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Tracking #94L in the SW Carib likely to produce very heavy rains over C America this coming week and a Wave nearing NE coast of S America
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 5 (Michael) , Major: 5 (Michael) Florida - Any: 5 (Michael) Major: 5 (Michael)
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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
blah [Re: doug]
      #75763 - Sun Jul 08 2007 04:25 PM

as ed mentioned in the his short update today--the action is still a basin over. the long range GFS isn't showing anything to write home about on our side of the pond, still. they've obviously tweaked its algorithm for the parameters that govern tropical cyclogenesis... the gung-ho, every wave a storm GFS we've seen at times isn't on the job right now. until the storms show up again we won't know whether it's prognosticating better or just blinded. might be the former, ya know.
even without faith anything will happen, might be interesting to see what our erstwhile texas system does when it drifts off the southeast coast. the weak non-tropical low with the slightly frontal appearance that has been drifting eastward since leaving texas to dry out late last week is now over east-central alabama, meandering east. it's sort of like the july version of one of those winter-time storms that teases my neck of the woods with frozen precip, only about 40-50 degrees too warm. be funny if it reformed offshore like shortwave energy jumping from a mature frontal low to the triple point or a coastal lee trough. it ought to be over the atlantic coastal plain this time tomorrow. i vote it freak of the week.
stuff is trying to go in the pacific right now. big typhoon in the works east of the phillipines (12z euro had it smashing into kyushu next weekend as a big-ol mutha). closer in there are a couple/three things in the eastpac trying to fester. MJO doesn't always move in a neat, orderly wave and cause things to happen in our basin after tripping off the pacific, but more often than not it does have an effect. over the next week we ought to see the atlantic look more lively. maybe we'll get something by next weekend or later.
HF 2025z08july


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 355
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: blah [Re: HanKFranK]
      #75765 - Sun Jul 08 2007 08:23 PM

Everything may be quiet now, but let me just speak from first-hand experience....if anything DOES get going in the GOM, there is PLENTY of heat in the water for it. Went to Ft Desoto park yesterday (the extreme South end of Pinellas County along the channel) and the water was almost uncomfortably warm. It HAD to be in the 85 degree range, warmer right along the shore, but it didn't cool much 100 yards from shore either. It was like swimming in a warm bathtub. Looking at the buoys bears this out. LOTS of heat energy out there and now a few days of relatively clear skies and scorching hot temps will only increase this. Only 20-30 POPs in Central Fla this week so the heat is on as is showing on the SSTs for the GOM and here ( http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/CMI-GOES/GOES-comps/WEEKCOMP/latest_week_coded.gif) as well.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
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Re: blah [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #75776 - Tue Jul 10 2007 11:24 AM

Couple of blow-ups off the SE coast and north of SA...any possibilites with these?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: blah [Re: Ed in Va]
      #75778 - Tue Jul 10 2007 12:49 PM

Nothing of any major consequence happening down in the tropics today like the past few days. There's some convection I notice going on down near Central
America well it's a tropical wave thats making it's way west. It has cyclonic turning in the mid levels but the problem is that this wave should find it's self from the Atlantic into the Pacific in the time frame of Wednesday night maybe Friday at the latest. Last but not least close to home for me there's an area of convection off of NC. Just my 2 cents but this convection may be just convection kicked up because of the diffluent flow between the ridge and a departing trough. Fortunately or unfortunately depending on how you look at it there's nothing going on yet down in the tropics yet.

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Long Range Forecast [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #75785 - Fri Jul 13 2007 12:46 AM

This is an excerpt of a long range forecast from earlier today. The forecasters are giving notice to the run to run continuity of the GEM Ensemble models. But it appears that the GEM is an outlier. Being the only Model with this solution, and the solution is being cast aside for that reason. My interpretation of the following excerpt. Stay tuned!

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
932 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007

VALID 12Z MON JUL 16 2007 - 12Z THU JUL 19 2007

...GEM GLOBAL STILL INSISTS ON BRINGING A TROPICAL SYS INTO SRN FL AT THE END OF THE PD... A SOLUTION REJECTED AS AN OUTLIER DESPITE THAT MODELS CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Long Range Forecast [Re: danielw]
      #75787 - Fri Jul 13 2007 09:52 AM

Yesterdays run of the the CMC shows a developed low approaching S Florida in about 144 hrs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 34
Re: Long Range Forecast [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #75788 - Fri Jul 13 2007 10:06 AM

It is looking very interesting now in the tropics as an arriving MJO and a developing La Nina are arriving at the perfect time to potentially have a breakout of tropical activity right in the heart of hurricane season. The CMC model caught my eye yet alone my attention as it appears as if these tropical waves are continually coming off Africa at a higher frequency and appear to be stronger every time. I have a "gut feeling" as Michael Chertoff would say, that we are now in the calm before the storm as the ingredients are now just setting into place. Buckle your seatbelts boys. We are in for a bumpy ride.

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Long Range Forecast [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #75793 - Sat Jul 14 2007 04:03 AM

CMC is moving more left... AKA.. more of a typical Carribean/GOM JULY system... around the high... the next two to three days might be interesting.... i am not seeing any other globals lookin the same just yet, but few more days will tell.

cmc 2007071400
more to come in next few days...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 278
Loc: Southeast, FL
12n 32w [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #75796 - Sat Jul 14 2007 12:45 PM

Big wave off afric wsw of cape verde island looking interesting this morning could be what the models are picking up on for the end of this coming week.

