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Tropical Storm #Dolly Pulling North of Forecast. TS Winds Extend up to 115 Miles From Center. Flhurricane.com
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 60 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3234 (8 y 10 m) (Wilma)
22.6N 94.8W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Nw at 13 mph
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Archives >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: id give it chances based on ships model [Re: MichaelA]
      #75965 - Mon Jul 30 2007 07:18 PM

98L is better organized as a surface feature this afternoon/evening...However, the storm activity around the center remains limited. One good long burst of thunderstorms around the center could push this over the edge and get it classified...but the upper and mid level flow does remain unfavorable for development and/or a lot of deep cenvective development around the center for extended periods of time. If 98L does push over the threshold, it will likely be on a subtropical level as satellite imagery depicts mid/upper level troughing close to the center and the front will be closing in. Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html (Don't forget to click on the HDW-mid and HDW-high radio buttons on top of the image). I'll give it a 20% shot (up from 10% last night) due to the increased organization/presentation of the low level structure throughout the afternoon. Otherwise, outside of the front, 98L will likely pass the northern extent of the Gulf Stream by the time it reaches the same latitude as New Jersey (around 39 degrees north), after that, the chances will be nada. Will be interesting to see if a suubtropical storm can fire off from this one, but the odds are against it.

As for 99L...I will bite my tounge as I did not expect to see this kind of activity along the ITCZ region as of last night. It was interesting/surprising to see something a little better organized down there today...and some of you may agree with that. Mean time, 99L needs to get a lot more thunderstorm activity going. Especially considering that it is in the deep tropics (at lower latitudes, strong thunderstorm cloud tops grow to a higher altitude), so at this point, there needs to be a deeper flare-up of thunderstorms to really get things going. With favorable conditions as we see here, that is definately possible and the expectation of slow development is not unreasonable.

Interestingly, even though the thunderstorms have not grown/become stronger around 99L, the low level structure of 99L has been improving. Thoughout the day, easterly winds to the north of it, northerly winds to the west of it, and westerly winds to the south of the system were readily apparent at the lower levels (Low level cloud motion around the periphery). What was not apparent this afternoon on the satellite was a southerly wind on the east side of 99L. As we have moved into the evening, the last visible frames did indicate that there may have been some north winds (versus the westward cloud motion I had been seeing through the afternoon along the ITCZ). The shortwave continues to echo that the eastern side of 99L may be showing signs of closing off a circulation (at the low cloud levels). 99L may be starting to break free of the ITCZ this evening...Link to Shortwave loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1088
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: id give it chances based on ships model [Re: dem05]
      #75966 - Mon Jul 30 2007 10:30 PM

98L is now Noname.

In all fairness to the guys at NHC, they could have pulled the trigger earlier this afternoon, but waiting around to see if it would be more tropical vs subtropical makes sense. I expect it will be referred to as tropical, given the deep central convection now present.

In many ways 98L/3 is very similar to Invest 91L from back on May 18, which peaked out at an estimated 40 knots by NRLs assessment. Perhaps a candidate for post-season reanalysis there, although its life was cut short, whereas 98L has persisted and grown steadily stronger (to about where 91L peaked just before giving it up to the parent trof and other unfavorable conditions.)


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: id give it chances based on ships model [Re: cieldumort]
      #75967 - Mon Jul 30 2007 10:37 PM

Hi mort, you are right and the word on the street is that 98L is getting classified at 11PM...It looks like I should have gone with odds of higher than 20%, huh...LOL! It almost looked like the low reformed toward the thunderstorms that were NE of the center earlier today. Shear has probably treaked downward a bit too. Those develoments of t-storms closer to the center probably got it over the NHC threshold...We will soon know if it is tropical or subtropical...Interesting!

In the mean time, 99L is trying to getmore in the way of deep thunderstorm development on the NE side (make no correlation to98L/Noname 3). This system looks like it is getting even better organized mid-levels, but still needs more thunderstorms (as in my previous discussion). However, it is in a favorable environment. It is possible that for a brief time at least, there may be two systems to track.

Edited by dem05 (Mon Jul 30 2007 10:40 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
New Thread [Re: dem05]
      #75969 - Mon Jul 30 2007 11:31 PM

New Thread...Tropical Depression 3

Please post there. Thanks.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1212
Loc: South Florida
Re: New Thread [Re: danielw]
      #75983 - Tue Jul 31 2007 09:44 AM

why isnt anyone talking about the tropical wave in the atlantic? where is that thread?

Chantal is worth watching for lack of anything better to do but I would think we should be talking about the Low that is part of the Tropical Wave in the Atlantic

I think this is worth watching even if I don't think this model will play out

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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mead9536
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Loc: Lake County Florida
Re: July Nearing End, Tropics Waking Up [Re: MikeC]
      #76019 - Wed Aug 01 2007 03:54 PM

anyone else notice that they've started an invest on the area off the west coast of florida?

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