Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Hey Scott,
Reading your posts you seem 90% sure that Dean will NOT be a East Coast Event.
It looks like Dean will pass through "Heberts Box":
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm
Doesn't this statement apply?
"Every Major Hurricane that passed through Box 2 late in the year, hit the Florida peninsula prior to 1950. Hebert says that a Hurricane does not have to pass through these boxes to hit, but if they do "you better pay attention"
Looking at the Visible:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
It sure looks like to me that Dean might be making a jog N.
I think the center of Dean will be N of the next Forecast point looking at the above link.
It's my GUESS, but I still think that Dean will be a S Florida event. When Monday gets here we will all know for sure.
(disclaimer) by NO means am I trying to be acusitory, I value your opinion, and have been reading your posts for years.
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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I haven't been able to see when RECON will be back in Erin...or arethey there now? I haven't seen any new info from RECON yet.
Shawn
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MissouriHurricane2008
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 14
Loc: Missouri, USA
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looking at a satellite image of dean, the center circulation is becoming defined. seen a couple of computer models take this storm to a cat 3. i can see it going higher its going to go into some very warm water. also seen some historical tracks of past storms in relation with dean those storms get in the cat 4 cat 5 area. need to watch this one very carefully
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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To me, it looks like Dean is bobbling, wobbling, or tracking north of the projected path.
It's too soon to tell if this trend will maintain. It could just as easily jog south again. Or speed up. Or stall. Or ... whatever.
I would suggest staying calm and reasonable -- this storm will most likely wobble, shimmy, and shake itself back and forth across the "LBL" for quite some time until it's close enough to the and GOM for models to give us more reliable data.
At this point, anything beyond three days out is totally guesstimation on the part of the software used to generate models.
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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9 out of 10 that pass thru impact S Fl...maybe Dean will be that 1 that misses if he passes thru it. Andrew & Betsy didn't pass thru & who can forget them?
As an interesting aside based on the earlier spaghetti models they went thru the 2nd Hebert Box. The 2nd box only applies to a developing or moving storm before Oct 1.
Charley '04, "04, & '05 were our most recent ones.
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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 52
Loc: Treasure Coast FL
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Isn't the Hebert box simply a statistical tool developed before sophisticated models were available? A bright forecaster looked at historical storm tracks and recognized most Florida storms came through a certain area of the ocean. But each storm is unique and lives in a unique environment. I'd trust the analytical models based on the real world environment more but I'll definitely keep an eye on storms transiting the Hebert box.
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Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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Definitely looks like rain here. Sky clouding up and temperatures are cooler. Even had some wind. Looks like some of the outer
bands of Erin will be coming in soon. Rain or no rain, we are just glad for the cooling off.
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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Beaumont,
Do you see anything suggesting the center of circulation reforming further north? I'm curious if they were wrong about that and if they really will extend the watches and warnings.
Shawn
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Yes, Hebert's box is an artifact of the days well before our numerical models could even begin to correctly forecast storm motion. Paul Hebert of the noticed that a lot of storms that happened to pass through that area did or could impact S. Florida, and it has existed sort of as a "benchmark" ever since. As you mention, however, it's best suited as just a tool -- our numerical guidance and understanding of the atmosphere and tropical storms are both much improved today and should be relied upon moreso than a climatological forecast.
As a note for everyone today, please refrain from making the so-called "one line" posts (like "I think we could see something in <insert location here> from <insert storm here>.") If you have a personal question to ask another user, please use the Private Messaging feature of the boards instead of asking it here. Of course, if it's a question related to the storms, their tracks or impacts, or something of that nature, please feel free to ask those here. (And discuss the storms here, too!) Thanks all...
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Quote:
I haven't been able to see when RECON will be back in Erin...or arethey there now? I haven't seen any new info from RECON yet.
Shawn
Hi Shawn,
You can always check the recon schedule for the given day at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?. Recon was slated to arrive in the storm again about 2p ET today and stick around for much of the afternoon. Judging from the latest reports, it looks like a plane just took off within the last half-hour and is heading that way now.
You can see the full suite of recon products at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml.
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BlueBayouLA
Unregistered
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Hi, I am new here, found this site a few days ago. Great information given here. I live in Louisiana and do have a question about the high pressure that is currently sitting on top of us here in the southeast. Does anyone know if this high pressure will eventually move away and allow Dean to hit the central gulf coast? The reason I ask is, I remember in 2005 and she rode the high pressure to the La/Tx border as the high pressure kept moving farther east. Is there any indication this might happen this time? Thanks in advance!
