SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 248
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Ugh, bad bad news. Only a matter of time I guess.
Lets not begin the "panic" type posting. Nothing is certain at all...
I wouldn't say I was panicking. I do hope for the best. It was just only a matter of time before "something" close to home formed.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Sea Mule
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 8
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The sees this thing as already starting to develop convection, especially around the north and west quadrants.
this will be interesting. Storms in August that enter the GOM are not a good thing. I logged in for years as Rick in Mobile. good to be back. this is the first storm worth talking about. You already know what I think. I don't post until I know it's gonna be a "bad" one.
I'm in New Orleans at a refinery in Chalmette, La. still tore up around here. streets off Rampart have no power. (poor area)
New Orleans, and really, anywhere around here, can't take any more. hope this fizzles. However, if one were to plot a storm in a "most likely" spot to curve into the gulf...we have it...
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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I must say, as the evening is progressing, TD Five is not looking any more impressive. Granted, with the sun down there's no visible imagery, but it's very hard to see any west wind in either IR or WV loops right now. The convection wraps around all but the south side of the apparent LLC, but it looks more like an arc than a true circulation.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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johnnyg
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: New England(Maine)
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There is a 1016mb high pressure system in the Central GOM, and looks like it will "park" itself there over the weekend, so if that happens it will be put in the Central GOM, if everything holds it looks like Houston, Texas, central part of Louisiana(Not good news!!), but we will see how these upper level features pan out. The next 24hrs will play a big part on where or TD#5 survives the trip through the Caribbean Sea... Waiting for the newest computer models to come out and see if anything changes...
http://iwave.rsmas.miami.edu/surf/images/tanal.1.gif
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SebastianLou
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida
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We in Florida refuse to have anymore Hurricane! If someone knows, From the look of the projected area that this system is headed, is it true that it could end up anywhere from Mexico to Florida within 1 week?
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johnnyg
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: New England(Maine)
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Well, let's not get too excited about this storm yet!! It still needs to survive the trip into the Caribbean first. The next 24-48hrs are very crucial if we have a hurricane or a "Chris" out there... Just stay alert and keeping checking in now and then... But as of know yes from Mexico to Florida just hang in there...
I know how you feel because my summer condo in Fort Myers, Florida was badly damaged durning Hurricane .. And I don't even live down there all year round, so I know how you Floridians feel about the word "Hurricane" Hang in there
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SebastianLou
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida
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CHRIS? ARE WE FORGETTING THE NEXT STORM IS !
I believe he was using "Chris" as an example of what might happen now... Chill
Edited by Storm Cooper (Thu Aug 24 2006 08:32 PM)
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Mike Gaynor
Unregistered
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Guys I think we finally have a new LLC with winds up to 40 + .. Earnesto could be born at 11 p.m. tonight. The banding features look awesome tonight and wrapping around the "new" center of circulation.
Heres that impressive image of TD5 (Ernesto)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-rb.html
Wow those Feeder bands look great. I'd call it a 50 mph storm. Lets hope it's not doing a on us LOL.
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johnnyg
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: New England(Maine)
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Yes, I know that the next storm is , and I was refering to Chris because it died out almost in the same spot.. Sorry for the confusion
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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get ready, huh? ready for hype.
i'm personally a tad worried.. same way i felt about chris. chris was a glorious bust, after behaving correctly for about 48 hours. in other words, as with any unofficial forecast, my take is just that... use with caution. of course, every now and again... i bag one of these. this is my de-hyped version outlining a few scenarios of what may happen. some aren't so bad, some aren't so nice.
t.d. 5 hasn't gotten over all it's hurdles, but if we're looking at a strengthening on friday and the upper low to the northwest is still detaching and drawing away... hoo boy. if it isn't dead tomorrow then the chances it will find a way to not be a problem start to drop progressively. right now i'm leaning on it surviving and being a threat.. around 75-25. by threat i mean major hurricane.
i'm hoping they fly a g4 mission down there in the next day or two to feel out the atmosphere around the storm a little better. i'm also hoping that the 00Z runs start to agree on a system being there... if that's the reality we're facing then the sooner they start showing its feedbacks to the environment around it the more confident we can be about where it's going. assuming it doesn't kill itself, there are three basic possibilities with several variations:
1) it stays sheared, travels more quickly and more westward.. and hits areas like honduras and mexico as a weaker system. something probably in the tropical storm range.
2) it more or less follows the track, towards the yucatan channel. leftward would imply that it stays a mexico menace... the yucatan would weaken it and impart a more westward track towards mainland mexico. a track right through the channel would be bad news for texas... a more rightward track near western cuba would imply the central gulf coast. the latter two sub-circumstances would likely mean a mature hurricane strike.
