scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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allan that is just a opening in the cloudy shield.. the LLC is about 45miles west of there....it maybe that the opening is also the midlevel circulation now as forecasted...that will then push Andrea later SSW towards St. Augustine by morning!.
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Clark and others . Would this storm have any chance to do anything if it made the GOM ? Models seem to still be all over the place with this storm . Seems to be getting a little big better organized over the past hour with some new convection starting to fire.
Link to SF WMD model (Converted to link for "Image size and linking." rule.)
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Edited by HCW (Wed May 09 2007 04:23 PM)
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Sorry about that,
Wasn't implying it was supposed to strengthen, but instead that if it was going to have any window to buck the odds, tonight would be the most likely time it would do so.
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Jumaduke
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: North Florida
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I'm curious to know if this storm will be steered North, out into the Atlantic, or if it will be shoved down onto Florida. We really really could use a TS right now. I saw a graphic earlier that projected it heading NE and was very sad. Also, if I'm not mistaken, the last few satellite images I saw showed it seemingly less organized and producing less rain.
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Go Gators!
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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
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Bloodstar, I know what you're talking about. At night these storms, ragged or organized, get cranked up, I guess we'll see if Andrea does or not.
But it certainly isn't going to be turning into a monster or whatever. All bark and no bite. Plus we need the rain.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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I highly doubt it makes the GOM; if it does, it will be in a severely weakened state and need several days of re-organization to get going, which it won't have given an approaching upper level trough and associated cold front into the weekend.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Deep convection has all but disappeared from the western side of the circulation, with just a few shallow showers left on the skeletal bands. However, the eastern side is a different story, with increasing deep convection now flaring up. If this can wrap around a bit more into this evening and overnight, then Andrea could hold on as a little stronger for a little longer.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Ya, I totally agree.. maybe she could surprise us with 60 mph. later tonight or in the morning. It looks "ok" for a 40 mph. tropical storm. I think it's finally becoming purely tropical, I may be wrong.. but thats what I think. I agree with the track but not with the strengh. She may be a stronger storm when it hits here in Palm Coast. SOmething to watch. Deffinatly no hurricane LOL
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
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I have to disagree... this storm has not impressed me thus far, and I don't expect it to. In fact, I'm not 100% sure it was a good call by the to classify this as a subtropical storm.
Anyway, whether or not it does make a completely tropical transition--which I, again, don't expect at all--the forecast would remain the same, increased wave activity, rip current risk, minor beach erosion, gusty conditions, and showers off & on... not much else.
WW-911
Edited by weather_wise911 (Wed May 09 2007 06:28 PM)
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Lookin pretty weak right now. Little convection on the west side at all and that on the right doesn't appear to be wrapping. Sure hope she can hang long enough to enhance our rain chance.....
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Satellite imagery through 0925z ( 5:35 am edt) is indicating light to moderate shear in the mid to upper levels of Andrea.
Rough estimate of 25-30 nm difference between the Surface Center and the mid/ upper level center.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
Models--- There is at least one model over the last 36 hours ...that takes some part, or all of Andrea into the GOM.
And several of the intensity models start increasing the wind speed at 60 hours, or Noon Saturday.
Watch and see...
Recon is still in the chocks, but should be airborne shortly.
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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818
WTNT31 KNHC 101443
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2007
...ANDREA WEAKENS TO A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION...
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS DISCONTINUED.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD...AND THIS SLOW
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST TODAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 35
MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE PLANE
WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...29.9 N...79.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE National Hurricane Center AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Edited by Hurricane29 (Thu May 10 2007 11:01 AM)
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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Futher intensification is very unlikely as i was thinking with these fast upper level winds and all this dry air its really taken a toll.
A COMEBACK SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE DRY AND STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...COMBINED WITH NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...DEPICTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A CONTINUED DECLINE IS FORECAST...AND UNLESS
DEEP CONVECTION REDEVEOPS SOON...ANDREA WILL PROBABLY NO LONGER
QUALIFY AS A DEPRESSION BY TOMORROW OR PERHAPS EARLIER.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Note the use of the word "probably" as May or really June storms can be the hardest to predict as steering currents are not set in stone or as predictable.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Quote:
ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
well, 3-4 inches would have been better, but we will thankfully take anything Andrea can give us.
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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At this point, the only reason they'll continue advisories past 5PM is the proximity to the coast. It's pretty much DOA. (of course watch convection redevelop on the SE side in the next hour or two. heh)
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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there's still some convective banding with andrea... just a little. andrea didn't have much of an environmental window to organize... once it's baroclinic energy began to wane it just managed to hybridize, and is now reaping the reward of being a weak tropical system in a dry, marginal environment. the pre-andrea low was still quite a coastal storm for this time of year. there seems to have been very little benefit as far as drought-relief, but the rest of the storm's side effects seem to have helped the wildfires more than anything.
andrea can continue drifting south, and probably not find any help as far as warmer waters go. the nearby environment should become increasingly baroclinic this weekend and the remnant will probably become involved and whip out to sea, just like the forecast says. aside from nicole in 2004, andrea is now the only named subtropical system that was operationally tracked that didn't become fully tropical. i mean, it still could, but very unlikely.
HF 0326z11may
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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As Hank eluded to. The remnants of STD Andrea are still lurking off of the Eastern Florida Coast.
At 6 AM EDT the convection on the eastern side of the Low has a convective tower with 1 solitary top to 40,000 feet. The convective tower appears to be over the Gulf Stream.
Melbourne NWS radar loop is indicating a near Southward motion. However the Storm Relative Velocity winds are from 277degrees(WNW) at 17 knots.
Personally, I will continue to keep an eye,or two, on the Low. Mainly due to past experiences.
The 00Z model run of the still had something, at some level, moving into the GOM.
Keep an eye or ear on the weather this weekend. Just in case.
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Quote:
Personally, I will continue to keep an eye,or two, on the Low. Mainly due to past experiences.
Has that kind of semi-DOA and disorganized depression ever recovered into a better organized system in the past?
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Yes, Vineyard. While I am not awake-enough to recall for you the numerous examples of "dead" named systems that have flared back to life, they have, indeed, been numerous. Perhaps one that always stands out in my mind as one of the _most striking_ examples of such a re-awakening is Hurricane . Read more about him here and here , for example.
In regards to that one 40k topped tower of overnight... things actually look better for Andrea now than Thursday afternoon. This morning I awake to see a healthy ball of convection nearly right over the lower level center. If anything, Andrea strikes me far more like a struggling Tropical Depression, than a dissipating Sub tropical Depression, this morning. Notice the small but healthier and somewhat more concentrated and concentric rainbands that have persisted now for a few hours visible from the Melbourne radar sight? These features are much, much more tropical-like than subtropical.
She's over a warmer fetch of the Gulf Stream at this point. Wind shear once again seems low, and there now appears to be less dry air to ingest. A few more hours of this kind of activity, and especially if they get some buoy and/or ship data coming in that suggests winds are also picking up and pressures are dropping once again, they will certainly have to restart advisories. Too close to land not to.
I always say never write-off a so-called "dead" tropical or subtropical entity. If nothing else, they can now behave like a tropical wave or other such TC precursor for the next system. A smashing example of this is how TD10 in 2005 blended with TD12 to birth one certain K-named storm.
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