Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
What are you talking about? Are you simply stating that this is going to be a hurricaine because the recon flight did not find it? Now I am confused lol
No. I'm stating that it's odd that the recon did not find a LLC when one is obviously present (from looking at visible satellite loops). It looks like this system that is not yet organized enough to be a depression is more organized that Dean. The says it is not defined enough to be categorized as a depression, though, but it looks like it is organizing rapidly.
There is a closed circulation, and the Hurricane Hunters have found it, but the wind speeds are not sufficient for classification. Always remember that Recon is a FAR superior tool than Satellite Imagery; what you see, or think you see on sats isn't always there, but recon 99% of the time is solid data. JK
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by wxman007 (Tue Aug 14 2007 11:37 PM)
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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They just showed a cool graphic on Abrams & Bettes showing the recon flight path back and forth.
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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So, as I understand the nature of the Hebert Box, if a hurricane passes through the Hebert Box (E and SE of PR) then more likely than not, the track would most likely curve towards the southeast US. Is there any other significance associated with the Hebert Box? I beleive that in the short term, Dean is tracking to go through this enigma.
Any feedback on any significance?
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 318
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91L does look to be getting better organized. Maybe classification will come this evening. In any event, south or central Texas may
get a lot of rain.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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i'm looking for that one KML file there using... there is a couple of them out there...
Recon flew at 787 feet for a good few hours, nice cross pattern of flying the system.... but with recent blow up of convection.... i think that we may have a TD soon.
try this one if you have google earth
GE kml
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 14 2007 11:51 PM)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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When I am speaking to civic and school groups about hurricane preparedness, I ask this simple question:
"If I came over to your house right now and turned off your power and gas and drained your car of gasoline, do you have EVERYTHING you need to survive for at LEAST 3 days without any intervention from anyone?"
If you can't answer yes, then get to the store and get the things you need so that you can.
As far as property preparation, the American Red Cross has a wealth of tips about that on their website.
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Jason Kelley
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Hebert's box is important to South Florida hurricane history, but it primarily is talking about major hurricanes. If a MAJOR hurricane goes through that box that means it has a very high likelihood of hitting South Florida. So, we need to watch if Dean becomes a major hurricane if and when it might pass through that box.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Aircraft (AF305) just went on a west to east course... well south of the blow up of convection.... and now are heading SW from the west to east pass... at about 757 feet... winds are about 27mph at flight level... based on what i have seen... i don't think they can close off a center? the new convection is well to the north of where there at right now.... well seen what next HDOB data brings...
Just to show you what i am seeing:
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 00:03Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 28
Observation Time: Wednesday, 00:03Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 23.0N 90.5W (View map)
Location: 151 miles (243 km) to the NNW (338°) from Mérida, Yucatán, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 260 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 26°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 24°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Broken clouds (5/8 to 7/8 cloud coverage)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1007 mb (extrapolated)
Estimated Surface Wind Direction: Bearing was unavailable.
Estimated Surface Wind Speed: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Aug 15 2007 12:08 AM)
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tweather
Unregistered
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looks like dean is weaking dry air intraining the center if this dont filter out dean could be down graded to depression or even a open wave wind shere is also a factor dont look good in the short term good news for everybody
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Quote:
So, as I understand the nature of the Hebert Box, if a hurricane passes through the Hebert Box (E and SE of PR) then more likely than not, the track would most likely curve towards the southeast US. Is there any other significance associated with the Hebert Box? I beleive that in the short term, Dean is tracking to go through this enigma.
Any feedback on any significance?
There have been only 2 major hurricans to hit South Florida that did not enter the Herbert box.Wilma went through box #2.Andrew did not enter box #1 but it did skirt it.The numbers don't lie,I always look at the Herbert box.Frances and jeanne in 2004 went through box #1.The good news is if a storm does not go through one of the boxes,it will most likely miss south Florida.Now ,it does not have to be a major cane when it goes through the box.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by ftlaudbob (Wed Aug 15 2007 12:13 AM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Aircraft (AF305) just went on a west to east course... well south of the blow up of convection.... and now are heading SW from the west to east pass...