3) it strengthens quickly, travels closer to the greater antilles.. striking them as a hurricane.. being weakened and travelling over them this weekend.. and ending up as a strong tropical storm to low-end hurricane in waters near florida. this would be a slower-moving scenario.
the reason i'm keeping florida out of a major threat is that the H50 ridge is shown in several model plots as being centered more or less over the state late next week. none really show the effect that a large hurricane abutting such a feature.. but it would likely be more peaked than shown and deflecting the storm around it into the gulf. the further west (central america) scenarios include a weaker system, since a stronger one would naturally work its way poleward and the ridging in this situation as well as the deep layer steering imply that a strong system wouldn't simply dash westward into central america.
the really serious threat this one could pose would be to the texas or louisiana coasts. i don't think it will turn up east of 90w.. more than likely just gently recurve along the ridge axis, pumping it and amplifying it, causing weaknesses to deepen a tad near the edges. with the leading upper low shown cutting off and then looping back up into texas, i'd expect that a weak inverted trough aloft will be associated with it, and that will be what the storm targets. i.e., the storm should more or less follow the upper low, or just to the right of its path.
ah well... point is... unless this thing finds a method of suicide like chris did, it can work itself up into a scary storm and potentially hit the western half of the gulf coast mid-late next week. that is the worst case scenario here. i don't need to tell anybody how big a hurricane can get in the gulf during the last week of august. but right now.. it's just a tropical depression that has the potential to be a problem.
HF 0055z25august
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Right now, I'm a bit speculative that a new low has formed. I was thinking the same thing...But then I thought, hey....maybe the mid-level low is displaced back to the east of the surface low...then I thought...hmmm, this infrared stuff sets up a lot of optical illusions sometimes and you just don't get the same quality as out of the visible with these weak systems.
So, in checking out the Shortwave loop, I also noticed it wasn't as telling either (did look as thought the surface feature was closer to the leading edge though)...but then I clicked on the upper air flow and it appears that this "reformation" we think we are seeing as an optical illusion due to some upper air winds working on the cloud tops. Gotta admit though, still tough to say for sure...but it pretty much looks that way.
Link to shortwave loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html
Models: Yeah, they aren't doing too well right now...God bless the Canadian model for it's consistancy...but it is moving way to fast which throws a lot out the window...at that speed we know it would plow into the upper low in the west carrib for one thing...on a second note, that agressive forward track has it missing several other features that may come into play later down the road. Saw the 18Z ...it initialized better and was on a path a little south of the 12Z ...between the 950 and 850 mb vorticity...it had it through Central Cuba as a weak system. Fact is...these models are gonna windshield whiper...also, there are features that may affect this 6-7days out that are just off the model grid entirely. There will be lots of changes ahead, so I'm kinda prefering to stick to the present +2 days...to see if this thing even survives the upcomming challenges.
Content EDIT:  Gotta admit...Mother nature has bit my fingers once or twice with longer term calls this year...so I feel best watching this system over the next 2 days to see what kind of strength/organization it will get before I make any calls on it out 4-5 days from now. Personally wouldn't want to mislead anyone at any one given location along the gulf right now myself. 
Edited by dem05 (Thu Aug 24 2006 09:17 PM)
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 113
Loc: Mobile,Alabama 30.77N 88.14W
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If what you are saying is true then there is one heck of a battle going on. Because there is a ULL in the NCGOM and is expected to sit there over the weekend giving us here along the NGOM the needed rain that we need.
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johnnyg
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: New England(Maine)
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This is what I have been saying most of the night, as of now if that High pressure in the GOM stays as strong as it is now, then it looks like a Texas, Lousiana Coast hit.. This is only if the storm survives its trip. That's why these next few model runs, and upper air features are very important these next few days before we all start to panic for the people of the Gulf Coast. I too hope the NOAA sends a G-4 plane out there, because that upper low is going to play a big part on how strong or weak TD5 or is going to be
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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panic? who's going to panic. if you have a week or more to prepare for such a possibility, there need not be a panic. people who panic make good victims.
if the forecast track holds and an implicit track into the western gulf is what the keeps advertising, i'm sure the emergency planning types will get everything they need to in order, and local authorities will use the media to prepare coastal residents for whatever is in order. they won't have more than speculation and long range modeling to go on for a couple more days... by about saturday the threat to the u.s. should be more apparent (an active system will have a movement cone implying an area of greatest threat to a section of the u.s. coast.. or maybe a caribbean coastline).
i like to think that in some way, calculated speculation on what TD 5/future might do from this site and other sources official and not will work its way around to people and get them to do the basics before something scary is bearing down on them.
HF 0133z25august
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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I agree, HF, that if people are warned of the possibilities, they will probably be more likely to take action. After last year, I would hope people would take any potential major hurricane in the GOM as a serious threat if they are in or even near the cone.
I'm not certain on the western GOM threat, though. I think it's far too early to limit the threat to that area, given that both the and BAMM models putting a bullseye on the central Gulf (Louisiana in particular). Everyone from the Keys to Texas needs to keep a careful eye on this system, though, until the path becomes clearer.
