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Archives >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season
      #75111 - Thu May 31 2007 09:33 AM

11:30PM Update
See Clark's blog below for more information about this system.
Original Update
Tomorrow is the start of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and we are still watching an area in the Western Caribbean. Now being tracked as Invest 92L. It at least may bring rain to the Florida Peninsula later.

We'll be watching this as a possible opener for the new season. Some models have been predicting more than what we actually wound up with today, but still convection has flared up overnight. If this persists we may be tracking something soon. Florida potentially could get too much rain (well too much in a short period of time) depending on where the system winds up. But by the time it gets to Florida, the forward motion should be quicker, thus reducing the flash flood potential.

Model links at the bottom of the main page can give you an idea what is projected.

It is most likely going to remain a rain event, however, as the upper air environment isn't all that hot for development.. Also the stacking needed is just not there But still the chance for some tropical (or subtropical) development is there, it will need to be watched for persistence.


Hurricane Hunter Aircraft have been scheduled to check out this system tomorrow, if needed.



The east pacific already has Barbara, will the Atlantic catch up with another early storm? It may not wind up being purely tropical.

W. Caribbean Storm (92L) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L


stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Radar Loops
Key West, FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Miami, FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Tampa Bay/Ruskin, FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Cancun, MX Radar


Rainbow Enhancement GOM and W Caribbean

Main Page for the SSD satellite products is here.
NOAA SSD Tropical Satellite Page

More on the Links page


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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


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Loc: Greeneville, TN 36.26N 82.72W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: MikeC]
      #75112 - Thu May 31 2007 10:07 AM

Lot of showers on the east side of this storm. Looks ragged now but the CMC still has this storm getting its act together in another 24 hrs and making landfall right around were Alberto did last year. This is a good warm up practice before the big game starts tomorrow. Does anyone know where the center of this invest is currently?

--------------------


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


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Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #75113 - Thu May 31 2007 10:10 AM

My recollection from the past several years is that the CMC is pretty useless...????

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #75114 - Thu May 31 2007 10:12 AM

Quote:

Lot of showers on the east side of this storm. Looks ragged now but the CMC still has this storm getting its act together in another 24 hrs and making landfall right around were Alberto did last year. This is a good warm up practice before the big game starts tomorrow. Does anyone know where the center of this invest is currently?




The invest is centered near 19.6N 87.1W, which is about 60-65 miles south of Cozumel in Mexico.
Windshear is ok (around 10-20 knots) at least through Saturday, but I don't expect it to develop much.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: Ed in Va]
      #75115 - Thu May 31 2007 10:15 AM

You are correct ED....it is..but it does get some correct....like Ivan a few years ago.

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: scottsvb]
      #75116 - Thu May 31 2007 10:18 AM

Of course lets not forget Alberto.. it was awesome with that storm.. but anyways.. I think it will slowly drift north and may just MAY have enough energy and time before it reaches the gulf to become TD2 or even Barry. I think it will hit Florida Saturday night.. at least I hope.. I have a wedding to attend.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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HCW
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: allan]
      #75118 - Thu May 31 2007 10:27 AM

Jeff Masters on his weatherunderground blog says that shear will remain low untill Saturday under 10Kts. This could give it enough time to make it to a TD. The bad news is that this system needs to head for the panhandle and not south FL to bring rain to areas that really need it in North FL and GA. On a side note Dr Gray kept his numbers the same in his update that just came out .

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: HCW]
      #75119 - Thu May 31 2007 10:41 AM

Right now...its a 1006mb broad surface low. Winds near the center are pretty weak..only about 5-15mph. 25kt winds are way away from the center near the T-Storms. Alot of the circulation isnt at the surface also.

The system does have the chance to become TD 2 or even our next TS...we will see if it continues to organize. CMC model usually is a throw out model..as is the Nam...but GFS has had some convective feedback problems of late. I tend to use a blend of the ECMWF and the NOGAPS..(usually GFS).

Also a note...T-Storms will die off some today and refire later this evening..Tropical systems have a durational min during the mid day hours and max late at night. Kinda think of it as how its more humid at night then during the day. Now tonight we will see if the new storms that fire up will be close to the center. If so we might see a drop in pressure 3-4mb.


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: HCW]
      #75120 - Thu May 31 2007 10:42 AM

10-20kt windshear is not all that bad and could allow for a TD to develope.

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LisaC
Weather Watcher


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Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: HCW]
      #75121 - Thu May 31 2007 10:45 AM

Quote:

Jeff Masters on his weatherunderground blog says that shear will remain low untill Saturday under 10Kts. This could give it enough time to make it to a TD. The bad news is that this system needs to head for the panhandle and not south FL to bring rain to areas that really need it in North FL and GA. On a side note Dr Gray kept his numbers the same in his update that just came out .