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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 278
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: 12n 32w [Re: Robert]
      #75797 - Sat Jul 14 2007 12:50 PM

Not focusing on the center of it but the wave as whole it seems to take up almost half the atlantic.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: 12n 32w [Re: Robert]
      #75798 - Sat Jul 14 2007 01:44 PM

Right now..nothing appears to be of intrest for the next several days. Maybe in a week or 2 we might get something off Africa but right now..pressures are high and there is alot of dry air pushed wayyy to south to near 10dgN keeping the ITZ south of there. CMC is a outliner model usually and I wouldnt give it more then 10% chance.

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: 12n 32w [Re: scottsvb]
      #75800 - Sat Jul 14 2007 02:17 PM

looks to me that the CMC is working the tropical wave that is about to enter the islands..... takes it through the carb. on a westward track.... 12Z run today is a little more agressive. Not seeing much other global support right now... Just something to watch... Upper Level winds in carb. are a little hostile right now...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 278
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #75801 - Sat Jul 14 2007 04:54 PM

In my expirience i notice when a model goes bisurk on a strong wave wich the one at 10 and 58 is, its precluder to an even stronger one that usually doesent fall apart very easily and makes it across to become a storm. Honestly i can see the front running wave coming north into florida this week enhancing the trough off north carolina and developing and moving out leaving the big wave behind it to come under neath and develop into possibly are first hurricane in the gulf this season. this due to fact that once the trough develops and moves out it will be replaced by a ridge with almost perfect conditions across the carribean.

Edited by Robert (Sat Jul 14 2007 04:57 PM)


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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 278
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #75802 - Sat Jul 14 2007 05:18 PM

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2007

EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS IS A
FAIRLY LARGE WAVE WITH TURNING IN THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD NOTED
BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 27W AND 32W


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
CMC Model [Re: Robert]
      #75807 - Sun Jul 15 2007 05:02 AM

For the 5th or 6th straight run. The CMC is still forecasting a Tropical System in the area of the Florida Straits moving westward over the next week.

At 96 hours the CMC take the system to a landfall on the Mid-Louisiana Coast near Terrebone Bay.
96hour 850mb Vorticity CMC Model

Other Model Runs here:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

At this time there is no other mention of this possible system in the various NCEP Discussions.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Heads Up?? [Re: danielw]
      #75808 - Sun Jul 15 2007 08:11 AM

Current mid to upper level low (TUTT?) located just to the north of Puerto Rico. Is moving SW toward the Turks, Caicos and Acklin Islands. 7 hour wv loop indicates the center of the system should be near 22.0N/ 70.0W at 11Z.
Wv Loop-Puerto Rico Area
GOES Puerto Rico Section

A quick check of the models for the 12Z time frame.
NOGAPS 850mb Vorticity for 06Z 071507

Notice: The NOGAPS position is about 6 hours behind the current position.

The CMC, GFS, UKMET and NOGAPS are all indcating a small 850mb vortice in the area north of Puerto Rico at this time.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

All of the above positions were on the 071507 0000Z model run.

CMC at 72 hrs...Mid GOM South of Pensacola
GFS at 72 hrs...Vortice just NE of the Bahamas
NOGAPS at 72 hrs...Small wave near the TX Coast
UKMET at 72hrs...Wave in the Western GOM

All are from still images at 72 hours. And I did not view the loops for continuity.


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Heads Up?? [Re: danielw]
      #75809 - Sun Jul 15 2007 09:06 AM

That's what I was trying to point out but I got corrected. UKMET had at least a wave with what the CMC was trying to make a TS out of. Now on the 0z runs, the CMC has dowgraded the storm to only a deppression in the GOM. It is something to watch, and know that anything can happen in the weather, we can't control it. So lets see what the next few runs show. That wave that models are hinting at is now near the Islands and has gained some convection but I expect that to decrease as shear right over it is 35-40 knots. Though as it continues to move, the shear will slowly decrease and maybe the CMC has a point like it did with Alberto (2006), Andrea, and Barry.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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BLTizzle
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 13
Loc: Eufaula, AL
Re: Heads Up?? [Re: allan]
      #75812 - Sun Jul 15 2007 03:28 PM

all of the 12Z runs don't have anything now except for the CMC which has a small low just north of puerto rico at 144 hours.

--------------------
Brandon in Eufaula, AL - experienced TS Alberto ('93) Opal ('95), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Katrina ('05) (I was in Tuscaloosa AL roughly 70 miles SSE of Columbus, MS)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Heads Up?? [Re: danielw]
      #75816 - Mon Jul 16 2007 10:59 AM

nice twist there... i dont think CMC is predicting anything today.. getting tired of looking lol

interesting twist at the edge of cuba there where it kept forming something the last few days

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-vis.html

like gitmo doing weather modification? seriously, is anything going on down there

the area looks way too unfriendly and can't imagine an ULL could work it's way down and the wave looks sheared

any thoughts, im happy to read them so give me some thoughts please

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1825
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Heads Up?? [Re: LoisCane]
      #75821 - Mon Jul 16 2007 07:09 PM

Might be -barely- more interesting along or near Texas the next few days, as two waves could approach the area. As mentioned, there is that one just to the east of that hungry ULL which has been eating it for lunch, and it appears something could creep up the eastern coast of Mexico, or also possibly form out in the middle of the GOM.

The outlier CMC has withdrawn its forecast of a tropical storm in the GOM this week, but still the NAM is now hinting that such a wave could produce some inclement weather out this way (along or near Texas). Caught the eye of our area NWSFO this afternoon, and thus was mentioned in the last Area Forecast Discussion, here. Thinking is, any window for this wave to initiate or help promote tropical cyclone formation will be rather limited, if at all. Might be more interesting should the ULL over Cuba weaken some, and begin working with, rather than against, the wave out there.

As noted elsewhere, SSTs in the western Caribbean and central GOM are quite warm, and to a significant depth. Should favorable atmospherics come together in that general region, there would be more than sufficient quantities of warm water to help fuel a deep warm core system out there.


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