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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OUSHAWN,
NOAA is also usually slightly delayed (5-10 minutes) in getting the Recon data up on their website. However, they broadcast it immediately, and Ohio State puts it up as soon as they get the broadcast.
You can reference it here:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/
URNT12.KNHC is the main vortex recon message. The other URNT's also deal with the recon mission, but are harder to read or just informational.
I'm sure Storm Hunter could give you more detail - he knows much more about the recon than I do.
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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Thanks Clark. Doesn't look like they will find much when they finally get to her,though. She is looking pretty wick right now. I wonder if it might be downgraded back to a depression again.
Shawn
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Quote:
Hi, I am new here, found this site a few days ago. Great information given here. I live in Louisiana and do have a question about the high pressure that is currently sitting on top of us here in the southeast. Does anyone know if this high pressure will eventually move away and allow Dean to hit the central gulf coast? The reason I ask is, I remember in 2005 and she rode the high pressure to the La/Tx border as the high pressure kept moving farther east. Is there any indication this might happen this time? Thanks in advance!
It's really too early to tell as of now. Dean, even moving as fast as it is now, is still at least 6 days from the Gulf of Mexico. A lot can change over the course of those 6 days, though right now the various computer models are becoming more consistent on showing a track toward the western Gulf of Mexico as it rides along the south side of one of those ridges of high pressure. It's possible that a weakness develops in the ridge and allows Dean to ride around its western periphery, but that's beyond the range of reasonable forecast skill and accuracy. For now, just stay tuned -- once we get to the weekend, we should know more.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Quote:
Thanks Clark. Doesn't look like they will find much when they finally get to her,though. She is looking pretty wick right now. I wonder if it might be downgraded back to a depression again.
Shawn
Hi Shawn,
I'm curious as to why you think that? To me, Erin looks pretty healthy on satellite right now, at least nominally so for a tropical storm. What are you seeing that suggests otherwise?
Just as a friendly reminder, posts like yours above are better suited for the "Forecast Lounge" forum (accessible via the forum under the "COMMUNICATION" sidebar at left, underneath the storm images) unless you provide some reasoning behind your thinking. Even if you're relatively new at following tropical systems, at least a little bit of reasoning helps -- and can go a long way in helping you learn about these systems.
Thanks!
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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I think Forcaster Blake writes the first sentence perfectly:
BASED ON WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW ABOUT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE DO NOT
SEEM TO BE TOO MANY INHIBITING FACTORS TO A FUTURE INTENSIFICATION
OF DEAN. GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN COMBINATION WITH VERY DEEP WARM
WATERS...THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL
HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF...AND LGEM MODELS.
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LisaC
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 39
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I guess we will see hurricane watches up for St. Lucia and maybe as far north as the virgin islands tomorrow. Not sure how far up the island chain they will go if the westard motion is expected to continue tomorrow, however from my elementary plotting tools (a map and a pencil  ) I see the storm just slightly north of the predicted path right now.
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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Clark,
I certainly appreciate your knowledge and advise. The latest advisory points out what I was alluding to...the system's center is poorly defined and it keeps wanting to reform the main center of circulation. Now I know stronger storms (hurricanes) like to reform their eye sometimes but this is barley a tropical storm and it has been doing that which is why I said that I thought it was sick.
Shawn
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Quote:
Clark,
I certainly appreciate your knowledge and advise. The latest advisory points out what I was alluding to...the system's center is poorly defined and it keeps wanting to reform the main center of circulation. Now I know stronger storms (hurricanes) like to reform their eye sometimes but this is barley a tropical storm and it has been doing that which is why I said that I thought it was sick.
Shawn
Well, weak systems are also known to do that -- much more often than mature hurricanes, in fact. (I think you might be thinking of eyewall replacement cycles moreso than true center reformations.) These jumps/reformations can be brought about by a number of things, often associated with convection and mid-level circulation centers. These systems have a tendency to try to be as vertically coherent (upright) as possible and, if a new dominant mid-level center forms in response to a convective burst, the LLC will often to try to reform underneath it. It's generally a sign of a storm trying to intensify than one that is weakening.
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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You're right, I was thinking of the eyewall replacement cycles. Well, that's why I value your opinion so much. I have learned something new today.
Shawn
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