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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3889
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
      #74663 - Wed May 09 2007 10:05 AM

6:30PM Update

Andrea is holding on to itself, convection in the northwestern side has died out much. The water temperature below the storm is not t really high enough to sustain tropical conversion (77F/25C), so it's likely to remain as is. It's not going to be moving much either,at least until Friday it seems. There is still a lot of dry air around the system as well.

The forecast is for it to gradually head toward Florida and dissipate. There is a lot of evidence to support this as well. Andrea will be a mostly dry, moderate wind event with a few showers coming off of it in short bands. Not enough to cause much drought/fire relief in Florida.

If it manages to hang on until the weekend, an approaching cold front and trough are set up to finish it off during the weekend.



10:58 Update
Tropical Storm watches are now up from Altamaha sound in Georgia south to Flagler Beach, FL.
Winds are at 45MPH, pressure 1003 mb.

Andrea is the first named storm in May since 1981s Arlene. And several weeks before the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Ana in 2003 was also a pre-season named storm in April.

Andrea is expected currently to move slowly southward, interestingly the NHC suggests that it may not make landfall as a named system and will likely dissipate over the next day or so.

This system is mostly a marine and wind event for the coast, which is not good for the fires. Rain, unfortunately, does not appear to be much of a factor with this system. We wil watch it, however.



Original Update
Pre-Season subtropical storm Andrea has formed, advisories should begin at 11AM.
... Windspeeds are near 50MPH. Still rather disorganized.

More to come soon.



Andrea
(New Season/Storm: Images may be slow to update or old initially.)

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot

stormplotthumb_1.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Google Map Plot of System
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Andrea

Floater Satellite Image ( ( visLoop) WV loop)

Radar Loops
Jacksonville FL Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Charleston, SC Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

More on the Links page


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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #74665 - Wed May 09 2007 10:11 AM

I want to post a satelite website I use. The only bad thing about it is it doesn't do loops, but it is a close up of the state of Florida and southern Georgia. It also shows the "storm" off the east coast.

Florida Sat. Pic


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Andrea indeed [Re: ChessieStorm]
      #74670 - Wed May 09 2007 10:23 AM

So it seems that recon found the evidence we lacked and we have our first storm of the season.

It would be easier if the parameters were more specific for sub-tropical storm formation. I suppose it still comes down to making the call on a system that can be viewed by some as borderline.

She hung in pretty good over night.

Good observation on the smoke getting caught up a bit in the storm. Would like to see some post storm analysis on how that did or didn't have an effect.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Anton Ross
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 42
Loc: Downtown Beaufort Marina, SC
Beaufort, SC feeling little impact [Re: LoisCane]
      #74674 - Wed May 09 2007 10:48 AM

One would think, just by looking at radar, that coastal SC was getting wetter than it really is. My wife's parents are in Myrtle Beach, and they had some rain/wind overnight, but here in Beaufort, we only had some gusty breezes yesterday and a few spits of rain, but not enough to even soak into the ground. It has "looked" menacing for the last 24 hours...on and off again...but other than a few limbs tossed around a non-event.

I'd be interested in seeing more info about how the GA fires/smoke may have influenced this storm.

Anton

--------------------
"A man's ethical behavior should be based effectually on sympathy, education, and social ties; no religious basis is necessary.
-Albert Einstein


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 138
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #74675 - Wed May 09 2007 10:56 AM

Strange thing is that is doesn't look much different than it did last night. Maybe a new "call a duck a duck" policy over at the NHC?

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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #74676 - Wed May 09 2007 11:00 AM

Mike your map of subTS Andrea (on the left of the page) is not working all I get are red x's.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3889
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast [Re: ChessieStorm]
      #74677 - Wed May 09 2007 11:02 AM

Quote:

Mike your map of subTS Andrea (on the left of the page) is not working all I get are red x's.




The left bar/map/coordinates are all automated. That map comes from the NHC, it'll probably take a few minutes for them to put it up.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast [Re: Doombot!]
      #74678 - Wed May 09 2007 11:06 AM

The storm may not be much different than what it was last night, but NHC wasn't going to make the call until a plane got in there to observe the structure of the system.

I doubt the fires have had much effect on the system. Some of the individual convective cells on the periphery of the system may be affected by ingesting the smoke (akin to a cloud "seeding" effect), but the overall structure of the system should not be affected.


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #74679 - Wed May 09 2007 11:07 AM

an interesting note to this is that we now have the first named storm in May in 26 years

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PutnamGator
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 5
Loc: Putnam County, FL
Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #74680 - Wed May 09 2007 11:09 AM

So far all we are getting from Andrea is wind, which is exactly what we do NOT need. The fire situation is getting worse, so we need rain, not wind, and the advisory states to not expect much rain inland from it before Thursday morning.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: hollywood,florida 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast [Re: PutnamGator]
      #74681 - Wed May 09 2007 11:54 AM

In case anyone was wondering if having a named storm this early means a very bad season,take a look here: http://www.umbc.edu/ges/student_projects/Geog480_HurricaneWebPage/fullres1981.html You will see that in 1981(the last time this happened)it was a near normal season.So let's hope this season will be also.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Wed May 09 2007 11:59 AM)


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #74682 - Wed May 09 2007 12:11 PM

A bit too early to be following a system but so be it.

