cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Upper level setup is brutal along the east coast and in the GOM - and looks to stay that way for a little longer. Some models keep wanting to lower pressures rather substantially in the Caribbean over the next seven days, so there might be something trying to coalesce down there. I can no longer make out the surface low which was being tracked as 97L, and all that is left is the tail of old 96L, now essentially free of Isaac, and getting chewed-up today by shear... although in the meantime the diffluence is enhancing a few of it's showers. I might not write off the wave mentioned above coming off Africa - just yet - as it is a very healthy one , and does look as if it will survive the trip all the way to the coast, afterall.. but the environment is a changing. I would be shocked if we do not see at least 2 more named systems before the end of the year, but the trend this year has indeed been to steer them well away from the states.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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It seems that Dr. Grey's team was only off by 1 storm for September (97L took a run at it). He was also right about the intense hurricanes (2).
What will October bring? 
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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two named storms, one hurricane was the earlier prediction for october given by the colostate guys. i'd expect them to hang their hats on it again.
isaac is beginning to depart rapidly... obviously feeling the advancing upper trough in a big way now. it came further west than the last two, but not florence. might nick newfoundland on the way out, though, which is more than any of the others that formed during september managed.
the deep layer low out in the eastern atlantic hasn't developed cleanly like some of the models are showing, and resembles more a typical upper trough. it's southern shear axis extends down to the region around 40w, which will probably chop up the rather impressive tropical wave just past the cape verdes. it's fairly normal for a feature like that to block/shut down the CV source region around this time. there's a frontal tail stagnating near the bahamas, but not a whole lot of mid-upper vorticity getting left behind to fester. we're probably back to an empty ocean when isaac departs.
we've had close to the long-term average season so far this year in the atlantic. the eastpac has been a little quiet and isn't terribly likely to generate more storms. a 'real' el nino signal would have enhanced things over there a bit. leaves me wondering if the reasons for our low activity in this historical period aren't due to simpler things, like longwave pattern with strong ridging over the continent/trough in the western atlantic, the stronger SAL, enhanced , and lower latitude of the subtropical ridge. SSTs sure weren't the problem (near and above normal over large expanses of the tropical atlantic).
HF 1656z01october
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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
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Jeff Masters and Accuweather have both mentioned the disturbed area around the Bahamas along the old front might possibly develop later in the week or into the weekend. Dr. Masters mentioned if it did it would move NE out into the ocean, but wont the high pressure be in place still off the southeast coast and wouldnt that push it back to the west or SW or will the high be gone by then? That area has persisted for several days now.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 488
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
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It does look like something is trying to take shape:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
With the track record of this season, I think the odds are strongly against anything
but a quick recurvature.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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I'm not very impressed with the frontal remnants along the east coast. Lots and lots of shear. Shower activity is being deceptively enhanced by the upper-levels, without much chance, if any, of coalescing into a depression of any tropical nature at the surface. Maybe conditions become more favorable later in the week, but for now I really think it's a non-starter.
More likely in the nearer-term I think the deeply-stacked non-tropical low centered near 30W 30N looks to have a shot of becoming at least subtropical over the next 72 hours, or so. Also, models still want to bubble something in the southern Caribbean. There's also that low near 10N 33W, but for now upper-level winds are not treating it kindly.
Unless one of these pops by the end of the week, I would think Isaac might be it for a bit.
I've got to amend my comment on 30W 30N - the more I've looked at the loops this afternoon the more I believe it is already on the precipice of being a subtropical storm. Speaking of which, has the 98L tag up at 30 knots.
Edited by cieldumort (Mon Oct 02 2006 06:21 PM)
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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hmm wouldnt bet on Isaac as the last storm of the year.. In fact not for sure but the has a Carribean storm on the loose in 2 weeks. Way far to tell right now. Though whats not far to tell is a Possible Kirk off the east coast by 144 hours as every Global Model is developing it. Joyce should but may not be the sub-tropical feature near the azores. Thats not looking as good as it did yesterday. had that wave off of Africa going but since Isaac is gone can't really tell. It's really been a usual Hurricane season. We did beat 1997 as they only went up to Grace. Though really start watching stuff closer to home and people for the last time...... It's not over yet so please don't say its done. " Remember " ... It could happen again. 
