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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: gale 90L [Re: Hootowl]
      #74580 - Tue May 08 2007 10:26 AM

Navy finally has 90L out.. I think we should finally be able to see the model paths with what the TWC and I are calling teh unnamed Subtropical Storm.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...mp;STYLE=tables
So here's a question for you all.. Will it be named Subtropical Storm Andrea?

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: gale 90L [Re: allan]
      #74582 - Tue May 08 2007 11:24 AM

Holy crud that water vapor loop is impressive!!

I notice NHC put up the tropical disturbance statement on their page.

So what exactly needs to happen for this system to be reclassified from what it is now to a sub-tropical or tropical system? Could someone please educate me and other newbies who aren't exactly sure what the finer points of this are?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.

Edited by madmumbler (Tue May 08 2007 11:34 AM)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: gale 90L [Re: madmumbler]
      #74583 - Tue May 08 2007 11:26 AM

Another question, as of right now (11:18am eastern) on the NHC/NOAA satellite/weather page, the GOES floaters? They have them labeled: Atlantic Floater 1 - non-tropical low, and Atlantic Floater 4 - test floater - subtropical system, but they look like they're on the same feature. Does that mean the NHC is reclassifying this?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
system has every name but subtropical, needs a name [Re: madmumbler]
      #74584 - Tue May 08 2007 11:38 AM

This system has been called everything but Sub-tropical and usually very insistent on the Non-Tropical status however in the tropics which are fluid.. things change and they often change fast.

Are they changing?

Amazing storm to watch on imagery and is predicted to make landfall whether it has a name or doesn't.

Personally I don't think issuing "high wind warnings" is enough.

A hard call for someone.

Thanks for the heads up on the special statement.. I didn't get it in my email yet.
Are they going to wait to send planes in tomorrow..if necessary?

Thanks for some of the great links here, that aviation loop is awesome

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: gale 90L [Re: madmumbler]
      #74585 - Tue May 08 2007 11:39 AM

am i reading this correct? Navy had it at 1243Z as a Invest 90L with 50kts and pressure as 998mb?
(20070508.1243.f15.x.geovis.90LINVEST.50kts-998mb-304N-773W) but the NHC has it as a 1001mb?

**i know these are just estimates***

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue May 08 2007 11:50 AM)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: gale 90L [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #74586 - Tue May 08 2007 12:45 PM

Maybe it's just me, but isn't the system one of the neatest looking storms you've seen in a while? It's a very organized system, just not a tropical one. Though it's certainly trying to get more convection running. So maybe in the next 24 hours it could get classified, but only if it gets some more banding features instead of looking like a strange little whirlpool.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: gale 90L [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #74587 - Tue May 08 2007 12:45 PM

Some decent convective banding now developing around the centre, looking increasingly less like a non-tropical system, and more subtropical or tropical

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: gale 90L [Re: Rich B]
      #74588 - Tue May 08 2007 12:56 PM

it sure looks formidable- although it certainly seems cold-core. This system is still too close to land - nor are the gulf stream water temperatures high enough to warrant a full transition to warm core- or tropical system. This 'unamed' event still looks neat.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: gale 90L [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #74589 - Tue May 08 2007 01:10 PM

seems to me that this morning the western side of the low over the gulf stream is flaring up more storms now. They seem to be much better looking than yesterday. I guess the question of the day, is will these storms wrap around more and make it more sub-tropical... I don't think there is enough time for this thing to trun completely tropical... unless it slows down. But its still going and is causing alot of problems... last night Infared shots showed those two BIG fires over near jacksonville... one in GA, and other just SW of Jacksonville, and the plumes from them were screaming to the SW. THE NEED RAIN!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3935
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: gale 90L [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #74590 - Tue May 08 2007 02:02 PM

Just a note Accuweather's discussion for the 2007 season is out now here: http://wwwa.accuweather.com/pressroom.asp?pr=wx_262.htm

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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: gale 90L [Re: MikeC]
      #74591 - Tue May 08 2007 02:13 PM

Indeed!

Accuweather 07 forcast.Florida in the Bull’s Eye this Hurricane Season


(State College, PA - May 8, 2007) - Accuweather.com Chief Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi and his team expect this season’s hurricanes and tropical storms to pose a far greater threat to lives and property than last year’s, with significantly more storms striking the US.

In the Accuweather.com 2007 Hurricane Season Forecast released today, Bastardi warns that six or seven storms will strike the US coast. This includes the possibility of multiple strikes by the same storm, such as the way Hurricanes Andrew and Katrina – both extreme examples – struck Florida before later striking the US Gulf Coast. The majority of these landfalls are projected for the Gulf Coast from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Cape Hatteras, NC, with the center of the bull’s eye on Florida.

