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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: disneyfanfl]
      #71932 - Mon Aug 28 2006 02:28 PM

If the NHC is right about where the center is, which we wont know for sure until recon can go out later, then i would say all the 12Z globals have this storm initialized pretty well as far as location. All the 12Z globals except NOGAPS, which i havent seen yet, show a slight westwardly movement in their track over the peninsula.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 42
Loc: Pinellas County
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: hawg92]
      #71933 - Mon Aug 28 2006 02:29 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Assuming Cuba doesn't kill it (we hope it does) Me personally I think it's either stalled right now or reforming to the NW.




It looks like it has stalled to me also. It still has significant outflow and the thunderstorm activity seems to be increasing, but forward progress is just not there, IMO. Like the NHC said, the COC is ill-defined at best. It would not surprise me if we don't see some significant track changes if it holds together for a while longer.

Jack




What direction do you think the "significant track changes" will be? The the east or west?


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 321
Loc: Orlando, FL
Ernesto - last 48 hours Microwave Imagery at CIMSS [Re: StPeteBill]
      #71934 - Mon Aug 28 2006 02:32 PM

Here is a nice little GIF that shows the track of Ernesto over the last 48 hours:

CIMSS

Here is a link to the latest T-numbers on Ernesto:

WISC EDU

It is interesting to note the last T has increased.. we'll have to see if it is a short blurb or one that remains constant.


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JOC
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: NewWatcher]
      #71935 - Mon Aug 28 2006 02:40 PM

I'm begining to see on sat. that the so called LLC is in the neighborhood of where the NHC say's it is. By the looks of things however, it may emerge off the coast about 6PM and imo perhaps a TD! If by chance that a new LLC does reform near the other cloud mass and eventually over take the whole system, I do not believe that it will do much in the way of changing the ultimate track of the storm but may just delay it a few hours. My question now is does anyone have information on when the next recon will be able to get out there or if there is a scheduled mission for mid evening?

JOC


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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA 29.93N 89.93W
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: doug]
      #71936 - Mon Aug 28 2006 02:42 PM

My goodness, I just woke up (I work nights) so maybe my eyes are still adjusting, but how many voriticies does Ernesto have now?

I see no less than 3! You can still detect a slight spin over Cuba where the center made it's original landfall. Then just off to the east of the island of Cuba right at the edge of the island where it nubs out into the Atlantic and finally now I see another one south of the island right on the line for 75W. It's around 19.0 and 75.0.

Interesting stuff.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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meto23
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: StPeteBill]
      #71937 - Mon Aug 28 2006 02:44 PM

look at 11 am numbers then the 2pm +.04 north .04 west.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
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Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: StPeteBill]
      #71938 - Mon Aug 28 2006 02:47 PM

Ernesto should be downgraded by 5pm to a TD as he moves near the coast but hugs it for another 12 hrs.....

Ernesto pressure should be up near 1009mb...recon cant fly into Cuban airspace to get a exact reading...

Models have always been in good agreement....I hear some say the models have been off...but not the GFDL in the short term or the GFS...remember we go by the GFS and a blend of it and the GFDL with tropical systems....otherwise we take imput on UkMet solutions...

The GFDL is the most reliable model for Tropical systems in the first 48-60hrs on short term movement...intensity wise..it can be majorlly off....The GFS is very well in the medium range..48-72hrs. the NOGAPS model is usually a very consistant model..if its initiated right..the movement will be inline ( in the near term)..and finally the Ukmet is not soo good in the short term but blends in later in the forcast period.. There are times though where it can also be out to lunch!! The CMC usually has a right bias to it...only less then 10% of the time will it pick and keep the same correct path of a tropical system,,,

Forcasts are made through data the NHC recieves and model runs..mainly the short term of the GFDL and the medium range blend of the GFS..and the NOGAPS.....also consideration of the medium term of the Ukmet (if is not a outliner run)...

Expect Ernesto to move along the N coastline of Cuba tonight and emerge off after midnight and pull towards the straits by later in the day....I expect him to be back up to 60mph by later in the day Tuesday.... he should feel the trough later Tuesday night into Weds and bend more NNW....but timing is everything..for he could move up the center of the state and then exit near Melbourne. or follow the midterm of the GFS and Ukmet and make landfall near Marco-Ft. Myers and move out near Daytona-Jacksonville.....if the 2nd happens then expect a landfalling hurricane near 80mph as he will be over water longer....if not..then 60-75mph landfall south of Miami..during the day Weds.


