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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
      #76027 - Wed Aug 01 2007 06:26 PM

6PM 2 August Update

The two systems being watched today continue to be the wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea (99L), and the area in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.



The area in the Gulf just hasn't organized much, and chances of anything happening there are still very low, but we're watching it.

99L Flared up quite a bit overnight , but has since died back down some, Recon made its way out there today and still found no low level circulation. However, this system's convection has been persisting quite well, and forecasted shear is expected to lighten up a bit in its path. '

As for the future path, A weaker system in the Caribbean tends to track further west, which would indicate more likely for a Central American, or Yucatan track. Most models are projecting it to continue moving that way, and I don't see anything to doubt that path currently.

Watch for another flare up overnight tonight, if this one sticks expect tropical development tomorrow, if it dies back down by noon tomorrow, it will hold off for a bit longer. If it continues to lose convection overnight, that along with the fast forward motion would keep it from developing and mainly make it a rain event.

Chances for Tropical Development of Wave in the Eastern Caribbean (99L)
Code:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-------*------------]



Chances for Tropical Development of Gulf System
Code:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[----*---------------]




Original Update
The month of August has begun, and now the areas to watch in the Atlantic have expanded greatly, and will do more so as the month goes on, in fact it's already active.



Tropical storm Chantal has gone extratropical and is no longer being tracked as it races away.

The system in the East Caribbean (99L) had aircraft recon check it out today, and didn't find any low level circulation, but it still has a chance to develop over the next few days. It has persisted, but not strengthened. It's beginning to enter a more hostile area for development, but it remains worth watching for several days.

Another system in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico has some potential for slow development, and should be watched for the proximity to land. It will likely enhance rainfall over the area. Currently it's just a trough of low pressure and would slowly develop, watching for persistence is the key here as well. During the day today it hasn't held together well, but we will still be watching it. Recon is tentatively scheduled to fly out there tomorrow afternoon.

See Clark's Blog below for more details on this Gulf System.

More to come as needed...

Chances for Tropical Development of Wave East of the Caribbean (99L)
Code:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-----------*--------]



Chances for Tropical Development of Gulf System
Code:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[----*---------------]




99L (Area East of Caribbean) Event Related Links


float4latest.gif stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2007&storm=4 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 99L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Radar Loops
Key West, FL Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Miami, FL Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Tampa Bay/Ruskin, FL Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Melbourne, FL Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Tallahassee, FL Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Northwest, FL Radar Loop (Latest Static)


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Bloodstar
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: MikeC]
      #76028 - Wed Aug 01 2007 06:37 PM

A few things on our erstwhile systems. 99L seems to be doing the convection pulse. it's a broad system and looks fairly skeletal, but convection appears to be back on the rise as night falls. The system is heading into the hurricane 'graveyard' so it may not take hold. However if it's classified tomorrow morning then I think it'll start the long trek and be around for a while. If it's not together by then, I doubt it will ever form into an organized system.

the GOM mess (blob) is interesting because the concentration of storms appears to be along the old frontal boundary with the NWS locating a low pressure center just on the tip of Louisiana. It certainly has a decent shot of getting together as the entire cluster of storms is going nowhere fast and appears to have a high pressure aloft to help organize the system rather quickly if conditions persist.

I think the odds 50/50 for each system. maybe better. They both look pretty durn healthy. (of course I still may be stuck in 2005 mode)

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: Bloodstar]
      #76031 - Wed Aug 01 2007 07:13 PM

I just don't see the GOM system getting its act together any time soon at all. 99L might stand a chance if it survives to enter the Western Caribbean, but I don't expect it to develop until then, if at all, based upon the current trend.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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allan
Weather Master


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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: Hugh]
      #76033 - Wed Aug 01 2007 10:12 PM

