Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


Invest 93L Still Disorganized as it Tracks West to West Northwest Toward Barbados.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 27 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3202 (8 y 9 m) (Wilma)
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | >> (show all)
TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: madmumbler]
      #71373 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:19 AM

We are already making some storm preps. Most here in Tampa won't wake up until 24 hours before the event, if history is correct. That will be just in time to thoroughly pack the highways. Ernesto seems to be developing pretty good outflow channels and muscling up. I won't be on here much today, but will check back from time to time. We have a lot to do early on.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 119
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: madmumbler]
      #71374 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:19 AM

Anyone on the west coast of Florida needs to take today, since its a weekend, and get your hurricane kit together. Get your vehicle(s) fueled, if you have a generator and intend to stay get the fuel for the genny, get your food stocks in order, batteries for lights and radios, etc.

Yes, anyone on the west coast - and if you're in the Keys, you need to be prepared to bug out if an evac is ordered, meaning get all your vital papers and such together and be ready to go.

On the present track Key West is right in the maw of it. That right shift on the 11 AM is NOT good for the Keys at all, as it puts Key West right in the Eyewall. Now of course this far out if the black line is on you odds are good it won't be when the storm gets there, BUT it pays to be prepared.

The only good news out of the 11 AM is that the storm looks to spend 24 hours over Cuba. That is likely to take quite a bit of wind out of his sails, and we can all hope for THAT! But - a SMALL displacement over water would cut his total over-land time to half that (for the COC) which, while it would shift the track somewhat west, would also mean he'd be a much meaner PITA when he emerges into the gulf.

I was a bit surprised to see the track nudge by the NHC on the 11AM; it'll likely move back and forth some over the next 24 hours, and exactly how much of Cuba it hits, and at what angle, will have a big impact on what the strength is coming into the gulf.

In any event I see nothing that would prevent an explosive deepening (assuming the COC holds together going over cuba, and I expect it to) once it emerges. The water there is extremely warm and its not just the surface layer - there's a lot of oceanic heat content, and shear is forecast to be basically non-existant. That, plus established outflow channels is not a good recipe.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Heather
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: TampaRand]
      #71378 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:23 AM

I'd go gas up now. In the time it took me to trade one vehicle for the next, the line tripled. Fortunately I noticed our gas prices are 8 cents below normal today, I expect they will jump as sharply as the lines.

--------------------
When it rains, it pours...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Heather]
      #71380 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:27 AM

This is a part of the AFD out of the Mobile office. Although it was done at 4am this morning there is a good point made...

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LOOKS TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROF BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WAY IT APPEARS NOW...THE EVOLVING FLOW
PATTERN ACTS TO LIFT Ernesto MORE POLEWARD AFTER IT EMERGES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF...EVENTUALLY RE-CURVING THE STORM TO THE NORTHEAST.
EXCEPT FOR INCREASED SWELL...THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK AS OF 09 UTC/4 AM
CENTRAL THIS MORNING WOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
WE STILL NEED TO KEEP IN MIND THAT ERROR IN THE EXTENDED RANGES OF
HURRICANE FORECASTS CAN BE A FEW HUNDRED MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE DAY
4 AND 5 POINTS. FOR SPECIFIC TRACK FORECASTS AND HURRICANE MODEL
DISCUSSIONS REFER TO THE National Hurricane Center WEB SITE:
www.NHC.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.SHTML /10

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice [Re: danielw]
      #71387 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:43 AM

And they upgraded Ernesto to a hurricane, why? They waited such a long time to make it a TS. Now, it doesn't look much stronger than yesterday -- I inferred as much from their discussion. This just doesn't make any sense.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice [Re: RevUp]
      #71388 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:47 AM

Quote:

And they upgraded Ernesto to a hurricane, why? They waited such a long time to make it a TS. Now, it doesn't look much stronger than yesterday -- I inferred as much from their discussion. This just doesn't make any sense.