The entire state of Florida needs water. Lake Oceechobee is almost at a record low. So unfortunately, i think this is Great news.


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


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Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: LisaC]
      #75122 - Thu May 31 2007 10:53 AM

HPC looks like they favor a track west of the GFS solution. From HPC morning discussion:

HIGH UNCERTAINTY EVEN IN THE SHORT RANGE LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THE EVOLUTION/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM FCST TO LIFT OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO NWD ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN
EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BUT WITH CONTINUING TIMING/TRACK
DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z-06Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE ON EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FCST ENVELOPE... WHILE THE CANADIAN IS AGAIN THE
FAST/STRONG WESTERN OUTLIER. BLENDING THE ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS
WITH THE NCEP MEAN (WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY TRACKED WEST OF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS SINCE THE 00Z WED RUNS) YIELDS AN
INTERMEDIATE TRACK THAT IS SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AND SIMILAR TO THE
HPC FCST OF THE PAST TWO DAYS. THE SLOW EAST MOVEMENT OF THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGH OUT OF THE OH VALLEY AND HIGH AMPLITUDE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A TRACK WEST OF THE GFS.

--------------------
RJB


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: Ron Basso]
      #75123 - Thu May 31 2007 11:04 AM

Recon ready for tommorow...


000
NOUS42 KNHC 311500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 31 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z JUNE 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-008

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 01/1600Z
D. 24.0N 87.0W
E. 01/1700 TO 01/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 02/1200Z
NEAR 27N 84W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS


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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 34
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: Hurricane29]
      #75124 - Thu May 31 2007 11:07 AM

If they are going to be sending out a plane tomorrow, the NHC should issue a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement.

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #75125 - Thu May 31 2007 11:15 AM

92L is really trying to gain a name today.. the circulation is impressive, banding is looking good. I think we may have a TD as early as tonight if it continues to do it's thing. The convection from this morning has died down YET is circulating east of this low and trying to take a tropical system look. So I guess the only thing to do is wait. Models should be out shortly on the system.. I mean the stringy looking ones lol.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 34
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: MikeC]
      #75126 - Thu May 31 2007 11:39 AM

What is the site for the SFWMD model plots? I have never been able to find the website. Thanks.

In addition, I have noticed from the latest visible imagery that this disturbance is forming a more well-defined COC. The banding features have become increasingly more organized and the storms have stuck around for the past 6 hours. This is going to be very interesting to watch.


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #75127 - Thu May 31 2007 11:45 AM

Quote:

What is the site for the SFWMD model plots? I have never been able to find the website. Thanks.

In addition, I have noticed from the latest visible imagery that this disturbance is forming a more well-defined COC. The banding features have become increasingly more organized and the storms have stuck around for the past 6 hours. This is going to be very interesting to watch.




Here you go...

Current TPC/NHC Model Plot


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bamacoast
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 1
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: allan]
      #75128 - Thu May 31 2007 11:53 AM

The structure of this system looks particularly impressive for the short time period that it has evolved. Once the system moves further northward, the southwest quadrant should become less influenced by the outflow of the Pacific tropical systems which appear to be weakening a bit at this point. Also, I do note some heavier convection close to the center on the northwest side near the tip of the Yucatan. I expect a TPC statement soon.

Edited by bamacoast (Thu May 31 2007 12:05 PM)


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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #75129 - Thu May 31 2007 11:57 AM

NHC has issued the Special Tropical Disturbance Statement:

000
WONT41 KNHC 311549
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1150 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF COZUMEL MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS
A NON-TROPICAL LOW. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE/BROWN


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: bamacoast]
      #75130 - Thu May 31 2007 11:57 AM

(duplicate post deleted)

A reminder that it is not necessary to post NHC bulletins since they are already available on the site. Short portions of a bulletin are okay to post if they help to illustrate a point that you are attempting to make.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu May 31 2007 07:48 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: Hurricane29]
      #75131 - Thu May 31 2007 11:57 AM

Quote:



Current TPC/NHC Model Plot




Note the links are all up in the main page article too, but I don't think the plot has been updated yet to anything, it may not for a few hours at least.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: MikeC]
      #75132 - Thu May 31 2007 12:10 PM

Pretty neat to see that there were 3 forecasters on the Statement issued.
Nice spin showing up... Having a time with the radar data from mexico.

Sat vis

WE NEED THE RAIN! based on the water vapor, Florida is about to get some!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: MikeC]
      #75133 - Thu May 31 2007 12:16 PM

Convection expanding...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb.jpg

Edited by danielw (Thu May 31 2007 03:08 PM)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
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Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: Hurricane29]
      #75134 - Thu May 31 2007 12:19 PM

I know that weather.com has in the forecast for Miami two straight days of rain starting tomorrow and I believe it is due to this system.


