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Archives >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: andrea heading out [Re: HanKFranK]
      #74811 - Tue May 15 2007 10:16 PM

I agree that it'll be interesting to see what they do in the post-analysis and I also agree that you can make the case for adding some regeneration time to the end. But, operationally, unless it is a threat to someone, the NHC generally will be very slow in bringing a storm back -- particularly something that is not 100% clear cut.

I agree with their assessment in the first two days or so after declassification, even when it had one persistent convective flare-up. There wasn't any organization to the convection then and, despite other classified storms looking worse at times, it had already been declassified and thus they had nothing to hang on to. It's the last day or so where the question lies, in my mind, on whether it gets a posthumous upgrade or not. Banding improved, the structure improved, and it was a close call. But, alas, it also was starting to head out to sea.

I would not be surprised to that last day added on to Andrea's lifecycle -- not unlike how the unnamed subtropical storm was added as it accelerated northeast -- but having said that, I also agree with how they handled it operationally. Alas, it's not a bad debate to have for May.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: andrea heading out [Re: Clark]
      #74821 - Wed May 16 2007 10:39 AM

Quote:

I would not be surprised to that last day added on to Andrea's lifecycle -- not unlike how the unnamed subtropical storm was added as it accelerated northeast -- but having said that, I also agree with how they handled it operationally. Alas, it's not a bad debate to have for May.




NHC is going to face tough critics for a while longer after 05'. There hasn't been nearly enough finger pointing for the American public to relax. Out of chaos comes order...perhaps there is a silver lining in it all that people will no longer take hurricanes for party events/time off work and school and head inland ahead of storms instead of waiting 24 hours before landfall.

Anyways:
Pretty tenacious for a weak May storm with fairly cool SST's. Slightly warmer than normal but still...lets hope this years storms are not as tenacious on the warmer SST's on their way. I would have thought all the dry air/ash firing off Florida would have given the remnants of Andrea a right hook to the jaw...

--------------------
Leave it to Accuweather to take the accuracy out of weather.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 837
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: andrea heading out [Re: Psyber]
      #74824 - Wed May 16 2007 01:29 PM

1:30 p.m. Sats and radar suggest that there is a broad low in the vicinity of Andros Is. and GBI. What say anybody else?

--------------------
doug


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1089
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: andrea heading out [Re: doug]
      #74826 - Wed May 16 2007 01:58 PM

Earlier today there was actually a LLC over the southern Bahamas, which has since been washed out - most likely due to all the shear over the region. Even Floater 1 was briefly being labeled "Invest".

Despite the washing out of a brief disturbance, this area remains of interest, as several models produce not one but two surface lows out of that broad trough over the course of the remainder of this week... the second one seems to be forecast to have better odds of staying over the >26c SSTs for a bit


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: andrea heading out [Re: doug]
      #74827 - Wed May 16 2007 02:07 PM

To my very nonscientific eye, looks like the area has become better organized over the am and early this
pm.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 423
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re:Future bahamas event [Re: Ed in Va]
      #74830 - Wed May 16 2007 02:54 PM

This area has become more pronounced. i do not see this being affected by shear at all as the appearance has obtained more of a circular look. Any idea what the SST is in that area?

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________2014 Forecast: 10/4/1________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 837
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: andrea heading out [Re: Ed in Va]
      #74831 - Wed May 16 2007 02:55 PM

my untrained eye picks up the signs of a vortex north north west of Andros. It may not be what I would call a LLC but there is some energy there...doesn't seem tropical however.

--------------------
doug


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1089
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re:Future bahamas event [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #74832 - Wed May 16 2007 03:48 PM

There is tremendous shear over the area. If your eyes are not yet trained to discern shear, you can always find a professional shear analysis here, from CIMSS. The hotter the color, the greater the shear. Basically, your yellows to oranges are unfavorable. Getting into the reds, brighter reds, hot pink and finally white is highly unfavorable to impossible (for tropical cyclones to form and/or survive).

Right now the high shear over the region is fanning the convection: showers and storms.. but preventing any kind of (tropical cyclone) organization from taking place. The shear will need to relax quite a bit before this area becomes hospitable.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re:Future bahamas event [Re: cieldumort]
      #74833 - Wed May 16 2007 03:55 PM

This is the beginnings of a late-season coastal low that should begin to move north and affecting New England and the related coastal waters over the next couple of days. Not a whole lot to worry about tropically, fortunately.

