Beach
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Yeah,
Looking at the Navy site, they had Dean crossing 65W before it got to 15N
Looking at the Visible:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
It sure looks like it is going to pass 15N before 64W !
I'm thinking the next run at 5pm will bring Dean OVER Jamaica.
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Texas Cane Tracker
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 21
Loc: Tomball, TX
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Can someone please give me a link to a site where the track/intensity models are updated frequently?
Thanks.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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wow... watching AF recon... i like reading the SFMR - Peak (10s Avg.) SFC. Wind on the HDOB obs from 48-52... I could see that it had stronger winds on the last past through there... there heading almost due north now... I hope someone took some pics of the eye in the plane... be some nice shots to see.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Right now from the 12Z runs..most have gone more NE by about 100 miles on average for the first 60hrs..after that..models spread on a bend back to the west near Jamaica or just north of there to a brush with Cuba and crossing the western part. I wouldnt get worried if I was in the Keys or the central or eastern gulf yet unless the next couple model runs continue a more northward track. Again as I always say...models change from run to run and anything more then 3 days out decreases the accuracy. With Dean anything more then 48hrs cause by then how will the upper low situate.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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this eyewall replacement cycle will be very interesting. Concentric eyewalls have already been reported so it must be about to commence. When you get a really large eye after one of those it seems the pressure really starts to drop like a rock (like , and more recently Flossie in the Pacific)
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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I was just going to post the same observation about Deam crossing 15N sooner than the OFCL track. Models will have to keep initializing further north.
Another thing I have been noticing, I hope this doesn't sound too unscientific, is that Hurricanes that I have watched in the past traveling around the periphery of a strong ridge, like this one, show more signs of impingment in the outflow -almost giving a flat top appearance to the storm. Where Dean appears to be exhausting outflow very symetrically.
Any Thoughts?
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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WELL SAID !
I'm just a guy who watches whirls on a Sat. feed, and I thought the same thing. I haven't really seen Dean hit the "roof" so to speak. I have seen other storms flatten out on top when it does barrel into a ridge.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I've also noticed a more northward component to the forward motion. Its been consistent for a couple of hours so its hard to look at it as 'wobble'. We will see if the next forecast point by the verifies.
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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MissouriHurricane2008
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Missouri, USA
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new model shows dean right to the west of new orleans 
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
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Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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It's so weird to see these models so far apart right now. They are all over the place. I don't think you can take any of them seriously right now...at least once you get past day 3.
Shawn
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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Charley was projected to make landfall in Tampa until he "wobbled" and made landfall in Punta Gorda.
The bottom line is, EVEN when it's close to shore, it can still be unexpected exactly where a storm makes landfall. So everyone who is along the Gulf coast should be WATCHING this storm. It doesn't mean panic or board up. It means double-check all your provisions, make sure you can get your shutters/boards up, revisit your evacuation plan, make a hotel reservation inland, whatever you do. Make sure it's ready to go. And start up the generator and make sure it runs and you can start it. Your mechanic will NOT be able to get it running for you 24 hours before landfall!!!
Also, as someone else noted, go fill up your cars and don't let them get below half full. NOT saying to go fill up twenty gas cans. I'm saying stay smart and stay safe.
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
Edited by madmumbler (Fri Aug 17 2007 07:02 PM)
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weather999
Weather Watcher
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Loc: southwestern ontario, canada
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Is it just me, or is 961 mb a bit high for a mid cat 3? Perhaps I've just been softened down a bit in the past few years with extremely low pressure storms such as , , and ..
Im gonna say that Dean will reach borderline cat 5/perhaps 160 mph, if the track of the storm shifts a bit south, causing the centre to miss Jamaica.
Also, the model has Dean reaching 148kt/140kt intensity before predicted landfall west of New Orleans, let us hope that this will not be the case.
And a question: Do storms that have smaller hurricane-force wind areas tend to be stronger?