A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with sustained (1minute) winds of 74mph or greater. The recon flight this morning found winds that strong, whereas they didn't find winds of 39mph or greater when they didn't upgrade it from a T.D. to Ernesto.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Genesis]
      #71389 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:51 AM

If the track continues to move to the right, it will start to look Donna-ish(1960) HOpefully Ernesto will drop in a while off the coast of Cuba smoke a few Cuban cigars and say Howdy to Castro and his brothers. Then mosy on through the mountainous part of Cuba. Until we see that final trek over Cuba and its results, we will have an eye catching storm to watch. I am finishing up the yard work and the last minute shopping today. Our work place will not let us out until the daycare and public schools are shut down. By then there will be nothing available that you really need and the shop keepers will be raking in on the Frenzy.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #71390 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:52 AM

There's a lot to be said for trend forecasting, and if you take the forecast trend for Ernesto, and the significant adjustments in the atmosphere and forecast models -- strength of UL trof and retreat of subtropical ridge -- there's every reason to think the center COULD miss Florida altogether. It's happened plenty of times previously. Watch Ernesto today and see if it stays to the east of the current forecast track. No doubt, we'll be looking at a significantly different forecast tomorrow morning, just like has been happening every day for the past three days.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice [Re: Hugh]
      #71391 - Sun Aug 27 2006 12:01 PM

Thanks for the info -- from what I've seen, the max wind early this morning was 69kt, but aloft, which extrapolated to the surface would be a little closer to 60kt. I think I'm just splitting hairs here. My point is that sometimes you don't have air recon avaiilable, but you've got plenty of satellite and radar evidence to substantiate intensity changes (i.e. depression vs TS or TS vs hurricane).

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: RevUp]
      #71392 - Sun Aug 27 2006 12:06 PM

In order for Ernesto to miss Florida, the storm would have to turn NNW almost immediately, and due north tomorrow. I won't say it's impossible, but it's very unlikely.

As for the intensity, that's true... but in this case, the recon is what they based the upgrade to hurricane on.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sun Aug 27 2006 12:07 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
NEWS PHOTOG
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Loc: Tampa, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: RevUp]
      #71393 - Sun Aug 27 2006 12:09 PM

Not seeing any lines at the gas stations here near Tampa yet. My wife is out getting the few things we need for our kit, such as fresh water. As others have mentioned, we should all be prepared with a hurricane kit early in the season., not putting one together at the last minute. It's almost time to make a decision as to staying or leaving the area, so as not to get caught up in last minute traffic, or not being able to reserve a room somewhere.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ronn
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 111
Loc: Beckley, WV
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice [Re: RevUp]
      #71394 - Sun Aug 27 2006 12:11 PM

Quote:

And they upgraded Ernesto to a hurricane, why? They waited such a long time to make it a TS. Now, it doesn't look much stronger than yesterday -- I inferred as much from their discussion. This just doesn't make any sense.




Ernesto underwent a period of rapid intensification during the early morning hours and generated a small core of hurricane force winds, outside of which the winds are very light. It may not appear very impressive on satellite imagery, but a close-up look reveals a small, but well organized minimal hurricane with the potential to reach Cat 2 strength before reaching Cuba. The center of the storm is currently located just south of Port-Salut on the southern peninsula of Haiti. Sadly, it appears that southern Haiti will experience disastrous flooding and mudslides as the circulation interacts with deforested mountains over 7000 ft. in elevation.

--------------------
Ronn Raszetnik - Hazards Geographer


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice [Re: Ronn]
      #71395 - Sun Aug 27 2006 12:18 PM

Am I correct that recon is still about 2 hours out? Ernesto is a strange storm..2 hours ago it looked like the coc was going to go over the tip of Haiti...but it now looks on both Vis and Infrared that the center has either stalled or is moving very slowley on a due west coarse...I know they wobble but it is interesting to see the shift in convection..also, any Mets, if this storm stalls, could it possibly miss the trough later in the week, and meander around the southern gulf? Especially if it stays south of Cuba?


PS...Its amazing th epower of the media..the paper this morning here in Pcola had last nights track which was right at us, and I went to Lowes this morning to get supplies for a bar b que and the crowds were ridiculous..grabbing gas cans..etc......I guess everyone up here will be well prepared for anything later on.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!

