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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Is the Offshore Storm Subtropical?
      #74537 - Mon May 07 2007 07:10 AM

May 8th, 10:15AM update
The NHC has released a special statement on the hybrid (warm/cold core) low area, and the NRL is now tracking the system as 90L.

May 8, 9:30 AM Update
The not-tropcal low pressure off the southeastern US coastline is looking a bit more subtropical this morning, with scattered (oddly so) convection closer to the center. So it will likely wind up being a judgment call at the Hurricane Center to determine if this system gets named or not. There is a recon flight scheduled for tomorrow to check it out if it maintains this.

What's going against this low being subtropical is the dry air surrounding the low, and the fact that it has been weakening (or transitioning). It should continue to weaken as it approaches the mainland. Much of the windspeed decrease is more due to the high pressure moving away and the pressure gradient relaxing, however.

It should be slowly weakening as it moves west and south, as it does so the winds will continue to cause issues along the shore and for the fire outbreaks in Florida and Georgia.



Original Article
A few people have been talking about it, but there is a Nor'easter (Cold core, frontal, extratropical low pressure) system that has developed off the coast of North Carolina, combined with an adjacent High Pressure, is causing rather gusty winds across the southeast and Florida.

This system is currently projected to move south and eventually near north Florida near Jacksonville on Wednesday. Some models project it moving back northeast and disappate it , and some have it going into Florida.
As this is not a true tropical system, you won't see charts or graphs, but since it's fairly close to Hurricane season it is worth a mention. People along the coast will feel the winds from the system and the gradient with the high pressure even more.

There is a small chance it may pick up tropical or subtropical characteristics as it goes southward. One of the things that is keeping that from happening is the fact that there is a stationary front along with the storm, although it has become more cut off since this morning. This system isn't likely to do all that much and if it were to get into Florida it would probably fall apart very quickly, but it is still something to watch even as an non-tropical system as things could change.



More to come as needed.

A "wiki" has been integrated into the site, some pages are now modifiable (some only by registered users). The Links , General Info , CFHC">About , Site_usage_tips have been converted. If you have something to add or correct on those pages,, please do so! You can even create new ones for more detail. More integration will be added shortly.

Coastal Storm (90L) Event Related Links
(New Season/Storm: Images may be slow to update or old initially.)

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L

Floater Satellite Image ( ( visLoop) WV loop)
Morehead City, NC Long Range Radar
Wilmington, NC Long Range Radar
Charleston, SC Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

More on the Links page


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Rich B
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Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #74538 - Mon May 07 2007 07:59 AM

There was mention in this mornings TWD that the system may lose its frontal characteristics, and there is some suggestion it is seperating from the frontal zone to its NE as it moves SSW. However, this mention has disappeared from the latest TWD.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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AdrianInFlorida
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Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #74539 - Mon May 07 2007 08:23 AM

We got a pretty good sustained wind (25-30 mph) begining last night around 10PM and continuing on through this morning after the front moved through yesterday.

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HCW
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Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: AdrianInFlorida]
      #74540 - Mon May 07 2007 08:30 AM

Dvorak T Number ST 2.5/2.5 Should see model runs on this system later today

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Seems to be doing very good considering it's over 69 degree water

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NewWatcher
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Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: HCW]
      #74542 - Mon May 07 2007 09:03 AM

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SW N ATLC...
WELL ADVERTISED STORM FORCE SYSTEM DEVELOPING N OF THE AREA WITH
ESTIMATED 998 MB SFC LOW...4 MB DEEPER THEN THE 6 HR FCST OF
THE GFS...NEAR 33.5N73W. BUOY 41001 E OF CAPE HATTERAS REPORTING
36 FT SEAS ATTM. COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW OF THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
CUTTING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH 31N71W TO THE E-CENTRAL FL
COAST NEAR VERO BEACH AND IS USHERING IN GALES OVER THE NRN
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH GALES HAVE YET TO REACH BUOY
41010. SHORT TERM FCST OF THE UKMET WAVE MODEL HANDLING THE
ONSET OF THE HIGHER SEAS BETTER THAN THE SHORT TERM FCST OF THE
NWW3 AND WILL GO WITH THE UKMET WAVE MODEL IN THE FCST. AS FOR
THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM NWP MODELS SPLIT INTO 2 CAMPS WITH
THE NOGAPS/UKMET/ECMWF CARRYING THE LOW WSWWD ACROSS THE SW N
ATLC INTO E-CENTRAL FL BY 00Z THU...WHILE THE NAM/CMC/GFS TURN
THE SYSTEM NNWWD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY 00Z THU. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE LATTER SUITE OF MODELS WHICH ESSENTIALLY MOVES THE
SYSTEM ALONG 31N AND THEREFORE KEEPS THE STRONGEST WINDS N OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS 30M AND NAM 975 MB
WINDS SUGGESTS STORM FORCE WINDS MAY ROTATE AROUND THE SYSTEM
AND BRUSH THE FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE W QUADRANT OF THE
WWD MOVING LOW. BASED ON THIS WILL GO WITH A STORM WARNING FOR
THE FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 30N THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH A STRONG GALE ELSEWHERE N OF 28N W OF 74W. WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASE TUE AS LOW MOVES TOWARD THE SE COAST. SLY GALES
CONTINUE FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA INTO WED AS WELL THEN SUBSIDE
THU INTO FRI. LATTER PORTION OF THE FCST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND
ALL BETS ARE OFF SHOULD THE LOW TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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vineyardsaker
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Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL 29.03N 80.93W
Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #74543 - Mon May 07 2007 09:34 AM

In New Smyrna Beach, south of Daytona, branches have fallen overnight and the wind gusts are still strong. Don't these storms have *any* sense of shame, giving us a foretaste of what is to come almost one month early?!

Oh boy - I sure hope that this early storm (even not a tropical one) will not set a tone for the rest of this summer

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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AdrianInFlorida
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Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #74544 - Mon May 07 2007 10:22 AM

It would just about figure, hurricane shutters installed on the new condo last month, not looking forward to trying them out so soon.
Anyway, this should prove to be an interesting one to follow when it hits the gulfstream.


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: AdrianInFlorida]
      #74546 - Mon May 07 2007 11:01 AM

Quote:

Anyway, this should prove to be an interesting one to follow when it hits the gulfstream.




Water Temps jump up several degrees in that area and, of course, as it moves to the southwest, the water warms quite a bit as well. You east-coasters are in for a rough couple of days!!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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LoisCane
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Is there a chance it could become a subtropical? [Re: HCW]
      #74547 - Mon May 07 2007 11:32 AM

The imagery on the loops is incredible.

So, I am trying to understand the parameters better.

Really winding up, really moving towards Florida.

Thanks

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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StormHound
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Re: Is there a chance it could become a subtropical? [Re: LoisCane]
      #74548 - Mon May 07 2007 12:07 PM

Really impressive circulation, given the conditions. This may not bode well for the rest of the season.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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vineyardsaker
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Re: Is there a chance it could become a subtropical? [Re: LoisCane]
      #74549 - Mon May 07 2007 12:29 PM

Quote:

The imagery on the loops is incredible.




which loop? could you please post a link? thanks.

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Is there a chance it could become a subtropical? [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #74550 - Mon May 07 2007 12:38 PM

Quote:

Quote:

The imagery on the loops is incredible.




which loop? could you please post a link? thanks.




The one I think they are talking about is this:

Tropical Floater 1 (NHC)

This is the GOES floater satellite loop. YOu can find it at the National Hurricane Center website...click 'satellite' then scroll down to the different satellite data links. This storm is on Floater 1. Good Luck!!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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cyclone_head
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Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: NewWatcher]
      #74551 - Mon May 07 2007 01:38 PM

Bouy 41001 info indicates a spike in pressure lowering intensity a bit. I guess this may be typical of this type of subtropical storm.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41001


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cyclone_head
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Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: AdrianInFlorida]
      #74552 - Mon May 07 2007 01:53 PM

Your mention of the Gulf Stream prompted me to research where the GS starts or ends (depending on how you look at it).
It was interesting to me that this system is near an area called the Charleston Bump. This is an area that appears to turn the current Easterly. There is a counterclockwise rotation in that area. Any ideas or theories anyone?

http://www.oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/explorations/03bump/background/geology/media/charlestongyre.html


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: cyclone_head]
      #74553 - Mon May 07 2007 01:56 PM

Quote:

Bouy 41001 info indicates a spike in pressure lowering intensity a bit. I guess this may be typical of this type of subtropical storm.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41001




Actually the system should be moving away from the buoy. The low is drifting to the SW, maybe a little more west now of south...(rapid scan floater is on the system) If you go back and look at the history at the buoy, see that winds got up to 54kts at midnight (gust to 70kts) and about the same time as the lowest pressure reading... 29.64. but as the system moves away... would see the pressure rise and winds relax. Just kinda crazy to see 40ft sea's that close to the SE at this time of the year!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon May 07 2007 01:58 PM)


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cyclone_head
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Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #74554 - Mon May 07 2007 02:12 PM

Good point. Too bad we can't see data from Bouy 41002.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: cyclone_head]
      #74555 - Mon May 07 2007 02:23 PM

yeah, 41002 went adrift back in Feb. Don't know when it will return, but bet it will be before June 1st!
This Water Vapor imagery is very nice. Look at the all that dry air and that flow around the system, don't get to see this to often.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: cyclone_head]
      #74556 - Mon May 07 2007 02:30 PM

Quote:

Good point. Too bad we can't see data from Bouy 41002.




