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Eresto Staying out to Sea. 99L is a low development chance (20%) system approaching the eastern Caribbean.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 312 (Nate) , Major: 330 (Maria) Florida - Any: 340 (Irma) Major: 340 (Irma)
43.0N 41.0W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Ne at 18 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla. 25.75N 80.25W
Re: Watching the Western Caribbean... [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #75603 - Fri Jun 22 2007 01:32 PM

Basically the "blob" of deep convection or thunderstorm activity is an indication of intense thunderstorms in the area. This is detected by using the Infrared Satellite which measures the temperature of the cloud tops. As thunderstorms grow stronger, the clouds rise higher and into cooler air, thus registering cooler on infrared satellite. The blob that has formed is thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave and accompanying low pressure area.

A good link to satellite images is at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml. Go to Caribbean and select infrared image for a still shot and infrared loop for a time lapse of the past several hours.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Watching the Western Caribbean... [Re: weatherguy08]
      #75604 - Fri Jun 22 2007 02:06 PM

There is no tropical activity with the area of convection off Honduras. This is a mid-level diffulent flow creating a surge in the convection. The pressures are not falling and no model shows anything coming down to the surface. Chance is less then 5%.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Watching the Western Caribbean... [Re: scottsvb]
      #75605 - Fri Jun 22 2007 04:15 PM

I beg to differ - so does NHC. From the TWO this morning: "CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE"

As noted on my Main Page update yesterday morning - at that time the system even had a hint of a mid-level circulation - that is no longer discernable. Your probability of development was about right, but not the analysis - the system is, and has been, tropical in nature but its not likely to do anything.

With the ongoing satellite imagery problems at NASA MSFC, I have placed a close-up of the wave on the Main Page update. Just click on 'Honduras'.
Cheers,
ED


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Watching the Western Caribbean... [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #75610 - Fri Jun 22 2007 11:35 PM

Nice point on that.. I probably should of said No tropical development instead of activity.
I agree and see they also talk about the difflent pattern aloft like i mentioned.


A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING N OF 16N. THE WAVE
IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...MAINLY OVER NICARAGUA.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL...MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE
SHOULD AFFECT BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT AND THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE SUN.



CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED ON A HIGH LOCATED
SOUTH OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N77W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN INTO CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W. 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE BASIN W OF 70W. WINDS HAVE DECREASED
FROM AROUND 30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST YESTERDAY. THESE
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND WILL INCREASE AGAIN
SUN THROUGH TUE AS THE ATLC RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS.
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE. TRADE WIND SHOWERS...CHARACTERIZED BY THEIR SHORT DURATION
AND LIGHT INTENSITY ARE SEEN OVER THE E-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3507
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Saturday morning [Re: scottsvb]
      #75611 - Sat Jun 23 2007 09:10 AM

With the GHCC server being down at Marshall Spaceflight Center. I've learned that is nearly impossible to find satellite images that are less than an hour old. Which by some standards is fast!

While checking the Tropics this morning I noticed the latest QuickScatter pass over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico contained a low level circulation of about 25 knots. This is located due west of Tampa and south of the Appalachicola/ Big Bend area.

Quickscatter (time sensitive)

Visible Image at 1215Z ( 9AM EDT)

Other areas:
Trough in Western Caribbean has reinitiated convection near the Belize Coast.

Mesoscale system off of the Corpus Christi,TX area. Appears to be connected to a mid level Low. Based on the New Orleans Vertical wind directions... SE at the 4000 ft level, and westerly at the surface.

Convection beginning to appear near the Low circulation north of the Bahamas.

Medium sized tropical wave has just entered the Eastern Atlantic Ocean off of Africa at 1200Z. The EUMETSAT IR imagery gives a better look at the size. However the system is between two sat sectors and is a bit hard to define the total satellite signature.

EUMETSAT

Yes, I was slightly bored~danielw


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crpeavley
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 26
Incoming Tropical Moisture [Re: danielw]
      #75619 - Tue Jun 26 2007 08:47 AM

Two inverted troughs are showing up nicely on satellite this morning, following on the heels of upper low moving west, and there has been lots of talk in the forecast discussions of yet more needed rain on the way. Didn't know if others were also watching, but let's hope for another good soaker, as long as the weekend clears out, right?

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
SAL Dust in Carb. [Re: crpeavley]
      #75620 - Tue Jun 26 2007 11:44 PM

Man, it may just be my eyes...but in the last few days there is alot of DUST that crossed the atl that is now in the Carribean... Basically half the carb. to just east of the islands. I just looked at some Navy data... Lost my links to alot of my other data. Keeps the storms out of the Eastern Carb. for right now!

Side note:
This was posted by Nasa just over a month ago. I actually just read some of the papers for the study on the TRMM Sat and other data. Think some of you guys might be interested in it. NASA Hurricane 5-14-07

PS: Watch the first movie animation... I love to see my tax dollars at work!!!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Jun 26 2007 11:53 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: SAL Dust in Carb. [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #75625 - Wed Jun 27 2007 05:27 PM

Notice the last day or so, CMC is throwing up a low along the east coast of Florida then out to sea. Latest NHC Outlook this evening talks about the tropical wave from Cuba up to Florida. This might be something to watch over next 24hrs to 48hrs. Upper level winds are a little strong right now. Alot of moisture on the way to south Florida!!! NAM and GFS throw up a weak low out of this tropical wave too... Will just have to wait and see what happens.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Jun 27 2007 05:32 PM)


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