Edited by weather999 (Fri Aug 17 2007 07:20 PM)
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twizted sizter
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That's a point the always tries to make...the models can be seriously off after 3 days. Heck they've flipped all over the place with Dean from run to run...about the only thing the models seem certain on is Jamacia is in the crosshairs. ..because of questions in the ridge & the movement & effects of the ULL, everything after that is a crapshoot.
Because of the obvious vuneralabilty of La..both before & most importantly after ...the latest is worrisome. Not to mention the effects of a landfalling major in this spot to the rest of the country.
Someone asked for links to models. On the main page are links to various model sites although I know earlier the site was experiencing loading problems.
As an aside Dean is looking quite impressive & has proven to be an interesting & even nail biting storm to track.
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LisaC
Weather Watcher
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Quote:
That's a point the always tries to make...the models can be seriously off after 3 days. Heck they've flipped all over the place with Dean from run to run...about the only thing the models seem certain on is Jamacia is in the crosshairs. ..because of questions in the ridge & the movement & effects of the ULL, everything after that is a crapshoot.
Because of the obvious vuneralabilty of La..both before & most importantly after ...the latest is worrisome. Not to mention the effects of a landfalling major in this spot to the rest of the country.
Someone asked for links to models. On the main page are links to various model sites although I know earlier the site was experiencing loading problems.
As an aside Dean is looking quite impressive & has proven to be an interesting & even nail biting storm to track.
Glad you made that point, because i often think whether they should get rid of the 5 day cone, as it seems to be pretty useless. I wonder if there is a any study as of the effectiveness of the five day cone compared to getting people ready and focused on the storm. As for Dean, just looked at the sat image, very impressive. I have close friends that live in Jamaica, I am getting nervous. Considering how the is acting, would not be surprised to see a good shift in the 5 or maybe 11 pm track or at least the 5 day cone.
Edited by LisaC (Fri Aug 17 2007 07:26 PM)
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
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Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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I wouldn't expect to see too much of a shift since the is the outliner in the group of models. So far it is the only model that has shifted that far to the right so wouldn't expect much right now.
Shawn
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Texas Cane Tracker
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Loc: Tomball, TX
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If the center of Dean does indeed go over Jamacia, how disruptive will this be to the storm? I am not familiar with the terrain there. It would seem that if Dean remains a major hurricane if/when it hits Jamacia that the weakening would not be substantial since it would be back over water in a short period of time.
Thanks.
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LisaC
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 39
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Quote:
If the center of Dean does indeed go over Jamacia, how disruptive will this be to the storm? I am not familiar with the terrain there. It would seem that if Dean remains a major hurricane if/when it hits Jamacia that the weakening would not be substantial since it would be back over water in a short period of time.
Thanks.
Jamaica is actually very hilly, famous for the Blue Mountains and its Blue Mountain coffee (yummmy)
I think right over Jamaica could have some effect, but not the kind you will see as Cuba and Hispanola. For the past couple of years Jamaica has dodged direct hits with storms going right above or right below it. Maybe their time has run out?
Edited by LisaC (Fri Aug 17 2007 07:34 PM)
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charlottefl
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Storm Winds Pressure
Category 3 111-130 964-945
Now keep in mind these are only guidlines as far as pressure is concerned. If the sea surface pressures are lower during a certian year or time period the winds can be higher with higher pressures. is a perfect example. The pressures in 's core did not correlate perfectly with wind speed. So it is possible for a storm to be one category with the pressure range of another.
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FlaRebel
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Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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He does appear that he will miss his next forecasted spot to the north. It will be an interesting next 48 hours for sure.
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Texas Cane Tracker
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Loc: Tomball, TX
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I know the NWS used to have a "Strike Probability Chart" for hurricanes. It would show numerical values expressed as probabilities for a hurricane passing within "x" nautical miles of a particular area. I do not see that on their site any more. Does anyone have any insight as to where I can find this information?
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