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Tropical Depression Two in unfavorible conditions, likely to fall apart or dissipate tomorrow.
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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Ernesto.... [Re: tpratch]
      #71807 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:46 AM

Fox News just had forcaster Knabb on and HF just reiterated what he said. HF you are right on according to Knabb at the NHC, Not that I like that scenario being on the east coast of FL here but I would rather KNOW than NOT.

Getting all my gear ready today, just in case.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Ernesto.... [Re: tpratch]
      #71808 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:48 AM

My upstairs shutters are being put up at 2 today. If the read is anything more than a low Cat 1 on Tuesday, the downstairs go on too. I wish for the best and prepare for the worst.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Ernesto.... [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #71809 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:50 AM

It's interesting, they can't fly into the storm now because its over Cuba.

The reason they can't fly into the storm while it's over Cuba is because the plane would be a military aircraft and Cuba would consider that "invading it's airspace" and then it would get ugly.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto? [Re: MikeC]
      #71810 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:50 AM

I'm glad they're being more proactive. Too many people here took Wilma for granted and got nailed.

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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto? [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #71811 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:59 AM

The problem is, even after the last few years, people are complacent. Especially if they havent been affected. Charley was a Cat 3 i think at landfall but by the time it got to us here in Daytona it was barely a Cat 1.
We had a significant amount of damage to trees, power lines hotels on the beachside and power was out most places for at least 7 days. People here say aw, its only a TS or its only a Cat 1. They forget very easily. Then you have people who havent been directly hit at all and the complacentcy really sets in. I was hoping after Katrina last year this would change. I guess we will see after this year.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #71812 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:59 AM

Governer Bush will be holding a p/c at 10:00am. TWC said they will be carrying it live, as I'm sure every national/local news channels will do as well.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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amonty
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
Re: over cuba [Re: HanKFranK]
      #71813 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:00 AM

Just to back up what HF has said. I was doing a little research looking at all the NHC Hurricane Season Map Archives on Wikipedia. I noticed that not one single tropical system was downgraded after crossing Cuba from 1990 to the present. Albeit some lost strength but not to the point they were downgraded. Another thing I noticed is that every system that passed over Cuba from 1990 to the present always intensified in the "bathtub" between Florida and Cuba. Just something to think about if your feeling like letting your guard down!

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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: over cuba [Re: amonty]
      #71814 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:03 AM

What is a sort of rex like feature? What does it mean and how does it work?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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LisaC
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 39
Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am [Re: Colleen A.]
      #71815 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:04 AM

is there a way to watch the press conference on line?

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: Cape Haze Peninsula, SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Ernesto.... [Re: hawg92]
      #71816 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:04 AM

Quote:


If it stays close to the east coast, it can draw warm water inflow from the gulf stream without much hindrance. The land in Florida is flat, so the terrain will not weaken it much as long as it can be fed from the ocean.

Jack




And don't forget the Everglades aren't true "land" and that it's wet and warm enough that it can actually draw a little more strength from that area than it could from "regular" land. And if it goes over Lake O that will help give it a little extra fuel too. Not a lot, but it won't be like slamming into a brick wall if it hit somewhere where the terrain was different.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
(my 2009 guess - 14/7/5)
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: Cape Haze Peninsula, SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto? [Re: NewWatcher]
      #71817 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:08 AM

Quote:

The problem is, even after the last few years, people are complacent. Especially if they havent been affected. Charley was a Cat 3 i think at landfall but by the time it got to us here in Daytona it was barely a Cat 1.
We had a significant amount of damage to trees, power lines hotels on the beachside and power was out most places for at least 7 days. People here say aw, its only a TS or its only a Cat 1. They forget very easily. Then you have people who havent been directly hit at all and the complacentcy really sets in. I was hoping after Katrina last year this would change. I guess we will see after this year.




And the other problem is a LOT of newcomers to the state who think if they live inland, they're "safe" even if it is a Cat 1 or 2. They see pictures of storm surge and beaches and waves and don't think about being INLAND and in danger from winds and tornadoes.

