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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
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Posts [Re: Clark]
      #76464 - Wed Aug 15 2007 05:34 PM

Not directed at anyone in particular.

Please use the PM option to send mesages to another user/ member. Posting directly to another user/ member could result in the post being sent to the graveyard.

The site is fairly busy right now and it take quite a bit of time to sort the posts from the messages. Thanks.

As of right now there are over 400 people viewing the site.


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danielwAdministrator
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GOM [Re: danielw]
      #76467 - Wed Aug 15 2007 05:42 PM

I've widened the sat shot at the top of the page to permit viewing of what appears to be a secondary LOW forming in the Eastern GOM. Not enough data to determine what level it is at right now.

Front/ trough moving into the Northern GOM appears to have initiated a vortice in the area due south of Appalachicola. Near 26.0N/ 86.5W-quick estimate.

May be diurnal in nature... but it's unusual to see any convection of this nature on the backside of a tropical system.

Just something else to look at for now...
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
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Re: GOM [Re: danielw]
      #76471 - Wed Aug 15 2007 05:55 PM Attachment (254 downloads)

Okay Daniel, you've got me confused. I did a screenshot of what you posted -- are you talking the smaller area at the top where I circled, or the larger area that I circled? Is this a feature the NWS/NHC is talking about?



--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.

Edited by madmumbler (Wed Aug 15 2007 05:56 PM)


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twizted sizter
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Re: GOM [Re: danielw]
      #76472 - Wed Aug 15 2007 05:56 PM

A met on S2K is posting the latest run of the GFS...at the 30hr mark it shows a low in the central Gulf. I wonder if it is this feature? What effect would/will this have on Dean as well as any weakness in the ridge? Although as of now this is in the E Gulf this feature at 30 hrs is W of this?

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HanKFranK
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lone star abuse, caribbean trouble [Re: danielw]
      #76473 - Wed Aug 15 2007 05:56 PM

the rainy summer in texas is about to pay dividends for flooding concerns. erin should pile a good bit of misery on what has been a constant theme for texans. in spite of the suddenly impressive satellite appearance this morning the center remains disorganized and not very strong. oftentimes these western gulf systems do that right up to landfall, but quickly improve just before going in and on the way in. erin has another 12 hr or so unless the center jumps nw, so the forecast intensity should probably stay put. just a good thing it didn't develop a defined center yesterday morning... right now an intensifying hurricane would be coming closer instead.
dean is a little fellow, but looks healthy and ready to keep getting stronger. i'm really surprised that none of the caribbean island governments are issuing watches... it should be on them inside 48 hr. model consensus keeps dragging dean further west and faster. i keep looking at that ridge fracture that cuts off and backs west, that's supposed to not affect the storm... but am not convinced that it's totally right. think the consensus is too far left, and that the larger caribbean islands have more to worry about... but that's just an opinion. in any case the forecast intensity at a scary cat 4 looks right as rain, not the least bit surprising. my initial nerves were for florida in some capacity, but not a whole lot of the number-crunchers think so right now. the g4 will be out there eventually and toss in some better readings, and then we'll have a really good idea who has to deal with this sucker.
out behind dean the waves are following in a conga, with another well defined one just west of the cape verdes, and another good one coming off. seems to be enough separation from speedy dean for the trailer... i'd expect another one out of the current two followers (models resolving them funny and many seem to be merging them). keep that on the back burner while dean comes a-calling on the caribbean.
HF 2156z15august


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hurricaneguy
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Re: lone star abuse, caribbean trouble [Re: HanKFranK]
      #76476 - Wed Aug 15 2007 06:23 PM

Nice informative post Hank! I know you said you think the NHC is to far to the left on the track now but doesn't this storm look like a Central America problem and not a United States from current models? Any body care to fill me in on why the GOM should still be worried? I thought this ridge will be dug in like a tick.

