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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico
      #75248 - Fri Jun 01 2007 06:04 PM

10AM Saturday Update
Tropical Storm Barry looked more subtropical for a time last night, however, the low level circulation center has remained intact and convection is again beginning to build just north of the center. Barry is now moving northeast at about 15mph and the storm should make landfall in the Tampa Bay area prior to 11am. Barry will move across the state taking a northeast to north northeast direction with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds near the center are 45 to 50mph and the storm is likely to maintain winds of 35 to 40mph near the center as it crosses the Florida peninsula.

A developing feeder band extending south from the center will move across the peninsula and bring a threat for strong thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes later this afternoon. A Tornado Watch is in effect until 3pm.

During the night a strong convective cell move along and just inland of the Florida east coast from Ft Pierce northward and produced some significant rainfall with storm totals (through 02/12Z) of 4.65 inches at Satellite Beach and 6.00 inches at the Melbourne NWS.
ED

7:30AM June 2 update
The center of Barry is still offshore, southwest of Tampa. And the forecast track has moved to the right, now landfall should be north of Tampa. Most of the rain is to the North and Northeast of the center, so Central Florida has seen most of the heaviest of the rain it will get already. However, a Tornado watch remains up until 3 PM today for much of the area.

The big Bend of Florida and Northern Florida will continue to get heavy rain for a few more hours.

Convection surprisingly fired up a bit more this morning near the center, but the low level center is likely to fall apart very quickly as the rest of the convection races across. Similar to Alberto.

Let us know conditions in your area here



7:20PM update
Recon reports pressure drop to 997mb. Range of 50-60MPH winds. Strongest winds are on the western side of the convection though. Interesting to see how much longer it can hold together at this strength. The pressure dropping trend seems to be at halt,since soon after that recon report it appeared that convection was starting to fall off.


6:55PM update
Indications are that the northeastern movement (along the path of the cloud blow off) is occurring earlier than expected, likely making the landfall point a bit more east. But in such a storm, it won't make much difference.

Barry does have a lot of lightning associated with it (See map), which is unusual for a Tropical Storm.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Barry has formed in the Gulf of Mexico 320 miles southwest of Tampa, FL.

Tropical Storm warnings are up for the Florida west coast from Bonita Beach up to Keaton Beach.

Recon aircraft found around 1000mb of pressure earlier, and found a pressure of 1000mb, and with a slightly strengthening system, it was enough to classify it as a Tropical Storm. The second of 2007, on the first day of the season.

More recent recon has found a slightly stronger system with 998mb of pressure. Equates to roughly 50-55MPH (in better conditions maybe even 60MPH) winds. Tornadoes may be caused by this system. See the local storm statements. The system may strengthen just a bit more, but most of the convection is getting blown off to the northeast, sending most of the rain to Florida (and we can use it).

As for impact,
o Flood preparedness
o Tornado awareness
o Basic essentials for power failure
are the big three for Barry. Other than some beach erosion, surge will fairly low impact. Wind will be gusty near the core and where heavier convective elements transfer some of that flight level momentum into the boundary layer. Otherwise, not a very big concern there either.

The heaviest rain for Central Florida will be between 3AM and 3PM tomorrow.

Barry will be interesting once it crosses Florida and interact with the dynamics of a trough amplification. It should be well involved with cyclone phase transition at that time.




Long Term flhurricane radar recording of Barry


More to come soon...

Hurricane City is doing thier kickoff storm broadcast tonight at 8.

Earlier Update
The 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins today, and we are watching a system in the western Caribbean that may bring rain to Florida.

The system still isn't likely to develop much, if at all, as conditions for it doing so are becoming more hostile.

See Clark's blog below for more information about this system.

Although we always hope for another inactive season, this year is expected to be an above average year for storms, so it could get busy. Normally June is a slow month, as the season really doesn't start to get going until August.

Flhurricane is a non-profit site, but still requires resources to run, we emphasize quality information over quantity, and focus on the information with an outlet for communication. We do not celebrate the arrival of hurricanes or hurricane season, as the point is to help keep people informed and encourage using multiple sources of information to help make decisions, always preferring the use of official sources over unofficial ones.

If you would like to donate to help out, please see the Donations and Thanks Page for more information.

Storm Names for 2007 are
Andrea Humberto Olga
Barry Ingrid Pablo
Chantal Jerry Rebekah
Dean Karen Sebastien
Erin Lorenzo Tanya
Felix Melissa Van
Gabriella Noel Wendy


Andrea, a preseason Subtropical Storm, has already formed, so the next system will be the "B" system.