That WOULD be nice...wonder when that one gets replaced...anyhow, looking at the water temp data from a few of these buoys in the direction that the storm seems to be heading....
41001 - east of Cape Hatteras - 67.1
51025 - due west of 41001 near shore - 64.4
41036 - southwest along coast near Wilmington- 68.0
41013 - southwest on coast near Myrtle Beach - 68.7
41004 - near coast of Charleston - 69.4
41008 - just east of Savannah - 70.5
41012 - just east of Jacksonville - 73.0
41010 - about 200m east of Cape Canaveral - 75.0
41009 - just off of Cape Canaveral - 75.2
looks like the water may cool just slightly as it moves sw, then will warm up quite a bit if it continues to the south or sw......gotta look at the model runs before my 7th period class gets here:-)

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Hootowl
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Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #74557 - Mon May 07 2007 02:32 PM

Quote:

yeah, 41002 went adrift back in Feb. Don't know when it will return, but bet it will be before June 1st!
This Water Vapor imagery is very nice. Look at the all that dry air and that flow around the system, don't get to see this to often.




Wow - that water vapor is awesome!

I wonder if all that dry air will wrap up and choke it off?


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LoisCane
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two loops [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #74558 - Mon May 07 2007 03:21 PM

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeir3.html

http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/loops/realtime/atlwv_loope.html

So many great loops to choose from ... really wrapped up.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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vineyardsaker
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Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: Hootowl]
      #74559 - Mon May 07 2007 05:18 PM

Quote:


Wow - that water vapor is awesome!





amazing pic indeed.

Is there any website which would give stormtrack & landfall projections for laymen like me who cannot figure that out on their own?

When this one hits Florida, what kind of action should we expect? Like a regular (sub-hurricane) named storm?

Thanks/

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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allan
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Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #74560 - Mon May 07 2007 05:27 PM

Looks like the dry air is either weakening or just not reaching the center anymore.. now is the time to watch for "possible" tropical characteristics as conditions appear favorable right now.. very slight chance but I hope.. not only would it be a good record storm, but it would help me over here on the fire situation. I live in Flagler County and I hear evacuations may be going on.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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HanKFranK
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gale 90L [Re: allan]
      #74561 - Mon May 07 2007 06:03 PM

just gonna call it that since ssd has tagged it as such. i can't access fnmoc, so don't know if those guys have an invest up on it. would have the same number anyway.
right now the low appears much better defined than earlier today, a bit more secluded from the frontal structure, but still an extratropical frontal low. there is spotty convection near the secluding portion. still a big sweep of mid-level dry air and cold air stratocumulus involved in the center. what i'm betting is that is the center gets closer to the gulfstream SSTs (running in the upper 70s) and secludes a bit more, enough deep convection will form to get the NHC started on it. at least everybody here will be hollering about it. whatever they choose to go with, i'm sure plenty of folks will gripe about their call on its classification--as usual.
deep layer lows this strong over borderline tropical SSTs at the fringes of the season develop often enough for this big boy to merit attention. the fact that it's blowing aplenty in coastal waters and kicking the surf around is doing that all by itself. something i was a little nervous about personally was what the wildfires in south georgia would do under the conditions west of the gale. judging from the smoke plume it looks like the one near racepond, georgia really took off today. fire danger is pretty serious for today and tomorrow at least.
HF 2257z07may


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ChessieStorm
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Re: gale 90L [Re: HanKFranK]
      #74562 - Mon May 07 2007 06:38 PM

Two points:
1. Dennis Philips is kind of hoping, based on the Titan model they use, that this thing crosses Florida and goes into the GOM to increase rain chances for us later in the week. We'll see.

2. Radar data along with Sat. data is picking up on the two plums of smoke (one in Georgia and one in northern Florida). No doubt being fueled by the dry conditions and windy conditions.


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Hugh
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Re: gale 90L [Re: ChessieStorm]
      #74563 - Mon May 07 2007 08:21 PM

I'm either getting extremely good at forecasting offseason tropical development, or very paranoid. I looked at the radar online last night/early this morning (can't remember whether it was before I went to bed or when I got up) and thought "uh, that looks like a tropical low". Tonight, I read a headline on Drudge that links to an article saying it could move into the GOM and develop into a tropical low.

I'm not a pro when it comes to tropical systems, and I never follow Nor'easters - is there any historical precidence for a cold-core storm that has been referred to as a Nor'easter in May to move southwest across Florida like some of the models are forecasting for this thing? Isn't that what the Stom of the Century did? We drove through some nasty weather yesterday coming back from Biloxi (obviously unrelated to this thing), which has temporarily provided some relief for the drought. I was foolishly hoping for a repeat of the 2006 Atlantic season.

Edit: HankFrank... SSD page now shows "Test Floater - Subtropical System", but I don't see a "Gale 90L" referenced anywhere. NRL has no floaters for the Atlantic basin (yet anyway).

Edited by Hugh (Mon May 07 2007 08:31 PM)


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dem05
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Re: gale 90L [Re: Hugh]
      #74564 - Mon May 07 2007 09:26 PM

Well, if anyone is itchy to throw down some plots on a tracking map, this one is a bit more worthy of May mongering this evening. I really don't think there is much doubt that this is removing itself from the fronts this evening based on satellite representation. I find it noteworthy that the thunderstorms have been diminishing on the perifery while the cloud tops are gradually growing taller around center over the last few hours. This system is gradually consolidating into a more sub-tropical looking system. Also, banding type features have also improved. On final thoughts, I'd be surprised to see very intense "high altitude" thunderstorms develop around this system. In my experince of tracking subtropical systems and/or tropicalcyclones that develop under these circumstances, they usually have shallow thunderstorm activity. This has been an interesting May.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: gale 90L [Re: Hugh]
      #74565 - Mon May 07 2007 09:32 PM

just a note about fires... there were two widefires that popped up today in NW Florida.. one near Freeport, FL.. and one on Panama City Beach, the winds may them spread like crazy... one over 1,000 acres in a few hours. We need this low to get over to the coast and help throw in some mositure, but i don't think its going to survive that long... if the gulf stream was a little bit warmer up the florida/Ga/SC... i be more hopeful... one thing is for sure... its going to be windy along the SE for another few days. I like to see the 00Z runs tonight...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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danielwAdministrator
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Re: gale 90L [Re: dem05]
      #74566 - Mon May 07 2007 09:34 PM

Excerpt from the afternoon Marine Wx Discussion for the NW Atlantic.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EDT MON 7 MAY 2007 (edited~danielw)

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

THE MAJOR STORM NEAR THE SE CORNER OF THE NT2 WTRS IS BCMG VERT STACKED AND BASED ON DVLPMT OF CNVTN ARND W SIDE AND CONFERRING WITH HPC AGREE ON HAVING THIS LOW MAINTAIN CURRENT STRENGTH THRU 36 HR AS IT MOVS SW THEN DRFTS W JUST S OF 31N TOWARD GLF STRM...RATHER THAN SLOWLY FILLING IT AS IN GFS AND OTHER MDLS.
WILL KEEP INTSTY 6-8 MB DEEPER THAN GFS THRU TUE AND PERHAPS SVRL MB THRFTR AND MAY REQUIRE SLGT UPWARD ADJ OF GFS WNDS. GFS AND OTHER MDLS EXCP 00Z UKMET DO NOT INITIALIZE LOW DEEP ENUF.
BASICALLY GOING WITH GFS TRACK WHICH AGREES WELL WITH ECMWF/UKMET 00Z RUNS...TAKING LOW INTO N FL THU WITH SLOW FILLING AFT TUE BUT NOT AS FAST FILLING AS IN GFS...MORE LIKE ECMWF STRENGTH BY THU. THERE IT STALLS AND WKNS THRU SAT.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WNM/MIMATN


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obxadventurers
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Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #74567 - Mon May 07 2007 09:37 PM Attachment (284 downloads)

Live from the Outer Banks!!!! Wild!!! Ya need to be here!!! I came to Ocracoke for a leisurely vacation and found a freakin' storm instead!!! The bar is dropping and the water is risin' . Just another n'oreaster...live it or live with it! At least, that's what they keep tellin' me! We've chosen to live it. It's cold...it's windy. Many people stranded becasue the ferry systems have been suspended until the Coast Guard can clear passage of channels. Temps in the 50's. Highway 12 is washed out.
More to follow...if God is willing.