This is an interesting system to say the least. Didn't the GFS from last week prog a system possibly forming right there in the Northwestern Carribean yesterday or today?

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #75135 - Thu May 31 2007 12:23 PM

Key West Long Range RADAR showing mass of rain heading north toward the lower keys.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

--------------------
RJB


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
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Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: Ron Basso]
      #75136 - Thu May 31 2007 12:25 PM Attachment (199 downloads)

Cancun's Radar picture from now is attached to this post. So far, they aren't getting much in the way of rain.

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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #75137 - Thu May 31 2007 12:42 PM Attachment (273 downloads)

NHC graphic is atttached.


Edited by Hurricane29 (Thu May 31 2007 12:47 PM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 837
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: Hurricane29]
      #75138 - Thu May 31 2007 12:50 PM

I am interested in watching the progress of that energy digging south in the central GOM...Looks like a complex of convection that may get pulled into this developing system by its influence and the outflow from Barbara...This is beginning to look more like a closed cyclone than an open trough all the time and that energy may just be all it needs to complete the picture.

--------------------
doug


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Interested in watching the progress... [Re: doug]
      #75139 - Thu May 31 2007 01:35 PM

I agree.

You can see the consolidation taking place down in the WC/Yucatan Channel. It's getting that look of systems which form down there get. If 92L goes warmcore and gets to the surface, it could easily become a mid-grade tropical storm. At the same time, it would also be interesting if it evolved into a hybrid system given that the point of origin is purely tropical. Usually June systems tend to be unbalanced as they butt up against the sheer. Otherewise I'll save the hellos and pleasantries of "Welcome to 2007" because I don't want my post nixed by Ed "Post Master" Dunham.



Steve

(Welcome back - I'm sure glad that you didn't bother with the hellos and pleasantries!)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu May 31 2007 07:33 PM)


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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
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Loc: Greeneville, TN 36.26N 82.72W
Re: Interested in watching the progress... [Re: Steve]
      #75140 - Thu May 31 2007 01:41 PM

Here are some model runs I found:


--------------------


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Interested in watching the progress... [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #75141 - Thu May 31 2007 01:57 PM

NWS Tampa Bay Afternoon Disc:

SHORT RANGE (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUMP
UP AGAINST THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON FUTURE TRACK OF THIS LOW. 12Z NAM TAKES IT
NORTH ALL THE WAY TO THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST
RAINS JUST OFFSHORE. WHEREAS GFS HAS IT EJECTING NORTHEAST QUICKLY
EARLY SATURDAY. PREFER ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON MOVEMENT OF FEATURES ALOFT...KICKING THE UPPER LOW OUT OF
THE GULF BY 00Z SUNDAY AND HAVING IT MERGE INTO A LARGER CUTOFF
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...STILL EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN...1-2 INCHES
IF NOT A LITTLE MORE...TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE BEST RAIN CHANCES THEN. SHOULD SEE
LIGHT RAINS WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS CIRRUS CANOPY BUILDS
DOWN...SO POPS WILL BE HIGH FRIDAY BUT WITH LOWER QPFS. SW FLORIDA
MAY GET THE EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE BUT BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE COULD
KEEP CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA DRIER FRIDAY.

WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY...WHEREAS MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-THU)...WILL GENERALLY LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF
TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CROSSING CENTRAL FL SAT NIGHT INTO
LATE SUN WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN SAT NIGHT ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN.

--------------------
RJB


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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN 36.26N 82.72W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: MikeC]
      #75142 - Thu May 31 2007 02:13 PM

205pm update

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED 1006 MB...IS LOCATED
ABOUT 75 MI SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THIS LOW SITS ALONG AN
ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM NICARAGUA TO THE SRN
GULF. THIS LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS PRODUCING A BIG AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOSTLY ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOST ORGANIZED FROM 16N-23N
BETWEEN 79W-87W. KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME OF THIS
STRONGER ACTIVITY PULLING N INTO RADAR RANGE. THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO AND
FOR THAT REASON THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...MODELS SHOW THE LOW
TRACKING TO THE N/NE INTO A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHICH
WOULD FAVOR NON-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF WHAT
FORMS...TROPICAL OR NON-TROPICAL...ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR ACROSS WRN CUBA AND S FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

--------------------


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #75143 - Thu May 31 2007 02:16 PM

Consensus of the various global model runs seems to be focused now on a low pressure track through Tampa Bay NE across to Daytona Beach.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

--------------------
RJB


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: MikeC]
      #75144 - Thu May 31 2007 02:18 PM

I have not seen much this day to suade my thinking away from a system destined to less than pure tropical form in the longer run...

Currently, a 1005mb low is being depicted:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html ...then, click on "NWS Fronts" checkbox.