We will know more in 2-3 days, assuming that we still have a system after it passes through the graveyard that is the eastern Caribbean. Looks like deep convection has formed again on the west side of the storm, so I'd be surprised if it's not by the next advisory.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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As of this time...the has not implied that there will be a tropical cyclone in the western Gulf...the official track only makes it to the Yucatan Channel at this time. The Error cone (Which is more important than the skinny black line) only makes it to the south central and southeast gulf at this time as well. This is not the time or the place, but I cannot concur with statements regarding emergency planning on the government level (They are ongoing) or decisions and feelings of individual citizens in the career that I am in.
On a side note, it is apparent that 05 definately did not redevelop to the SE...it was an optical illusion. Nice t-storms developing right around the western periphery of the surface center now though.
Edit: I meant western, not eastern periphery. Also, I think I should clarify my other statements cause I didn't mean to sound blunt...I am quite sure there are individual folks that are on edge when hearing the possible prospect of a hurricane in the Gulf...especially in the North Central Gulf. As far as emergency personnel planning...folks in this line of work throughout the Gulf have enough knowledge of a storm out there that they are reveiwing their proceedures and making considerations and plans should this head in their general direction. There is not a wait for until the skinny black line passes right over a jurisdiction before acting anymore...a lot has changed (I call it proactive instead of reactive).
Edited by dem05 (Thu Aug 24 2006 10:04 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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11pm ET advisory is out... no , yet.
The new forecast track is shifted northward slightly - Day 5 position is now right on the western tip of Cuba as a minimal (65kt) hurricane.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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Not enough time for a full update tonight, but some thoughts on TD 5 and Debby before heading out for the night.
TD 5
Trying to become a bit better organized, but still needs to slow down some. Environment ahead is not as favorable as it should be quite yet, but it's a non-linear feedback loop. If the convection continues to fire and organize with TD 5, it'll start to help moderate the upper level environment to some degree. It's on the far eastern edge of a SAL outbreak now and, given the direction of the shear (southeasterly, give or take), it's not likely to have any further impact. HF's three scenarios look like plausible evolutions for this one.
A brief look at the model fields suggest that all of them pull TD 5 toward the general area of Jamaica, whether or not they take the depression close to Hispaniola beforehand, in the 3 day time frame. Intensity is highly dependent upon the shearing environment and speed of the system; a slower storm is more likely to have a better shot at getting organized plus seeing a more favorable upper level environment. The intensity could be 20kt too low or too high at that time.
Beyond that, the models diverge in their tracks toward the Gulf based upon how they handle the evolution of a cut-off low currently over the NW US. The keeps this feature fairly distinct through the forecast period, even amplifying it somewhat in the vicinity of the Great Lakes region toward the end of the period (~5-6 days out). For a strong storm, this is generally enough to pull it northwest to northward and would suggest a potential threat further east in the Gulf. Nominally, I'd like to see this forecast linger and/or appear in more models (other than the and its derivatives) before putting a lot of stock in it, but we are in the season where daily disturbances associated with these cut off features can help to maintain and amplify them...so I'm not going to discount it at all right now. Other models are not as distinct with this upper low and forecast more ridging in the eastern US in the 5-6 day time period and thus a potential threat further west in the Gulf, mostly the Texas/Mexico area.
Thus, the track is likely going to be highly dependent upon the specific evolution of upper level features across the central US during the forecast period as well as the ultimate intensity of the storm. No matter what, a weaker storm is more likely to travel more westward; a stronger storm poses more of a threat to the Greater Antilles and much of the Gulf and is where the upper level environment becomes more critical to the ultimate path of the storm. No one in the Gulf should feel that they are out of the woods for this one for some time, not until we can get a better handle on how strong this one is going to get as well as what is happening in the central US.
In other words...stay tuned.
Debby
Finally starting to leave the stable low-level environs, but encountering southerly shear and a tad bit of dry air penetration. Its convection continues to wax and wane as a result. Recurvature between 50-55W seems quite likely and the channel for it to do so is already getting set up. It has a chance to briefly intensify to minimal hurricane intensity as it rounds the ridge and starts to accelerate to the north and northeast (and the storm-relative shear decreases), but shortly thereafter it's long for status as it heads toward the Azores and, ultimately, the British Isles in some form. As Rich B said though, that's still well down the road.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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I think the advice is good to be prepared if one lives along the Gulf coast.
Whether this storm survives or not it is a good time to prepare for the season if one hasn't done so already.
It's a good time to make sure the hurricane kit and plans are ready. I am concerned if the storm gets into the Gulf it will blow up.
And I am concerned about the ridge of high pressure. But right now it is just a wait and see. I wish the news people would place more
emphasis on the "cone of error" and not so much on the black line, especially once a storm comes into the Gulf.
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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN 36.26N 82.72W
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Be prepared is right! If this storm makes it in the gulf we may have a killer on our hands, not good. I noticed the new infrared loop shows a slight wobble to the NW and a strong center of convection. I will be surprised if is not born @ 5am. Unless this thing pulls a Chris.
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