Joyce Marie Taylor-Author & Poet
www.joycemarietaylor.com

Edited by danielw (Mon May 07 2007 10:08 PM)


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dem05
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Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: obxadventurers]
      #74568 - Mon May 07 2007 10:23 PM

NWS Frontal observations are now showing that the front has seperated from the core of our low that we are watching.

GoTo: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-ir2.html

Be Sure To Click "NWS Fronts" On The Menu Above The Loop

P.S. Also note that the remaining front on the perimiter is occluded

Edited by dem05 (Mon May 07 2007 10:25 PM)


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ChessieStorm
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Re: gale 90L [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #74569 - Mon May 07 2007 10:31 PM

Quote:

just a note about fires... there were two widefires that popped up today in NW Florida.. one near Freeport, FL.. and one on Panama City Beach, the winds may them spread like crazy... one over 1,000 acres in a few hours. We need this low to get over to the coast and help throw in some mositure, but i don't think its going to survive that long... if the gulf stream was a little bit warmer up the florida/Ga/SC... i be more hopeful... one thing is for sure... its going to be windy along the SE for another few days. I like to see the 00Z runs tonight...




I was listening to a radio station out of Ocala tonight and they were talking about evacuations in those areas due to the fires and rapid spread of them.

So from that standpoint let this thing get over there and provide some rain for those folks.


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HCW
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Re: gale 90L [Re: ChessieStorm]
      #74570 - Mon May 07 2007 10:45 PM

We need this thing to hurry up and move inland . We have 2 fires now and the one around Panama City has already burned over 1k acers . Wind is not what we need since we are in the middle of a drought . I have read some post on other message boards and was wondering if there is any chance that this thing gets into the GOM and brings us a good soaking .

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Storm Hunter
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Re: gale 90L [Re: HCW]
      #74571 - Mon May 07 2007 10:52 PM

The one on Panama City Beach, i was out there just right after it started to flare up... Talk about some flames... 50ft high... it was a sight. And that North, DRY wind was fuel for trouble! I just saw that the latest SAT Dvorak number.. still holding at 2.5

07/2345 UTC 30.9N 74.7W ST2.5/2.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

I am curious what this low will do when it gets closer to the coast/gulf stream.. Wonder if there will be any storms flare up on the west side... There is so much dry air there, its amazing its appears to me that it might be getting better looking on sats. Haven't seen any invest on it from the NAVY... i would think that NOAA would send a flight out there tomorrow or wednesday, maybe as a test flight or so.... get some good data before the season really gets agoing, and its so close to land.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon May 07 2007 10:54 PM)


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PutnamGator
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Re: gale 90L [Re: HCW]
      #74572 - Mon May 07 2007 10:57 PM

There are also fires very close to me in Bradford and Alachua Counties. They started today, both have burned over 2500 acres each, and they expect them to merge overnight. The wind from this thing definitely is not helping us here.

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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: gale 90L [Re: PutnamGator]
      #74573 - Mon May 07 2007 11:34 PM

Quote:

There are also fires very close to me in Bradford and Alachua Counties. They started today, both have burned over 2500 acres each, and they expect them to merge overnight. The wind from this thing definitely is not helping us here.



Not to get off the topic, but if you haven't found this site, it is a cool place to follow fires and their smoke trails once you figure out how to use it....
SSD Fire Detection Program
Try it!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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HanKFranK
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Re: gale 90L [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #74575 - Tue May 08 2007 12:12 AM

more globals showing the thing secluding and developing a warm vertical profile. it's fitting the earlier phase space diagrams that showed it going symmetric warm core. there's a bit more convection, mostly in a loose semicircle maybe 75-150 miles north and west of the center, sporadic elsewhere.
sucker will be going over near threshold SSTs tomorrow. with the existing cold pool aloft it isn't very hard to see this thing transitioning. i don't know how far it will make it towards becoming subtropical, but if the low starts working like a semi-tropical system and tapping non-baroclinic energy sources, all bets are off on the models showing it washing out wed-thu.
HF 0506z08may


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Hugh
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Re: gale 90L [Re: HanKFranK]
      #74576 - Tue May 08 2007 08:05 AM

Quote:

more globals showing the thing secluding and developing a warm vertical profile. it's fitting the earlier phase space diagrams that showed it going symmetric warm core. there's a bit more convection, mostly in a loose semicircle maybe 75-150 miles north and west of the center, sporadic elsewhere.
sucker will be going over near threshold SSTs tomorrow. with the existing cold pool aloft it isn't very hard to see this thing transitioning. i don't know how far it will make it towards becoming subtropical, but if the low starts working like a semi-tropical system and tapping non-baroclinic energy sources, all bets are off on the models showing it washing out wed-thu.
HF 0506z08may




I'm glad I'm not the new director of the NHC, because this thing is looking more and more like a duck the closer it gets to the coast. Don't know what the wind field looks like currently, but the AVN loop makes it a tough call I imagine. It looks to me like NHC should pull the trigger today, but with the system moving rapidly toward Jacksonville, I'm betting they won't pulled it for about 7 months (in the post-season analysis). Fortunately it does not look to be moving as far southward as it once was so I don't know if it will be able to get into the GOM.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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allan
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Re: gale 90L [Re: Hugh]
      #74577 - Tue May 08 2007 09:14 AM

NHC is'nt paying attention to it right now but The Weather Channel now calls it a Subtropical Storm and said that there are big changes with it coming. I say it should be good enough to be called Andrea.Don't understand why the Navy has not been paying attention to this.. hopefully we wont have a confusing year like 2006. Andrea by tonight?? Anyone? Feedback would be cool.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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rookie
Unregistered




Re: gale 90L [Re: allan]
      #74578 - Tue May 08 2007 09:30 AM


Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 081046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W 2N51W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG
ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
14W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ACTIVITY IS FROM 4S-3N
BETWEEN 27W-42W.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN OCCLUDED 1001 MB SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 76.5W AT
08/0900 UTC...OR ABOUT 250NM E OF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA
BORDER...MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. A STORM WARNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS IN AFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE AREA N OF 29N W
OF 76W BUT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX TO GALE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WAS VERIFIED BY LAST EVENINGS QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH
SHOWED 50-60 KT WINDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THESE WINDS ARE
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT FOR THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND THE BAHAMAS. BUOY 41010 HAS BEEN
REPORTING 20-25 FT SEAS AT 16 SEC OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE REGIONAL WW3 MODEL NOW SEEMS ON TRACK WITH THE HEIGHTS BUT
CONTINUES TO UNDERESTIMATE THE PERIODS WHICH WILL FURTHER ADD TO
THE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS UPON SHOALING. LIGHTNING DATA HAS BEEN
DEPICTING SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE MODERATE CONVECTION SEEN WITHIN
150NM N AND W OF THE CENTER. THE MAIN THREAT...HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGH WINDS AND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO CONTINUE MOVING THE LOW
TOWARDS NORTH FLORIDA/GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE
SLOWLY WEAKENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS
REGARDING EXPECTED OFFSHORE AND COASTAL IMPACTS.


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Hootowl
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Re: gale 90L [Re: allan]
      #74579 - Tue May 08 2007 09:38 AM

May have recon tomorrow.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 081330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 08 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z 10/1100Z MAY 2007
WSPOD NUMBER.....07-001

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE AREA OFF SOUTH CAROLINA
A. 09/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 09/0930Z
D. 31.8N 79.4W
E. 09/1100Z-09/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE
WVW


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allan
Weather Master


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Re: gale 90L [Re: Hootowl]
      #74580 - Tue May 08 2007 10:26 AM

Navy finally has 90L out.. I think we should finally be able to see the model paths with what the TWC and I are calling teh unnamed Subtropical Storm.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...mp;STYLE=tables
So here's a question for you all.. Will it be named Subtropical Storm Andrea?