80% of wunderground bloggers have written off 99L.. but wait till it blows up later (if it does) lol. Only 20% give it a chance at developing. I'm still watching it, very closely because it really looks like it could blow tonight to probably about this mornings storm status. Still hard to tell where the circulation is if any, I give it a 50% for TD, I say recons a go in my opinion for tommorrow.. This reminds me of 90L from last year in August lol, big blow up, no closed circulation, same deal with this one, though I think it can make it. To tell you the truth, it did maintain at least some convection throught the day so it's not over yet, could get interesting in a few hours.
Oh and where's this 20-30 knots of shear that people are saying that is ripping the storm apart because in the map i'm looking at, there's only 5-10 knots of favorable shear.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: allan]
      #76034 - Wed Aug 01 2007 10:22 PM

One of the reasons some may have written it off is that it is now passing through the Hurricane Graveyard. History is not on its side at this point, unless it can make it into the western Caribbean.

It does appear to me to have rotation at least in some levels... but I can't pinpoint where the LLC is, if there is one. It's a shame the islands don't have an active radar.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Rabbit
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: Hugh]
      #76035 - Thu Aug 02 2007 12:05 AM

Quote:

It's a shame the islands don't have an active radar.




actually, there is a radar that shows pretty much the entire lesser antilles here , but there isnt really much to see in terms of rainfall


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: Rabbit]
      #76036 - Thu Aug 02 2007 07:55 AM

Quote:

Quote:

It's a shame the islands don't have an active radar.




actually, there is a radar that shows pretty much the entire lesser antilles here , but there isnt really much to see in terms of rainfall




I meant a decent radar - One that updates at the same frequency as the U.S. ones do (roughly every 6 minutes) so that the animation can show any circulation, if one is present.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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bigbelly
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: Hugh]
      #76037 - Thu Aug 02 2007 10:50 AM

You can check this site out to see some of the movement of the storm. Western Atlantic AVN Color Imagery

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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: MikeC]
      #76038 - Thu Aug 02 2007 11:23 AM

damn that to me would be the best looking defind sqaull ive ever seen in my life
would anyone else agree


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doug
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: bigbelly]
      #76039 - Thu Aug 02 2007 11:27 AM

Two comments from the satellite presentations of these two systems today:
The GOM is certainly at the least a very broad elipitical area of low pressure, but there may be a little tightening up in the eastern side of that elipises, to the SW of Apalachecola. Just something to watch. The forecast is for higher pressure in the Bahamas to exert over the entire eastern gulf in the next 36 hours so this thing may get pushed on shore before it really starts.
The Carribean system is much better organized and has grown since daylight. It seems to be grabbing moisture from the SE behind it and if so that is a sure sign of development. I guess the issue with this is no clear LLC, or stacking of an LLC with the midlevel, which is what was occurring a couple of days ago. I still don't see any reason why this won't be a storm before it plays out. trajectory seems to be WNW to Central America.

--------------------
doug


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scottsvb
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: doug]
      #76040 - Thu Aug 02 2007 11:48 AM

Its actually less developed then 36hrs ago.. yesterday it lost it LLC and pressures went from near 1008mb to 1011mb. It looks impressive right now..but there is only a convergence squall line from ENE winds and SE winds... also its being enhanced some by a upper low to its west. Unless the aircraft find a real tight LLC...this will have to wait till it passes Jamaica in 48hrs or so.

Edited by scottsvb (Thu Aug 02 2007 11:49 AM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: scottsvb]
      #76041 - Thu Aug 02 2007 11:54 AM

I admit I have not been able to stay on top of what actually is occurring in that system, so thanks for that Scott. But it seems that it is growing in the daytime which is different and I noticed some trailing and developing lines of convection ese and se of the system which may indicate some strengthening...is it being re-investigated today?

--------------------
doug


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cieldumort
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: doug]
      #76042 - Thu Aug 02 2007 12:20 PM

I think the odds are fairly good that recon finds a reasonable LLC today. Late last night I was able to find the (or one of the) old LLC, again, near 12N 61W. It was a tight little vortex, but very small, and weak. I believe it was Monday overnight when I was last able to discern a legit LLC. The pulsing nature of the convection up until today has not allowed any of them to take. Flareups at night, only giving up the ghosts come daybreak. The wave itself became the dominant player, and raced ahead.