AccuWeather.com forecasts 13 or 14 total storms in the Atlantic Basin, with three or more likely to be major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater.


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: gale 90L [Re: Hurricane29]
      #74592 - Tue May 08 2007 02:31 PM

And when was the last time Bastardi was right??

What do you all think of Henry Margusity on Accuweather...does he know his tropical stuff? I followed his winter forecasts and he seemed to do a good job.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: gale 90L [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #74593 - Tue May 08 2007 02:36 PM

Quote:

But its still going and is causing alot of problems... last night Infared shots showed those two BIG fires over near jacksonville... one in GA, and other just SW of Jacksonville, and the plumes from them were screaming to the SW. THE NEED RAIN!




I'm down in west Charlotte county and since this morning we've had THICK, heavy smoke, mostly from the fires to the north and east, but now the Sarasota fire has REALLY flared up, they just closed down I-75, and the WFLA Tampa channel's heliocopter feed made it onto MSNBC. I'm not kidding, it looks like sea fog out here, it's so bad.

It sucks, because it's cool enough to open the windows (probably the last time until November!) and I can't because of the smoke. You can't even see if it's overcast or not, can't see the sky, but it's so thick like it's overcast.

Anyone know if we'll get that rain down here??

If this thing doesn't bring us rain and we only get wind, it's going to be horrible for the fire situation.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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rookie
Unregistered




Re: gale 90L [Re: MikeC]
      #74594 - Tue May 08 2007 02:36 PM

I feel your pain "Storm Chaser "we have 7 fires here in Ft Myers right now. Drought index is 750 out of 800
Sorry if this is off topic everybody. The winds from the (sub - whatever storm ) are not helping.




http://www.nbc-2.com/WebView/TowerCam.shtml


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: gale 90L [Re: Ed in Va]
      #74595 - Tue May 08 2007 02:38 PM

Quote:

And when was the last time Bastardi was right??





*LOL*

Can one of the mods enter his predictions into the forum guesses? We'll see how he compares. *LOL*

I was under the impression that Accuweather was an oxymoron. *LOL* Wait, let me get my Tarot cards out.... *rotfl*

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: gale 90L [Re: Hurricane29]
      #74596 - Tue May 08 2007 02:41 PM

Quote:

Indeed!

Accuweather 07 forcast.Florida in the Bull’s Eye this Hurricane Season






Quoting a copywrited source directly is generally not a good idea. That said, in the past I feel the members and prognosticators that frequent this board often do a better job than the source of this article. I'll now return to 'lurk mode'. I will say that the current storm off the E coast of Fl/Ga is a bit more persistent than I might have expected and it does *look* impressive and if it was 45 or so days down the road, I'd be worrying about the fact I live in a trailer right about now. But, I don't think this will become tropical because I just don't feel there is enough energy stored in the atmosphere or in the Atlantic in this area to support tropical development. So, as storms go, I think it is "pretty", possibly even dangerous, but not tropical.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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rookie
Unregistered




Re: gale 90L [Re: Unregistered User]
      #74597 - Tue May 08 2007 02:44 PM

Quote:

I feel your pain "Storm Chaser "we have 7 fires here in Ft Myers right now. Drought index is 750 out of 800
Sorry if this is off topic everybody. The winds from the (sub - whatever storm ) are not helping.




http://www.nbc-2.com/WebView/TowerCam.shtml




Sorry I should have read "Storm Hunter"

Keep refreshing the cam it will work.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3935
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Is the Offshore Storm Subtropical? [Re: MikeC]
      #74598 - Tue May 08 2007 02:54 PM

Former NHC Director Max Mayfield is now consulting for some of the local stations around the state and is reported to suggest that the system has a pretty good chance of being named Andrea tonight or tomorrow if it continues to hold together.

The mostly dry system is still aggravating the fire situation in northern Florida/Southern Georgia as well, and other fires across Florida are flaring up also.


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Is the Offshore Storm Subtropical? [Re: MikeC]
      #74599 - Tue May 08 2007 03:19 PM


Storm90

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Edited by danielw (Wed May 09 2007 12:34 AM)


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: Is the Offshore Storm Subtropical? [Re: HCW]
      #74600 - Tue May 08 2007 03:48 PM

Banding features have improved with convection trying to rap around.In my opinion if the trend continues recon is a go tommorow morning.

Edited by danielw (Wed May 09 2007 12:31 AM)


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