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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madmumbler
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Re: gale 90L [Re: allan]
      #74582 - Tue May 08 2007 11:24 AM

Holy crud that water vapor loop is impressive!!

I notice NHC put up the tropical disturbance statement on their page.

So what exactly needs to happen for this system to be reclassified from what it is now to a sub-tropical or tropical system? Could someone please educate me and other newbies who aren't exactly sure what the finer points of this are?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.

Edited by madmumbler (Tue May 08 2007 11:34 AM)


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madmumbler
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Re: gale 90L [Re: madmumbler]
      #74583 - Tue May 08 2007 11:26 AM

Another question, as of right now (11:18am eastern) on the NHC/NOAA satellite/weather page, the GOES floaters? They have them labeled: Atlantic Floater 1 - non-tropical low, and Atlantic Floater 4 - test floater - subtropical system, but they look like they're on the same feature. Does that mean the NHC is reclassifying this?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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LoisCane
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system has every name but subtropical, needs a name [Re: madmumbler]
      #74584 - Tue May 08 2007 11:38 AM

This system has been called everything but Sub-tropical and usually very insistent on the Non-Tropical status however in the tropics which are fluid.. things change and they often change fast.

Are they changing?

Amazing storm to watch on imagery and is predicted to make landfall whether it has a name or doesn't.

Personally I don't think issuing "high wind warnings" is enough.

A hard call for someone.

Thanks for the heads up on the special statement.. I didn't get it in my email yet.
Are they going to wait to send planes in tomorrow..if necessary?

Thanks for some of the great links here, that aviation loop is awesome

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Storm Hunter
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Re: gale 90L [Re: madmumbler]
      #74585 - Tue May 08 2007 11:39 AM

am i reading this correct? Navy had it at 1243Z as a Invest 90L with 50kts and pressure as 998mb?
(20070508.1243.f15.x.geovis.90LINVEST.50kts-998mb-304N-773W) but the NHC has it as a 1001mb?

**i know these are just estimates***

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue May 08 2007 11:50 AM)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


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Re: gale 90L [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #74586 - Tue May 08 2007 12:45 PM

Maybe it's just me, but isn't the system one of the neatest looking storms you've seen in a while? It's a very organized system, just not a tropical one. Though it's certainly trying to get more convection running. So maybe in the next 24 hours it could get classified, but only if it gets some more banding features instead of looking like a strange little whirlpool.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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Rich B
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Re: gale 90L [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #74587 - Tue May 08 2007 12:45 PM

Some decent convective banding now developing around the centre, looking increasingly less like a non-tropical system, and more subtropical or tropical

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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Re: gale 90L [Re: Rich B]
      #74588 - Tue May 08 2007 12:56 PM

it sure looks formidable- although it certainly seems cold-core. This system is still too close to land - nor are the gulf stream water temperatures high enough to warrant a full transition to warm core- or tropical system. This 'unamed' event still looks neat.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Storm Hunter
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Re: gale 90L [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #74589 - Tue May 08 2007 01:10 PM

seems to me that this morning the western side of the low over the gulf stream is flaring up more storms now. They seem to be much better looking than yesterday. I guess the question of the day, is will these storms wrap around more and make it more sub-tropical... I don't think there is enough time for this thing to trun completely tropical... unless it slows down. But its still going and is causing alot of problems... last night Infared shots showed those two BIG fires over near jacksonville... one in GA, and other just SW of Jacksonville, and the plumes from them were screaming to the SW. THE NEED RAIN!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: gale 90L [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #74590 - Tue May 08 2007 02:02 PM

Just a note Accuweather's discussion for the 2007 season is out now here: http://wwwa.accuweather.com/pressroom.asp?pr=wx_262.htm

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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


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Re: gale 90L [Re: MikeC]
      #74591 - Tue May 08 2007 02:13 PM

Indeed!

Accuweather 07 forcast.Florida in the Bull’s Eye this Hurricane Season


(State College, PA - May 8, 2007) - Accuweather.com Chief Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi and his team expect this season’s hurricanes and tropical storms to pose a far greater threat to lives and property than last year’s, with significantly more storms striking the US.

In the Accuweather.com 2007 Hurricane Season Forecast released today, Bastardi warns that six or seven storms will strike the US coast. This includes the possibility of multiple strikes by the same storm, such as the way Hurricanes Andrew and Katrina – both extreme examples – struck Florida before later striking the US Gulf Coast. The majority of these landfalls are projected for the Gulf Coast from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Cape Hatteras, NC, with the center of the bull’s eye on Florida.

AccuWeather.com forecasts 13 or 14 total storms in the Atlantic Basin, with three or more likely to be major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater.


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


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Re: gale 90L [Re: Hurricane29]
      #74592 - Tue May 08 2007 02:31 PM

And when was the last time Bastardi was right??

What do you all think of Henry Margusity on Accuweather...does he know his tropical stuff? I followed his winter forecasts and he seemed to do a good job.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


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Re: gale 90L [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #74593 - Tue May 08 2007 02:36 PM

Quote:

But its still going and is causing alot of problems... last night Infared shots showed those two BIG fires over near jacksonville... one in GA, and other just SW of Jacksonville, and the plumes from them were screaming to the SW. THE NEED RAIN!




I'm down in west Charlotte county and since this morning we've had THICK, heavy smoke, mostly from the fires to the north and east, but now the Sarasota fire has REALLY flared up, they just closed down I-75, and the WFLA Tampa channel's heliocopter feed made it onto MSNBC. I'm not kidding, it looks like sea fog out here, it's so bad.

It sucks, because it's cool enough to open the windows (probably the last time until November!) and I can't because of the smoke. You can't even see if it's overcast or not, can't see the sky, but it's so thick like it's overcast.

Anyone know if we'll get that rain down here??

If this thing doesn't bring us rain and we only get wind, it's going to be horrible for the fire situation.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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rookie
Unregistered




Re: gale 90L [Re: MikeC]
      #74594 - Tue May 08 2007 02:36 PM

I feel your pain "Storm Chaser "we have 7 fires here in Ft Myers right now. Drought index is 750 out of 800
Sorry if this is off topic everybody. The winds from the (sub - whatever storm ) are not helping.




http://www.nbc-2.com/WebView/TowerCam.shtml


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


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Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: gale 90L [Re: Ed in Va]
      #74595 - Tue May 08 2007 02:38 PM

Quote:

And when was the last time Bastardi was right??





*LOL*

Can one of the mods enter his predictions into the forum guesses? We'll see how he compares. *LOL*

I was under the impression that Accuweather was an oxymoron. *LOL* Wait, let me get my Tarot cards out.... *rotfl*

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Ricreig
User


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Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: gale 90L [Re: Hurricane29]
      #74596 - Tue May 08 2007 02:41 PM

Quote:

Indeed!

Accuweather 07 forcast.Florida in the Bull’s Eye this Hurricane Season






Quoting a copywrited source directly is generally not a good idea. That said, in the past I feel the members and prognosticators that frequent this board often do a better job than the source of this article. I'll now return to 'lurk mode'. I will say that the current storm off the E coast of Fl/Ga is a bit more persistent than I might have expected and it does *look* impressive and if it was 45 or so days down the road, I'd be worrying about the fact I live in a trailer right about now. But, I don't think this will become tropical because I just don't feel there is enough energy stored in the atmosphere or in the Atlantic in this area to support tropical development. So, as storms go, I think it is "pretty", possibly even dangerous, but not tropical.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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rookie
Unregistered




Re: gale 90L [Re: Unregistered User]
      #74597 - Tue May 08 2007 02:44 PM

Quote:

I feel your pain "Storm Chaser "we have 7 fires here in Ft Myers right now. Drought index is 750 out of 800
Sorry if this is off topic everybody. The winds from the (sub - whatever storm ) are not helping.




http://www.nbc-2.com/WebView/TowerCam.shtml




Sorry I should have read "Storm Hunter"

Keep refreshing the cam it will work.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Is the Offshore Storm Subtropical? [Re: MikeC]
      #74598 - Tue May 08 2007 02:54 PM

Former NHC Director Max Mayfield is now consulting for some of the local stations around the state and is reported to suggest that the system has a pretty good chance of being named Andrea tonight or tomorrow if it continues to hold together.