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Aug 15 2007 06:42 PM)


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allan
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Re: lone star abuse, caribbean trouble [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #76478 - Wed Aug 15 2007 06:41 PM


Nice informative post Hank! I know you said you think the NHC is to far to the left on the track now but doesn't this storm look like a Central America problem and not a United States from current models? Any body care to fill me in on why the GOM should still be worried? I thought this ridge will be dug in like a tick.




Look at the satellite in teh Bahamas, a strong trough is digging a bit south and could be what is causing a more WNW movement on Dean. I agree with Hank on this one, I can't see it moving to Mexico.. I see this more like a Dennis/Ivan storm. Also we thought Ernesto last year was going into the GOM, but then while it was in the carribean, the storm veared NW and headed to the East Coast. In this explaining that ANYTHING can happen with Dean, it could still hit the East Coast, could be a category 4-5 in the GOM, or could actually miss the USA and hit Mexico, It's still out to sea right now.. lets see what happens.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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HanKFranK
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Re: lone star abuse, caribbean trouble [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #76479 - Wed Aug 15 2007 06:45 PM

i think they've gone a little too far to the left. not a whole heck of a lot, though. think the models are splitting the upper trough too fast. pattern should amplify just a tad due to all the energy the tropics are adding to the equation. not guaranteed, but that's usually what happens.
don't think it's an east coast problem, anyway... but the straits of florida over to the gulf coast should mind what dean is doing.
HF 2245z15august


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Hugh
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Re: lone star abuse, caribbean trouble [Re: HanKFranK]
      #76483 - Wed Aug 15 2007 07:05 PM

Quote:


don't think it's an east coast problem, anyway... but the straits of florida over to the gulf coast should mind what dean is doing.





Unfortunately, I completely agree with you on this one, HF. But, beyond the straits of Florida and "gulf coast", that's a big area, which could include Mexico, all the way over the Ft. Myers to Key West. Do you think it's going to stay in the eastern GOM, or continue on a west course through to Texas like Erin is doing? Or is it too early to tell (obviously is it, but I'm looking for your opinion here).

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Deanie [Re: Hugh]
      #76484 - Wed Aug 15 2007 07:14 PM Attachment (326 downloads)

Looks like Dean is going to complete an eyewall in the relative near future.

See Attachment

Edited by CaneTrackerInSoFl (Wed Aug 15 2007 07:15 PM)


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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: lone star abuse, caribbean trouble [Re: Hugh]
      #76485 - Wed Aug 15 2007 07:17 PM

Man, I must be looking at satellite pics way too much because it sure looks like that Erin is trying to reform a center further north again and it is headed right towards Port O Conner. I thought I saw this is the last few visibles. Please tell me I'm seeing things.

Shawn


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byrdlh
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Reged: Wed
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Re: lone star abuse, caribbean trouble [Re: allan]
      #76486 - Wed Aug 15 2007 07:31 PM

What is out there that could turn the storm North if it reaches the gulf? Bad time for a storm, school's starting next week. Kids already wishing for hurricane days. I know that the high over the SE right now is what is steering Erin, if it stays in place would the N gulf area be spared?

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
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Re: Deanie [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #76487 - Wed Aug 15 2007 07:36 PM

It would surprise me a great deal if Dean is not upgraded at 11pm, at the latest. The overall system has begun to grow tonight, the organization appears to be quite good, with banding in almost all directions, and the estimated pressure is down to 994, which is indicative of a Cat 1 hurricane.

It also appears to have resumed a basically due west motion early this evening, right on course.

byrdh: It's way too soon to tell what, if any, impact we'll have here along the coast (I'm a bit west of you, in Valparaiso). The local mets say we'll know more by the weekend, but I think it may be into next week before we really have a handle on the ultimate destination for Dean.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Wed Aug 15 2007 07:39 PM)


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cieldumort
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Re: Tropical Storm Erin Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #76491 - Wed Aug 15 2007 08:02 PM

All indications are that Erin has -nearly- opened up into an open wave this afternoon. The constant re-centering having exacted a cost on the formative cyclone's potential. All along Erin has been a somewhat generous call, but not outlandishly so. Simply, the mid level circulation has outrun and outperformed the low levels, at the cost of leaving the low levels in the wakes to play catch-up. Erin still has a chance to become something closer to a full-on tropical storm overnight tonight, taking advantage of the nocturnal max.