For Floridians, a sales tax holiday begins today and lasts until midnight on June 12th, you can get the following hurricane related items sans sales tax in this time:

  • Flashlights and other portable, self-powered light sources - $20 or less
  • Portable radios, two-way radios and weather-band radios - $75 or less
  • Tarps - $50 or less
  • Gas or diesel fuel containers - $25 or less
  • Batteries - $30 or less (AAA, AA, C and D cell, and 6 and 9 volt batteries)
  • Non-electrical food storage coolers - $30 or less
  • Portable generators - $1,000 or less
  • Carbon monoxide detectors - $75 or less
  • Storm shutter devices - $200 or less


The east pacific already has Barbara, will the Atlantic catch up with another early storm? It may not wind up being purely tropical.

Barry Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Barry


stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Barry (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Barry (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Barry

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Barry
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Barry -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Radar Loops
Key West, FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Miami, FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Tampa Bay/Ruskin, FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Tallahassee, FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Northwest, FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Lightning Strike Map
Rainbow Enhancement GOM and W Caribbean

Main Page for the SSD satellite products is here.
NOAA SSD Tropical Satellite Page

More on the Links page

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jun 02 2007 10:10 AM)


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dem05
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #75252 - Fri Jun 01 2007 06:13 PM

Through the evening, I will be curious to see if this is one of those "Thunderstorm chaser" Systems that we have seen a couple of in recent years over 'round this side of the Gulf. Perfect examples being Earl in '98 and Gabriele in '01. These storms get an established center, the thunderstorms shear off to the NE and a new, slightly stronger center reforms to theNortheast under the thunderstorms time and time again until landfall or system decay. This may be a classic candidate for that now,and if it does so, I'd expect a landfall around Tampa or a bit further south as a moderate tropical storm, but nothing more. Either way, I wouldn't expect anything too strong along the western coast and we are gonna get some much welcome rain! Too funny! I wrote this thing off last night. That tasty crow is mighty delicious! LOL :-)

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Hurricane29
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: dem05]
      #75253 - Fri Jun 01 2007 06:30 PM

Looks like barry maybe is taken a sharper NE is turn...Atleast it appears that way on satelitte imagery.

How about a link to the imagery that you looked at.

visible loop

Edited by Hurricane29 (Fri Jun 01 2007 06:36 PM)


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hurricane expert
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #75255 - Fri Jun 01 2007 06:36 PM

For some reason this storm appears to be moving alittle more north/ east now rather than north i might be wrong

Again, post a link to the imagery you are looking at to your post.

Edited by Storm Cooper (Fri Jun 01 2007 06:39 PM)


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jessiej
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: hurricane expert]
      #75256 - Fri Jun 01 2007 06:40 PM

Looks like a big push to the NE.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

--------------------
Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005


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cieldumort
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #75261 - Fri Jun 01 2007 06:55 PM

92L being verified as a Tropical Storm is not terribly surprising to me, although admittedly still a bit of a "Wow, on June 1, no less!" moment. Color-enhanced satellite loops as early as last night were strongly suggesting that a tight and at least somewhat warm-cored coc had already formed. Will make for an interesting read when HRD gets around to it.

Would like to point out an earlier ship report that lends a strong voice, when taken with the most recent recon data, for another upgrade tonight.

SHIP 1800UTC 23.70 -85.10 Due East 49.9 knots 29.68" Rapid falling
(National Data Buoy Center)

Barry reminds me of Alberto, and more than a little bit. With him attempting to form a tenuous eyewall, just about all afternoon, I think he stands a pretty good shot of developing a small, but noteworthy core of very strong TS/perhaps marginal Cat 1 winds. Of course, Alberto wasn't exactly known for his ferocious winds, but he also worked on trying to put together a respectable eyewall just before landfall, and there is reason to believe that a small core of 70MPH surface wind really did exist.


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Rich B
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: cieldumort]
      #75264 - Fri Jun 01 2007 07:09 PM

Well the latest Vortex Data message has estimated surface winds at a little under 60 mph, and maximum flight level winds of near 78 mph. Interestingly both measured in the left hand side of the storm - not on the right where most of the weather is. Could we see Barry noticeably stronger than forecast... maybe even making it to Cat 1? Well given the visible presentation i would say no, but given the aircraft data, then that does become quite a real possibility.

EDIT: Latest vortex data has pressure down to 997 mb

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Edited by Rich B (Fri Jun 01 2007 07:17 PM)


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clueless
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #75267 - Fri Jun 01 2007 07:26 PM

Looks like we will get off to an early start into this season. Could someone tell me more about the lightning issue? I know it is very unusual for tropical weather to be accompanied by lightning. Lightning is the last thing that we need here in central Florida. Any clue why this storm has it when others tend not to?

