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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: ElizabethH]
      #76053 - Thu Aug 02 2007 06:44 PM

wow... out of town for a few days... Come back and boom... someone flipped the switch? I'm still thinking like i did on post #75998 ... 99L......I see recon could not find a closed low... but i expected as it passes the "caribbean graveyard" right now... but once past aruba... will the upper level pattern become favorable? Based on what i have seen some of the models.. yes and no. The long range keeps it moving to the west fast.... But i am curious if the ridge extending into the GOM, starts to turn back the north with time? Based on this evening sats.... its looking better, than earlier today...

Floater RGB ... Very nice shot before the sun goes down! Very nice banding this afternoon... Cirrus clouds expanding very nice.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 02 2007 06:50 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #76054 - Thu Aug 02 2007 08:11 PM

it looks to me like the overall cloud tops have warmed incredibly since the sun went down. The area where the LLC appeared to be is completely void of anything at all right now. It literally looks like the whole system was flattened.

Check that, it actually looks like all of the moisture - every last drop of it - has been pulled into South America. As the clouds pulled apart from 99L, I can see where they built on wel inland in South America. Weird!


Edited by Hugh (Thu Aug 02 2007 08:28 PM)


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: MikeC]
      #76056 - Thu Aug 02 2007 08:51 PM

A part of the latest AFD out of Tallahassee on the GOM mess.... this probably will prove to be much needed rain for the panhandle...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF
THE CWA EXTENDING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF. TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...EXPECT THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES TO SLIDE NORTHWARD
OVER AND TOWARD THE CWA. A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH JUST WEST-NORTHWEST OF TAMPA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BIG BEND TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. WILL SHOW LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION SOUTH OF MOBILE AND TRACKING IT NORTHWARD TOWARD PANAMA
CITY. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE CWA AND PLENTY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL
KEEP POPS NEAR CLIMO.

...Part of the TAE AFD @ 9:15pm...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
915 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
PRETTY MUCH A CLASSIC DISTURBED DAY ACROSS THE NE GULF AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. CURRENTLY...THE TROUGH IS LOCATED IN OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND EXTENDS INTO NE FLORIDA...SE GEORGIA AND ON INTO
THE ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH IS OBSERVED QUITE WELL BY THE LATEST
UPPER-AIR RUNS...TBW HAS DEEP SW FLOW...WHEREAS TAE HAS EASTERLIES
THROUGH 500MB. RADAR LOOP SEEMS TO INDICATE A SMALL CIRCULATION IN
APALACHEE BAY. LITTLE MOVEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. MY LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1010-1011MB LOW LOCATED IN THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Thu Aug 02 2007 09:24 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #76057 - Thu Aug 02 2007 11:00 PM

I'm starting to think that both this feature in the Gulf as well as 99L are not on the development path. While there's a weak surface low with the former in Apalachee Bay, there's just no real focusing mechanism along the broad trough across the northern Gulf -- nor are there any signs of one developing. This may end up just being a rain event for Florida and parts of the SE, a much needed rain event. With 99L, it's a lot like a storm a few years back -- others have said Chantal from 2001, though I haven't looked to see if that's truly the case -- in that it is moving too fast for the convective bursts to have much of an effect in terms of developing a surface circulation. With no surface circulation, convection can't persist and the system can't develop. With conditions a bit more unfavorable further west and no signs of the feature slowing...I'm thinking our development chances from either of the system can be knocked down just a tad.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: Clark]
      #76058 - Thu Aug 02 2007 11:27 PM

kinda agree with clark... this feature (99L) is just moving along way to fast i think for it to get its structure going... At this rate, it should be in the C. Amer. in 2 days... It's just amazing to see how strong that suface ridge is out in the atlantic... if this system was about 10kts a little slower....it would have a much better chance for the storms to build and close off a center..... But it looks to be getting hammered with the speed in movement and the upper level winds its starting to encounter ahead of it.
Not seeing any storm flaring tonight... atleast not as of 245utc

I'm curious to see what happens in the GOM... With this trough hanging around like it is, until it moves out in a few days... i would expect we get some flare up of storms tonight and another weak low to form and move northward.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #76059 - Fri Aug 03 2007 12:30 AM

I too agree with Clark, it could turn out a rainmaker or a storm like Chantal in 2001. I remember that storm, I think it came close to Hurricane status but hit Mexico too fast. Anyways, another burst of convection developing in the circulation, we'll see what morning brings, I doubt we'll see the blow up that we saw last night but, I could be wrong. If it blows up with a LLC, TD4 has arrived, but that's about 50/50 chance in my books. Funny how people say it's gonna be a quiet season when things are setting up for a dangerous season, You got shear lowering, Bermuda high setting up in a dangerous spot, and neutral to La Nina. Just doesn't make sense to say we are gonna have 10 storms or less. Again,m lol that's my opinion.. oh and if this isn't in the right forum, i'm sorry, go ahead and move to the proper forum

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: allan]
      #76060 - Fri Aug 03 2007 01:33 AM

i see what you talking about with the latest burst... interesting if you look at the storms... think there is about 3-4 storms flaring up... but look at there blow off pattern...to the SW or to the west from the east... the storms appear to go from south to north at the surface at the lower levels... atleast on the right side of what could be the low... almost like its trying to re-form to the northwest a little more? i think based just on sats.. maybe 14.5n 70.8w at 445z.... (just a rough guess)

RGB Floater two

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
Loc: fl
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: allan]
      #76061 - Fri Aug 03 2007 01:34 AM

there was never really any model support for the 2.. the CMC isnt a reliable model to choose from. I was never really interested and kept saying so. There is a chance though still 99l might get enough organization by the time it gets in the extreme western carribean by Saturday evening..but just a 30% chance. Otherwise nothing much really to get excited about.

scott


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: MikeC]
      #76062 - Fri Aug 03 2007 01:44 AM

Our two features aren't looking anything like they were late last night and into the first half of Thursday.

