LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Or did the center everyone is currently talking about jump a lot?
Seems to me it's moving a bit too fast to organize..
Did hear talk that a part of this energy might sit around and form into another storm possibly.. guess we will have to wait and see.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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they might just call it Barry...or Subtropical Barry....just matters on what recon finds with their data. We know we have the winds and pressure of a TS but there are other things that go along with it. Also it will continue to strengthn with low 80s water temps and it has 24-30hrs with tonights durational max.Its tropical but picking up baroclincal characterists..and thats making it stronger and better organized.
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Ronn
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
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The system is already on the move and will produce a 36-48 hour rain event for Florida, with some tropical storm force winds on the west coast. NWS Tampa believes that the center will be west of Tampa by Saturday afternoon. We can probably expect landfall in the Big Bend on Sunday. I am impressed by the way this system has developed today. I am fairly confident that we will see Barry classified soon. I agree with scott that the baroclinic environment will actually help strengthen this system as a hybrid storm...not uncommon early and late in the season for the Gulf of Mexico.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Well, recon is on its way, at 25.1N and 86.8W in the last report I saw. Based upon visible satellite imagery, I'd place the center just south of 24N and along 86W right now, so I imagine they will fly NW-SE across the center for their first leg. It's not so much critical what sort of winds they find in the disturbance (marginal TD/TS it seems right now) as it is the temperature profile. The plane is flying a low-level mission about 1000ft off the surface of the ocean, where it is most likely to find a warm-core structure. If it finds one there, don't be surprised to see some sort of designation at 5p. It may also pull up to about 850 or 700mb to gauge the thermal structure and nature of the circulation there to help with that designation. Either way, it doesn't change what we can expect from this thing -- rain.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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looks like recon did the first pass by, through what looks like an open low center.... winds look to be right around 35mph at surface. see models are coming into a better agreement this afternoon. more toward the big bend are of florida, like last years storm. The low out in the upper midwest seems to be the deciding factor again with our first system of the season. There is just so much shear, its going to be interesting what they find. I expect the may find TS force winds, but will the name it? If the current shear over the center holds, i would expect the low to be clearly seen the rest of the day! One thing is sure, rain is on the way for most of the state. MUCH NEED RAIN!!!
Sat Vis
Lowest pressure i have seen is a 1004mb from recon. Winds 35mphs?
*latest Pressure i see now is 1003mb.. looks like there was no vortex drop as of yet. on the 11 obs now
***Check out the new http://www.hurricanehunters.com/ web site!!!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Jun 01 2007 03:02 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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I edited the main post with the basics of what recon found, but here's the vortex message:
URNT12 KNHC 011912
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/18:58:40Z
B. 23 deg 55 min N
085 deg 45 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 45 kt
E. 222 deg 011 nm
F. 329 deg 052 kt
G. 221 deg 011 nm
H. EXTRAP 1000 mb
I. 22 C/ 305 m
J. 24 C/ 305 m
K. / C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF307 01BBA INVEST OB 11
MAX FL WIND 52 KT SW QUAD 18:55:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
I've bolded the two key points. The first one deals with maximum flight level winds, at about 1000ft aloft. 52kt isn't too shabby and is still TS force when you reduce them to the surface. More importantly, that wind came just 11 n. mi. from the center -- a hallmark of a tropical cyclone.
The second one deals with the thermal structure. Recon found temperatures at low levels 2C warmer at the center than outside of it, suggesting a warm-core structure and potential subtropical/tropical system. Given the wind data, I think we'll see a tropical storm out of this.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Latest recon has estimated max surface winds at 45 knots and the pressure (extrapolated) at 1000 millibars. Max flight level winds at 52 knots.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Folks.. I want to calmy introduce our new TROPICAL STORM BARRY! Don't believe me? Check the nvy and try to find 92L...
Anyways, I had a feeling all day that they would go ahead and pull the triger and guess what the other thing is.......
It's heading straight here!
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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02L.NONAME
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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02LNONAME.40kts-1000mb-237N-855W.10O
would expect a statement to be issued shortly, based on it being so close to land... AKA in the southern Gulf of Mexico.... and would expect the 5pm adv to have warnings and watches of TS to be up, mainly on the west coast of fla. a heavy rain maker, like clark said!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Jun 01 2007 03:53 PM)
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Big time blowup on the Northern side of the COC. (See attached).