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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gray doesn't think it's done. two more, one a hurricane, is his plug. sounds about right.
the subtropical-wannabe out south of the azores isn't really developing a sound surface low. the upper trough remains too sharp for hybridization of the system, as it can't keep a convective region going. that's going up and out in a couple of days.
closer in most of the globals have an interesting feature off the southeast... basically an inverted trough responding to passing shortwaves, spitting a low up towards the mid-atlantic that gets blocked and cyclonically whipped around offshore. it'll be under a whole lot of southwesterly shear most likely, so chances of a tropical development aren't very high.
there are still tropical waves crossing the basin, and one could still develop into something if one of those autumn highs drops in and forces a 'rebound' from the tropics... but the quick transit and pacific-type airmasses that are dominating north america don't usually set such things into motion. next time the pendulum swings, it could still happen. is still cooking up caribbean mischief, but that's a model pipe dream for now.
our rather mundane hurricane season this year really illustrates how intense the run of the last two years has been.
HF 2139z03october
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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I would actually submit that the feature now out near 32N 31W was a subtropical cyclone yesterday - but a subtropical storm most likely not meeting the subjective requisites usually followed at . (There have been quite a good number of alternate definitions of what should and should not be included in the count when it comes to subtropical storms, and of course perhaps someday considers these and adjusts accordingly, but for now it never seemed to "have it." ) Still, in a nutshell, for the better part of 18 hours, even in the absence of especially deep convection near the center, there was some deepish convection at times - and also numerous 35-45 knot vectors *classically* between 40 and 100 miles from the coc.
With the old LLC clearly washed out as the parent upper and mid level circs drifted north over cooler waters, this afternoon a new LLC has formed much closer to 29N 34.5W, with some notable convection building in the region of this new low level center. The new low level center is clearly identifiable on the 2034Z QuikScat. Given the very unfavorable upper-level winds throughout the basin, I don't give this new 98L-related feature much chance, but it could pop, especially if the upper-levels just relax long enough to give it a fighting chance.
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Some further Study is required of this feature on my part here...However, the Bay of Camp. is an area of reference in my mind now. Generally, there is ridging western half of the GOMex/BOC. The wave in the BOC seems to be demonstrating some slight promise and curvature is growing with and orientation that is now NNW to SSE (Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html ). As far as the models...severalon the site are showing at least some weak vorticity and slinging it westward into the Mexican Coast. Based on history, this is a true possibility. However, the amplified troughing pattern may make things interesting in the US if something pops up.
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 146
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
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Things could get somewhat interesting in the next week or two as the Pulse makes its way into the Gulf of Mexico and parts of the caribbean.
Here is a pic of the threw Mid- October. BLUE areas mean upward-motion which is greatly needed for tropical development.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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nice contribution H.29, i'd like to know where you snagged that image. that more or less coincides with the feature is trying to make in the western caribbean. contrary to what i was expecting this month the ensembles are keeping a persistent max on the subtropical ridge near the southeast through mid-month. in other words, steering could be such that a tropical cyclone down there would come north to the vicinity of florida. haven't been keeping track, but the 'look' of the basin makes me think we're under the positive (inhibiting) part of the wave... and that the westpac is currently under the negative part. with it forecast to go negative here later this month, that would make some sense.
last time we had an el nino (aside from the weak/overshadowed one in 2004), during the end of the 2002 season... things ended sort of early. kyle and lili persisted into october, and the last system was the season's 14th depression in the northwestern caribbean that never really got going, got munched by the shear monster.
HF 0629z04october
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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 71
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
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interestingly enough attributed drier air at the mid levels for limiting the tropical storms that formed in September. He noted that the shear monster was below normal.
He did note the unusual rapid increase in the El Nino and that was to play a major role in this October, but the way I took it was that the El Nino did not play a major role in August/Sept.
Comments welcomed.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Things could get interesting indeed. Globals showing development in/near the Bahamas in the short/medium range. Still a lot of shear, but some baroclonic forcing could allow development. , and UKMET showing a low there near the islands, with the moving it into south Florida. GOM looks like it could produce something, and a nice circulation is developing well to the SW of 98L. If the phase brings more favorable conditions, there could be a solid round of development during the next couple of weeks. Not over yet. Cheers!!
