LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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thanks.. excellent description of what has been going on with this invest
looks much better on visible than other sats.. the banding signature is so evident
yet...the air is very dry
i dont think it was expected to do this well ... its getting further than i thought it would
keep watching
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Hi guys,
just been looking at 96L and quite surprised. Even now suggest further development is possible, as per the latest . SSD had it labeled as 'too weak' at 0545Z today, yet 6 hours later at 1145Z it was at T1.5/T1.5. Visible imagery shows decent banding, but this is mostly at low levels. The only deep convection is poorly organised in the southern semi-circle - probably due to dry air ingestion. If the system can mix this out, then it has a shot as it heads west through conditions which are not too forbidding. Certainly worth watching if you live in the Caribbean Islands!!
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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If this system makes it and holds together I would worry as sometimes it's the ones that persist in unfavorable conditions that come back to bite you later so to speak.
It is really riding the bottom of that high and we are talking very dry air... and the water vapor shows this well.
Also, you can see here how the convection keeps getting blown off to the sw and yet... it keeps spinning.
Giving it real points for tenacious.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
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Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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At least there is moisture in the mid levels that probably will keep the LLC going. As long as it doesn't hit heavy shear and from what others have been posting. It looks good.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-wv-loop.html
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Did get pretty ragged during daylight today, however, the latest water vapor loop seems to show another blowup of convection forming on the north side of this thing.. It sure could go 'poof' at any moment, but it looks like it is going to hang on until tomorrow at least. It doesn't look like it is going to give up easily. I know several have said it would have to get away from the before it could develop, but with dry air to the north that could kill it, could it survive because it is staying connected to the moister area in the ?
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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I don't know what to make of 96L. The 5pm indicated that it was less organized (not in so many words) than earlier in the day, but right now, it looks very much like a tropical depression, to my eyes anyway. It's not a storm, but it has a rotation, and convection near the rotation. There's some nice banding features, too, for a storm this far out to see on July 3rd. If it were 2005, I would have guessed they would have pulled the trigger already, but the new crew at the seems less inclined to throw up advisories on things of this nature.
Will it survive a substantial trek across the Atlantic and enter the Hurricane Graveyard (AKA the eastern Caribbean)? Time will tell.
(Speculation without supporting rationale belongs in the Forecast Lounge.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jul 04 2007 02:58 AM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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The diurnal convective max has apparently brought 96L perking to life tonight, looking like a bonafide tropical depression of sorts. It's not there yet, and tends to like to wait a little bit with storms well out at sea to see how well they maintain their organization over time, but if current trends continue into the afternoon hours tomorrow -- I think we might just get a classified system out of this one after all. It's still ingesting some stable air at low levels, keeping the overall organization from being too impressive and partially helping keep the cloud tops from getting too cold, but other than that factor there's not a whole lot against slow organization over the next few days.
Basically -- by midday tomorrow, we're going to know if it's going to take that next step and become something interesting...or if it is just going to pulse up and down on into the Caribbean Sea. Something to watch, to say the least.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Clark.. any "gut feeling" on a medium to long range track that this thing might take if it does develop? I know, that's impossible at this point, but... I'm going on a trip in a few weeks, plus my boss is off on his annual trek to Port St. Joe. So the deck is sort of stacked against us.
Are there any troughs that are likely to push whatever comes out of this thing out into the central Atlantic?
(In the future if you direct a question to a particular individual, please use the PM capability rather than a post.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jul 04 2007 03:01 AM)
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HanKFranK
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it's gotten closer to being something. i could see that it was turning some the other night.. now it's turning pretty good with some banding features and a decent vortex that is peeking between convective bursts. two things are going to work against it--the very dry mid-tropospheric layer that it will encounter for the next 2-3 days, and it's forward speed. the trades aren't exactly creeping along, and it seems like about half of the july depressions that form east of the islands hitch a ride on one and keep racing along until they eviscerate themselves on shear or just simply open up into waves again. it does look like it'll make depression status, but its long term prognosis is still a unfavorable unless it can make it to the islands this weekend at a passable forward speed (i.e. less than 18 knots or so). don't expect it could get there with a great deal of intensity, but a storm in the caribbean this weekend would be a whole different story. synoptic pattern would probably recurve it east of the u.s., but that's highly speculative (a lot has to happen just to get to that juncture).
HF 0211z04july
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cieldumort
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We've got a up on 96L.
Can't say I'm surprised. While convection has been half-hearted because of all that dry, stable air to its north, the low level vortex is a tight little bugger, and what convection has been persistent (southern semi-circle) has really been rather persistent. And now, a thin ring of somewhat deep convection appears to have fully encircled the LLC.
