a solid TS in that environment could pull it off.. if if if
A whole lotta "ifs" with these iffy systems, ya know?
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Looks like we've got Debby by the 5AM - current trends persisting -
SSD coming in 2.0/2.0, 35MPH, at 0600 UTC
and that's looking a little conservative at this hour to at least this observer
ADT 2.6CI/2.9AT, 42MPH at 0645 UTC
Nice convective ball NW quad, all-around generally a better convective presentation. Good overnight nocturnal ramp-up, I think.
Also, re-centering itself closer to 13N 25W, perhaps?
MSG-1 IR at 0630Z
Well, no dice!
Current trends "persisted," but not enough for to Debby-ize, I guess. Would love to see a Quikscat right about now, tho.
Edited by cieldumort (Tue Aug 22 2006 05:02 AM)
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danielw
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35 mph winds do not a "Debby" make. Discussion says maybe later today.
Comparing the 00Z run with the 10Z Advisory position.
00Z initial position..12.4N/ 22.7W
06Z fcst position....12.8N/ 23.6W
12Z fcst position....13.6N/ 24.7W
10Z position..... 12.8N/ 24.6W
That leaves us with a 0.4N and 1.9W track over 10hours. Not exactly NW by any means. However the / TPC repositioning of the center coordinates will add to the "westward" movement.
We had better keep an eye on this one.
Comparing the 06Z Model run to Yesterday's 06Z Model run.
BAMD (outlier) is currently showing a recurve at 28N/ 43W.
Range of the other Models is from 30N/ 47W (BAMM)...to the Official Track (OFCI) at 27N/ 53W.
With the CLP5 lagging behind the other models at 23N/ 46W.
These are the current runs of the 06Z Hurricane Model suite at
Jonathan Vigh's Hurricane Guidance website
So TD4 is at the 12Z forecast longitude at 10Z.
As always... Please follow Official Forecasts and Bulletins for Tropical Cyclone information.
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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NHC says if trends continue TD4 could become a tropical storm later this morning. So, we could have Debbie today.
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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I noticed that the most recent numbers had been bumped up to a 2.5/2.5. Looks like we may be seeing Debby at the 11am update.
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Check the Surf
Edited by AgentB (Tue Aug 22 2006 09:57 AM)
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
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it's still a TD! on 11a, discussion NWS said center is displaced so what does this mean? Is it on it's way to weakening? And lastly with it staying weak does this mean it has a better chance at going more west now or does the path not effected by that? Sorry for all the questions.
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W.D. Duncan
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cieldumort
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Some conservative calls, perhaps. There was about enough stuff to justify an upgrade as early as 5AM, even more so at 11, but the TC still appears a little bit shaky, especially as they go out there. With 's seeming reluctance to upgrade "waves" to TDs that would have only a slight chance of becoming storms, one can easily deduce that they will also tend to be hesitant to upgrade depressions that now appear to have little chance of ever becoming a hurricane - (following the logic of that point of view.)
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SebastianLou
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Florida
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my understanding is that a system that initially stays weaker will move further west, not sure as to why, maybe a more experienced member can tell us if this is correct, and why? I would add the question, What is the chances, if any, that S.E. Central Florida would ever have to worry about this potential storm?
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cieldumort
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A more organized and vertically-stacked system will feel the push of winds in the mid to upper levels much more than a shallow and relatively disorganized system - thus, in theory, the weaker systems out there will tend to be steered by the prevailing lower level winds, and head further west than northwest, while the stronger ones will round the mid to upper level High, and/or enter a weakness in such a High, and head northwest to north.
Hope that helps.
As for S.E. Florida? Never say never, you know. But at this early point, that's like asking if it is going to rain over 2" in downtown Miami on Sunday, September 2cd, or not. Any forecaster wishing to make that sort of call would do his viewers more service by getting off TV and opening up a palm reading parlor, IMHO
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Steve H1
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Well, I'm going to tag onto this thread. 12Z shows a low south 'o Cuba @ 138. Interesting trend. It also shows a weakened 04L at the same time, which I don't totally buy yet.....at least the position its showing. Things are begnning to heat up. Cheers!!http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_138m.gif
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Old Sailor
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Well, we now have 97L east of the Islands, this one could be more of a problem if it gets it's act together. heading west.