This loop clearly demonstrates, particularly in the last several frames, that a cyclonic motion in the cloud parsels has evolved during the late morning and early afternoons; my best "guesstimate" would place that axis of rotation somewhat NNE of the NWS Front product's low position. (I am aware that others may have other sources).

It is possible that a depression is getting going at this time. If you click on the "HDW-high" checkbox, the upper level winds directly over the NWS Front low position are 5 to 10 kts in a weakly diffluent field. There is a much more obvious diffluence axis along 83W by 20N, but the current potential spin up does not appear to be physically connected to that feature. What may not be readily observed by the untrained eye is that there is a different form of diffluence in the region near 21.5N by 86W.

First, if you look up along 86W by 22.5N, there are numerous 40 to 55kt winds entering the Gulf from the south. Now, if you look back along where the axis of rotation is, note those upper level winds are much, much lighter. The intermediate region between these lighter winds, and that of the stronger winds just to the north, is commonly referred to as an "exit jet region". This causes a lift assist, or a fluid dynamic process that helps to excite upward vertical motion. When that upward vertical motion persists for a certain length of time, the converging winds nearer to the surface will finally have integrated enough coriolis momentum to begin responding to that virtual force. Rotation ensues...

Not intending to delve too deeply into speculation here but it is quite plausible in my mind that the current cyclonic gyration amid the convergence at the surface is at least in part a response to this transient (temporary) jet configuration existing just to the north. The upward vertical motion that responded to this form of diffluence, triggered better surface convergence.

Be that as it may, and may indeed help a depression to be formed in that region, the governing synoptic points covered in the last thread by Clark, HF and myself have not changed. The pattern on whole over the eastern U.S. and adjacent Gulf is going through a period of amplification, featuring trough tendencies at lower latitudes. That is why a band of stronger mid and upper level westerlies can be noted extending SW to NE through just to the north of the Yuc. Penn. Any evolution or changing in the regional jet configurations is slated to do so quite slowly over the next day and a half. That means that spatially, this system has very limited wiggle room in the nearer terms. A drift toward the north precariously involves it in these westerlies and that is in fact bodily what the majority of the guidance is suggesting. Once that motion ensues, I do not see this developing very well because it will only mean shear ever increasing.

Again, it is possible also that if the system were to assume a NE motion along the wind vectors at greater speeds, this relative motion would reduce the impactive wind velocities, thus reduction in shear. That may allow some intensification to take place, but still not ideally so... That result would more likely be a tilted system, where the typical structure is heavy rain/thunder extending northeast along a quasi-warm frontal trough, with a partially exposed surface circulation on the southwestern edge of the deeper convection. That is quite common in these situations quite frankly.

The other aspect is that with stronger and coherent jet structures involved, that would also force baroclinic dynamics in the maelstrom. The cyclone phase state will transition to baroclinic as it cross Florida and gets embedded in the larger scale circulation of the eastern U.S. trough.

It is important to keep in mind that these phase state changes take place along a spectrum. As this system crosses Florida, the ECM is in fact developing a fairly potent and compact coastal system up along and just off the Mid Atlantic in the 00Z run. If this were to verify, there will be a plume of latent heat drawn up out of the tropics; even though the system has taken on baroclinic characteristics along its route this may be detected by interesting satellite presentations, as well as ground truth. ...The 12Z ECM is due out any time now... This models has been the most consistent with the track guidance and ultimately also is about down the middle of the envelope. It thus seems reasonable to assess it as the most likely course, so the new run will be interesting.

[EDIT] -- I forgot to mention... This system will likely be moving right along by the time its most likely impact is felt, over Florida. For this, I do not believe "excessive" rains will take place. However, it will certainly rain quite hard for few hours. Flash flooding is always a concern, even in very dry antecedent conditions that is true; a ton of rain in a short period of time might simply exceed absorption rates. Overall, however, this may prove more beneficial than destructive as far as the flood concern goes...

John

Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu May 31 2007 02:20 PM)


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scottsvb
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Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: scottsvb]
      #75146 - Thu May 31 2007 02:43 PM

I think what we are missing is the fact that this system isnt stacked up. We have a LLC just south of Cozumel...a midlevel center to its NE ..just south of the western tip of Cuba..and a upper ridge closer to Honduras and Jamaica. My basic quick reasoning is for this LLC to not develop much at all and head slowly north...while the midlevel center becomes better established and takes over and crosses Sw Florida from Ft Myers-Tampa Bay and develops further as a baroclonic low north of the bahamas.

I favor the 12Z run of the GFS...along with and just north of the 12Z GFDL... the current LLC will weaken later Friday into Saturday as the subtropical or baroclonic low forms Friday off the NW tip of Cuba and heads NNE.