(Link)
-Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert ~danielw
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Just saw that too.. It was issued at 040000z. So it just came out. And i just happen to look at the latest sat. Looks like the low level center may be exposed some now in the last few hours. The storms seem to be blowing off to the sw of what i think is the center. Navy has it at 10.4n 40.7w at 040000z. opps... here's msg!
(Off-topic material removed. Please don't mix your meteorological metaphors )
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jul 04 2007 03:16 PM)
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danielw
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00Z Model test run out to 120 hours-5 days is indicating 96L somewhere near the Northern Lesser Antilles.
This run would place the system in the Leeward Islands, north of Martinique.
While the 18Z model dissipates the system at +66 hours. Near 10N/ 48W.
Current Model Test Plot
Jonathan Vigh's Tropical Cyclone Model Guidance
Edited by danielw (Wed Jul 04 2007 04:15 AM)
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WeatherNLU
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There's no doubt in my mind it's a Tropical Depression already. If they had the ability to get out there right now, they would find a closed low with sustained winds of 25 mph or greater in my opinion. The thing is it's heading towards the Caribbean which is about as unfavorable as can be right now for development.
Whether or not it's gets the TD classification from the is up in the air, but using the basic definition of a Tropical Depression, it's already there.
Just my 2 cents.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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dem05
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Quote:
I know several have said it would have to get away from the before it could develop
I am revisiting an earlier quote here...Well, it is not necesarily true that the system would have to break free of the . Remeber, the is a convergance of the trades, this creates lift fort-storms, and also can help these systems in getting their spin. So the is actually one of the birthplaces for tropical activity. With that said, if a wave looses it's cyclonic appearance and stretches from east to west in an ovular pattern, this is likely the beginning of the end for the potential development of that feature...as the system would be regenerating into the overall signature, this most often happens during periods of strong trade winds, which allow the cyclone to elongate.
As for 96L...it's not getting any stronger tonight, but it shows no signs of elongating (weakening) either. In fact, the circulation pattern seems very symetrical, even though the thunderstorms are not. Give it some more time to hang in there and we may be looking at a TD tomorrow or on Thursday...Clark said the right stuff again tonight, right after his post, some of the activity went poof, but the thunderstorms to the south have resurged and the tops are cooler than before. So he is on track. To back him up further, I'd say that if it is gonna develop, expect up and down surges from hour to hour (hours to hours long), with an overall trend toward improved thunderstorm activity and slow development over the long hual. If you are looking for quick development, or quick sure fire trigger identifiers to indicate the development or dissipation of 96L, I do not think you are gonna see that from satellite frame to satellite frame. This is tennacious enough to last this long, it hasn't faded yet, and likely will not spin down quickly based on these facts...More opportunities for slow development exist in the next several days, so stay tuned, this may become a TD at some point.
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
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Does 96L expanding in area mean anything (like weakening or even strengthening?). Just in my opinion it looks like 96L has grown a little bit larger.
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W.D. Duncan
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allan
Weather Master
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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Not to bash them, but wunderground bloggers have given up up 96L this morning.. I still think it's something to watch and of course the bloggers in there are just ordinary people, not Mets. Yes, it has weakened due to dry air and daytime skies, no, it will not "poof" like they are pushing it will do now in 48 hours. The window is still open in my opinion.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
Edited by allan (Wed Jul 04 2007 01:53 PM)
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
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i agree with you on the part that wunderground bloggers are normal people because I'm a normal person not a Met(at least not til I graduate in 3 more yrs.) but it is Dr. masters himself who said since yesterday when 96L was first established that it will not make TD status and he as of right now says it won't make TD status due to dry air winning over 96L and shear being too high once it passes the Antilles(sp?). So far this morning and all day yesterday he's been right because 96L hasn't made TD or TS yet and dry air has been winning over 96L and it's center been exposed.
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W.D. Duncan
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
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I'm not arguing with you or saying you're bashing wunderground bloggers I'm just being more clear on what I've said on my part. I hope I didn't and apologize if you've been offended.
Take up the Wunderground stuff with PM's, not here.
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W.D. Duncan
Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed Jul 04 2007 02:00 PM)
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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist
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Certainly looks like 96L is dead & gone. Convections is completely displaced from the center, and the dry air just keeps getting wrapped into the circulation. My opinion... this was a T.D. yesterday... now, the chances of it becoming such appear slim to none.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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I wouldn't call it dead or gone by any stretch of the imagination. They convection is certainly not completely displaced from the center of circulation. In fact, this is something thats gone on with it the past few days. As soon as we think its dead, the convection flares up again.
Plus, the low level circulation is still very vigorous.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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