The mostly dry system is still aggravating the fire situation in northern Florida/Southern Georgia as well, and other fires across Florida are flaring up also.


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HCW
Storm Tracker


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Re: Is the Offshore Storm Subtropical? [Re: MikeC]
      #74599 - Tue May 08 2007 03:19 PM


Storm90

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Edited by danielw (Wed May 09 2007 12:34 AM)


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Hurricane29
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Re: Is the Offshore Storm Subtropical? [Re: HCW]
      #74600 - Tue May 08 2007 03:48 PM

Banding features have improved with convection trying to rap around.In my opinion if the trend continues recon is a go tommorow morning.

Edited by danielw (Wed May 09 2007 12:31 AM)


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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Is the Offshore Storm Subtropical? [Re: Hurricane29]
      #74601 - Tue May 08 2007 04:01 PM

Indeed the banding features have--but it's still not the amount, or the organization of convection I'd like to see with a tropical--or subtropical--storm.

Still think we just need to monitor this one a little while longer before we "pull the trigger."


WW-911


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hurricaneguy
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Re: Is the Offshore Storm Subtropical? [Re: Hurricane29]
      #74602 - Tue May 08 2007 04:02 PM Attachment (288 downloads)

Couldn't agree more. I strongly feel if this system holds together like it is now that we will have Andrea by tomorrow. Several meteorologists here at the NWC all agree this is a strong scenario. This is indeed an interesting start to the 2007. The latest SST from LSU is attached.

--------------------


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hurricaneguy
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Re: Is the Offshore Storm Subtropical? [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #74603 - Tue May 08 2007 04:08 PM

000
WONT41 KNHC 082003
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOW IS PRODUCING
GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND GEORGIA. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS
MORNING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE LOW IS
BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING...IF
NECESSARY.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER KNABB

--------------------


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LoisCane
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so i guess we sit and wait [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #74604 - Tue May 08 2007 04:26 PM

thanks for the heads up and seems for now it's a waiting game.

great pic of john hope, thanks hurricaneguy

watching it on invest and have seen models... pretty amazing as it's the beginning of may

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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cieldumort
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Re: so i guess we sit and wait [Re: LoisCane]
      #74605 - Tue May 08 2007 04:33 PM

Hmm IMHO What we have out there is now already a subtropical storm, but not yet named, and may not be until post-season reanalysis. But... thinking, as others have opined, that if it holds at it's current intensity and structure - or, improves some more - not only is recon a sure bet, but so would be the naming, by noon Wednesday. For whatever it's worth, the system meets the basic definition of a subtropical storm already. Andrea works for me!

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madmumbler
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Re: so i guess we sit and wait [Re: cieldumort]
      #74606 - Tue May 08 2007 04:41 PM

Well, at least our westerly sea breeze finally kicked up -- I can actually SEE clear, blue skies outside without a hint of smoke.

What do the sea breezes do to a system like this? Will it just barrel through them, do they steer it, or do nothing, etc.?

And any ideas what to expect if this gets into the GOM?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: so i guess we sit and wait [Re: cieldumort]
      #74607 - Tue May 08 2007 04:43 PM

Looking at Savannah radar, there is some SOLID rain bands headed into there in the next 6 hours or so and they are growing as they near the coast.....looks MUCH more impressive than it did this morning. This storm seems to be ramping up as far as the rain and banding go. I just hope the ridge in that high pushes it far enough south to bring solid moisture into central florida. The smoke is choking me!! it may not get the NAME of a tropical system, but those along the coast in its immediate past better make the same preparations as if there was a strong TS headed their way....ESPECIALLY if they are in mobiles!!

--------------------
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Ricreig
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Re: so i guess we sit and wait [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #74608 - Tue May 08 2007 04:57 PM

Quote:

better make the same preparations as if there was a strong TS headed their way....ESPECIALLY if they are in mobiles!!




That is actually some good advice. I do not really believe there is a lot of merit is "arguing" about whether or not this is or is not tropical, subtropical or just a 'storm', the fact remains that it *is* a storm and has the potential to cause damage to the unprepared. Those along the coast, especially, should always take storms, no matter what their classifications or names or lack thereof, seriously and prepare as if it was a tropical cyclone capable of damaging their property or causing them or their family harm.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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vineyardsaker
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could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: Ricreig]
      #74609 - Tue May 08 2007 05:09 PM

I am looking out of the window on the Turnbull Bay Creek (in New Smyrna Beach, south of Daytona) and the tide is higher than it has been in many months. We had, alas, almost no rain in Volusia County (all the wet stuff passed north, south and southwest of us) and now this amazing tide (at least a full foot higher than usual). Could there be a storm surge effect from this system?

Current conditions here are very windy but sunny. Great - cool weather. I wish I was sailing...

Yesterday night the entire county was stinking of smoke because of the many brush fires here. Can we hope for some good rain from this system?

How much of a storm should we prepare for?

Cheers,

VS

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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Ricreig
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Re: could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #74610 - Tue May 08 2007 05:17 PM

Quote:

How much of a storm should we prepare for?


Far be it for me to provide that kind of advice....but.... I rather doubt your location is in real danger other than more of what you are seeing now. That said, you would be prudent to keep touch with your local official weather sources, and of course, keep your eye on the information that can be gleaned through this board as well. Obviously, your first source is the NHC. The operative word is 'prepared', not just for this storm, for all of them.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Rich B
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Re: could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: Ricreig]
      #74611 - Tue May 08 2007 05:32 PM

A quick look at the latest visible imagery shows the system looks to be getting better organised with increasing convection now popping up, and wrapping closer to the centre. Could we see Andrea before recon goes out??

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #74612 - Tue May 08 2007 06:03 PM

Quote:

I am looking out of the window on the Turnbull Bay Creek (in New Smyrna Beach, south of Daytona) and the tide is higher than it has been in many months. We had, alas, almost no rain in Volusia County (all the wet stuff passed north, south and southwest of us) and now this amazing tide (at least a full foot higher than usual). Could there be a storm surge effect from this system?

Current conditions here are very windy but sunny. Great - cool weather. I wish I was sailing...

Yesterday night the entire county was stinking of smoke because of the many brush fires here. Can we hope for some good rain from this system?

How much of a storm should we prepare for?

Cheers,

VS



on the question of a storm surge....that may not be what to worry about, but I just saw a news reports (Channel 13 in Tampa) of massive beach erosion all the way down in Jupiter which is northern Palm Beach county. They showed a boat house leaning toward the water and reported 100 feet of beach lost in some places. If you are on the coast, keep an eye on the sand under your house and the surf working its way toward you.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


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Re: could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: Ricreig]
      #74613 - Tue May 08 2007 06:05 PM

Quote:

Quote:

How much of a storm should we prepare for?


Far be it for me to provide that kind of advice....but.... I rather doubt your location is in real danger other than more of what you are seeing now.




Oh, I was not worried about any danger from this one, rather I was *hopeful* that this system would deliver plenty of water on Volusia county, but in this case should I worry about a possible storm surge effect from combined rainfall and a surge?

Could it be that I am already observing a surge?

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


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Re: could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #74614 - Tue May 08 2007 06:11 PM

Quote:


If you are on the coast, keep an eye on the sand under your house and the surf working its way toward you.




no, I will be fine from any beach erosion, we are off the bay which itself is off the Intercoastal River. But flooding is a real possibility.

However, the rest of New Smyrna is in huge danger I suppose, as our beachside has yet to recover from the battering it took from a chunk of Ivan in 2004 which broke of and sent huge waves which really messed up our beaches. For a while it looked like New Smyrna Beach would be renamed New Smyrna Shores, but then we got some of it back, but there is still plenty of sand missing.

When I arrived in New Smyrna, in 2002, it had what I thought were the most beautiful beaches on the entire Atlantic coast of Florida, but now they have shrunk by a lot. I dread to think at what our beaches will look like if we get even more erosion.

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #74615 - Tue May 08 2007 06:19 PM

For New Smyrna, I wouldn't THINK that you would get any major storm surge with the storm in this location. In fact, if it continues westward, you may begin to see the water recede a bit when the wind shifts to the west. The beaches are gonna still get battered by pretty good waves, but storm surge is usually worst on the north and northwest side of a westward moving storm.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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nc_wx_watcher
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Re: could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #74616 - Tue May 08 2007 06:43 PM

Has the "Low" shifted track? is it moving North East now or what direction is it going in?