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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Yes things are yet again starting to look interesting. the so called "blob" eats of Florida I think is the low the , , and UKMET is trying to get going. Accuweather calls it a nor'easter (coastal storm) Though I believe the models are right, It may not be just non tropical. Accuweather has been proved wrong alot of times this year so I really can't buy what they say much. now has the "carribean storm" in 2 weeks heading in the Gulf. Again still is a 1 out of 100% as of now for this actually happening. Though they do see the going on there. It's been an unusually quiet season but it deffinatly is'nt over yet.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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I guess I have to concede improving interest in the persistent batch of showers and thunderstorms to the northeast of Cuba. While upper-level winds are still rather unfriendly, they appear to have come down a bit to levels that I suspect "could" allow something to slowly take hold at the surface. Indeed, thunderstorm tops have cooled to below -60 today, and perhaps someone else with more patience than myself might want to watch the loops on zoom for a bit longer to correct me if I'm just seeing things, but I can just make out two short-lived, small, embryonic low level swirls in that whole mess. Perhaps over the next few days the environment improves further and it pops, afterall. The western GOM/BOC still strikes me as having less of a chance in the nearer-term to gel, and convection there has been far less intense, but there is at the very least an obvious surface trof in the area.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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The models that are showing any development in that region are showing purely development, per the cyclone phase space, except for the (which has a known bias with trying to develop false warm core/tropical structures). With a shortwave trough in place now and more of one projected to develop along the east coast into the weekend, it's not likely conditions will be condusive to tropical development except in the very short term. Possible to get a circulation going, sure...but likely non-tropical in nature.
The Gulf of Mexico area is mostly just an area of diffluence aloft leading to convective development. A weak upper low in southern Texas has been the culprit for this, with some weak ridging aloft in its vicinity. It probably has a better environment in the short-term, but no models are showing any surface development and the conditions favoring its existence may well not last much longer.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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felt a little dumb about the comments on how the coastal low at the end of the week would organize. yes, there's a tropical connection, but the u/a charts i looked at later showed it originating from a vigorous low aloft moving off the continent. it gets cut off to a degree and rotates around the base of a mean trough along the east coast, so during this time it could make a brief run at hybridization. there's also a little question about what the surface trough to it's southeast does... probably just end up being a frontal trough on the low.
the 18Z is now showing a precursor to the mid-month tropical low from the western caribbean that we've been talking about. as the coastal low is making its rounds this weekend, a disturbance is shown tracking over the yucatan, festering on the tail of the frontal trough, and then zipping northeast along the baroclinic zone past southern florida. this doesn't appear to be particularly tropical in nature, and anything in that area will have some shear to contend with. but, worth noting that most systems you'll see when el nino's influence is there intensify while moving northeast. the later month system is being shown a bit further east than yesterday and if such were the case it would likely track more for eastern cuba and the bahamas, rather than take aim on florida.
H.29 sent me the link to that graphic he posted the other night. it shows the basin becoming favorable right around/after mid-month. don't really know how reliable it is, but the favorable/unfavorable dipole between the atlantic and pacific is easy to pick out, so i'd reckon it's on to something.
HF 0101z05october
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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I dunno...Looking at the 18Z ...I See a small, yet strong tropical cyclone making landfall in SW Florida (Ft.Myers-Naples) in 7 days. I'm wondering if you are looking at a different grid run version of the or something. The one I'm posting is the vesrion which covers the . Maybe yours is not this run, but I'msharing what I'm seeing. Link: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/index_slp_l_loop.shtml
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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My interest in the region northeast of Cuba (really in an area in and near 27N 67W) continues to percolate and percolate overnight - Yep, keeps using the "UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN NOT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT" disclaimer, but shear in the immediate area had dropped to as low as 30 knots Wednesday, and now appears to me to be under 20 in spots early this predawn. More impressively, *deep* convection really exploded overnight. I won't hold my breath, but I will nonetheless be looking forward to daylight loops for any significant suggestion of a persistent and noteworthy LLC having formed overnight. This region could be closer to popping than we have given it credit for.
The < 20 knots of shear is supported by the most recent CIMSS shear analysis.
CIMSS also supports some 850 hPa vorticity in the region, as well.
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