This could be a subtropical storm off SW florida by later Friday night. Winds could still reach 50-60mph..but this wont be fully tropical.
scottsvb


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allan
Weather Master


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Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: scottsvb]
      #75148 - Thu May 31 2007 03:40 PM Attachment (213 downloads)

There's it goes again.. strong convection over the "possible" new LLC.. nice little hook there to..
Anyways.. the attachment is up there if you want to check it out. I have no idea what this thing is up to but I have a feeling a surprise is waiting for us sometime late tonight or tommorrrow, keep in mind.. this is normal for convection to die down in the daytime. It's overnight that surprises like Alberto, Andrea, and that one invest area last year that went through the islands in September. So lets not call a death threat and give it a day or so.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Tony Cristaldi
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Re: Interested in watching the progress... [Re: Ron Basso]
      #75149 - Thu May 31 2007 03:48 PM


Since I'm not at work, here's what the crew at the office wrote about the system this afternoon...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMLB&max=10


...BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH A
CONTINUATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LOW TEMPS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST COAST IN THE LOWER 70S. MODELS SHOW LOW
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVERNIGHT
THOUGH GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH DEEPENING TREND BY 00Z. SHOULD STILL
SEE CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT WITH A SLGT CHC FOR A LATE NIGHT
SHOWER ACROSS SRN SECTIONS.

FRIDAY...HAVE FOLLOWED HPC`S LEAD AND TRENDED SLOWER THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS MOVING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO E CENTRAL FL. BELIEVE
THE SFC LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD (SIMILAR TO HPC/ECM PROGS) BUT SHOULD SPREAD SOME RAIN
INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PM HOURS. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SRN AREAS AND GOOD CHC NRN SECTIONS.
ALSO...TRENDED ABOVE GFS MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE LWR-MID 80S WITH
BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES. STILL A DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON STRENGTH OF UPPER LVL TROUGH IN THE GULF WITH
GFS SHOWING 100KTS+ ACROSS THE NE GULF DRIVING ADDITIONAL DEEP LAYER
LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL FL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH FOR THE SPEED/TRACK OF MOISTURE LIFTING N/NE
FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ERN CUBA AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT MAY DEVELOP.

FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...MODELS STILL EXHIBITING A LARGE AMOUNT OF
DISPARITY WITH REGARD TO THE HYBRID SYSTEM NEAR THE YUCATAN...MAINLY
DUE TO PROBLEMS WITH INITIALIZATION AND THE EFFECT OF QPF ON THE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. MOST APPROPRIATE COURSE OF ACTION
CONTINUES TO BE A CONSENSUS APPROACH...WHICH FOLLOWS THE GENERAL
TRACK OF THE ECMWF. NAM-WRF CONTINUES TO BE A LEFT OUTLIER AND WILL
BE DISREGARDED. GFS IS LIKELY TOO FAST AND TOO FAR TO THE RIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FRI
EVENING-SAT MORNING (ASSUMING ECMWF TIMING) AS THE SLUG OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. SREF
SUGGESTS HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE...WHICH NO DOUBT WILL BE
BENEFICIAL TO THE DROUGHT SITUATION. THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE ELEVATED FRI NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE
NORTHWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST
DYNAMICS PUSHING OFFSHORE...ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN (BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH) AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.


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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: MikeC]
      #75150 - Thu May 31 2007 04:07 PM

certainly an interesting start to a potentially active season. it certainly looks like it is attempting to get its act together. the cloud envelope looks as though it is trying to form some structure. unless it really gets organized i dont think we will see the NHC pull the trigger on a classified system ( depression ) this evening. on the other hand though, if they wait until the aircraft reports back tomorrow they will have to scramble up some potential watches or warnings quickly for logistic reasons ( if it warrants ) as this has the potential to start impacting FL as early as tomorrow night. it will also be interesting to see the next set of model runs because i think that some of the plots take this too far west into the panhandle. i think the flow will push it no further north and west than say the tampa area. too early to tell and obviously we will have a much better handle on this system at some point tomorrow.

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Ron Basso
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Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #75151 - Thu May 31 2007 04:20 PM

Latest model runs shifting a little more toward the FL big bend region for the track. 12Z NOGAPS now shows a panhandle landfall.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_92.gif

--------------------
RJB


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cchsweatherman
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Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #75152 - Thu May 31 2007 04:35 PM

At this time, I would have to say that landfall will take place between Tampa and Fort Myers (similar to area where Charley hit in 2004). I do not believe this will make an extreme right into South Florida. Nonetheless, the rains will begin late tonight and should be steady through overnight Saturday. Right now, I believe the general rainfall totals will be anywhere from 2 to 5 inches. Could see more in the Keys and South Florida. Let the games begin. Nice to see Cat5orBust giving his thoughts on this system.