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: clueless]
      #75270 - Fri Jun 01 2007 07:32 PM

Quote:

Looks like we will get off to an early start into this season. Could someone tell me more about the lightning issue? I know it is very unusual for tropical weather to be accompanied by lightning. Lightning is the last thing that we need here in central Florida. Any clue why this storm has it when others tend not to?




Either it's not purely tropical (likely), or sometimes in rapidly strengthening storms lightning has appeared. Barry is a little bit of both, but I think the strengthening part has ended.


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cieldumort
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: clueless]
      #75272 - Fri Jun 01 2007 07:55 PM

Hail aloft is often very important in creating the static which results in lightning. Most thunderstorms within Tropical Cyclones do not produce copious hail, however. In fact, most thunderstorms within classic TCs are rather low-topped, that is to say, they do not reach way up into the upper troposphere as do severe thunderstorms which form over land. This is in no small part due to the temperature profile both in the vertical as well as horizontal of TCs. Rapidly strengthening and/or very strong TCs occasionally do produce tremendous amounts of lightning, and even hail, as their thunderstorms can respond to this intensity in such a way that they are essentially strong to severe cells within the larger cyclone.

(This is all a bit of a quick and dirty description).


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Hurricane29
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: cieldumort]
      #75273 - Fri Jun 01 2007 07:57 PM

Winds have increased to 50mph and the pressure is at 997mb.------8pm NHC update

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CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Rich B]
      #75274 - Fri Jun 01 2007 07:59 PM

Well, Shiver me timbers!

Barry made the tropical transition that almost everyone *did not* think would happen, even myself.

I was looking at the very first visible pics and mentioned earlier an another post that it was looking alot like a sub-tropical system, at best. And there really wasn't much in the way of deep convection near the center.

But, alas! The deep convection finally did flare up, and despite the shear, began wrapping around the center, and with each passing visible pic added to the loop, it became apparent that cyclogenesis was unfolding before our eyes!

I too, eat crow. It just goes to show, folks, that with all our computer models, all the advanced analysis tools and the elaborate, 'high-brow' postings from our many very knowledgable members to this forum, that good 'ol Mother Nature has the final say and, often, she throws a curve ball just when we were expecting the slider.

But keep it up! There have been many very insightful and educational postings. Great forum. Learning tons! Thank you all.

I am so happy for the good folks who will be getting the drenching we've all been praying for so long.

I heard it's been dubbed 'Benifical Barry'. A true Godsend for the parched peninsula! THANKS BARRY!

- Former Coconut Grove and Key West Resident

--------------------
"Don't Get Stuck on Stupid" - General Honore, following Hurricane Katrina


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #75275 - Fri Jun 01 2007 08:07 PM

Quote:

But, alas! The deep convection finally did flare up, and despite the shear, began wrapping around the center, and with each passing visible pic added to the loop, it became apparent that cyclogenesis was unfolding before our eyes!
I too, eat crow. It just goes to show, folks, that with all our computer models, all the advanced analysis tools and the elaborate, 'high-brow' postings from our many very knowledgable members to this forum, that good 'ol Mother Nature has the final say and, often, she throws a curve ball just when we were expecting the slider.





Well... I was among those who thought the same thing you did, until this afternoon. Now, I'm beginning to return to that camp, based upon the last several AVN images. While Barry was very much tropical in structure at the time of the 5pm advisory, I think it's already losing its tropical characteristics, due to shear and the rapid movement.

Edit: I just loaded the visible loop, which shows the LLC in the overnight IR, and I was completely wrong about the movement. It looks as if the LLC actually isn't moving much... maybe drifting due east... but the shear has pulled Barry apart.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Fri Jun 01 2007 08:29 PM)


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Ronn
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #75277 - Fri Jun 01 2007 08:34 PM

The circulation is completely exposed now as seen on the last visible images of the day. The intensity has probably peaked for this storm. However--as is common with these systems--we might see another flare-up of convection near the center overnight. Either that, or it transitions quickly into an extratropical system. Seems to me that this system will become extratropical sooner rather than later. The rain area will probably exit the west coast of Florida by midday Saturday and then there will be a strong, dry onshore wind from the exposed circulation ala Gordon in 2000.

Here in Pinellas County, we have been experiencing steady rain for several hours...1/2" so far. The wind is just starting to pick up with gusts in the range of 20-25mph.

--------------------
Ronn Raszetnik - Hazards Geographer

Edited by Ronn (Fri Jun 01 2007 09:02 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Update [Re: Ronn]
      #75281 - Fri Jun 01 2007 09:13 PM

As of 8pm EDT Tropical Storm Warnings and Inland Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for portions of Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON BEACH
...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF KEATON BEACH TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL AREAS OF LEVY... CITRUS... HERNANDO... SUMTER... PASCO...
PINELLAS... HILLSBOROUGH... POLK... MANATEE... SARASOTA... HARDEE... DESOTO... HIGHLANDS... CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES.


COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER OF BARRY MAKES LANDFALL.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/TBW/HLSTBW

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls2.shtml

http://www.weather.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=HLS

Reminder- Full Moon was yesterday/ last night. High tides are running higher than normal due to the Full Moon.~danielw


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h2ocean
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Re: Update [Re: danielw]
      #75282 - Fri Jun 01 2007 09:34 PM

The last 7 hours the LLC has moved little. The convection has been blowing off to the NE. There has been a bit of an increase of convective activity on the east side which is good as it will spread across the FL peninsula since we need the rain. I am a little surprised that the earlier convective burst didn't pull the LLC more to the NNE.

--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


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danielwAdministrator
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Area Forecast Dicussion Updates [Re: danielw]
      #75283 - Fri Jun 01 2007 09:39 PM

Excerpts...
Miami NWS 919pm EDT-Friday
.UPDATE...THE EVENING MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS 0-3 KM HELICITY OF 349.
THE LOCAL AREA IS IN THE FRONT RIGHT QUAD OF T.S. BARRY AND THIS IS THE MOST FAVORABLE QUAD FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED TORNADOES.
A LINE OF DISCREET VERY HEAVY SHOWERS JUST DEVELOPED OVER THE UPPER KEYS THIS PAST HOUR AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY. JUST TALKED WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND THEY ARE GOING TO GO WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
ACROSS SOUTH FL TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
..GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES AND RADAR TRENDS. HAVE JUST UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO REFLECT THIS SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES ACROSS ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FL. OTHER MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH IS ALREADY REFLECTED IN OUR PRODUCTS. SO NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FCST ARE ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING. /GREGORIA
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMFL&max=61

Tampa NWS-648pm EDT-Friday
THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY A NUISANCE TYPE STORM WITH SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ALONG THE NATURE COAST COULD SEE UP TO 5 FEET WITH THE SURGE ON SATURDAY. SOME WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR IN STRONGER RAIN BANDS...AND DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDTBW&max=61

Tallahassee 910pm EDT-Friday
LATEST ADVISORY FROM NHC HAS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF KEATON BEACH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. BARRY HAS A VERY SHEARED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE. NEVERTHELESS...A SHIP REPORT ABOUT 115 MILES WEST OF THE CENTER HAD WINDS OF 30 KNOTS. LATEST FORECAST KEEPS BARRY AS A 50 MPH TROPICAL STORM AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL NEAR HORSESHOE BEACH AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. WITH THE PATH OF BARRY BEING LARGELY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO FROM THE CENTER. THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND STANDS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF GETTING TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL...BUT IF THE TRACK OF BARRY SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...THESE TOTALS WILL DECREASE.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDTAE&max=61

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tae
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/
Map with links to all NWS Offices


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #75284 - Fri Jun 01 2007 09:52 PM

Well, Barry is looking mighty pathetic tonight. Maybe I bit the bullet a little too soon with my commentary on the models earlier? Not sure. Anyway, it looks like the upper low in the Gulf has decided to move east after all, which is slowly pushing the storm in that direction as well. The general flow is out of the south, but the overall progression of the entire mess to the east is sending the storm on a NE path right now.

As a result, I've gotta back off of my Big Bend/W Cent Florida idea and come down to the Tampa region landfall-wise. This is due to a lack of vertical coherence plus a bit more of an impetus to the upper low to move east. Complicating factors could come if the center does reform closer to the convection, which is still headed for the Big Bend/Cedar Key area, but I don't know how likely that is right now. Hopefully the diurnal convective max gives us some ideas.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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swimaway19
Weather Watcher


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Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Clark]
      #75290 - Fri Jun 01 2007 10:57 PM

From part of the new advisory:

"BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE."

Would it be just a little too convenient for the isolated areas to be right over some of these wildfires, or will they end up being out over the Gulf?

--------------------
Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....



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ChessieStorm
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: swimaway19]
      #75291 - Fri Jun 01 2007 11:07 PM

Looks like most of the rain will be off shore, but 3-5 inches possibly on the west side of Florida with more up north to Dixie County and then on to Georgia.

Denis Philips, Channel 28 in Tampa, more or less called this this a sub tropical system on his 11 p.m. update just now. But this is what the doctor ordered.


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swimaway19
Weather Watcher


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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: ChessieStorm]
      #75294 - Fri Jun 01 2007 11:18 PM

NWS posted this a few minutes ago, strong cells moving through SE FL

"BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1107 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
AT 1105 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
POSSIBLE TORNADO OVER CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...OR ABOUT 15 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HOMESTEAD...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
RURAL NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
THIS STORM WILL LIKELY CROSS HIGHWAY 41 BY 1130 PM."