The mid-level circ in 99L is easy enough to spot tonight, with most of the deep convection, most of just about any convection, now removed. So, looks like if one is to track this as a coherent feature, which it is, I look to 14N 71W as the new starting point. As has been pointed out by many others, this puppy is on a tear.

If there was a closed off surface low today, it looks to have been inland over northern South America. Pressures in Aruba were markedly lower, and quite a bit of the deep convection looks to have been excited out that way, at the very same time 99L was shedding away convection as if it was layers of clothing on not only prom night, but prom night on the last night before the day the world ends.

I might be going out on a limb a little, but it does appear that the mid-level circulation is still enough intact, and upper-level outflow is still occurring, that should 99L possibly hit a sweet spot between here and central America, it could maybe still pull something off. A little burst of convection under that apparent MLC's center at this hour. I wouldn't even hold my dogs breath for anything to come out of it at this time, however.

The surface trof in the GOM does look to have closed off a very weak surface low in the northeast corner, but more and more today this entire feature has looked less and less potentially tropical, and more and more simply extratropical with a slug of tropical moisture wrapped up into itself.

Models still suggest that a warm core low could pop up either just south of Louisiana/Alabama/Mississippi, and/or also just W of central Florida. Sure looks like it has tried to do so in both locations, but upper-level winds over the entire surface trof have shifted from anticyclonic, to cyclonic, lending even more to that extratropical side, and far less to the tropical.

Early August. Based on 1944-2005 as a representative sample, the second named storm of a season doesn't form "on average" until August 6, and the first hurricane doesn't get called until August 14. We shouldn't be all that surprised if two features, which certainly looked rather promising, still don't end up pulling it together at this point in a season.


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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: cieldumort]
      #76065 - Fri Aug 03 2007 01:18 PM

Does anyone else see a little spin in the clouds just south of the TX/LA border where there is some storms firing up? Could this be where maybe something gets going? I know there has been talk about if something were to happen in the GOM it would be south of LA or the Florida panhandle. Just curious to know other's thoughts on what they see.

Shawn


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: MikeC]
      #76067 - Sat Aug 04 2007 12:23 AM

11PM Central Sat midnight Eastern.

After watching the Wave 99L perk up again all afternoon I feel confident in saying tonight that a renewed LLC is forming. Indeed 99L is also back up on NRL at this hour, back at its earlier upgraded max winds of 30 knots (estimated from when it was merely a vigorous open wave again)

I place the center of 99L now at roughly 15N 81W. Based on my own experience using the Dvorak technique, I would submit that it is running a CI of at least 1.5... and probably getting closer to 2.0 99L looks to me to be quite possibly on the precipice of being a legitimate depression at this hour. Interestingly, it would appear that it is on a fairly steady trajectory for central America - possibly to cross over into the Eastern Pacific.

If 99L continues this current trend for another 6 to 12 hours, *and before making landfall*, I believe it will be upgraded to number 4 in the Atlantic, possibly to oddly enough earn a number/name in the East Pac, should it stay on that course and remain enough intact. I think there possibly is a very small chance that it veers more to the NW, and could yet enter the southwestern GOM, and an ever slimmer chance that it veers even more to the NNW than NW. But if I had to place bets, I would put the greatest odds on a landfall somewhere around the border of Nicaragua and Honduras, to as far north as Belize.

The last official words from NHC are from the 10:30 EDT TWO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOVING
RAPIDLY WESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT DEVELOPMENT MAY BE HINDERED DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO LAND.

Will be interesting to see what they have to say at 2AM.


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: cieldumort]
      #76068 - Sat Aug 04 2007 12:28 AM

Actually, I think if it were to blow up later tonight, it could be upgraded as early as 11 a.m. tommorrow. Wow the circulation is indeed present and convection is swirling around it... Looks like 99L made a comeback and is also the best looking thing i've seen since last year. I expect a TD if this proccess continues, the big word is IF. Persistance is the key!

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: allan]
      #76069 - Sat Aug 04 2007 12:40 AM

So is 99l still tracking or has it slowed/stalled as mentioned on anothe blog?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
Loc: fl
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #76070 - Sat Aug 04 2007 01:09 AM

99l is going into Central America...it may be classified but even so...its just a rainmaker for Central America.

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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch [Re: scottsvb]
      #76071 - Sat Aug 04 2007 12:54 PM

99L is too close to land now--but perhaps this is our next area of interest???

Link

It is a large mass of afternoon convection from South America--& although it's a long-shot--if those storms persist, we might have something to keep an eye on.

http://img503.imageshack.us/img503/25/satom3.png


Take care...
WW-911


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