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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


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Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #75153 - Thu May 31 2007 04:43 PM

I think those models right now need to be taken with caution cause we have to wait and see were the aircraft finally puts the center which can change the look of those models.

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cchsweatherman
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Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #75156 - Thu May 31 2007 04:51 PM

On the Navy website, it appears as if we now have a defined COC as a band of clouds has now visibly wrapped itself around the center.
Navy Visible


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hurricaneguy
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Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #75157 - Thu May 31 2007 04:53 PM

Quote:

At this time, I would have to say that landfall will take place between Tampa and Fort Myers (similar to area where Charley hit in 2004). I do not believe this will make an extreme right into South Florida. Nonetheless, the rains will begin late tonight and should be steady through overnight Saturday. Right now, I believe the general rainfall totals will be anywhere from 2 to 5 inches. Could see more in the Keys and South Florida. Let the games begin. Nice to see Cat5orBust giving his thoughts on this system.




Don't jump the gun as we don't even have a depression yet and I am not entirerly convinced we will. Sit back and see what happens tonight and tomorrow we should have a better understanding of what this disturbed weather will do. :?:

--------------------


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weather_wise911
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Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: Hurricane29]
      #75158 - Thu May 31 2007 04:53 PM

Quote:

I think those models right now need to be taken with caution cause we have to wait and see were the aircraft finally puts the center which can change the look of those models.





Not 100% sure, but recon. hasn't been confirmed I don't belive. Think they're just on stand-by.


WW-911


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Loc: South Florida
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: Ed in Va]
      #75159 - Thu May 31 2007 04:54 PM

I think the Canadian is very useful personally. It also shows trends such as a really strong high building into place in the later images that other models also exhibit. That high worries me more down the road than a mild Tropical Storm at best.. a very wet one in best case scenario.

Either way.. there is some look of something developing today and even a bit of rudementary bands.

Can it close off a low?

Would love to see what recon would show because the visible looks way better this afternoon than I would have thought from the way it looked this morning.

watching..

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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DJINFLA
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 26
Loc: Sebastian, FL 27.75N 80.54W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: weather_wise911]
      #75160 - Thu May 31 2007 05:03 PM

000
NOUS42 KNHC 311500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 31 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z JUNE 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-008

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 01/1600Z
D. 24.0N 87.0W
E. 01/1700 TO 01/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 02/1200Z
NEAR 27N 84W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

From the Plan of the Day for tomorrow....guess they're going out tomorrow morning?


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #75161 - Thu May 31 2007 05:04 PM

Quote:


Don't jump the gun as we don't even have a depression yet and I am not entirely convinced we will. Sit back and see what happens tonight and tomorrow we should have a better understanding of what this disturbed weather will do. :?:




Well, regardless of what it is or isn't classified as, it's going to (hopefully!!!) make landfall somewhere in Florida (hopefully!). I say hopefully because all the evidence up to this time points to it NOT intensifying to a strong storm. And dang it, we need the rain!

And yes I finally see the rotation on it. *LOL* But looking at the satellite loops compared with the model runs so far, I don't see what the west-ward pulling models are trending on. Looking at the trough, it sure looks like it's going to be Tampa or south (goody!).

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
tampa or south? [Re: madmumbler]
      #75162 - Thu May 31 2007 05:09 PM

well.. models aren't always reliable without the exact proper data to start with.. we are guessing at the center and recon will provide that missing piece of info, only the models run after that are more subject to reliability if you ask me.

Either way the "weather mass" of the system will spread across Southern Florida and hopefully the Lake.. depending on if it can pull itself together or not.. the rains will be on the right side no matter where the exact center goes.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru


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Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
Re: tampa or south? [Re: LoisCane]
      #75163 - Thu May 31 2007 05:19 PM

Right Lois. The center really doesn't matter. Not even if it's named. The rain is what matters. As long as it stays west of the state the better chance of rain. The deep tropical moisture is almost all to the east of the system as alot of early systems tend to do because of upper shear. Hope for copious amount of rain for the lake the next couple of days.

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
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Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: tampa or south? [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #75164 - Thu May 31 2007 05:24 PM

Quote:

Hope for copious amount of rain for the lake the next couple of days.




The only problem with copious amounts of rainfall after a severe drought is flash flooding. AND the Lake O dike is not in the greatest of shape.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070531/ap_o...u2fNFev3KBg.3QA

So while we're doing a rain dance, if you're in a flash-flood area, keep your eyes open this weekend.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Loc: South Florida
Re: tampa or south? [Re: madmumbler]
      #75166 - Thu May 31 2007 05:58 PM

its hard to pray for a small, slow deluge..

can't have it pour without some flooding

will hope for the best.. either way... should be a lot of rain

worse case scenario.. it revs up to a small hurricane and wraps and takes a track further to the left and comes in at the panhandle and the rain wraps and south florida, tampa and the lake don't get any

so..have to hope for the other scenario.. watch out for floods indeed

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


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Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #75167 - Thu May 31 2007 07:09 PM

Quote:

On the Navy website, it appears as if we now have a defined COC as a band of clouds has now visibly wrapped itself around the center.




