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Archives >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? No
      #74741 - Fri May 11 2007 04:37 PM

Andrea has been pushed off away and no longer an issue. This morning it's actually looking a bit better organized, but the front and colder waters are very near, so it's assumed to just have run out of time. This isn't necessarily a precursor to the rest of the season, it fairly likely June will be mostly inactive. This time of year for development you would look to the Western Caribbean, and not much is there now. (Discussion of West Caribbean Model hyperactivity here)

The start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is June 1st.

Hurricane Preparedness week is May 20-27th.

The Florida Sales Tax Free Holiday for Hurricane preparedness items begins the first week of June and ends midnight June 12th.
  • Flashlights and other portable, self-powered light sources - $20 or less
  • Portable radios, two-way radios and weather-band radios - $75 or less
  • Tarps - $50 or less
  • Gas or diesel fuel containers - $25 or less
  • Batteries - $30 or less (AAA, AA, C and D cell, and 6 and 9 volt batteries)
  • Non-electrical food storage coolers - $30 or less
  • Portable generators - $1,000 or less
  • Carbon monoxide detectors - $75 or less
  • Storm shutter devices - $200 or less

Original Update
Andrea fell apart yesterday and the last advisory was issued at 11PM last night, however...

The remnants of Andrea have held together well and are now 75 miles east of Central Florida, and may once again have a chance to develop. This time however it's developing more true tropical characteristics and may have a shot at becoming a true Tropical Depression soon. This is a very interesting May system.

However, the cold front talked about before is still approaching and is more than enough to kick it away, but it will be an interesting twist if Andrea redevelops. Once again, aircraft recon is scheduled for tomorrow morning if the storm persists overnight (and it looks like it may)

However, all said, it is still not likely the system will regenerate enough to be considered a depression, but it's more tropical than it once was.

More to come later...

Andrea Remnants:
(New Season/Storm: Images may be slow to update or old initially.)

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot

stormplotthumb_1.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Google Map Plot of System
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Andrea

Floater Satellite Image ( ( visLoop) WV loop)

Radar Loops
Jacksonville FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Miami, FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

More on the Links page


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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA 29.93N 89.93W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: MikeC]
      #74742 - Fri May 11 2007 05:12 PM

Had a nice blow up earlier, died some and is now firing again. Nice blow up going on right now on the SE side of the system. Sure looks like a Tropical Depression......too bad the plane isn't going out there now. I think they'd find something.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #74743 - Fri May 11 2007 05:15 PM

Radar imagery from Melbourne seems to show that the system may now be starting to move with at least some easterly component. Also looks as if it may be tightening up a little, but still pretty skeletal. Satellite still shows deep convection over the southeast of the LLCC. Maybe it might hold just long enough to be reclassified!

EDIT:
Radar and visible imagery shows convection really getting going over and to the southeast of the centre. Seems to be growing some, with some moderate convection now kicking up on the southwest band overland Florida.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Edited by Rich B (Fri May 11 2007 05:48 PM)


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: MikeC]
      #74744 - Fri May 11 2007 05:46 PM

This may sound a bit "Point-Counterpoint"...and yes...I'm representing Florida well here as a rain wishcaster right now, here. But I'll put my money with the NOGAPS at this point.

A.) It was the first model to really pick up on something "Andrea" and try to do something with it.
B.) In general, it has done a better job of putting Andrea's remenants where they are right now.

From this point, even though it has weakened, the system looks more tropical than any model, forecaster, or any of us may have expected. The evolution of this system and it's surrounding environment has been somewhat complicated. I yield to the fact that the models may see something that is not actually there. NHC made reference in a one of their advisory discussion packages that Andrea would decouple between the surface and upper levels. It has done that and the models (i.e. GFS, UKMET, CMC, etc.) may be handling the Mid-Upper level components of the system moreso in each of their runs. The additional reason why I like the NOGAPS model at this point is that that it does pull Andrea's remenants (Or possible Andrea Reborn) to the NE for a short time as the relatively small trough and front comming down interacts with it. After that, it then recognizes that the mid lattitude environment is progressively evolving at a fast pace. The high passes behind the trough/front and moves to the north of "Old Andrea"...Blocking the Andrea remenants/redeveloped system in. From this point, she moves south into the Bahamas then westward across Florida (Say around West Palm with an exit in SWFL) ...progressively weakening from the Bahamas onward.