The ECMWF model, however, spit out something interesting for the long-range -- 5-10 days out -- time period in it's latest run. See this link for the details. This model is normally very reliable, the best out there in the medium- and long-range by far, and a friend of mine (and I) can't remember the last time we've ever seen it do something like this in May. It meets the basic test of lower pressures in the area prior to formation, but I really have a hard time believing the forecast given the month. Something worth watching, however.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re:Future bahamas event [Re: Clark]
      #74836 - Wed May 16 2007 05:22 PM

So is this the same area that the GFS is picking up on that they keep talking about in the HPC Caribbean Forecast Discussions?

Is that why they have the floater over that area now?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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FLGuy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Loc: South Florida
Re:Future bahamas event [Re: madmumbler]
      #74839 - Wed May 16 2007 06:57 PM

Is this the correct forum or thread for the discussion of possible storm development?

Check your PM's

Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed May 16 2007 06:59 PM)


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FLGuy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Loc: South Florida
Re:Future bahamas event [Re: FLGuy]
      #74840 - Wed May 16 2007 07:35 PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
259 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW FORMING NEAR THE
NORTH TIP OF ANDROS ISLAND. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS SHOWN WELL BY THE
NAM12 AND HAVE USED THE NAM12 AND DGEX FOR THE WINDS. THE NAM12 IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS40 WITH THE NEXT FRONT WHICH SHOULD PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LOW FORMING AND
MOVING NORTH

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMFL

Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed May 16 2007 08:58 PM)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re:Future bahamas event [Re: Clark]
      #74842 - Wed May 16 2007 08:49 PM

From tonight's 8:05pm NHC TWD:

Quote:

NOW OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS A SFC LOW
THAT THE NWP MODELS DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WHERE THERE IS
ALREADY AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SOME CYCLONIC
TURNING.




Can one of the mets please educate me? Is the NHC saying it's still showing in the models and has not yet developed, or are they saying that it IS developing in real time outside of the models?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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FLGuy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Loc: South Florida
Re:Future bahamas event [Re: madmumbler]
      #74843 - Wed May 16 2007 09:08 PM

There is a surface low in development north of Andros Island in the Bahamas. That's what is happening.

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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re:Site Rules and Forum Usage [Re: FLGuy]
      #74844 - Wed May 16 2007 09:56 PM

I believe Ed just did something like this (many times) but I feel the need to do it once again. Please, all users, old and new alike.... review the Rules section of this site and try to keep to the proper Forum as best possible.

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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2

Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed May 16 2007 09:58 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re:Future bahamas event [Re: madmumbler]
      #74845 - Wed May 16 2007 11:23 PM

Quote:

From tonight's 8:05pm NHC TWD:

Quote:

NOW OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS A SFC LOW
THAT THE NWP MODELS DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WHERE THERE IS
ALREADY AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SOME CYCLONIC
TURNING.




Can one of the mets please educate me? Is the NHC saying it's still showing in the models and has not yet developed, or are they saying that it IS developing in real time outside of the models?




That low has been in all of the models except for the GFS and is developing on schedule. It's not a tropical entity, however. The GFS developed something further south and west in Caribbean which isn't panning out. I wouldn't really trust the GFS right now for system formation purely in the tropics given the substantial changes they made to the model at the start of the month.

It's not the same as the feature that the ECMWF, among other models, is showing for down the line. I think most of the discussion on that is over in the Storm Forum, though.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2330
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Guidance [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #74849 - Thu May 17 2007 12:34 AM

Read the Forum Descriptions to determine where it is best to place your post.

For discussions on long-range model projections that suggest the development of a tropical or subtropical system, use the Forecast Lounge. A thread on the GFS model is currently active in that Forum.

For discussions about tropical features in the Atlantic Basin, i.e., the ITCZ or existing tropical waves, use The Tropics Today forum.

For Tropical Cyclones and Potential Development Areas (Invests), a thread will be started in the Storm Forum when appropriate.

Finally, note that you can only reply to the topics covered in existing Main Page articles. In other words, if your response concerns a topic that is not mentioned in the Main Page Leadoff Article (or Updates to that Article), then your post probably belongs somewhere else.

If your still uncertain as to where to post something, ask a Moderator for assistance via the PM capability.
ED


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2968
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re:Future bahamas event [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #74857 - Thu May 17 2007 07:21 AM

Hey all apparently there was some confusion last night. The low in the west Caribbean that everyone was talking about is just a forecast from some long range models. Much too wave mongerish for the front page, but ok for the lounge. There's a thread going on about it here

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Hurricane Preparedness Sales Tax Holiday correction [Re: MikeC]
      #74888 - Fri May 18 2007 11:28 AM

The information on the front page (which is the article this talkback is for) is slightly incorrect. It states the sales tax holiday is the first week of June. It actually extends from June 1 - to midnight, June 12.

I just received my flier from the FL Dep. of Revenue today in the mail.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.

Edited by madmumbler (Fri May 18 2007 11:29 AM)


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