I believe the band of clouds you are talking about is nothing more than daytime storms that fired up over the Yucatan that just happened to be near the COC.

Edited by CaneTrackerInSoFl (Thu May 31 2007 07:10 PM)


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 267
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Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: MikeC]
      #75169 - Thu May 31 2007 08:25 PM

From the 8 PM TAFB Discussion:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED 1005 MB...IS LOCATED
ABOUT 70 MI SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO AT 19N87W. THIS LOW SITS ALONG
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM NICARAGUA TO THE
SRN GULF. THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST DAY OR SO AND FOR THAT REASON THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER... MODELS SHOW THE LOW TRACKING N/NE INTO THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO ...A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR
NON-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF WHAT FORMS...TROPICAL OR
NON-TROPICAL ...ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS WRN
CUBA AND S FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PRESENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 87W-89W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FURTHER E OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N-21N
BETWEEN 83W-86W.

--------------------
RJB


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


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Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: Ron Basso]
      #75170 - Thu May 31 2007 08:35 PM

Looks like the NHC pulled the tropical disturbance notice at their 8pm update. Is that because they don't think it'll strengthen more?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher


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Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: madmumbler]
      #75171 - Thu May 31 2007 09:07 PM

Take a look at the storms firing up over Honduras south of this disturbance. It appears as if Invest 92L has stolen some moisture and is beginning to win the battle over Babara. I have a strange feeling that when I wake up tomorrow AM, we may see a stronger, more well-defined system that will be developing overnight. Tonight will be very interesting.

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nc_wx_watcher
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #75172 - Thu May 31 2007 09:23 PM

I want to know also? So why at 8pm did they no longer have the special Topical Disturbance item listed on the NWS site?

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: madmumbler]
      #75173 - Thu May 31 2007 09:28 PM

Quote:

Looks like the NHC pulled the tropical disturbance notice at their 8pm update. Is that because they don't think it'll strengthen more?




I wondered the same thing myself, but I suspect it is just because they are either going to post an updated statement, or they're just of the opinion that the old one had been up long enough.


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allan
Weather Master


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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #75174 - Thu May 31 2007 09:32 PM

Quote:

Take a look at the storms firing up over Honduras south of this disturbance. It appears as if Invest 92L has stolen some moisture and is beginning to win the battle over Babara. I have a strange feeling that when I wake up tomorrow AM, we may see a stronger, more well-defined system that will be developing overnight. Tonight will be very interesting.




Interesting how it's already blowing up when it's not even time for it to blow up lol.. Maybe we're in for a big surprise tommorrow morning. I see convection blowing up east of that center I was talking about earlier today. Looks like that's where the new center will be soon. We'll see what happens tonight.. recon is still a go at 2 p.m. June 1, 2007.. yep, the day the season starts and they're already gonna get to work!

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


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Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: allan]
      #75176 - Thu May 31 2007 10:08 PM

Yea,This blow up tonight is very impressive.It seems to really be getting it's act together.I can't get any pressure reading but I would assume it is dropping.I did not expect this tonight..It is indeed getting very interesting now.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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dem05
User


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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: allan]
      #75177 - Thu May 31 2007 10:08 PM

The opportunities for this invest to develop are likely one the wane this evening.

Point 1.) The thunderstorm development mentioned in recent posts is impressive. However, for tropical development, you would really need to see this development happening closer to the center, which is up toward Cozumel. Thunderstormson the far out skirts, such as the ones over Central America (Hondorus) will not contribute to the spin up of a low level warm core center. Until something gets closer to the identified area of lowest pressures, this is likely a bust for tropical development.

Point 2.) Upper air wind analysis and water vapor would show that the most conducive area for development is around Jamaica. And the system is not there. More important than that fact is this one, the trough is now digging deeper into the western gulf. In this particular situation...the southwesterlies are identified as speeding up as they are moving across the Yucatan toward the invest. If this trend continues toward the Low, rain storms forming around the low pressure area near Cozumel will likely get lopped off at the knees. This can be identified by the change of direction in the cloud tops over the Yucatan Penninsula on the water vapor in recent hours (First Link zoomed image). On a wider angle the digging trough can be seenon the second link. Looks like the show is over for a true tropical/subtropical system on this one...Shear is gonna be on the increase now.
Floater WV Loop Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
Western Atlantic WV Loop Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

I know that I'm pretty excited to see heavy rain chances with little to no tropical development!