Edited by swimaway19 (Fri Jun 01 2007 11:27 PM)


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Bev
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: dem05]
      #75295 - Fri Jun 01 2007 11:30 PM

Tampa Bay 10 meteorologist Dick Fletcher predicting 3-6 inches of rain for the Tampa Bay area and storm surge of 3-5 feet. Wouldn't surprise me, we've had 1.3 inches already in Cortez, S. of Tampa and it just started coming down hard again as I type. Localized coastal flooding is also predicted.

This is a good start to the season, perhaps this TS will serve to remind people to stock up, make plans, and prepare for what is supposed to be a very active season. It's harder to get into hurricane mode when the sun is shining and we're in the middle of a drought.

--------------------
Never use a long word when a diminutive one will do.


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scottsvb
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #75297 - Sat Jun 02 2007 12:02 AM

Actually alot did speculate it had a good chance.. me included. I stated last night recon will check it out and there was a good chance it should be Barry..but it was up to the data the recon showed.Barry I still feel will be south of the NHCs landfall from Ft Myers-just north of Tampa Bay (Pasco) The storm is not purely tropical anymore...its last breathe was this evening....it should hold its own or strengthen more..but as a extra-tropical baroclinic low...as i feel its been transforming now. Still nonetheless....winds of 50-60mph near the landfall and squalls later on Saturday especially over S florida and eastern florida with the S and SW flow. Tornados are likely south of I-4 with a slight chance north. Rainfall amounts will range from near 1-2 inches in N central florida...to 6-8 inches in parts of S florida and along the west coast to TampaBay.

This was a nice start to the hurricane season...and florida needed this rainfall.

scott


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madmumbler
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Ronn]
      #75305 - Sat Jun 02 2007 07:30 AM

I'm on the Cape Haze peninsula in w. Charlotte county. I'm guessing a good 10 kn steady breeze at least, with gusts a lot higher. It's heavy overcast. My son was supposed to have a track meet this morning in Tampa, and I'm not driving up there in this. Especially with that area that looks like it's moving into Tampa right now.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Ronn
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: madmumbler]
      #75316 - Sat Jun 02 2007 08:19 AM

Barry is now an extratropical system, although the NHC will probably maintain the tropical designation until landfall for the sake of public awareness. The center of circulation is stretching out SW to NE and most of the heaviest rain is in a single band along the west coast of Florida northeast of the center.

*Surface circulation is no longer defined at 9:00am.

--------------------
Ronn Raszetnik - Hazards Geographer

Edited by Ronn (Sat Jun 02 2007 09:04 AM)


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charlottefl
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: damejune2]
      #75321 - Sat Jun 02 2007 08:56 AM

Pressure here in Port Charlotte is 995.8mb. NHC is reporting the MCP on Barry as 997.
Just thought it was interesting to note. I know a lot of times they estimate MCP so that
may be what the deal is. It's calm almost no wind.


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ChessieStorm
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: swimaway19]
      #75325 - Sat Jun 02 2007 09:18 AM

In looking at the Tampa Radar loop it looks like two centers swirling out there. One is "Barry" near Sarasota moving northeast and the other is out in the Gulf about 100 miles off Hernando/Citrus County. Is the second one the mid or upper level low that moved into the western Gulf on Thursday that is pushing Barry along?

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allan
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Ronn]
      #75326 - Sat Jun 02 2007 09:19 AM

Quote:

Barry is now an extratropical system, although the NHC will probably maintain the tropical designation until landfall for the sake of public awareness. The center of circulation is stretching out SW to NE and most of the heaviest rain is in a single band along the west coast of Florida northeast of the center.

*Surface circulation is no longer defined at 9:00am.




Nope not yet, he's still got some good flare ups near the center before making landfall... I still say there's an outside chance of him gaining 60 mph. winds if the convection could blow up more. He's still at least Sub-tropical.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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madmumbler
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: ChessieStorm]
      #75328 - Sat Jun 02 2007 09:27 AM

TWC said a while ago that the center was down near Sarasota...um...what's his name... I can't remember the meteorologist's name.

He pointed out that about an hour ago.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Hugh
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: nc_wx_watcher]
      #75335 - Sat Jun 02 2007 10:45 AM

It looks to me, based upon the Tampa radar loop, that the actual LLC of what is left of Barry is just offshore, and moving up the coastline, north of Tampa. Either that, of the LLC is due north of Tampa, onshore. The thing is so disorganized now that I can't determine which quasi-spin I'm seeing is really what is left of the LLC.
If I go to the Tallahassee radar I see what appears to be a broad circulation moving onshore SSE of Perry. In the end it's really not important, because the whole area is getting drenched with much-needed rain. Those of us west of Panama City are getting hung out to dry, though.