NOGAPS 850mb 12Z Run: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2...;hour=Animation

NOGAPS Surface 12Z (Watch the ridge pass/block to the north): http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2...;hour=Animation

Yeah...rain wishcasting...but the possibilty of this actually happening cannot be discredited or discounted either.

Edited by dem05 (Fri May 11 2007 05:52 PM)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 400
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #74745 - Fri May 11 2007 05:57 PM

Maybe, but I'd lean towards not enough to be classified quite yet, though the T numbers are now at 1.0/1.0 Once it gets to 1.5 and there's still a definite closed circulation on radar, I think they'll reinitiate advisories on the system. The convection is pulsing, and dragging the coc further to the south, which could keep it over warmer waters.

I'm impressed with the tenacity of the system, and it's certainly warmcore now. However the system is extremely fragile in the sense that anything disruptive will probably open the low. Heck, a good outflow boundry could kill this system as is.

--------------------
TD/TS/HU/MH
16/15/09/04 <- My prediction (2014 Predictions)
03/03/01/00 <- Year Totals

http://blog.bloodstar.org


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: dem05]
      #74746 - Fri May 11 2007 06:32 PM

I agree with ya Dem05. I have sinced kept a close eye on NOGAPS.. seems to do good with systems like that. However tonight the storms are flaring up nicely... will they hold? I agree that this is becoming more warm core now. If the current trend holds... i would expect recon to find something interesting in the morning.
Might be an interesting night watching the sats and radars!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri May 11 2007 06:41 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: dem05]
      #74747 - Fri May 11 2007 06:47 PM

Quote:

From this point, she moves south into the Bahamas then westward across Florida (Say around West Palm with an exit in SWFL) ...progressively weakening from the Bahamas onward.
Yeah...rain wishcasting...but the possibilty of this actually happening cannot be discredited or discounted either.




I went to the links, and it looks like they show the system dissipating over the Bahamas, not crossing the state. What am I missing?

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 423
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #74748 - Fri May 11 2007 07:48 PM

You are right, Bloodstar- this tenacious system shows signs of developing but it seems the system will die over the Bahamas before it can get a season's first test run over Florida. The coming front may not be strong enough to nudge this system away- but I don't see this from becoming a rain threat to Florida.

--------------------
________2014 Forecast: 10/4/1________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #74749 - Fri May 11 2007 09:58 PM

That ULL in the GOM is still moving east. Don't think our low off of Florida will make it between all the features
Water Vapor What i do like is its looking like all that dry air over parts of Florida is finally going away! Just looks like alot of Sea Breeze T-storms now, which may cause more wildfires next week unless we get a good soaking rain in the areas that really need it.. THE WHOLE STATE!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL 28.31N 80.68W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #74750 - Fri May 11 2007 10:21 PM

Here in E. Central FL, the barometric pressure has starting climbing from this afternoon. We had a gust of 32 earlier today. I checked the buoys where the center is between and both are also rising. I wish it would come back to FL as we need the rain, but the chances are VERY slim.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri May 11 2007 11:25 PM)


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: h2ocean]
      #74758 - Sat May 12 2007 02:31 AM

At 0545utc today, the system had TNumbers of 1.5/1.5 up from the 1.0/1.0 of yesterday.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1090
Loc: Lexington, Ky 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Rich B]
      #74759 - Sat May 12 2007 09:41 AM

Wiping the sand out of my eyes here. 'Morning. Just looking over this most recent image.

We're still calling these "Andreas Remnants"- lol - seems like there should be a better description, even if not TD owing to technical qualifications unmet. We've seen worse looking TDs. There is now a pretty decent convective feeder band from the s-sw, and on again off again ball of convection right about the LLC, And pressures were dropping throughout the night in a couple of places.

However, the strongest winds I have found within 150 nm radius of the approximate center came in a few hours ago at 32 knots, from only one ship report (QCd?), while the rest of the buoy, c-man & ship data leaves me entirely unimpressed. And now a lot of area pressures seem to be rising some again, and in some instances they are much higher than when x-Andrea was actually a named system.

One thing for sure, x-Andrea seems a lot more juiced up in the lower levels than at other times in days passed. If Florida could only get a lucky break and have her slide inland while not producing nearly as much wind as earlier, but with these healthy blowups of convection!


