MikeC
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8:30 AM 18 Aug 2007 Update
The latest recon shows about the same windspeed as in the advisory, and the pressure down to 926mb, and since the next two or three days are going to be critical for the ultimate mainland landfall location, I'm sure there is a lot of "no it's moving more north-- no it's moving more west" type of observations, which are always interesting...
Intense Hurricanes with eyes like Dean tend to wobble around like a spinning top, and it's hard to gauge if something is a trend, or a wobble. The SSD satellites with the forecast track overlays are helpful here, but I think bare minimum is a 4 frame change to really see if something is a wobble or a true movement.
Track is not the only variable, forward speed is as well, so it's important to watch the changes in forward speed as it affects the eventual movement of the system. It appears the latest model runs initialized the Upper Level Low over Florida too weak, so what this means for the track is uncertain at this time.
This shows the official forecast track from 5AM, vs the actual position of Hurricane Dean at 8:30AM. Click the image to go to the latest animation (Check the "Trop Pts" Box to see the track overlay)
7:30AM EDT 18 August 2007 Update
Dean has strenghtened a bit overnight to just shy of Category 5 strength, with 150MPH winds.
Dean is at a high enough intensity to start being affected by hard to time eyewall replacement cycles and other less understood elements of very extreme hurricanes. However that said, it still hasn't reached the warmest waters of the Caribbean yet, and may strengthen further. It is likely to weaken and strengthen some in cycles as it maintains this intensity for a bit.
The National Hurricane Center hasn't really changed the forecast track at all in the past two days, and continues it on the generally just slightly north of west motion into the Yucatan and eventually into Northern Mexico, however there is still some wildcards in the future track, especially as it approaches 85west, but the 's track makes the most sense at this time.
Jamaica will have until tonight before effects from dean start showing up, and the worst of it on Sunday.
9:35PM EDT 17 August 2007 Update
Recon has found 145 MPH winds, making Dean now a stronger Category 4 hurricane. Minimum pressure is now 936 mb. Dean is still strengthening.
Jamaica... For comparison, hurricane gilbert in 1988 had135MPH winds when it hit Jamaica.
Original Update
Recon Aircraft found a pressure of 946 mb and flight level winds of 146 knots, which estimated down to the surface represents about a 135MPH Hurricane, crossing into Category 4 terrirtory.
Dean has strengthened very rapidly today from a category 2 in the morning, to a category 3 in the afternoon, to a
category 4 at 8PM. Jamaica is the next target, dean would likely make its closest approach to Jamaica Sunday afternoon. Please take this one seriously Jamaica, it may not brush by like Emily did a few years ago. and very well may be stronger when it does.
After that, the Caymans may have to deal with this system. Then the Yucatan is now looking like a target, models have shifted back again (Well the did), it is still far enough out that it's worth watching for anyone in the Gulf and Caribbean though. Dean may have more surprises to come.
See Clark's blog below this article for more on the future of Hurricane Dean.
Event Related Links:
Jamaican Radio (106 Power)
Go Jamaica Hurricane Dean Watch
Jamaica Gleaner (Jamaican Newspaper)
Jamaican StormCarib Reports
Jamaican Meteorological Service
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar
Martinique Radar Animation Recording
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allan
Weather Master
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I will not be surprised if Dean is a category 5 tommorrow morning with a pressure of 900 or below.. Nort saying it will happen but a hurricane that intesifies in the "Hurricane Graveyard" is rare.. Anyways much more comparision to Allen back in 1980, the question that lies beneath and will be answered tommorrow is "will the ULL be west enough for the track to stay on course?"
If that ULL is'nt in FL or in teh GOM by tommorrow, expect a big change in course!
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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NRL site now shows Dean at 120kts, which is 138mph. Of course the only forecasts in 5kt/5mph increments, so that might not represent any strengthening at all.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Impressive microwave overpass just in:
http://tinyurl.com/3xlv4r
Clearly visible eye and feeder bands.
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Lee-Delray
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Is it me or did Dean jist squeek under Herbert's Box? Hard to tell.
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DougBaker
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It would seem beyond the atmospheric conditions, that the interaction with land that will have a great impact on the future of Dean.
How big of a piece of land does it take to zap the strength of this size hurricane? Is Jamaica big enough? or if this storms moves across the Mexican Yucatan, could it die in the gulf or for certain regain strength.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
It'll probably be 145 mph by 11 PM
Or higher...
the next recon isn't until the morning I don't think, but whenever it is, unless there is an intervening eyewall replacement cycle, I think they'll find a cat 5.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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dem05
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The number 15 express has departed...I'm trying to be a bit humorous here on a Friday Night 
Dean reached 15 north and has rode along that same latitude like along freight train on rails. Earlier today, everyone was concerned that Dean seemed alittle north of path, and he may be going elsewhere. Bottom line is this, if you trimline everything, Dean remains on the "Here to Jamaica" path. Don not get overly concerned about a little north of path, and little west of path for thenext 36 hours. This will happen and it means little.
Later on, and beyond Jamaica, the Riddler would have a field day. Being in SW Florida, I still think a visit from Dean is a wildcard. However, to phrase the ever and always confident and and straigh forward Hurricane Specialist Avila at the the 5PMdiscussion, he offerred a blanket statement. Coming from him,this is a more significant message and he posted it at the end of the discussion.
"THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN."