Edited by dem05 (Thu May 31 2007 10:12 PM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


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Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: dem05]
      #75178 - Thu May 31 2007 10:23 PM

Give it some time.Nature has a way of working on it's own time table.There could even be a new LLC.But for sure we should be watching this closely.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #75179 - Thu May 31 2007 10:34 PM

Doug made a few very good points. I already stated this afternoon what I feel will happen...and right now..alot of people are giving this hype more then really what it is. Right now...there is a disorganized tropical low near Cozumel.....for this to intensify...we need development near the center.

Now with that said...I feel as though a new center will form as a subtropical (at first) low in the SE Gulf later on Friday...and move NNE towards W Central Florida. Winds will be around 40-50mph in the heavier rain areas.,,but generally 15-30mph. This storm will then take more of a baroclinic low off of Florida and head NE. The current low will mingle over the southern gulf and fade out by Sunday. They may or may not send a plane into this on Friday.

scottsvb


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #75182 - Thu May 31 2007 11:08 PM

On further satellite analysis and deeper insight, the opportunity to give this the benifit of the doubt for true tropical and/or subtropical development. It is just not there.

1.) Going back to the Water Vapor Floater (Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html) Click on the following on the menu bar at the top of the image: Lat-Lon and HDW-High. Use the Lattitude and Longitude to locate the following approximate coordinates: 20.0N and 92.5W then 25N and 85W. Along this line you will notice a blue streak of clouds. This is along the line of maximum Southwesterly shear and the HDW-High wind barbs indicate winds on the order of 30-50 knots. This is no good, especially considering the close proximity and the fact that the trough is digging closer.

2.) Low level center reformation: The opportunity for this low to reform farther south does not exist because of the following observations a.) The southerly flow between "convective area A" South of Cuba and"Convective Area B" iswell established.(Note the band looking features oriented from North to south between the two.
Wide Image Shortwave Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html
Closeup Shortwave: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html
The gap may fill with thunderstorms, but the prevailing southerly flow which is resulting from a combination of the low near Cozumel and the trades from the Carribean will not allow for reformation under these thundersotrms.In fact these thunderstorms are the result of an interaction between conflicting weather systems. Finally, if intense thunderstorms were existing asthey should in this case...in "this neck of the woods"...any low pressure reformation would likely occur Northeastward in this type of environment. Where the low literally chases the thunderstorms as they try to peel away. Two perfect examples of this baroclinic type of event are HurricaneEarlin1998 and Tropical Storm Gabrielle in 2001. On thisone,thet-storms areon the south and east side, sothe reformation appears moot.

3.) On the trough digging south, as a tutorial for future systems that may develop in June or July this year out of the NW Carribean or Eastern GOMex.,this pattern would have been more favorable for development (once in the Gulf) if this had been a southward digging or Southwestward digging cutoff low (Say around the BOC or west of that) versus a trough like we have now. The eastern gulf would have been in a more favorable/marginal outflow/diffluent flow. The other idea is to watch for a trough the has its axis at 95W or slightly further west during June or July. This one is at about 90W, and the gulf isn't big enough for the two of these features.

With that said, once again, some drought busting help is on the way. YEAH!!!!

Edited by dem05 (Thu May 31 2007 11:50 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: dem05]
      #75184 - Thu May 31 2007 11:33 PM

I've added a long-winded (the best kind ) discussion in a new blog entry (see main page or "Met Blogs" on the left sidebar) about this disturbance. The quick summary is that I expect hybrid development with good rains over a broad area from this one. I don't think there's enough there right now to really support tropical development -- though it's not out of the realm of possibility yet that it doesn't get named...all depends on what recon finds in terms of temperatures at the inner core.

Comments and suggestions are welcome. I can't guarantee I'll be able to provide another full update like that, but I'll try to provide shorter updates at later times.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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CoconutCandy
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: Clark]
      #75191 - Fri Jun 01 2007 08:29 AM

Good Morning All,

It would seem that the 'center' of circulation is just now coming onto the long-range radar out of Key West.

There is a thunderstorm that shows up quite nicely on the radar loop, that is just NE of the apparent center.

But it's not the supercell type (-80 degrees and colder), and most of the convective banding that is developing is well away from the center of circulation, suggesting more of a sub-tropical appearance.

I suggest that it will become sub-tropical, at best, as the shear is only going to get stronger with time.

But! The GREAT news is that Florida is going to get the good soaking it deserves.

At last! I think there will be more than a few people dancing in the rain, so to speak.

Here's wishing everyone an interesting and Safe! '07 Hurricane Season. Be Prepared!


- Coconut Candy

--------------------
"Don't Get Stuck on Stupid" - General Honore, following Hurricane Katrina


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