OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
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If I'm seeing it correctly, it looks like the GOM system is being pulled in to the same flow as the ULL. You can see that there is now a stream, or line, of moisture from the ULL to the system. It's starting to look more like a trough or something.
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
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Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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Sure looks like conditions are less favorable than more favorable in the Gulf.
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stormchazer
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Dean is starting to look weak at best and seems to be fighting off an infusion of dry air. Is it possible after all this that Dean may not strengthen much in the short term, or pull a "Chris" and dissipate?
WV Image Central atlantic
Edited by stormchazer (Tue Aug 14 2007 08:36 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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From what I see, seems like it is almost out of the dry air environment that has been plaguing it for the past 5 days since it left Africa.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/movies/m8g10split/m8g10splitjava5.html
I'd say weakening due to dry air infusion is wishful thinking. 
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allan
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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Quote:
Dean is starting to look weak at best and seems to be fighting off an infusion of dry air. Is it possible after all this that Dean may not strengthen much in the short term, or pull a "Chris" and dissipate?
WV Image Central atlantic
Dean is not weakening, even mets are saying it is strengthening, I believe it's going through some reorganization like I said earlier. Just because the convection dies out does not mean it's gone, the perosn above said it right, that's wishfull thinkning. It's long before we say goodbye to Dean. I expect a strong TS or even a hurricane tommorrow morning if what I think COULD happen tonight. Lets watch and see what happens, I doubt this would be the end of Dean.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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stormchazer
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Do not misunderstand, I am not suggesting Dean WILL dissipate, though it would be ironic considering the model support it has had since before its inception, just that it is struggling a bit. Of course it just went through a D-min and could well refire overnight.
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Jara
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Storm Hunter
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hmm... the lowest pressure i have seen on the GOM low.... is 1006mb... haven't seen a vortex... not sure if i missed it or not... winds not that bad neither... around 20-25 mph at the surface
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
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Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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That's because it looks like either the circulation is reforming further to the north or the low level circulation is going one way and the mid level is going another. You can see very clearly in the satellite pics that the circulation of the storms is wrapping further to the north than where the low level center is suppose to be. I'm not an expert on any of this so I don't have a clue as to what this means for the system in the GOM except that it is not going to be classified anytime soon...if at all.
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Rich B
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Satellite imagery would seem to show that the disturbance over the GOM is becomming somewhat better organised once again. The circulation looks to be elongated along a SW - NE axis, but with some decent banding now setting up. also, there has been quite a flare-up of convection near the centre. If this trend continues then i think we could see this classified some time this evening or tonight. not sure how much longer RECON will be in for, but if they are in for a while they might find hat a centre has finally closed off.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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HanKFranK
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dean is stronger than the advisories are saying, i'd reckon. the low clouds from the exposed eastern side were whipping around pretty good earlier. this afternoon the convection has stopped bursting as strong, but it'll pick back up in an hr or a few. no reason not to. models trending stronger with the ridging, but i'm thinking they're underplaying the later storm and how much it will be reacting to whatever ridge fracture is off the east coast. don't think it's going to stay in the caribbean and not get into the western atlantic, i mean. its faster movement means the threat window for a u.s. hit would be 21-23 august, for florida at least. it's going to run into stuff on the way, wherever in the u.s. it might end up going.
the gulf thing... interesting that they chose not to tag it a depression. if it's a borderline system i would have erred on the side of classifying it. obviously a closed center, obviously some deep convection. i get that it's not a tight center and all... but this thing has the kind of upper support that will cause it to strengthen very quickly once it gets together. don't see the advantage on not putting watches up for the texas coast now as opposed to 10 pm cdt or in a special advisory, or whenever. but yeah, it is marginal. just the same, odds extremely high that it's erin tomorrow.
nuff for now.
HF 2235z14august
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StrmTrckrMiami
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Hello,
I am new to this forum, mostly because I have just moved to Miami, Florida (Perrine) from Manchester, NH and I have some experience with tracking storms.
Just a quick question on Dean. When I was viewing the satalite images that were recently updated, I noticed that Dean was predicted to be a Catagory 2 when he hits Haiti/Dominican Republic. Out of curiosity, is it at all possible for Dean to strenghthen when he hits the waters between Cuba and Haiti? If so, could this result in the hurricaine curving twoard Florida? preferably Miami? If someone more experienced could help me on this, because I would like to be prepared, and I have never gone through a hurricaine before.
Thanks
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Essentially, it is too far out to know both it's track and intensity even when it reaches the Cuba area.
As is, intensity forecasts, the 5-day (Haiti area) range everywhere from a Tropical Storm through a strong Category 4. That's a huge range of possibilities. dropped the outliers and chose the average of those left to come up with a category 2.
As is being discussed in the Forecast Lounge, the track is equally up in the air. One run send it off into the atlantic, the next into texas, the next into the carolinas, and the next into flordia. There is no clue how powerful this is going to be or where it's going after about 2-3 days.
--RC
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Valandil
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Loc: Hamburg, Germany
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I agree with HF that they could have just taged it, to get some awareness since it is very close to land an will probalbly be a depression soon.