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Hugh
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Re: could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: nc_wx_watcher]
      #74618 - Tue May 08 2007 06:45 PM

Quote:

Has the "Low" shifted track? is it moving North East now or what direction is it going in?




Looks like it's moving due northwest to me.

Edit: Looks now like the image just jumped from one frame to the next. The actual LLC is still moving due west.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Tue May 08 2007 07:06 PM)


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nc_wx_watcher
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Re: could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: Hugh]
      #74620 - Tue May 08 2007 09:06 PM

Wanted to check in before i hit the sack so is our low maintaining strength, weakening, or getting stronger? What's going on out there with it and why?



Edited by MikeC (Tue May 08 2007 09:18 PM)


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cieldumort
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Re: could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: nc_wx_watcher]
      #74621 - Tue May 08 2007 09:11 PM

GFDL has been run on the system, and takes it to high-end TS/ virtually minimal hurricane strength before making landfall and weakening. GFDL is often a bit generous with new systems, so I would not put all my eggs in that basket, but it does suggest that at least some potential for an intensifying storm does exist. Really, this *is* already a subtropical storm by all reasonable academic measures. Whether NHC names it or not, is another story. Perhaps they only add it post-season. My own opinion is naming now does a greater public service. Regardless of what it's called or not called, current effects are very similar to an offshore TS coming onshore, but perhaps not quite as wet, and without as much risk of serious damage.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: nc_wx_watcher]
      #74624 - Tue May 08 2007 09:23 PM

The system is getting a bit better organized, but there still lacks any real convection around the center. It's just going to run out of time I think, before hitting land in Georgia. So Andrea or not really depends on what state the system is in next morning.

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HanKFranK
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subtropical storm andrea [Re: cieldumort]
      #74625 - Tue May 08 2007 09:58 PM

that's probably what is out there right now, like mr. deathsky says. my prediction about the NHC being first dismissive and then speculative about its possible transition for a while is right so far. they're obviously interested in it, and it fits enough of the subtropical cyclone criteria (in fact it's a poster child for why the term exists) that everybody is wondering why they don't go ahead and name it. the NHC response is the most predictable thing when we have a really good hybrid system like this... it fits the criteria listed in all but the most semantically exclusive way, but that just happens to be the one they use. i do wonder why the NHC bothers with the term subtropical cyclone since they apply it so narrowly that it's irrelevant.
the subtropical system does have deeper convection than earlier today, but not by much. it doesn't seem to be quite there yet, for the NHC to give in. if it blew some really deep convection the argument would suddenly become that it's a tropical storm, since recon would then of course find a more pronounced warm core aloft. what happens probably also depends somewhat on what forecaster is in charge. i bet ya that beven is all twitchy over this thing, for instance. unlike most of the subtropical candidates we fuss over, this one is actually going to thump the coast some... and the NHC will have to listen to a lot more people than usual wonder aloud why they mince words over these things every time.
anyhow, we might have us a subtropical storm tomorrow or we might not. if we don't there's a good chance it will end up being subtropical storm one, in a post-analysis. either way it's essentially like a dry, slow moving tropical storm buffeting the coast. better news out of this thing is that it's starting to push showers on shore, which should help some with the fires. might end up being a boon. the wind, on the other hand, could make it not worth the benefit.
HF 0258z09may

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue May 08 2007 09:59 PM)


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dem05
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Re: could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: MikeC]
      #74626 - Tue May 08 2007 10:11 PM

Refence to the GFDL in a recent post was excellent. Also excellent was a recent post on "Post Season Analysis". I've been thinking the same thing throughout the day so I got a kick out of it. More or less, I've seen less interesting subtropical systems getmore attention...and I've definately seen less impressive tropical systems get a designation. I agree with your statements that subtropical storms do typically exibit more uniform cloud activity around the center. However, they also have cloud activity that is generally shallower than we are seeing tonight. I consider this an offset and I really look forward to reading some post system analysis and reasoning. I am also puzzled why NWS frontal analysis shows an occluded front in the system, when that front is not connected to any Cold Fronts and/or warm fronts. It seems to me that they should be identifying this as a trough instead of an occluded front.

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dem05
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Re: subtropical storm andrea [Re: HanKFranK]
      #74627 - Tue May 08 2007 10:17 PM

FYI...As of 10:15PM, the Special Tropical Disturbance Statement on the NHC home website is gone. That may mean something (New STDS or advisories for an STS) or it will mean nothing at all. I guess we'll know with time.

EDIT: Disregard...the 4PM STDS is back now...Sorry!

EDIT: I will now get the official nickname of forum pscytzo, but that 4PM STDS is gone again...and I refreshed the page sevel times to make sure. Sorry about the craziness gang!

Edited by dem05 (Tue May 08 2007 10:33 PM)


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Doombot!
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Re: subtropical storm andrea [Re: dem05]
      #74629 - Tue May 08 2007 10:47 PM

<dusts off user ID for a new season>

It seems to still lack any form of core; I doubt this one is gonna get the bump up from NHC.


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BillD
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Re: subtropical storm andrea [Re: dem05]
      #74630 - Tue May 08 2007 10:48 PM

You are not crazy. I've seen that before. I think they have multiple, load balanced, servers and for some reason their content is not always in sync.

My guess is that the NHC, right or wrong, is not going to name this system at this point unless there is some major increase in intensity which I don't think is going to happen. This is one of those borderline systems that is hard to define. What I don't understand is why a non tropical system is not considered dangerous.

Bill


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dem05
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Re: subtropical storm andrea [Re: BillD]
      #74635 - Tue May 08 2007 11:21 PM

As a follow up to your comment, thank you for your redemption! An update STDS has been posted by the NHC, but the news isn't all that new. I expect they will wait for that morning recon flight...but the system is getting it's act together even more tonight. I'd be surprised if a flight is cancelled.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIADSAAT+shtml/090312.shtml?


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Hugh
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Re: subtropical storm andrea [Re: BillD]
      #74636 - Tue May 08 2007 11:24 PM

Quote:

You are not crazy. I've seen that before. I think they have multiple, load balanced, servers and for some reason their content is not always in sync.

My guess is that the NHC, right or wrong, is not going to name this system at this point unless there is some major increase in intensity which I don't think is going to happen. This is one of those borderline systems that is hard to define. What I don't understand is why a non tropical system is not considered dangerous.

Bill




The NHC pulled the Special Tropical Disturbance Statement shortly before 5pm as well, but only to update it and replace it a few minutes later. They did the same thing at 11pm. As far as the consideration of this thing being dangerous or not, that's not the issue - no one is questioning that it is dangerous, which is why the National Weather Service offices have issued various high wind warnings, gale warnings, etc. The NHC is not issuing advisories because it's not their job to warn the public about a non-tropical entity.

Now, as for the debate about whether NHC *should* consider this a tropical or sub-tropical entity, that's a matter for some debate. Right now it does not look very tropical to me, but six hours ago, I was thinking NHC would pull the trigger by now.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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dem05
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Re: subtropical storm andrea [Re: Hugh]
      #74637 - Tue May 08 2007 11:47 PM

Respectably, I must disagree. This system looks a lotmore subtropical/tropical that it did 6 hours ago.

IR Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html
Shortwave Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-ir2.html

At this point, I can only say that this agressive low has done everything anyone could ask to earn a name. If it keeps this up and doesn't cross land before recon, it more than desrves it too. NOTE: While watching the floaters, I invite you to click "NWS Fronts" on the menu. This has been updated and shows a 1mb pressure drop from 1001 to 1000mb. Also, you will note that the occluded front signature is now gone from the heart of the system and has been replaced by a distant trough line to the north and a Stationary Front that is disconnected and far to the east. This system is an independant Low Pressure system now.

Edited by dem05 (Tue May 08 2007 11:49 PM)


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BillD
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Re: subtropical storm andrea [Re: Hugh]
      #74639 - Wed May 09 2007 12:04 AM

Just to clarify what I meant, but not to belabor the point (this is not the right place for this discussion, and given past history could go on for hundreds of messages and get nowhere). The fact that gale warnings have been issued is not the same as the NHC issuing TS warnings. All I am saying is that it should be the same. There should be no difference based on the type of storm or which entity issued the warning, but the average person (and the media at large) is only going to pay attention to warnings from the NHC.

As far as this system, I think it looks more "tropical" than it has all day, but it is very disorganized, weak, and will likely not strengthen.