Edit: 11am advisory confirms position of the now-downgraded TD Barry as north of Tampa, onshore.
All watches and warnings (other than tornados, of course) have been discontinued.

Edit2: Interesting bit from the discussion.. Barry and Barbara made landfall within about an hour of each other.
Any chance that the remnants of Barbara could sneak into the Bay of Campeche and reform?



--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sat Jun 02 2007 10:51 AM)


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ChessieStorm
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Hugh]
      #75338 - Sat Jun 02 2007 11:01 AM

I think the LLC went ashore near Sarasota near 10:30 or so. There wasn't much to it.

The other feature you're seeing is probably that low that entered the Gulf on Thursday off of Texas and Mexico.

Right now the low out there now has shifted winds to the southwest here. If Barry had been more organized we would have a northeast wind since he went in south of here, but that didn't happen.


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HanKFranK
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assault of the midget B-storms [Re: Hugh]
      #75339 - Sat Jun 02 2007 11:11 AM

barry's center became elongated in the early morning hours and it is steadily undergoing extratropical transition. the deep convection bursting (maybe due to increased friction at the coast) this morning probably helped stay any itchy trigger fingers at the NHC to call it extratropical.. recon still shows it as weak warm-cored for now. my folks are taking a beach trip to pawley's island, and it just figures that after weeks of dry, warm (but not really hot) weather an ex-tropical storm is going to shellack them on day one. barry's legacy will be mostly favorable, with a decent rainfall blanketing some of the most parched areas in the southeast, and a quick advance precluding the kinds of problems a slow moving tropical storm can cause. might be a few severe cells in the right front quad with daytime heating and the clear dry air intrusion into the core across north florida today, but probably nothing else of note. the folks on the carolina beaches will need to be wary in the surf, though.
barbara is fairly weak and coming in with little momentum... i greatly doubt that anything of the center will survive across central america. the system is fairly small and the threat of severe rainfall should also be limited. the NHC guys already noted a tilt with height, so it'll probably just decouple and wash out fairly quickly. the conditions on the atlantic side would be fairly favorable, but there isn't a strong convergence point or disturbance there to take advantage of things, as barry took most of the good low-level dynamics out with it.
next chance of anything interesting is the next northward moisture surge from the western caribbean, scheduled for about mid-month, which the GFS keeps insisting will happen run-to-run. considering it's overall long-range performance with barry, i'd say there's a reasonable chance we'll be watching another feature of interest around about june 13-15.
the pattern is de-amplifying, so there isn't much else of a chance of more tropical development.
HF 1611z02june


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vineyardsaker
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Re: assault of the midget B-storms [Re: HanKFranK]
      #75340 - Sat Jun 02 2007 11:20 AM

its actually *sunny* in New Smyrna Beach, Volusia County, and we still would need some good downpours of rain. Looks to me from here that Barry is fizzling out...

--------------------
Motto: chown -R linux:GNU *
Distros: Debian, Xubuntu, Mint
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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scottsvb
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Re: assault of the midget B-storms [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #75344 - Sat Jun 02 2007 12:11 PM

Im not going to add more then what Hank just added. Barry came ashore near TampaBay-Sarasota as a TD. Weakened alittle faster due to some dry air. Infact...most were hoping for more rain today from this. Barry peaked out yesterday evening and then took in some drier air from the western gulf..and also started its transition to extra-tropical.

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nc_wx_watcher
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Re: assault of the midget B-storms [Re: scottsvb]
      #75347 - Sat Jun 02 2007 01:14 PM Attachment (181 downloads)

I know Barry is gonna be extra tropical when it gets to SC/NC and it's moving fast but could it possibly strengthen even as an E.T. system. I'm in NC and my local news website has this about the waters off of our coasts. see the attached file. [image]http://wect.com/Global/story.asp?S=5227117[/image]

Edited by nc_wx_watcher (Sat Jun 02 2007 01:17 PM)


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cieldumort
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Re: assault of the midget B-storms [Re: nc_wx_watcher]
      #75354 - Sat Jun 02 2007 03:19 PM

The official NHC forecast calls for it to increase to a 40 knot -fully- extratropical storm as it scoots northeast

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 28.0N 82.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 30.5N 81.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 03/1200Z 33.5N 79.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 04/0000Z 36.0N 76.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 04/1200Z 39.5N 73.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 05/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER extratropical LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/PROENZA
(LINK)

5-Day "Cone" Link


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nc_wx_watcher
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Re: assault of the midget B-storms [Re: cieldumort]
      #75356 - Sat Jun 02 2007 03:57 PM

As of right now at 4pm where exactly is the "center" of Barry located? I'm tracking the strm (or at least calling myself tracking it).

