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Archives >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 34
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #75156 - Thu May 31 2007 04:51 PM

On the Navy website, it appears as if we now have a defined COC as a band of clouds has now visibly wrapped itself around the center.
Navy Visible


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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN 36.26N 82.72W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #75157 - Thu May 31 2007 04:53 PM

Quote:

At this time, I would have to say that landfall will take place between Tampa and Fort Myers (similar to area where Charley hit in 2004). I do not believe this will make an extreme right into South Florida. Nonetheless, the rains will begin late tonight and should be steady through overnight Saturday. Right now, I believe the general rainfall totals will be anywhere from 2 to 5 inches. Could see more in the Keys and South Florida. Let the games begin. Nice to see Cat5orBust giving his thoughts on this system.




Don't jump the gun as we don't even have a depression yet and I am not entirerly convinced we will. Sit back and see what happens tonight and tomorrow we should have a better understanding of what this disturbed weather will do. :?:

--------------------


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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: Hurricane29]
      #75158 - Thu May 31 2007 04:53 PM

Quote:

I think those models right now need to be taken with caution cause we have to wait and see were the aircraft finally puts the center which can change the look of those models.





Not 100% sure, but recon. hasn't been confirmed I don't belive. Think they're just on stand-by.


WW-911


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: Ed in Va]
      #75159 - Thu May 31 2007 04:54 PM

I think the Canadian is very useful personally. It also shows trends such as a really strong high building into place in the later images that other models also exhibit. That high worries me more down the road than a mild Tropical Storm at best.. a very wet one in best case scenario.

Either way.. there is some look of something developing today and even a bit of rudementary bands.

Can it close off a low?

Would love to see what recon would show because the visible looks way better this afternoon than I would have thought from the way it looked this morning.

watching..

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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DJINFLA
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 26
Loc: Sebastian, FL 27.75N 80.54W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: weather_wise911]
      #75160 - Thu May 31 2007 05:03 PM

000
NOUS42 KNHC 311500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 31 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z JUNE 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-008

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 01/1600Z
D. 24.0N 87.0W
E. 01/1700 TO 01/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 02/1200Z
NEAR 27N 84W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

From the Plan of the Day for tomorrow....guess they're going out tomorrow morning?


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #75161 - Thu May 31 2007 05:04 PM

Quote:


Don't jump the gun as we don't even have a depression yet and I am not entirely convinced we will. Sit back and see what happens tonight and tomorrow we should have a better understanding of what this disturbed weather will do. :?:




Well, regardless of what it is or isn't classified as, it's going to (hopefully!!!) make landfall somewhere in Florida (hopefully!). I say hopefully because all the evidence up to this time points to it NOT intensifying to a strong storm. And dang it, we need the rain!

And yes I finally see the rotation on it. *LOL* But looking at the satellite loops compared with the model runs so far, I don't see what the west-ward pulling models are trending on. Looking at the trough, it sure looks like it's going to be Tampa or south (goody!).

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
tampa or south? [Re: madmumbler]
      #75162 - Thu May 31 2007 05:09 PM

well.. models aren't always reliable without the exact proper data to start with.. we are guessing at the center and recon will provide that missing piece of info, only the models run after that are more subject to reliability if you ask me.

Either way the "weather mass" of the system will spread across Southern Florida and hopefully the Lake.. depending on if it can pull itself together or not.. the rains will be on the right side no matter where the exact center goes.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
Re: tampa or south? [Re: LoisCane]
      #75163 - Thu May 31 2007 05:19 PM

Right Lois. The center really doesn't matter. Not even if it's named. The rain is what matters. As long as it stays west of the state the better chance of rain. The deep tropical moisture is almost all to the east of the system as alot of early systems tend to do because of upper shear. Hope for copious amount of rain for the lake the next couple of days.

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: tampa or south? [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #75164 - Thu May 31 2007 05:24 PM

Quote:

Hope for copious amount of rain for the lake the next couple of days.




The only problem with copious amounts of rainfall after a severe drought is flash flooding. AND the Lake O dike is not in the greatest of shape.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070531/ap_o...u2fNFev3KBg.3QA

So while we're doing a rain dance, if you're in a flash-flood area, keep your eyes open this weekend.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Re: tampa or south? [Re: madmumbler]
      #75166 - Thu May 31 2007 05:58 PM

its hard to pray for a small, slow deluge..

can't have it pour without some flooding

will hope for the best.. either way... should be a lot of rain

worse case scenario.. it revs up to a small hurricane and wraps and takes a track further to the left and comes in at the panhandle and the rain wraps and south florida, tampa and the lake don't get any

so..have to hope for the other scenario.. watch out for floods indeed

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #75167 - Thu May 31 2007 07:09 PM

Quote:

On the Navy website, it appears as if we now have a defined COC as a band of clouds has now visibly wrapped itself around the center.