Bill

Edited by BillD (Wed May 09 2007 12:05 AM)


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Bloodstar
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Re: subtropical storm andrea [Re: BillD]
      #74640 - Wed May 09 2007 12:10 AM

Maybe I'm strange, but I don't see this as Named storm yet. The biggest issue I have with it is the obvious lack of centralized convection and and equally obvious lack of a eyewall. so it's like a big eye like feature that isn't contributing to the growth of the storm, either it needs to fill in the central convection or it needs to get the outer bands to create an eyewall and transition itself over.

Depending on how the storm is moving, it looks like it could have another 48 hours to develop, and it's certainly possible it could break through and develop either one of those features.

Let's see some more organization first.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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Clark
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Re: Is the Offshore Storm Subtropical? [Re: MikeC]
      #74641 - Wed May 09 2007 12:11 AM

Yikes, I've been slipping on posting for this one, especially since it's right up my alley!

From the outset, I gave this one about a 30% shot of getting to the subtropical level and 10% to the tropical level. My reasoning was mostly guided by the cyclone phase space analyses, as I have been following severe weather much more so than anything tropics-related lately, but was governed by the various model solutions for the storm in the phase space. Basically, they were (and still are) very similar to my mental set of "null case" tropical transition cases, where the cold core representation goes very close to a low-level warm core but sorta fades away. It showed a tightening of the wind field but ultimate decay of the storm, whereas the case of systems that completed tropical transition would more or less maintain themselves but go back cold-core in the phase space. It's tough to get across in words without having any pictures to help, but I don't have access to old phase space analyses of Epsilon (2005) -- probably the best case -- to really show this that well.

This system has and had many of the parameters necessary to complete transition but lacked the vertical temperature differential to get the tropical transition process started. Basically, part of the theory on how tropical cyclones develop is based upon a "heating efficiency" based on the difference in temperatures from the ocean's surface to the upper atmosphere, with a greater difference being better. There is a threshold for getting the engine going, to coin a term, and I don't think that it has been met here.

Satellite analyses show that the storm has never quite separated from its frontal structures nor has it shed the markings of an extratropical low. In particular, a cold front-type boundary is still evident to the east of the storm (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/avn-l.jpg -- time sensitive) and a descending dry air jet is present south and west of the storm (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/wv-l.jpg -- also time sensitive). These are both hallmarks of extratropical systems. Convection in the inner core has become better organized over the past day or two but is still not very well organized nor present near the center of the storm. The splotchy nature of it suggests that it is more of a slightly deeper form of the open cell (dubbed because of how it looks like numerous scattered cells) convection common with extratropical cyclones.

Essentially, while it has taken many of the steps toward becoming a subtropical or tropical system, it hasn't quite completed them all. The radius of maximum winds has tightened, perhaps in response to the slightly better convective organization -- particularly that ring evident about 200 miles from the center of the storm in the images above --and the system may have briefly developed a lower level warm core. But, it never developed that aloft, thanks to not getting organized enough convection-wise (as I believe HF alluded to) and now is more likely in the filling, or weakening, stages of its lifecycle. SSTs cool from here to the coast and land is just ahead.

It basically is an oddly-traveling occluded mid-latitude cyclone (say that three times fast!) that will go down as an interesting oddity and early precursor to what could be an active 2007 season.

Hope everyone's ready for the ride!

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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cieldumort
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Re: Is the Offshore Storm Subtropical? [Re: Clark]
      #74646 - Wed May 09 2007 01:11 AM

I think Clark makes the "company" argument not to name 90L extremely well, and those of us wondering if NHC may get around to bumping 90L would be remiss not to consider his words.

On the other hand

The front to 90Ls east is really no longer married to 90L, at all, but rather just a part of the very large cyclonic circulation. (90L being, IMHO, a subtropical storm embedded and birthed from within a much larger extra-tropical feature. And the older warm seclusion which took place is now probably just a bit of a trof, at best.

Also, many people mistakenly assume or demand that to be "subtropical" there must be a warm core. This is simply not so. Nor must there be strongest winds close to the "eye". In fact, quite the opposite of each is most often the case, and simply more correct. Certainly 90L, as a subtropical cyclone, stands far slimmer odds of ever transitioning over to warm-core, tropical, than, say, an Epsilon. That is undeniable. But the core has probably been just either side of neutral throughout the day, and that is classic subtropical. Also, the _very_ symmetrical wind field (I would recommend to anyone to glance this time-sensitive Scatterometer, while it is still valid, to see this first-hand, has tended to have an equally symmetrical core radius of maximum sustained winds roughly 100+ miles from the center. Again, truly subtropical.

I have probably mentioned this here before, and I'm sure I'll mention it somewhere again, that it is at least this individuals observation that NHC is usually extremely reluctant to name legitimate subtropical storms as such unless they have a better than 50-50 chance of transitioning to fully tropical, and right now, and all day long, that has not been the case with our 90L.

On the other hand, following the golden rule above, if there should be a decent flareup closer to the center overnight and/or before or during recon tomorrow, and especially if recon does find even a decent smidgen of warm core, then the official naming of (Andrea) before landfall still seems to me to be entirely possible.

It will be interesting to see how long it can last in at least it's current state, now that the clock is ticking, and it is currently on a course with dry land, and perhaps more dry air entrainment, as well. While I am not writing 90L off for a recon flight entirely, if it doesn't flare up overnight, I suspect NHC might leave this one for post-season. We've all seen this before.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Is the Offshore Storm Subtropical? [Re: cieldumort]
      #74647 - Wed May 09 2007 01:42 AM

Clark spelled it out correctly with his take on this. Also this storm couldnt vent intself. Tropical systems need a outflow...and its been vertically staked. 500mb and 850 is Baroclinic still. Its kinda like needing help breathing. It just cant do it unless it gets rid of the mid cyclone....and thats still there. Still there is a chance there could be a subtropical cyclone in the morning after recon checks it out. Winds are there.. center is there..but is it worth a name??? Well if it was moving away from land...probably not...but since its close and will bring coastal flooding and pressure of 1003-1005mb by Thurs morning landfall near St Aug-Fl/GA boarder they might go ahead with it.
It should move SW thru florida into central florida as it feels the ridge over the NE gulf.

Edited by scottsvb (Wed May 09 2007 01:43 AM)


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Bloodstar
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It's trying, it really is.... [Re: scottsvb]
      #74648 - Wed May 09 2007 02:22 AM

it's trying... it really is...
09/0545 UTC 30.9N 78.8W ST3.0/3.0 90L

up to 3.0 on the Dvorak classification, and the convection is starting to get colder compared to last night, and it is starting to creep into the center just a hair more. but it still got that 30 miles of clear space around the center that remain devoid of storms.

The storm does still appear to be tightening up, I was hoping to peek at CIMSS's ADT product, but it's not tracking the storm at the moment, at least not that i could find.

But... I'd give it even odds at this point in the next 24 hours. maybe I'm too optimistic, but it's doing better than I expected. let's see if the trend holds up.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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cieldumort
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Re: It's trying, it really is.... [Re: Bloodstar]
      #74649 - Wed May 09 2007 02:58 AM

I am >90% certain that if NHC doesn't name it -at some point *during* it's life cycle- 90L will be added during reanalysis as an unnamed storm.

As Bloodstar mentions above, the structure is indeed improving tonight. In fact, it is now looking like it is gradually taking on a little more *tropical* than just subtropical characteristics, especially with significantly deeper convection - as opposed to the mostly shallow convection early on - now starting to legitimately close in around the center at this hour.

In keeping with the headline of this thread, the question posed is not whether 90L is an extra-tropical storm or tropical storm, it is whether or not it is a *sub* tropical storm. For this, I would strongly suggest one reads the Glossary of NHC's Terms


This is exciting, of course! Would become the first named May storm since 1981 if bumped, yes?


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: It's trying, it really is.... [Re: cieldumort]
      #74650 - Wed May 09 2007 07:17 AM

Recon is around in there now, but hasn't sent back a full report (Vortex message), but the system still doesn't have all that much convection wise around the center. We'll probably know fairly shortly.

Nothing all that much new so far this morning.

From what I can tell so far winds are around 50 knots (Ie 55MPH)




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Hugh
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Re: It's trying, it really is.... [Re: MikeC]
      #74651 - Wed May 09 2007 07:58 AM

Quote:

Recon is around in there now, but hasn't sent back a full report (Vortex message), but the system still doesn't have all that much convection wise around the center. We'll probably know fairly shortly.