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Psyber
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Interesting article about some comments Max Mayfield said on cnn:
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/08/22/hurricanes.reut/index.html
Scary. Lets hope he doesn't mean SOON.
As for TD#4, I can't see it moving much more west. It really looks like a fish spinner. Weird season.
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Leave it to Accuweather to take the accuracy out of weather.
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HanKFranK
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what mayfield means is that such things have happened before, and things like them will eventually happen again. we're in one of those multidecadal active periods according to a sizable portion of the scientific community that specializes in such things. the probabilities of them happening are higher for the near future, while still statistically low.
td 4 is tropical storm debby, by my take. franklin did the last disco.. if one of the others at had done it, we'd have debby. when you've got scatt giving you 30kt uncontaminated winds and none very close to the center... it's not unreasonable that stronger winds are mixing down in the central convection. the sat. classifications are sitting on the fence. SFC obs out of the area support the scatt winds. it adds up, to me.
future track of this thing is probably stair-stepping wnw to nw as upper air features tug at it to different degrees, and the relative strength and position of nearby ridging changes. end result should be that in about a week it'll be recurving near 60w. probably be a hurricane at that point. probably closer to the official or just a little weaker out to days 3-4, maybe a little stronger after that. not terribly unusual considering how far east it developed; a decent analog to this one would maybe be felix, 1989. maybe something more like , 1993, or innumerable other failed systems in the 1980s out there, if it shears up.
new 97L is probably not going to change much over the next 2 days, but the potential for it to slowly organize in the caribbean is there if it can hold together until late in the week. right now it's fighting both trades, a narrow e-w oriented ridge, some dry air intrusion... and involvement. it would really benefit from the system to the east remaining well organized and choking up the trades.. as well as amplifying the upper features nearby. if something can remain coherent into the caribbean, then maybe speculation on what it will do/who it might threaten would be more worthwhile. canadian and are seeing some potential out of it, and to a very small degree follow it.
the stuff working into the gulf... if i had to place emphasis, would shift it to a yucatan-to-western gulf track. the mid-layer vorticity from the west caribbean feature is drifting to the yucatan.. if it fires off another convective burst tonight it might get a surface turning started. historically a good number of western gulf features get started that way. there is sw shear in the region that really reduces the chances anything will have time to organize. with ileana in the pacific it might modify that shear pattern either for better or for worse. mixed messages from globals on that point.
we ought to see activity continue and pick up through the next 2-4 weeks.
HF 1923z22august
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
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Still a TD at 5pm
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.5 N...27.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 22 2006 04:37 PM)
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ElizabethH
Meteorologist
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Loc: Bay County
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Models are coming together and the storm is taking that NW track. It mentions in the discussion from 5PM today that it is already heading more north than yesterday. Still a TD, but the forecast still brings it up to a TS Debby here very very soon...
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SebastianLou
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
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Loc: Florida
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Just wondering, a local met said something brewing 1000 East of the Islands, does it look like developement soon I'm going to D. R. in 5 days?
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Invest 97L - probably has better chances to TC once in the middle of the Caribbean, than just to the east or within the eastern Carib. IMHO, this invest may readily develop once in the Carib. Mid-level circ within 97L is already close to the surface, convection has been very persistent.. major detractor is current marriage to the , but this will soon change.
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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
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I noticed that the has a possible recon flight scheduled for Thurs if this system holds together. The early track and intensity models are interesting though bringing anything from a depression to a high end cat 1 hurricane into the caribbean in about 5 days or so. obviously this could turn into our main feature very soon. from what i have read the shear shouldnt be too bad in the next few days and it will actually enter an even more favorable environment once it gets to the caribbean. http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
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LaVidaCyclone
Weather Watcher
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Loc: SW FL
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I remember Mayfield mentioning that last season. I was thinking how the Gulf Coast might be a prime location for this scenario, considering how incredibly quick storms like , and intensified once they entered the Gulf.
About TD #4 and those waves; things are getting pretty interesting. We're entering the heart and soul of the season now so I'll be checking the tropics a lot more regularly than I already have been.