Edited by pcola (Sun Aug 27 2006 12:21 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice [Re: Ronn]
      #71396 - Sun Aug 27 2006 12:19 PM

I must be hallucinating. For the last two hours, it appears that Ernesto has moved almost due west, or may just slightly north of due west. I saw this first on NRL's site, and then on SSD, and now I see it on weather.com, too. It might be an illusion, but the CDO has remained south of the coast of Haiti, and if this motion continues, the impact on the circulation won't be significant (from interaction with 7000 ft mountains in Haiti, that is). Also seems to still be a great deal of southwesterly shear, looking at the cloud tops zooming off to the northest of Ernesto.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Black Pearl
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 32
Loc: Mobile Bay
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice [Re: Hugh]
      #71397 - Sun Aug 27 2006 12:27 PM

Quote:

I must be hallucinating. For the last two hours, it appears that Ernesto has moved almost due west, or may just slightly north of due west. I saw this first on NRL's site, and then on SSD, and now I see it on weather.com, too. It might be an illusion, but the CDO has remained south of the coast of Haiti, and if this motion continues, the impact on the circulation won't be significant (from interaction with 7000 ft mountains in Haiti, that is).



I have noticed this as well. At first I thought it was an illusion but it has seemed to persist. Any thoughts from one of the mets?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2913
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice [Re: Black Pearl]
      #71398 - Sun Aug 27 2006 12:30 PM

I have noticed this as well. At first I thought it was an illusion but it has seemed to persist. Any thoughts from one of the mets?




I'm not a met, but I've seen things like this before, Ivan and Jamaica comes to mind, it shifted west a bit suddenly in a rather large wobble. If it is shifting a bit west, and I'm not totally positive of it. (You can drive yourself crazy trying to follow it that close) then it'll shift the track a bit west. I think we're at the end of the right movement trends for the models, and it may shift a bit more westward if this verifies. I'll watch for Recon reports here when they start coming.

It's always important to remember though that the storm is near Hati, has not crossed cuba yet, and speculation is running rampant (I'm guilty of it too). They may put the watches up for the keys later today because they need the time to prepare moreso than other places along the mainland.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice [Re: Hugh]
      #71399 - Sun Aug 27 2006 12:30 PM

Ernesto looks to have a small core, but a large circulation... especially to the east. If this is the case then land interaction could disrupt the core, but the large circulation would allow the system to hold on, or spit out a new circulation. this could well be the case when Ernie reaches Cuba. however, with the pressure increase this morning, Ernie may be trying to spawn a new LLCc somewhere under the convective shield, allowing the old one to weaken. recon will tell us more.

Also, while interest is on the US, lets not forgot theres alot of people between Ernie now and Florida. And with poor infrastructure, high winds, and 20" rain, this is a real danger to many.

Kind regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
dredlox
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 5
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice [Re: Hugh]
      #71400 - Sun Aug 27 2006 12:31 PM

This is probably very obvious to most, but here's an evacuation tip, if you have to do it.

Take a nap that day, and wait until like 2am-3am to drive. I did that during Charlie, and I hit minimal traffic to Kissimmee from Tampa, despite huge lines in the day.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 996
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice [Re: Black Pearl]
      #71401 - Sun Aug 27 2006 12:35 PM

Looking at the 85GHz pass, it looks like the central convection has wrapped 75% of the way around the core and banding to the south is clearly evident. I see on the gulf IR loop that there is a bloom of convection just west of the COC that is overspanning the COC. It seems to me that the storm is undergoing the normal reorganization required for the shift from an un-banned TS to a banded hurricane, pushing covenction away from the vortex and wrapping that convection around the core.

Pertaining to the relatively lower (997mb) reading for a hurricane in the last recon, it also noted that the eye was open south, which would explain the low rating.

I'm interested to see how this storm impacts with land. It looks quite healthy right now and appears to be barely moving. Next recon should be in in a couple hours, if my timing is correct.

--RC


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice [Re: Ronn]
      #71402 - Sun Aug 27 2006 12:37 PM

Haiti is definitely bearing the brunt of this system, once again. The SE coast has already received upwards of 4 inches of rain and could receive another 8 inches over the next 24 hrs. Yes, sadly, more flash flooding across the deforested landscape.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 4 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is disabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 22311

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center