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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West FL Jess
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa Bay
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on the Weather Channel they just said Hurricane Hunters reported winds up to 60mph at 500ft...
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~jess~
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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i find it odd that with 45 mph winds at least that still has it as a depression
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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just looking at vis on that... and our system is right over what would be the loop current. if this was july or later... it be an whole different story, but it is not and this is going to be such a fast moving system, that it wont have any of the ideal condiditons to do anything but bring some good moisture to the state.. and maybe some moderate winds as of right now. SHEAR and the trough!
Agree with clark.. been looking at the HDOB from AF307.... and the drops... Warm core would point to a tropical system, with what the winds they are finding.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Given what we're seeing now on satellite and in the recon data, I strongly believe that we need to discount the majority of the model guidance at this point. None of the models have nearly as well-defined of a system as we presently have, making their tracks and depictions suspect since they tend to jump the low center around more than can probably be expected at this point.
Satellite loops suggest that the storm is moving just slightly east of due north right now, maybe 010 degrees. The vort max in the Gulf is currently centered in the N. Gulf SSW of New Orleans and is nearly stationary or drifting slowly toward the east. Long-term loops suggest no significant movement despite influences from last night's upstream MCS and a strong Pacific jet across the SW US. It's quite possible that the convection associated with our disturbance/storm is trying to amplify the ridging downstream just slightly, potentially providing a slight hindrance to this feature moving more easterly at this point. It, along with the movement of the storm to the north, is probably also reducing the storm-relative shear over the storm.
Steering flow in the mid-levels and extrapolation of the vort max would suggest that not much has changed to my threat regions outlined from last night, specifically from the Big Bend to about Crystal River. If forced to choose, I would go very near Cedar Key. This is west of most of the earlier model guidance. It will be interesting to see what the does at 5p in terms of track and watches/warnings. Intensity? Moderate TS is still the thinking, probably peaking off-shore overnight and then weakening near landfall due to cooler SSTs (unless it gets a significant baroclinic boost).
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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I am amazed and shocked that the did such a good job on this system. I expect us to have sub tropical storm Barry at 5pm and watches and warnings will be up for for parts of FL. A big bend landfall is the best possible thing cause it will bring much needed to rain to most of Fl and Ga. Let's just hope the shear holds this thing in check and we don't get any suprises. It's starting to look more impressive by the minute
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES19252007152iCbhvb.jpg
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Regardless of whether it's subtropical or tropical, it was pretty clear that Barry-to-be had that Western Caribbean "look" to it that loiscane talks about a lot yesterday. I had it progged somewhere between Tampa and the Big Bend possibly as high as a midgrade (sub)tropical storm. I think that holds. There may be some gusts to the north and east of the system of up to 60mph before all is said and done, but mostly it's going to be a great rainmaker for the Sunshine State. You guys need it.
So far, not much has made the "storm totals" on the radars unless you jog down to the Key West doppler site. Here's the link.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=byx&product=NTP&overlay=11101111&loop=no
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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I just checked the key west radar when you posted it. I was hoping for more of the yellow and red over land. It doesn't mean much over water. But I guess I'll take any drops. Hope the Lake gets a foot of rain. Your right steve about track. Should start bending a little more east before landfall. Hopefully Florida will get more systems like this and no Hurricanes this year. 
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Agreed lonny. I'm thinking a general 1-2" swath with some up to 5". One thing about doppler estimates is they can also underestimate rainfall. People make a big deal out of the fact that they sometimes overestimate rainfall totals, but they can also underestimate them in weak systems. Some of that rainfall just isn't picked up. At least it looks like a good stretch of .3-.6" so far in South Florida. And if you look at the actual radar, there's plenty more where that came from. So far it's just a "trace" in most of the rest of the Peninsula but that should be changing overnight and tomorrow. Maybe this will clamp down on the fire threats and at least start the process of getting some of those water levels back to normal again.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN
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Welcome Barry!
...TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON
BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
KEATON BEACH TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 320
MILES...520 KM...SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 235 MILES...
375 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
BARRY REACHES THE COAST.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF BARRY MAKES LANDFALL.
BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
Edited by hurricaneguy (Fri Jun 01 2007 04:38 PM)
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