I only mention this becuase a lot of folks are stating Alabama westward and etc. Florida Folks, it is not very likely that we will see something from this one, but keep in mind that it is out there and there are some atmospheric dynamics that could create a surprise change in course. If those changes in the forecast philospophy occur, you may need to take action...Just something to keep in mind in case of a surprise...With that said, I do not expect any major surprises at this time, but Saturday night into Sunday may be a day of truth along the Gulf...Everyone will have a much better idea of the upper ridge/trough/ULL interaction by then.
Otherwise, nothing much new to report in my thinking that hasn't already been said.
Edited by dem05 (Sat Aug 18 2007 01:49 AM)
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
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Quote:
Is it me or did Dean jist squeek under Herbert's Box? Hard to tell.
I had NO clue what you are referring to, so I looked it up and below is an explanation:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
Is it me or did Dean jist squeek under Herbert's Box? Hard to tell.
Hebert's Box, according to this site: http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-6748972_ITM
Covers between 15 N and 20 N and 60 W and 65 W.
Dean's location of 15N 64.5W, was WITHIN the box, at 5pm.
UPDATE FROM ... Dean now with winds of 145mph as of 9:30pm ET.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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MikeC
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Wow, I can't remember this strong a storm in this part of the Caribbean, Jamaica better hope for some sort of weakening trend, dry air, shear, or something along those lines. 145MPH winds and 936mb pressure is unlike anything recent.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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New recon in
Wind speed is down slightly, but pressure is also down.
Summary:
936mb pressure
111 kt winds
15 nm circular eye.
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646
URNT12 KNHC 180136
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/01:15:40Z
B. 14 deg 51 min N
065 deg 29 min W
C. NA mb 2579 m
D. 111 kt
E. 044 deg 011 nm
F. 136 deg 138 kt
G. 044 deg 011 nm
H. 936 mb
I. 10 C/ 3056 m
J. 20 C/ 3047 m
K. 008 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. 15
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0504A DEAN OB 09
MAX FL WIND 138 KT NE QUAD 01:12:20 Z
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weatherguy08
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Quote:
If that ULL isn't in FL or in the GOM by tomorrow, expect a big change in course!
Allan, you mentioned this about the upper-level low. What changes did you exactly mean?
Anyway, I am very interested to see what the 10:00 PM CDT forecast is going to show. The appears to have come back towards the consensus, if there is one. now put Dean near Galveston.
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Hugh
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Hate to say it Random Chaos, but that recon report was the one where they got the 145mph winds.
138kts at flight level, times 90% = 124.2kts at surface, which is 142.83mph.
Line D is an unofficial estimate of the winds based upon what they see from the aircraft, as I understand it, it's not the official wind speed reported, which is based upon an extrapolation of 90% of flight level (at the level they are currently flying).
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
Wow, I can't remember this strong a storm in this part of the Caribbean, Jamaica better hope for some sort of weakening trend, dry air, shear, or something along those lines. 145MPH winds and 936mb pressure is unlike anything recent.
Mike... I started to ask y'all if anyone ever remembered a hurricane this intense in this part of the Caribbean. This is, traditionally, considered the Graveyard. Events have seemingly conspired to create the monster that is Dean, though.
WU recon report indicates pressure down to 935. vortex message shows 937.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sat Aug 18 2007 01:53 AM)
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MikeC
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Yep, check out the "Recon Info" link on the left which has a "Hurricane Hunter" to English translation program there.
I want to trash the model right now. The latest run... don't even joke with me putting a 170MPH hurricane nearing Galveston/Houston. If you follow these models they will stress you out, this one is beginning to. If it shoots the gap as a strong storm into the hot central Guif, it's possible but probably overdone.
But like I said, I'm ready to trash it, and go with the westward trend, 15N, and that idea now. But still, this system has a ways to go, it hasn't reached Jamaica, still in the Eastern Caribbean and wouldn't be anywhere near the Gulf until Tuesday-Wednesday. So it helps to keep perspective.
edit: corrections made, initial reaction to the surprise was a little over the top.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Hugh, yeah, I assumed the surface speed estimate was good - usually it is.
The vortex recon was updated. Pressure was increased by 1 mb to 937mb.
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Beach
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http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059
The center of Dean is about 80-100 miles away, and winds are picking up at our bouy.
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 33.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 11.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.1 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.75 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 84.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 72.9 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 90.5 °F
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
Yep, check out the "Recon Info" link on the left which has a "Hurricane Hunter" to English translation program there.
I've looked at that page in years past and it was Greek to me, but maybe I should give it another shot.
Quote:
But like I said, I'm ready to trash it, and go with the westward trend, 15N, and that idea now.
I really do not buy the westward trend *across* the Yucatan, but I'm not ready to rule it out either, partly because the shear thought of a 190mph superstorm entering the bathwater of the eastern/central Gulf... and THEN potentially going through the Loop Current? Impossible to comprehend. So, for me, it's much easier to accept that Dean will strike the Yucatan and then go on over to Texas.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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The is NOT forecasting a 190 mph hurricane...it's forecasting 190 mph 35 meter winds....there would be quite a bit of reduction down to SFC from 35 meters...probably down to about 170 mph..which is STILL not good to ponder, but not 190. Just clearing things up. (BTW, I think the is WAY overdone)
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Jason Kelley
Edited by wxman007 (Sat Aug 18 2007 02:11 AM)
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