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Hugh
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Re: assault of the midget B-storms [Re: nc_wx_watcher]
      #75358 - Sat Jun 02 2007 04:15 PM

The new (likely final?) advisory on Barry will be out within the hour, so that will tell you exactly where its remnant low is. On the visible satellite I see a spin offshore, but on the radar it looks like it's nearing the Jacksonville area.

Edit: Advisory was indeed the final one on now-Extratropical storm Barry, and it was indeed located near Jacksonville.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sat Jun 02 2007 05:49 PM)


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Clark
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #75360 - Sat Jun 02 2007 06:31 PM

Well, Barry did what we expected in the end, and that's bring some needed rains to parts of SE Georgia and the Florida peninsula. General totals will be in the 2-3" range with a few spots closer to 5-6", it appears, without really any flooding concerns. All in all, a needed soaking rain.

Looking back on it, out of all of the available model guidance, the ECMWF did the best with this one. It was largely consistent on a track near or just north of Tampa throughout most of its runs over the past several days. The GFS was probably next best; not nearly as consistent but did better toward landfall. It also showed the mid-level and surface circulations being decoupled from one another, which actually did happen. Every time convection flared, a new mid-level center would get shot off to the north while the surface circulation turned more northeasterly. Most of the rains in my neck of the woods came from one of the mid-level centers, in fact. Good call by the GFS there, even in the face of some signs to the contrary at times.

The NAM didn't do awful with this system, but it had the wrong idea in keeping the storm vertically coherent in the face of the strong vertical shear across the Gulf. If the system had stayed upright and vertically coherent, it likely would have made landfall near where the NAM suggested -- further north and west -- but alas, it did not. Not sure what part of the NAM analyses you can chalk that up to, but I'm guessing to a tendency to overdo warm core structure nowadays.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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WeatherNut
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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Clark]
      #75361 - Sat Jun 02 2007 07:02 PM

Well, here in Atlanta it seems we have been right on the edge of the rain all day...but not a drop here in the city. The air has just been so bone dry the precip isn't making it all the way down. At least the fires in SE GA will be put out by Barry so we wont wake up to the "smoke fog" thats been in the air for the past couple of weeks. I'm sure several locations will be thankful for that. Hats off to the firefighters in FL/GA. This has to be a blessing to them

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Tony Cristaldi
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Re:Clark [Re: Clark]
      #75362 - Sat Jun 02 2007 07:42 PM

One thing to add to the performance of the ECM is that it latched onto height falls over the GOMEX well ahead of the GFS. From my SAT 5/26 AFD...


"THU-SAT...MED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
A MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD/HIGH COVERAGE RAIN EVENT LATE NEXT WEEK AS
WE HEAD INTO JUNE. CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE WEAK SRN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO OCCUR OVER THE GOMEX BY BOTH THE 00Z ECM AND
12Z GFS. ECM IS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH BOTH THE H50 TROUGH...AND THE
SURFACE RESPONSE...HOWEVER BOTH SOLNS SHOW ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO ALLOW
DEEP LYR FLOW TO ACQUIRE SIGNIF SRLY COMPONENT TO ADVECT DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD INTO FL. BY FRI/SAT...THE ECM SHOWS A MORE
CUTOFF/SLOWER SOLN...WHILE THE GFS LINKS THIS WEAKNESS UP WITH THE
NRN STREAM...CREATING A BROADER MORE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH. IT'S
HARD TO IGNORE THAT THE GFS HAS OFTEN FOLLOWED THE ECM'S LEAD WITH
THE CURRENT PATTERN...AND IT IS ENCOURAGING TO SEE BETTER AGREEMENT
BTWN THE TWO...THOUGH IT STILL IS IN THE DAY 4+ TIME FRAME."


Additionally, I distinctly remember much stronger height falls working toward the GOMEX on the H144/H168 panels of the FRI 5/25/12Z run of the ECMWF compared to the corresponding run of the GFS...hence the "IT IS ENCOURAGING TO SEE BETTER AGREEMENT BTWN THE TWO" comment from this AFD, issued the following day. More kudos for the ECM, which is usually the stellar performer amongst the globals in its depiction of the H50 height fields over NOAM/CONUS.