Once inland, it is very possible that Erin slows down, spins down, and produces overnight core rains. Most models are supportive of this scenario in at least some fashion.

A further concern for us in Texas, Dean may want to generally follow any left-over troffiness out here.

Please
To reiterate what others have already said, please put the one-liners and chat room posts in the appropriate forums, or private messages.


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Kevin
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Re: lone star abuse, caribbean trouble [Re: byrdlh]
      #76492 - Wed Aug 15 2007 08:03 PM

Quote:

What is out there that could turn the storm North if it reaches the gulf? Bad time for a storm, school's starting next week. Kids already wishing for hurricane days. I know that the high over the SE right now is what is steering Erin, if it stays in place would the N gulf area be spared?




That is exactly what we are having trouble seeing at this point. Those living along the Gulf Coast are just simply going to have to know that forecasters (and models alike) will not have a better grip on Dean and the accompanying synoptics until Saturday, at the earliest.

And the pattern that is in place with Erin could easily change by next week (and will).


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Posts [Re: danielw]
      #76493 - Wed Aug 15 2007 08:07 PM

Second request. With a large number of posts being directed at another user/ member. It's taking quite a bit of time to sort through the posts and messages being sent on the Talkback thread.

Please use the PM-private message function/ option to send a message to another user/ member.

Further use of the Main thread for personal messages can result in the post being sent to the Graveyard.
With the season ramping up rapidly. You will find that it's easier to read the thread without the personal messages in it.

Thanks


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Storm Cooper
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Re: The Rules.....again.. [Re: MikeC]
      #76494 - Wed Aug 15 2007 08:07 PM

The Main Page posting has been getting a bit messy and now that things have picked up some I think it would be a really good idea for a review of the posting rules. DanielW gave a heads up a while back regarding this. Posts are going to be moved or deleted if needed to keep the Main Page on track from this point forward. Pay close attention to the "one line" posts and any post that could be done with a PM to the poster. It is not that hard, really.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Dean [Re: Hugh]
      #76495 - Wed Aug 15 2007 08:07 PM

I follow the old rule- models are good for extrapolating known data at varied points in time; however, with each update you get new variables that affect the equations- therefore, the solutions, therefore causing newer tracks. I will believe the modeled tracks when Dean is at least 3 days from impacting my area.

Until then- prepare and enjoy the genesis of what will be a good show and hope for the best - to all of us!

--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Wed Aug 15 2007 08:17 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Dean [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #76501 - Wed Aug 15 2007 09:03 PM

Appears Erin is back down to Tropical Depression strength based on recon.

Summary:
20 kt winds
1004mb pressure; no central structure

Satellite imagery shows deep convection reforming over the storm now, so it may yet restrengthen before it reaches land.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/URNT12.KNHC

039
URNT12 KNHC 160055
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/00:42:40Z
B. 26 deg 19 min N
095 deg 11 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 20 kt
E. 23 deg 004 nm
F. 083 deg 021 kt
G. 004 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP 1004 mb
I. 24 C/ 457 m
J. 26 C/ 456 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.03 / 3 nm
P. AF305 0305A ERIN OB 10
MAX FL WIND 37 KT NE QUAD 20:09:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
MAX FL WND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 25KT @ 00:44:20Z


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Dean [Re: Random Chaos]
      #76504 - Wed Aug 15 2007 09:42 PM

Very deep convection firing over the core of Erin now. TRMM microwave missed the core and the other recent satellite microwave overpasses aren't high enough res. It might still be TS strength at the 11pm update due to this convection flare up.

---

Dean is still wrapping convection nicely and appears to be filtering out the last of the dry air. Microwave shows the wrapping clearly:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/AT...N-492W.59pc.jpg


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