I believe the band of clouds you are talking about is nothing more than daytime storms that fired up over the Yucatan that just happened to be near the COC.

Edited by CaneTrackerInSoFl (Thu May 31 2007 07:10 PM)


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: MikeC]
      #75169 - Thu May 31 2007 08:25 PM

From the 8 PM TAFB Discussion:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED 1005 MB...IS LOCATED
ABOUT 70 MI SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO AT 19N87W. THIS LOW SITS ALONG
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM NICARAGUA TO THE
SRN GULF. THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST DAY OR SO AND FOR THAT REASON THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER... MODELS SHOW THE LOW TRACKING N/NE INTO THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO ...A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR
NON-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF WHAT FORMS...TROPICAL OR
NON-TROPICAL ...ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS WRN
CUBA AND S FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PRESENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 87W-89W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FURTHER E OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N-21N
BETWEEN 83W-86W.

--------------------
RJB


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: Ron Basso]
      #75170 - Thu May 31 2007 08:35 PM

Looks like the NHC pulled the tropical disturbance notice at their 8pm update. Is that because they don't think it'll strengthen more?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 34
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: madmumbler]
      #75171 - Thu May 31 2007 09:07 PM

Take a look at the storms firing up over Honduras south of this disturbance. It appears as if Invest 92L has stolen some moisture and is beginning to win the battle over Babara. I have a strange feeling that when I wake up tomorrow AM, we may see a stronger, more well-defined system that will be developing overnight. Tonight will be very interesting.

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nc_wx_watcher
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 14
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #75172 - Thu May 31 2007 09:23 PM

I want to know also? So why at 8pm did they no longer have the special Topical Disturbance item listed on the NWS site?

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: madmumbler]
      #75173 - Thu May 31 2007 09:28 PM

Quote:

Looks like the NHC pulled the tropical disturbance notice at their 8pm update. Is that because they don't think it'll strengthen more?




I wondered the same thing myself, but I suspect it is just because they are either going to post an updated statement, or they're just of the opinion that the old one had been up long enough.


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #75174 - Thu May 31 2007 09:32 PM

Quote:

Take a look at the storms firing up over Honduras south of this disturbance. It appears as if Invest 92L has stolen some moisture and is beginning to win the battle over Babara. I have a strange feeling that when I wake up tomorrow AM, we may see a stronger, more well-defined system that will be developing overnight. Tonight will be very interesting.




Interesting how it's already blowing up when it's not even time for it to blow up lol.. Maybe we're in for a big surprise tommorrow morning. I see convection blowing up east of that center I was talking about earlier today. Looks like that's where the new center will be soon. We'll see what happens tonight.. recon is still a go at 2 p.m. June 1, 2007.. yep, the day the season starts and they're already gonna get to work!

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: allan]
      #75176 - Thu May 31 2007 10:08 PM

Yea,This blow up tonight is very impressive.It seems to really be getting it's act together.I can't get any pressure reading but I would assume it is dropping.I did not expect this tonight..It is indeed getting very interesting now.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: allan]
      #75177 - Thu May 31 2007 10:08 PM

The opportunities for this invest to develop are likely one the wane this evening.

Point 1.) The thunderstorm development mentioned in recent posts is impressive. However, for tropical development, you would really need to see this development happening closer to the center, which is up toward Cozumel. Thunderstormson the far out skirts, such as the ones over Central America (Hondorus) will not contribute to the spin up of a low level warm core center. Until something gets closer to the identified area of lowest pressures, this is likely a bust for tropical development.

Point 2.) Upper air wind analysis and water vapor would show that the most conducive area for development is around Jamaica. And the system is not there. More important than that fact is this one, the trough is now digging deeper into the western gulf. In this particular situation...the southwesterlies are identified as speeding up as they are moving across the Yucatan toward the invest. If this trend continues toward the Low, rain storms forming around the low pressure area near Cozumel will likely get lopped off at the knees. This can be identified by the change of direction in the cloud tops over the Yucatan Penninsula on the water vapor in recent hours (First Link zoomed image). On a wider angle the digging trough can be seenon the second link. Looks like the show is over for a true tropical/subtropical system on this one...Shear is gonna be on the increase now.
Floater WV Loop Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
Western Atlantic WV Loop Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

I know that I'm pretty excited to see heavy rain chances with little to no tropical development!

Edited by dem05 (Thu May 31 2007 10:12 PM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: dem05]
      #75178 - Thu May 31 2007 10:23 PM

Give it some time.Nature has a way of working on it's own time table.There could even be a new LLC.But for sure we should be watching this closely.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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