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hawg92
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: Flagstaff, AZ
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #71940 - Mon Aug 28 2006 02:49 PM

Quote:

and finally now I see another one south of the island right on the line for 75W. It's around 19.0 and 75.0.




I'm glad you saw that too. I saw it earlier, but didn't say anything because I'm not a meteorologist and people tend to get harsh sometimes. If that becomes the COC, what do you think will happen to the track?

Jack

--------------------
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then, is not an act but a habit - Aristotle


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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: hawg92]
      #71941 - Mon Aug 28 2006 02:54 PM


The one thing that seems clear (relative to finding a COC, anyway) is that the shear to the west and north of the storm has really relaxed quite a bit in the last 6 hours or so. If the center is where NHC put it, or even relocating, it looks like predictions of good outflow are accurate. Thuderstorm activity is increasingly concentric despite center being over or close to land.


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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA 29.93N 89.93W
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: hawg92]
      #71942 - Mon Aug 28 2006 02:56 PM

Not really willing to speculate until I see what really happens here with the organization of the system. I tell you though after just loading up the infared and taking a look at that, there seems to be something seriously going on around that point (19/75).

I'm watching with interest for the next couple of hours as to what happens with Ernesto.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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LisaC
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 39
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #71943 - Mon Aug 28 2006 02:59 PM

I understand the Broward County Courthouse will be closed Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday. I find that to be a little much at this point, unless the Judges are just trying to squeeze the most out of the labor day weekend.

Does anyone know when they can get recon out there again?


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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: LisaC]
      #71944 - Mon Aug 28 2006 03:03 PM

Quote:

I understand the Broward County Courthouse will be closed Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday. I find that to be a little much at this point, unless the Judges are just trying to squeeze the most out of the labor day weekend.

Does anyone know when they can get recon out there again?




As soon as its passes Cuba, I'm sure. Schools have been closed here until Wednesday, pending further word on organization from the hurricane center.

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Edited by Josh Delsman (Mon Aug 28 2006 03:13 PM)


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JFTD3
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: MikeC]
      #71945 - Mon Aug 28 2006 03:13 PM

Last series of Model runs want to take this more on a Westerly tract again. Any notice of that?

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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN 36.26N 82.72W
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #71946 - Mon Aug 28 2006 03:13 PM

The new vis. image is out and I think this is where the center of the storm is. Correct me if I am wrong.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: JFTD3]
      #71947 - Mon Aug 28 2006 03:17 PM

I noticed, but not sure if that's a good thing. Might take it over water longer.

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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #71949 - Mon Aug 28 2006 03:19 PM

Quote:

The new vis. image is out and I think this is where the center of the storm is. Correct me if I am wrong.





I think you are correct. It may be even just NW of that location more near the coast.

Looking at the visual sat pics, you can really see a nice rotation just at the coast with a lot of cloud cover wrapping around.


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Ken-SRQ
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 7
Loc: Sarasota, FL
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: mommy21]
      #71951 - Mon Aug 28 2006 03:20 PM

Typically, the hurricane Hunters do not fly over land, whether it is Cuba, U.S., or anybody else. The explanations that I have heard for this are that they don't to risk the lives of people on the ground if there is a crash, and that there are frequently tornadoes found in hurricanes over land.

As for Cuba, in the past the NOAA flights have usually been granted permission to use Cuban airspace, but not the Air Force flights. I am not sure what they are doing this year, what with the political situation being what it is.

Here is a link to the NOAA P-3's that are allowed over Cuba:

http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/stories/sir19.html

Here is a link that has the flight path at the bottom of the page showing the trvels over Cuban airspace.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/20sep00recon.html


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #71952 - Mon Aug 28 2006 03:21 PM

I live in St. Lucie County, FL (right where eyes of Frances and Jeanne landed); and our schools close early Tuesday and will be closed all day Wednesday.
I work for Lowe's and ohhhhh boy, were we ever busy today!


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dolfe
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: JFTD3]
      #71954 - Mon Aug 28 2006 03:22 PM

I have noticed a more westward tendency with the models as well but I think that everyone is waiting for the recon to be able to get in there and confirm this possible fact . I am here in Lee county and yesterday people were starting to pay attention however everything has relaxed a bit since the official track is more east .We will have to scramble tomorrow if this thing comes back toward the west coast of FL

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: dolfe]
      #71956 - Mon Aug 28 2006 03:26 PM

I would suggest that if you are in a "relaxed" area of Florida that you get supplies now. Gas lines here are long & the grocery stores are impossible. Worse case scenario you've got a full tank and cabnets.

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