The west ATL, carib. and GOM loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html
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2004: Alex, Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne
2005: Dennis, Katrina, Ophelia, Rita, Wilma
2006:?
Edited by LaVidaCyclone (Tue Aug 22 2006 06:42 PM)
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wereallgonnadie
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: nw fla
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Maybe. Does anyone have a link to the steering currents map? I've seen it somewhere before just can't remember where it links. Anyone also heard what JB is saying?
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HurryCaneForm
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
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Quote:
Maybe. Does anyone have a link to the steering currents map? I've seen it somewhere before just can't remember where it links. Anyone also heard what JB is saying?
Wereall...."
I don't know if this link might help but take a look at it.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html
Michael.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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Might just be me...but looking at Atlantic floater 1 and putting in the forcast points...it looks well west of the last forcast point and looks like it has more of a westward component. Also showing a big flareup near the center.
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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SirCane
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Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Look out for 97L the next few days........
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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Quote:
Might just be me...but looking at Atlantic floater 1 and putting in the forcast points...it looks well west of the last forcast point and looks like it has more of a westward component. Also showing a big flareup near the center.
I was just thinking the same exact thing... I didn't see ANY northward component looking at the satellite loop... so it must be an optical illusion from the angle of the satellite, or something.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Perhaps, although this relatively real-time image and plot from CIMSS ADT suggests that it is more an illusion, as the actual coc is probably well north of the deepest convection.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Actually the Final Guess location is just NE of the coldest cloud tops...signified by the red outlined blue square.
Almost identical shot from the floater...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/img/2006234_2345bd.jpg
Cloud top temperatures have warmed by at least 20C over the last 3.5 hours. Noticed the decline of the bright white over the central core area.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-bd.html
Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 22 2006 08:35 PM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Yeah, aware of the Final Guess, but I'll concede a lack of faith in it - for the reasons you mentioned below - being that the the coldest cloud tops are now warming quite a bit - given that, not so sure that the coc isn't closer to the warmest pixel, as the TC seems to be undergoing a pronounced waning this evening.
Perhaps overnight action/inaction followed by sunrise will shed much needed light on whether this is the start of the end, or merely an interruption.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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The 00Z model suite was initialized with a "TROPICAL STORM FOUR" with winds of 35kt, suggesting that we'll see TD 4 upgraded to TS Debby at 11pm. The center appears to be on the north edge of the convection, as Danny mentioned, but is slowly becoming better organized. Track and intensity thinking are still largely unchanged from this afternoon (see the blog/main page for details).
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Forward motion/ track. From the Advisories.
Initial Position...5PM AST (Monday)..12.5/21.5
5AM AST position...12.8/ 24.6
5PM AST position...14.5/ 27.5
12 hour movement...5 AM to 5 PM...1.7deg N/ 2.9deg W
24 hour movement...5PM Mon. to 5 PM Tue...2.0deg N/ 6.0deg W.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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Doesn't usually get word of an upgrade a couple of hours before it is due to occur? The site still lists the system as 04LNONAME. I'm not saying it won't be upgraded, but it doesn't look better organized to me than it was at the 5pm advisory. There's some shear, too, it seems.
Edit - Well, now shows the system as 04LNONAME, but the latest image also shows pressure down to 1003 MB and top winds estimated at 35kts, which would make it Debby - so I'm confused!
97L doesn't look too impressive to me right now, either... there is a bunch of clouds aloud the from south fo Hispaniola to halfway between the Lesser Antilles and TD Four, and I assume some of that is what is considered 97L, but it all looks pretty much the same to me.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Tue Aug 22 2006 09:21 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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The page seems to be a better indicator of early classification of waves as depressions than of depressions becoming storms. It's still not a given that it becomes Debby at 11p, either, though that's what they were thinking as of the 8p model runs. Given the satellite appearance, however, and what data are available out there, I don't see why they would decide not to upgrade since then if they had indeed planned on upgrading it as of then.
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
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I just looked at the CIMSS web site and that have bumped the up to T3.0 with a pressure of 998.8mb and Vmax of 47K. So is it possible for it to be bumped up at 11:00PM advisory?
EDIT: The backup of the site now has their's as 04.FOUR NRL Backup
Edited by Hurricane Fredrick 1979 (Tue Aug 22 2006 09:55 PM)
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nl
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it looks sick right now tho. does this mean it go further south?