Bottom line is, if you are south of Tampa Bay, or east of Orlando anywhere, shutter up TODAY. Gas up TODAY. Don't wait until the lines are long and the low grade gas is gone.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
(my 2009 guess - 14/7/5)
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 161
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am [Re: Colleen A.]
      #71818 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:09 AM

Since 11PM the track shifted N and E - unreal! This is a real tough call - putting up the panels for TS or weak Cat 1 is a waste of time (dangerous mission on my two story home), but I'm in the dead center of the forecast cone now in central N Broward so it's clear we are going to get all Ernesto has to offer... whatever that might be.

Once again the jump over Cuba is critial since at that point the storm could be ripped apart and never recover, OR it could slide N of Cuba and ramp up to Cat 2 levels. Outflow is not as impressive this AM, but there is a large area of clouds trying to wrap around from the NE. According to the water vapor loop a bunch of dry air just got pushed out of the way but the ULL sitting off the coast of FL thus clearing the way for Ernesto.

I really hate these little weak storms as they are difficult to track and tend to jump all over the place. I'm now offically getting worried.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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mommy21
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 6
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am [Re: LisaC]
      #71819 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:10 AM

Hi,

You can click this link to listen to it...

http://www.cfnews13.com/listen.aspx


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am [Re: mommy21]
      #71820 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:15 AM

I question the upper level conditions at this point. I noticed the upper level low developing over the SE bahamas and clearly visible on water vapor loop. I saw it developing early this morning and as a matter of fact....it appears to be just begining to impact Ernesto as the west and northwest side is flatening as a result of what appears to be shear. Look for the comma developing on the vapor loop over the SE bahamas......any comment would be appreciated...

Edited for content

Edited by Colleen A. (Mon Aug 28 2006 10:27 AM)


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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am [Re: mommy21]
      #71821 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:16 AM

Not pickin I just wanted to correct one small fact. Charley was a strong Cat 4 when it made landfall 6mph away from a Cat 5 150mph sustained winds.

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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re: Ernesto and History [Re: tpratch]
      #71822 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:20 AM

AND...exactly right on comment I am responding and agreeing with////

Didn't someone on here , back when E was still a depression, dismiss it as a threat saying that no Ernesto had ever become a hurricane or hit land? So much for the history books...

History is like climo and extrapolation...all based on past events, do not necessarily indicate the future. Plus, always remember when looking into the past for clues on the present..our 'window' of reliable information vs how long hurricanes have been going on is razor thin....what we think of as normal is just 'usual'...what WE are used to....could be way off or right on, as far as what tropical cyclones really can and will do.

Did the levees ever break before and flood New Orleans to such an extent, before Katrina? How many people died in MS due to their belief that "Camille was as bad as it can be, and we didn't even get wet then!"

Time and tide wait for no man...things change over time, old contexts in the current day can be deadly, or at least, misleading. The template is not the same.

Observation without anaylsis tells us nothing...analysis without context is similarly unhelpful.

MM

Edited by MapMaster (Mon Aug 28 2006 10:23 AM)


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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 161
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am [Re: charlottefl]
      #71823 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:20 AM

Someone on another blog mentioned it but this track is very similar to David: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at197904.asp WOW

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hornedcow
Unregistered




Re: What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto? [Re: madmumbler]
      #71824 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:21 AM

Quote:


Don't wait until the lines are long and the low grade gas is gone.




Hey, I need premium anyway

What time of day EST do the 12Z model runs usually start being available? Probably not in time to use for the 11am advisory, correct?


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Water Vapor Loop [Re: JMII]
      #71825 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:24 AM

JMII -- I just saw the same thing you did on the WV Loop. Here's a link to the WV loop for those of you who want to see it..

Water Vapor Loop

Notice 2 things: a) the area to the North and East looks to be shoving Ernesto a tiny bit to the west. You can also see that the outflow appears to be enlarging and the t-storm activity looks as though it may be blowing up.
b) Look at the dry air retreating to the west in the GOM. It looks as though they are retreating to the NW -- which may or may not be indicative of the general direction Ernesto will take.

It looks to me like Ernesto is getting shoved from the east and pulled by the west...but that's only my opinion.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re:Time stamps [Re: hornedcow]
      #71826 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:24 AM

Running an hour behind again...shows my post exactly 1 hr earlier than I actually posted it, presume same for the others...fyi.

It's 10:24 now, not 9:24....

Edited by MapMaster (Mon Aug 28 2006 10:25 AM)


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