I thought that was the main difference between a subtropical and tropical system - the fact that in a subtropical storm the convection is largely separated and out from the LLC - that plus the cold core in a subtropical system.

Regarding my earlier comments - things are changing with time with this system. Earlier this morning it looked less impressive to me, but now it's back to getting its act together - VERY rapidly. In fact, it looks more impressive now than ever, particularly in the 1115z image, which is the latest I'm seeing.

Edit: Just pulled up the Jacksonville radar. The center of circulation is clearly visible as a very large eye-like feature on the long range radar. Maybe it's just that the radar loop is not very long - but I also notice this on the AVN loop now that I look at it closer - but I don't think "Unnamed/Andrea" is moving very fast, if at all. Given that the LLC is sitting over or very close to the Gulf stream waters... not good.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Wed May 09 2007 08:08 AM)


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dem05
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Re: It's trying, it really is.... [Re: Hugh]
      #74652 - Wed May 09 2007 08:30 AM

Well, we talked a whole lot about African Dust last year... Morning visible shows 90L is sucking up one heck of a lot of smoke from across the Florida Penninsula...Pretty amazing view actually.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

Any thoughts on if the smoke has a similar affect as dust? I'd imagine that it could hamper development somewhat.


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cieldumort
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Re: It's trying, it really is.... [Re: dem05]
      #74653 - Wed May 09 2007 08:45 AM

That's something you don't see every day. And interestingly enough, it does appear to be affecting the cyclone like dry air, in a way. I am not very well versed on what the effects should be, but it certainly seems to be at least a slight inhibitor, in that general area of ingestion, if nothing else.

Noticed that FNMOC has pulled "90L". We wait...

Eh. There it is again. (I was considering the possibility that it was being replaced with noname)

Edited by cieldumort (Wed May 09 2007 08:54 AM)


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cieldumort
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Subtropical Storm Andrea [Re: cieldumort]
      #74654 - Wed May 09 2007 09:07 AM

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
905 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE IS ACQUIRING
THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE... ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WOULD BE
INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF THE
CAROLINAS... GEORGIA... AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. INTERESTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


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allan
Weather Master


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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea [Re: cieldumort]
      #74655 - Wed May 09 2007 09:14 AM

OK so we will probably have Subtropical Storm Andrea at 11 a.m. I'm pretty sure I will be under a tropical storm warning lol.. the smoke here is so heavy right now thanks to (Andrea)

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea [Re: allan]
      #74656 - Wed May 09 2007 09:17 AM

Yea allan it looks that way but theres really no deep convection near the center so in reality this is still cold core but the transition to a sun-tropical storm has been under way and avisories should begin at 11am if the present trend continues.Thats if.

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cieldumort
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Re: Is the Offshore Storm Subtropical? [Re: MikeC]
      #74658 - Wed May 09 2007 09:50 AM

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc...-791W.100pc.jpg

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NewWatcher
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Posts: 386
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
ANDREA [Re: cieldumort]
      #74659 - Wed May 09 2007 09:53 AM

Navy site now says 01ANDREA

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 144
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL 29.03N 80.93W
Re: It's trying, it really is.... [Re: dem05]
      #74660 - Wed May 09 2007 09:55 AM

Quote:

Well, we talked a whole lot about African Dust last year... Morning visible shows 90L is sucking up one heck of a lot of smoke from across the Florida Penninsula...Pretty amazing view actually.





This morning the sky is blue in New Smyrna Beach, and there is a strong smell of smoke for the second day in a row.

Andrea does look a little better organized (at least to the newbie I am), in particular in the west side of it, but the core does not seem to have an organized eye. Is my observation correct? If yes, what does this mean?

(Pam - do you have as much smoke in Port Orange as we do here?)

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma

Edited by vineyardsaker (Wed May 09 2007 09:56 AM)


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Is the Offshore Storm Subtropical? [Re: cieldumort]
      #74661 - Wed May 09 2007 09:59 AM

If the models are correct it could be great news for those people living in FL and GA that have been fighting wild fires. Even better news if some how it can get in the GOM and merge with a frontal boundary and bring the central gulfcoast some rain




--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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nl
Storm Tracker


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Re: It's trying, it really is.... [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #74662 - Wed May 09 2007 10:02 AM

yeah im in new smyrna beach to and and is bad with the smoke but i think the smoke is making her stronger. i have been saying andrea for like 2 days now and i was right. sorry guys i havent been on in a while. im so excited about this year's season. this is just the taste of the medicine we are about to get this year. did you see all the tropical waves coming off of africa already and clark thank you for the advise about where to goto school for my meteorology degree last yr. i took your advice about that and im transferring from dbcc to florida institution of technology for my meteorology degree. go andrea!

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MadDog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 51
Loc: DeBary, Florida
Re: It's trying, it really is.... [Re: nl]
      #74664 - Wed May 09 2007 10:06 AM

The models certainly don't agree with each other. They are all over the board.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 813
Loc: hollywood,florida 26.19N 80.10W
Re: It's trying, it really is.... [Re: MadDog]
      #74666 - Wed May 09 2007 10:17 AM

The last time we had a named storm in May was back in 1981.It was Arlene and it had a short life(May 6-9).So we are seeing something rare indeed.We can only hope it will help with the fires.Right now of course it is making them worse with all wind and little or no rain.This is just to early for all this.
p.s. The smoke and smell were bad here in Ft Laud. last night and they are calling for the same this evening.

Edited by ftlaudbob (Wed May 09 2007 10:21 AM)


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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 144
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL 29.03N 80.93W
Re: It's trying, it really is.... [Re: nl]
      #74667 - Wed May 09 2007 10:18 AM

Quote:

did you see all the tropical waves coming off of africa already




nope. being a noob at all this (-: I moved from *Switzerland* for crying out loud! :-) . were do you look that stuff up?

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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AdrianInFlorida
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 12
Loc: Indialantic, FL
Re: It's trying, it really is.... [Re: nl]
      #74668 - Wed May 09 2007 10:19 AM

Quote:

yeah im in new smyrna beach to and and is bad with the smoke but i think the smoke is making her stronger. i have been saying andrea for like 2 days now and i was right. sorry guys i havent been on in a while. im so excited about this year's season. this is just the taste of the medicine we are about to get this year. did you see all the tropical waves coming off of africa already and clark thank you for the advise about where to goto school for my meteorology degree last yr. i took your advice about that and im transferring from dbcc to florida institution of technology for my meteorology degree. go andrea!


I live on the coast, but work in Orlando, and the smoke inland is just horrible. Hopefully some of the rain that's spinning offshore will get in and start to do it's thing.

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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 144
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL 29.03N 80.93W
Re: It's trying, it really is.... [Re: AdrianInFlorida]
      #74669 - Wed May 09 2007 10:23 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Hopefully some of the rain that's spinning offshore will get in and start to do it's thing.




I am not sure this is in the making. The rotation would bring the winds from Andrea over land before it gets to the Florida coast, so this just might be - in my totally un-informed wild guess - a dry event

Can the more knowledgable forumites share their opinion with us: will Florida finally get some good rain?

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
Re: It's trying, it really is.... [Re: AdrianInFlorida]
      #74671 - Wed May 09 2007 10:27 AM

Thankfully the smoke in coastal sections of Spring Hill isn't like it was yesterday morning. The wind has shifted and is pushing the smoke to inland counties (sorry guys).

They do have rain chances going up to 40% by Friday and keeping around 30% chance in the forecast for the next 7 days. Slowly we are moving toward our rainy season.

Dewpoints have risen nearly 20° since yesterday morning here an indication that the atmosphere is working up toward good things we hope, esp. for northern Fla. and southern Georgia


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
interesting obs on smoke and the storm [Re: ChessieStorm]
      #74672 - Wed May 09 2007 10:38 AM

very interesting, wondering if the smoke did or does have any effect on the development

can she get ash from the georgia fire in her circulation and how different would that be than african dust

interesting, thanks for mentioning it here

we will have to watch andrea and see

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
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Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: interesting obs on smoke and the storm [Re: LoisCane]
      #74673 - Wed May 09 2007 10:47 AM

000
WTNT31 KNHC 091443
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 AM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

...EARLY-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS ACQUIRED SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...225 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 150 MILES
...240 KM...NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

ANDREA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH. A CONTINUED
SLOW MOTION AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALONG THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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