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Check the text listing on the ADT site. It shows that the weakening flag is on.
Raw is down to 2.2raw...where at 2245Z it was a 4.0raw.
The center region has cooled just a bit, but the mean cloud temperature is still rising.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/FOUR-list.txt
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nl
Storm Tracker
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still looks like its going west below the second tropical point.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
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we have TS now DEBBY
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 22 2006
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM...
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...15.2 N...28.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 22 2006 10:28 PM)
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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1020
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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I just felt more TCQ points washing out to sea.
So, 4 is now Debby, yet 93L was not a TD.
I just want to get my stats right, here.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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Debby is a fish spinner...and has a 60% chance of becoming a hurricane down the road...but nothing really to get excited about...
Next area will be the Carribean in a couple days....
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1020
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Debby was probably Debby as early as 12-18 hours ago, but is TD Debby this late night, IMHO. Reading the Discussion, the arguments which have been made were quite compelling, of course, but would have been far more applicable much earlier - not now.
In any event, Debby just made history in my book - next to Hermine - not Hermine to be sure, but close-enough.
Ah, heck. Enough of my whining. Looks like Debby is steadily regaining her footing, so a tip of the hat to for doing what they do best (Tropical Cyclones). Simply wish they would have just upgraded her when there was so much more meat on her bones, and the stats which they cited at 11p were also very current.
Looking ahead with Debby is what I, we, all should be doing now. Official forecasts have her as a minimal hurricane by the end of the coming weekend, and has expressed some concern that she may miss her ride, and proceed west, not northwest. To quote, because this is so very important to watch for:
"THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
WAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GUNA...GUNS...AND
CONU CONSENSUS MODELS. AS MENTIONED IN LAST NIGHT'S DISCUSSION...
IF DEBBY DOESN'T REACH 20-25N LATITUDE IN 72-96 HOURS... THEN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FORECAST WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL BYPASS THE CYCLONE."
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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CMC Global:
Debby...Recurve near 30N/ 52W at 144hrs. 6 days. (Monday Night)
97L..centered just North of the Yucatan Peninsula, in the GOM. 144 hrs (Monday Night)
***********************
GFDL:
Debby...Centered near 34N/ 52W, 971mb, 103kts (118mph) at 06Z Aug 28,2006 (Early Monday Morning)
97L...Centered just North of Puerto Rico, near 19.5N/ 66.5W, 1001mb,58kts (66mph) at 06Z Aug 28,2006 (Early Monday Morning)
********************
GFS:
Debby...Basically the same recurve point as the Model.
97L... Maintains 850mb signature passing between Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic. Decrease in intensity over N Haiti at 144hrs.
********************
FSU :
Debby...Forecast to 25N/ 50W at 120 hrs (5 days) Sunday Night. This model decreases the 850mb signature and elongates the wave at the above point.
97L...Passing over Western Puerto Rico and Northern Haiti at 120 Hours (Sunday Night). Much more impressive signature over Haiti, than the Model run.
**************************
NOGAPS:
Debby...Takes the 850mb system to near 25N/ 55W at 144hrs.
97L... More Southerly track of the models, so far.
Taking the system to just North of Panama before spinning it up. Then offshore to the MX/ Belize Boder and crossing the Yucatan Peninsula toward the BOC at 144hrs.
********************
Debby...nearly identical to the model run.
97L...Winds the present system down after passing over the Lesser Antilles. Attempts to spin the system back up just North of Panama. Takes it inland on the Northern Honduran Coast.
(Possibility of feedback due to a stronger cyclone on the Pacific side of the Isthmus of Panama being in close proximity)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
With the exception of the model. All of the above are the 850mb vorticity product!~danielw
Always use Official Products and Bulletins for planning and life safety.
Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 23 2006 03:40 AM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1020
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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That 0331Z Aqua referred to in the 5AM discussion..
is a doozie!
I've just gone from skeptic to convert in three seconds flat. At this rate, I can see H. Debby by Friday, if not sooner.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Cropped 0945Z Visible picture of Debby. Notice the Convective Clusters in the North Quadrant.
Updated Visible Image link
Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 23 2006 06:50 AM)
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