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Rich B
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Re:Clark [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #75368 - Sun Jun 03 2007 07:31 AM

The remnants of Barry actually look better organised now than ever as a Tropical Cyclone. although according to the HPC the centre is inland, early visible imagery shows a developing convective band wrapping around off shore of the GA / SC coasts. However, IR imagery shows that the convecion is shallow and weak, and at present there is little reflection of this wrap around in the latest radar imagery.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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CoconutCandy
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Secondary Circulation ?? [Re: Rich B]
      #75370 - Sun Jun 03 2007 07:54 AM Attachment (188 downloads)

Morning All,

Not too sure if this is the proper place to post this ...
It does contain the most recent threads, and, since Barry is no longer tropical,
I didn't think that the "Tropical Storm Barry" forum was a good place, either.

Perhaps we need to start a new thread (forum?) for extra-tropical 'Barry'.
Feel free to move this posting if you do so.

Now then ...

I'm checking out the satellite and doppler loops for ex-Barry, and I'm noticing something rather curious.

It would appear that there is a smaller circulation center that's been rotating through SE Georgia, now just exiting into the Atlantic, near the Georgia/South Carolina border, that appears to be embedded within the much larger overall circulation of the now extratropical Barry remnent. (Please view the attached satellite photo.)

I remember reading in these forums a day or two ago that a "piece of energy" might get 'left behind' as the overall, larger circulation accelerates off towards New England.

Question: Could this bit of 'vorticity' break away when ex-Barry pulls away, and languish over the Gulf stream for possible (sub?)-tropical development down the road.

Or, am I just noticing the ''inner sanctum" of the overall extratropical circulation that will eventually 'wrap' more towards the center, instead of it currently being *distinctly* in the SW quadrant of the overall much larger circulation.

I'd be interested in hearing from our forum meteorologists what their take is on this little 'will-o-the-wisp' of a 'circulation center'. Is this common with freshly transitioned systems when they acquire non-tropical characteristics?

--------------------------------------------------------

"The most incomprehensible thing about this Universe is that it should be comprehensible at all !!" - Albert Einstein

--------------------------------------------------------

--------------------
"Don't Get Stuck on Stupid" - General Honore, following Hurricane Katrina


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Clark]
      #75374 - Sun Jun 03 2007 12:51 PM

Looking at the floater for the remnants of Barry, and combining this with the information in the 11am advisory from the Hydrometeorological Center, Barry's rains may be over, but the wind is actually stronger now. The advisory makes no mention of the term "tropical depression" because Barry has lost its tropical characteristics, but the NHC still shows the advisory under "Tropical Depression Barry". It's semantecs, but to me, this is sort of poor form when winds stated in the advisory are above the threshold for tropical storm strength and the pressure is actually quite a bit lower than it ever was in Barry as a tropical entity, at 992 MB.

Given the remnant low's proximity to the coastline right now, could it actually get out over water and re-acquire tropical characteristics? On the visible loop I thought it was doing just this, but the IR loop shows no convection near the center, but I think a case could be made that given the location and strength, the low is in fact a "subtropical" storm right now.

Edit: Just pulled up the Wilmington, NC, radar. It shows a poorly defined circulation, but a circulation nonetheless, southeast of Wilmington - offshore - moving in toward Wilmington.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sun Jun 03 2007 12:55 PM)


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nc_wx_watcher
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Hugh]
      #75375 - Sun Jun 03 2007 01:06 PM

I don't think the low has enough time over water needed to regain tropical characteristics especially with it being so poorly defined (the center). I just may be wrong but it's only my one cent.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: nc_wx_watcher]
      #75376 - Sun Jun 03 2007 01:14 PM

Quote:

I don't think the low has enough time over water needed to regain tropical characteristics especially with it being so poorly defined (the center). I just may be wrong but it's only my one cent.




You're probably right, especially given the water temps aren't as high in this area I imagine, but it's definately looking like an interesting Nor'easter setting up.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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ftlaudbob
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Something? [Re: Hugh]
      #75386 - Mon Jun 04 2007 02:23 PM

There is a good flare-up off the tip of the Yucatan(about the same spot where Barry got started).Does anybody have a stats on this.Does not look like there is much shear at all.Maybe something to watch? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

Edited by ftlaudbob (Mon Jun 04 2007 02:29 PM)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


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Re: Something? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #75388 - Mon Jun 04 2007 03:40 PM

It's nothing to worry about, just an afternoon convective flare up from a trough.

Looking around, everything seems quiet for at least a week and probably longer, nothing looks impending. No real waves, nothing really lingering around either.

The atlanta area finally got some rain, at least enough to give the ground a little to sip on. South Georgia and Florida got some critically needed rain.

Now another good soaking would be nice. Just don't see anything coming down the pipe.

--------------------
TD/TS/HU/MH
16/15/09/04 <- My prediction (2014 Predictions)
03/03/01/00 <- Year Totals

http://blog.bloodstar.org


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