But atleast the Bouy 42001 agrees with the , it sits almost in the center of 91L. Preasures are falling and the winds are increasing, but wind at 14kts are not enaugh for a depression,yet.
I think it will develop somewhat faily soon before it eventually runs out of time.
Vala
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Loc: Manchester, NH
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Quote:
Essentially, it is too far out to know both it's track and intensity even when it reaches the Cuba area.
As is, intensity forecasts, the 5-day (Haiti area) range everywhere from a Tropical Storm through a strong Category 4. That's a huge range of possibilities. dropped the outliers and chose the average of those left to come up with a category 2.
As is being discussed in the Forecast Lounge, the track is equally up in the air. One run send it off into the atlantic, the next into texas, the next into the carolinas, and the next into flordia. There is no clue how powerful this is going to be or where it's going after about 2-3 days.
--RC
So since no one knows what this hurricaine might do, what is your professional suggestion? In my experience in tracking storms across the New England area, there was one storm that we never saw coming and that was hurricaine floyd, but there was one in the early 90's as well that devistated New England (Perfect Storm) As I am new to this area, I do not know what to do in hurricaines. In New Hampshire we did not have to prepare for these things because they happened on a rare occassion. Over the last few years, New Hampshire has seen some wierd weather impacts, starting with the Mother's day floods in 2006, to the late start of the snow season finally hitting us on Valentines Day, and then again to the April 2006 floods (Which in all three incidences, I was requested to assist in natural disaster stuff with the National Guard) So I guess if no one can tell, not even the storm trackers that have been tracking storms for years, than what should I do? My fiancee seems to think that this storm is no threat to us, but I seem to think otherwise. You see, I think that once this storm crosses through the Haiti/Domincan Republic, I think that this storm will follow along the outside of Cuba, and then once it hits the warm Atlantic/Gulf waters make an aim at Florida. You see, no one in Florida is concerned right now because the meterologists are all telling us different things. This is August, and if this storm is unpredictable now, than how are people in the US suppose to prepare for such a disaster? Does anyone want to help me, because I would like to know if you think this storm is going to be another Andrew?
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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Storm Hunter
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for those looking to follow the Hurricane Hunters... i'm looking at a few KML files for recon... that work with the HDOB and other recon msgs... i'll post the link soon.. Pretty neat stuff with sat images loaded over google earth... Kinda like the NAMMA Nasa project last year i posted about... I saw was using it in there last update on the GOM.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 14 2007 11:24 PM)
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Loc: Manchester, NH
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Quote:
for those looking to follow the Hurricane Hunters... i'm looking at a few KML files for recon... that work with the HDOB and other recon msgs... i'll post the link soon.. Pretty neat stuff with sat images loaded over google earth... Kinda like the NAMM Nasa project last year i posted about... I saw was using it in there last update on the GOM.
Could you please post this link? I am interested in keeping track of this storm
Thanks
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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It's really very strange that the recon flight did not find what is readily visible on visible satellite imagery - that's the nicest way I can put it. I suspect that, due to the fact that they didn't classify the system as a depression at 5pm, they never will - it will reach storm strength soon, if the last several IR images are any indication.
Is the plane staying out there, or has it gone back to Keesler? If it's still out there, maybe they will eventually figure out where the LLC is, and will put up watches and warnings.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Loc: Manchester, NH
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Quote:
It's really very strange that the recon flight did not find what is readily visible on visible satellite imagery - that's the nicest way I can put it. I suspect that, due to the fact that they didn't classify the system as a depression at 5pm, they never will - it will reach storm strength soon, if the last several IR images are any indication.
Is the plane staying out there, or has it gone back to Keesler? If it's still out there, maybe they will eventually figure out where the LLC is, and will put up watches and warnings.
What are you talking about? Are you simply stating that this is going to be a hurricaine because the recon flight did not find it? Now I am confused lol
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
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Loc: SWFL
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Quote:
So since no one knows what this hurricaine might do, what is your professional suggestion? In my experience in tracking storms across the New England area, there was one storm that we never saw coming and that was hurricaine floyd, but there was one in the early 90's as well that devistated New England (Perfect Storm) As I am new to this area, I do not know what to do in hurricaines.
You need to find the website for your county's EOC and follow their instructions. You can most likely find a free hurricane guide at any Publix or other grocery store, or call the local TV stations to find out where they're giving them away.
Build yourself a hurricane kit -- you can also find instructions on 's page at:
https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644929&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
They have a lot of links to different agencies.
You should be prepared for EVERY hurricane. Only until EOC and the announces the all-clear for your area should you not pay attention to where it is. I'm not saying board up now, I'm saying use common sense, get the information you need, and get ready. This is the time of year when we'll start seeing potentially dangerous happenings in the tropics.
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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richisurfs
Weather Guru
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Hi April, I've lived in Florida my whole life and I have seen so many storms and if I could say anything at this point it's that it is way too early to call if it's going to be another Andrew. You have to take these seriously and keep your eye on them because they are unpredictable but no one, who knows anything, would ever speculate at this point exactly what type of storm this will be or exactly where it is going to go.
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