Like everyone else, I wish it would bring some rain for the Florida Fire situation. Lots of smoke in the air today in Central Florida.

Intresting thought about what effect smoke has on a tropical system. My first thought would be that it would have a negative effect but I wonder what the experts think....

Hello to everyone.



Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed May 09 2007 09:16 PM)


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #74683 - Wed May 09 2007 12:12 PM



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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #74684 - Wed May 09 2007 12:19 PM

Well, convection still isn't over the center, but it is closer to the center and of slightly better "quality" than yesterday. Also, as the NHC noted, the radius of maximum winds has contracted since yesterday, another sign of better organization. Thus, given the flat thermal profiles that recon found -- which aren't all that far off from what the models had shown, probably because of the Jacksonville and Charleston upper air obs and their trajectories -- we've got a subtropical storm.

In my opinion, it's still a borderline case, but given the proximity to land it gets the upgrade. If this were out in the central Atlantic, I'm not so sure it gets the upgrade regardless of recon status. As for impacts from this one, think Tammy from 2005, only on the opposite trajectory (southwest then south rather than north then northwest). Tammy was another storm with dubious structure that eventually brought an inch or so of rain to parts of the Southeast US.

NHC forecast looks good and reasonable; this is one where you really don't need modeling, at least for the intensity portion. SSTs aren't warming -- and in fact cool from here on out -- and the upper level temperatures at the tropopause aren't cooling, so it's like a TC over cooler waters in the East Pacific. A slow decay should be expected over the next couple of days, made slower by the fact that it still has a signature aloft.

It's been an interesting week for the storm system that spawned Andrea, starting off in Texas with two consecutive nights of MCS formation (including one night with a derecho) and progressing eastward along the periphery of the subtropical ridge that had been parked near Florida. The last TC that I can recall that had any tie to an MCS (large thunderstorm complex over land) was Danny in 1997, which formed in the Gulf after one such complex moved out over water and did not dissipate like most of them do.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast [Re: Clark]
      #74685 - Wed May 09 2007 01:33 PM

The storm will slowly weaken in time. The LLC will try to vent a weak high over it as it pulls south-sw over the next 24-36 hours. It will have its mid and upper low now to its east and northeast and ridge over the NE gulf. It doesnt look well on Satellite right now..but I expect T-Showers to develop more overnight (as warmcore systems do). I dont think though it will gain strength..infact slight weakening as Clark said due to many limiting factors..including cool SSTs in the mid 70s down to the Cape. I think it has a chance to come inland near St Augustine..maybe down towards Daytona Beach.. main impact with this system will be much needed rain squalls and some coastle flooding and erosion on the beaches.

Next ...possible 20% chance for a system to come up from the carribean in about a weeks time. Patten should set up with the 588mb ridge in the eastern carribean should push moisture N towards Cuba, Florida and the Bahamas next week.


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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.41N 81.24W
Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast [Re: OcalaKT]
      #74687 - Wed May 09 2007 02:05 PM

Just a brief note - There has been a death attributed to Andrea this morning - - Surfer in the waves at New Smyrna Beach - - Also hearing about significant erosion in volusia County.

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast [Re: Wingman51]
      #74688 - Wed May 09 2007 02:10 PM

I've seen this so called weakening trend, in my opinion, it is probably going through some re-organization. Maybe.. not saying it is, maybe it could actually be weakening, but I think it's just a fluctuation, the banding looks good now but the convection has weakened, especially to the west.. but, the east convection is re-strengthening. Try not to call the storm dead just yet, it's still got a day to go before hitting my county here in Florida!

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast [Re: allan]
      #74689 - Wed May 09 2007 02:32 PM

If the storm is going to have any real organization and stregthening, it will be tonight. If the upper atmosphere can cool enough to push the system towards a tropical (warmcore) system, then you'll see the convection fire up bit bit more, and perhaps even some central convection.

If tonight, you don't see much convection, then the system will likely simply spin down off the coast.

At least that's my take on it.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast [Re: Bloodstar]
      #74690 - Wed May 09 2007 02:59 PM

well here's the LATEST satellite from wunderground.. looks like a new center is redeveloping nicely to the east.. here's the site
http://www.wunderground.com/satellite/vis/1k/US.html
Something tells me it wants to do something

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast [Re: Bloodstar]
      #74691 - Wed May 09 2007 03:01 PM

Isn't it forecasted to spin down? I haven't seen anything on it strengthening, but rather slowly weakening and maybe cross the state as a low pressure system and then get caught up in a frontal boundary moving east.

Water temps aren't that high out there and the gulf stream isn't burning up either, granted I've seen storms maintain strength in cooler waters, so anything is possible.


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