If they are already well south of the blow up of convection (which on visible imagery looked to be where the LLC was), and now they're heading FURTHER SW, how can they hope to close off a low? They would have to fly NORTH.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
looks like dean is weaking dry air intraining the center if this dont filter out dean could be down graded to depression or even a open wave wind shere is also a factor dont look good in the short term good news for everybody
It's not going to get downgraded, It's been sheared a little, but man does it have an impressive low level circulation center. As long as it keeps that, it'll re intensify pretty quickly.
The quickscat shows it 
It just means if when the shear it's encountering now goes down a bit, it'll flare up quite a bit. If it gets disrupted, it may still yet fall apart, but I wouldn't bet on it. Watch how it persists overnight. Already convection is firing up again near the center of circulation.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Quote:
looks like dean is weaking dry air intraining the center if this dont filter out dean could be down graded to depression or even a open wave wind shere is also a factor dont look good in the short term good news for everybody
First of all, use punctuation. I have very little idea of what you just said. Second of all, convection has begun to blow up around the COC again so wheres your basis?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
Third of all, Dean is not getting downgraded to an open wave looking like that.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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here you go hugh... just i am going on based on there flight path... they have radar on and they have a better look at the system... but i would expect that there about to wrap up and head in... i bet with one pass through that new convection...
Recon Vortex drops/flight path
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Aug 15 2007 12:33 AM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
here you go hugh... just i am going on based on there flight path... they have radar on and they have a better look at the system... but i would expect that there about to wrap up and head in... i bet with one pass through that new convection...
Thanks, that helps alot, really, although I would have expected a flight that passed through the western side of the convection... but those details show them passing through where I would have expected the LLC to be. Satellites can be very deceiving apparently.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
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Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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I'm confused...how do you not take that flight through the huge blow up of storms when the system is this close to land? It's easy to see that those storms are right over some sort of circulation.
Shawn
Please take all the question asking to the Ask/Tell Forum or use the PM feature from here on in...
Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed Aug 15 2007 12:43 AM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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there actually flying through there now... but i would expect them to be heading in soon... FUEL load should make them head in now. They went from directly south of what i think was the center to directly north... through that convection.... **correction on the last pass through what i think would be the center... that got down to about 530 ft.... like a one last look... there back up higher now... and flight level winds are going up! around 35mph
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Aug 15 2007 12:46 AM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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alright.. just as i posted last msg... looks like there done... heading in for the night until next recon...
**based on HDOB 48**
There at about 5,648 meters (~ 18,530 feet) and doesn't look like they closed off a center? Pretty neat, in about 10 mins from 0035 to 0045z they went from 550ft to 18,550ft... lowest pressure i saw, will check is about 1006mb... and while flying at 600ft, air temp was around 80 degree's.... highest flight level winds i seen were at 35 mph at 1,000ft... (will double check that)
**HDOB 49 puts them at 300 miles due south of New Orleans heading in... at alt. 24k ft.... they have flight level winds coming from the SE at about 30mph... good tail wind heading home?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Aug 15 2007 01:00 AM)
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Fla. native in Ala.
Registered User
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Posts: 7
Loc: Montgomery, Al.
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As someone who grew up 20 miles south of Ft. Pierce (and never had a hurricane experience until I moved to Ala. with David, Frederick and Opal), I can tell you this site is invaluable for information on hurricanes. My sister, who lives in Stuart, went through and Jeanne at my house in Montgomery, Alabama. All the TV stations online were predicting landfalls in Vero and West Palm. There were those on this site that predicted both storms would make landfall through the St. Lucie inlet and they were right. My parents and other sister who stayed in Stuart were sorry they did. If they tell you to get out , do it early and just take your laptop and monitor this site. This site is really for professionals who know hurricanes to give the rest of us advice. Just monitor and learn!
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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just took a good look at Dean... while convection is coming back, he is still getting hit the NE shear (can see it in IR shots).... notice convection is not banding out... so another 12-24hrs of this, then i think we will see him grow and become better structured... I'm thinking now... based on models and forecast pattern... this is a Caribean system... after that... its too far out to tell... i don't think that weakness between the two ridges will be weak enough to allow him to skip the islands... but the models may change... need another 24hrs worth of runs to see...
as for the GOM... i would expect this to be at TS at landfall.... but not that strong at landfall.... (and atleast a TD by 5am package in the morning)..... the conditions are getting better for it now... the ULL is moving over TX... and the GOM temps ahead are VERY WARM... the ULL was the only thing holding this from becoming a TS in the GOM today.... **(shear)**
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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