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Rich B]
      #74760 - Sat May 12 2007 09:44 AM

Quote:

At 0545utc today, the system had TNumbers of 1.5/1.5 up from the 1.0/1.0 of yesterday.




And yet there is absolutely NO mention of the system on NHC's website this morning. The last advisory for Andrea has been removed, and there is no Special Tropical Disturbance Statement. The recon Plan of the Day shows a flight into "Subtropical Storm Andrea" for 12/18z - I thought yesterday it showed it as remnants of Andrea. What is going on with the folks at the NHC????

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Hugh]
      #74761 - Sat May 12 2007 10:23 AM

They talk about it in today's TWD:

Quote:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SMALL 1004 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN CAPE CANAVERAL AND
DAYTONA BEACH NEAR 29N79W. THE PRESSURE OF THIS LOW HAS DROPPED
DURING THE NIGHT BUT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 74W-80W. WHILE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.




But realistically, it's not a "system" at this point, so while they're keeping an eye on it, they're walking the line between watching and beating the public over the head with it and risking desensitizing them this soon into the season.

It's just the geeks like us who are watching it. *LOL*

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: madmumbler]
      #74762 - Sat May 12 2007 10:32 AM

Quote:


But realistically, it's not a "system" at this point, so while they're keeping an eye on it, they're walking the line between watching and beating the public over the head with it and risking desensitizing them this soon into the season.
It's just the geeks like us who are watching it. *LOL*




If it's not a "system" at this point, it probably never was, and shouldn't have been classified if that was the case.
There is significantly more convection near the center than there ever was when it was considered a subtropical storm. Rotation can be seen on the Melbourne long range radar. I'm not saying it's the most impressive sight ever, but it's no less of a tropical cyclone than it was when it was named, based upon satellite and radar presentation. The WV loop shows shear, though, so even if it is currently a TD/TS, it likely won't survive.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: madmumbler]
      #74763 - Sat May 12 2007 10:33 AM

NRL has it at 25 kts and 1005 mb, given that and the lack of a discernible center on Melbourne radar, i am going to guess that the recon flight will be canceled

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1090
Loc: Lexington, Ky 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Rabbit]
      #74764 - Sat May 12 2007 10:55 AM

To call it 25 knots overall seems reasonable. I can't find anything in the way of ground-truthing the available QuikSCAT data, which actually indicates top winds near the LLC approaching 35 knots, and in the feeder band even approaching something closer to 45 knots! (Here)
& (Here)



I have to conclude that a lot of these strongest winds are just a mix of rain-contamination, and perhaps a few stronger gusts within some strong thunderstorms... (notice how some of the winds are suggested to be going against x-Andreas surface rotation, for example).

Still, I don't think recon should be scrubbed. They wouldn't be investigating a hurricane to be sure, but they would be investigating an impressive Invest still close to land. Makes sense to me!


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: cieldumort]
      #74765 - Sat May 12 2007 11:03 AM

Quote:

Still, I don't think recon should be scrubbed.




it shouldnt be, but probably will be
unfortunately, since its May, we're not finding anything new out for several hours, since there is no tropical outlook


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Rabbit]
      #74766 - Sat May 12 2007 11:04 AM

Quote:

NRL has it at 25 kts and 1005 mb, given that and the lack of a discernible center on Melbourne radar, i am going to guess that the recon flight will be canceled




I guess I'm seeing things, because I see a discernable center on Melbourne radar. It's looking severely sheared on WV though, so you're probably right, especially considering that the NHC has not commented today.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: cieldumort]
      #74767 - Sat May 12 2007 11:06 AM

X-Andrea is still not letting go, in fact she is looking good this morning.. good enough to go ahead and get recon over in there. I don't agree with many wunderground bloggers, this storm still has a chance. I'm not an expert or something but I do see a closed circulation. I read one of the blogs that said recon is a no go, and the the circulation is way out of the convection bursts, but from what i'm looking at, it looks like a regular tropical system! Also, how can you not fly into a very impressive storm for the month of May? I'm waiting to hear about either TD or TS Andrea by 5 p.m.
I'm not trying to bash wunderground bloggers.. but they need to analyze the storm before just saying that it's gone.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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