Which is the interesting part. It appears to have been such a vigorous wave as it crossed the Lesser Antilles (wind gust to 58 mph in Barbados within one of its squalls, for example) that it quite possibly shoved away a good deal of the dry air ahead of it. Convection started increasing during the overnight. While we were sleeping, it would now appear that either that same tiny, weak LLC has nuzzled under the deep convection, or a new LLC has been attempting to reform.

The big changes I perceive today include
1) Convection continued to improve during daylight, rather than dissolve, although might be either waning or pulsing again at this time.
2) Noteworthy inflow feeding in from the N,NE,ENE,E, ESE, SE & S, and only a very limited amount of dry air ingestion off of South America. This is a bit unusual, and promising for further development.
3) Another impulse ahead of 99L, closer to Panama, has also served to limit the previously dry environment.

I might guess they have a slightly better than 50-50 shot of closing a surface low off somewhere, around or between 13N 67W and 14.5N 68W.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: doug]
      #76043 - Thu Aug 02 2007 12:27 PM

I answered my own question. Apparently the recon is going into the Carribean system today...recent QuickScat data confirms what Scott stated, no LLC and no westerly component to the wind at all. The area of most noted convergence from the NE and SE winds is pretty close to Venezuela.
The Aircraft is not going into the GOM today. Radar shows that this is mess...and multiple cyclonic spins exist: Near Jacksonville, close to the central west coast of Florida, and SW of Pensacola.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Thu Aug 02 2007 12:29 PM)


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Bloodstar
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: doug]
      #76044 - Thu Aug 02 2007 01:26 PM

Navy Issued a Tropical Cyclone alert for 99L. it may not have a LLC but it's really close. Looking at the RGB loop, I think the only think keeping the system an open wave is the relative speed of the system. As someone said a little while ago, it's the best looking wave I've seen in a very long time. And I honestly wouldn't be suprised if there was an LLC lurking around 15N 67W.

the GOM looks like a mess and won't be going anywhere fast, but you still have to keep an eye on it.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student


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Texas Cane Tracker
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: Bloodstar]
      #76045 - Thu Aug 02 2007 01:51 PM

Looking at the latest satellite imagery, it seems that if there is a LLC forming (with 99L) it appears to be at roughly 14N and 67.3W. Look at the last frame of the loop and there appears to be some decent rotation.

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Robert
Weather Analyst


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cieldumort [Re: cieldumort]
      #76046 - Thu Aug 02 2007 01:54 PM

cieldumort i think your right about giving up the goast at daylight. My thinking though is that winds from the cooler ocean naturaly excelerate toward the warmer land mass of central america a trough usually sits over venezuala untill the water of the carribean and adjacent atlantic reach their max and it kinda pulls the trough out from over land into the ocean later in the month and thats when you get your big carribean systems.
the trough being over land now is probbaly the only thing robbing this from inflow from the south not allowing it to close off.


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: La Nimo]
      #76049 - Thu Aug 02 2007 03:28 PM

99L appears pretty good to be in the eastern carribean graveyard ; yet, i do not see the 'dry environment' impacting its ability to survive and to continue churning westward . 99L appears to have anormous potential- at least as it appears on the sat imagery.

--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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La Nimo
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: jbmusic]
      #76050 - Thu Aug 02 2007 03:41 PM

First of all this is the 2nd time Recon has invest the Wave with no LLC. . also the speed of the system about 25 mph which in implies that it is just a strong wave at this time.

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ElizabethH
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: La Nimo]
      #76051 - Thu Aug 02 2007 04:06 PM

That wave in the Caribbean is moving! But in the last few frames, it looks like some storms are firing around what looks center-like but still no circulation. The storms could be just from diurnal heating, but if they can hang out into the overnight hours, then we could see something possibly a little stronger over the next 24-36 hours.

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