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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength [Re: wxman007]
      #76795 - Fri Aug 17 2007 10:12 PM

alright back online.. wow... go away for a bit.... and come back.... one vortex drop to another... it drops... what almost 10mb in less than two hours? Almost certain an eyewall replacement cycle will be happening tonight....

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #76796 - Fri Aug 17 2007 10:21 PM

Quote:

alright back online.. wow... go away for a bit.... and come back.... one vortex drop to another... it drops... what almost 10mb in less than two hours? Almost certain an eyewall replacement cycle will be happening tonight....




Looking at the AVN loop, it's hard to say, but one COULD be underway right now. Or it could just be regrouping in preparation for the move up the Cat 5. The cloud tops around the eye have warmed a bit though over the last hour or two.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength [Re: Hugh]
      #76798 - Fri Aug 17 2007 10:28 PM

hmm... trying to catch back up.. looks like they may move the official track to the left some in the 11pm... As for the Eyewall Replacement cycle... was trying to look at recon data and see if the eyewall is closing in... between drops... looks so, so slightly.. I expect that we may see the Cat 5 of Dean in the next 12-24 hrs. Wow... rapid intensification today! and not even near the warmest waters of the Carb.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Aug 17 2007 10:45 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #76799 - Fri Aug 17 2007 10:33 PM

Looking at the AVN IR loop at SSD, the storm is shedding it's long feeder bands and starting to take on the classical pinwheel shape.

I would expect continued intensification.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #76800 - Fri Aug 17 2007 10:34 PM

Quote:

Wow... rapid intensification today! and not even near the warmest waters of the Carb.




Yeah... I've been wondering about that. This area is supposed to be the Hurricane Graveyard. So why is Dean proving to be the obstinent (pick your expletive)? Why can't it cooperate and fall apart like good hurricanes are supposed to do in the Graveyard? Seriously, this could get really REALLY ugly for Jamaica unless an eyewall replacement cycle intervenes, and does so at the right time. Now, one could come but then Dean could restrengthen even more after it ends, but before nearing Jamaica.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength [Re: Random Chaos]
      #76801 - Fri Aug 17 2007 10:36 PM

Did notice that the Dewpoint inside the eye, dropped about from 13c to 8c... (from 23:32:00z to 01:15:40z.) and strongest winds were measured on the NE quad of storm... roughly about 12 miles from the center. Plane last i saw was flying on an east route.. well south of storm...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #76802 - Fri Aug 17 2007 10:39 PM

Given this appearance on MW imagery, I don't think an eyewall replacement cycle is likely for at least another 12-18 hours:



It has some of the makings of an outer eyewall, but lacks the closed structure to one, suggesting that a significant eyewall replacement isn't likely in the short term. Plus, Dean is moving toward a region even more favorable from a heat potential standpoint:



If it stays far enough south of Hispaniola, things could get pretty interesting as it nears that warm eddy. Of course, by then, it might be in the midst of an eyewall replacement cycle...only time will tell.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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neospaceblue
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 28
Loc: Newport News, VA
Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength [Re: Clark]
      #76804 - Fri Aug 17 2007 10:46 PM

NHC has landfall over the Yucatan as a Cat 5

--------------------
I survived: Hurricane Bonnie (1998), Hurricane Dennis (1999), Hurricane Floyd (1999), Hurricane Isabel (2003), Tropical Storm Ernesto (2006)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength [Re: Clark]
      #76805 - Fri Aug 17 2007 10:48 PM

hmm... i didn't think anything was goin on right now... what gave it away is recon didn't report to two eyewalls.... but...i am curious to see what NASA images are up tomorrow... were there any HOT towers this afternoon that helped Dean to get a goin?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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weather999
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 25
Loc: southwestern ontario, canada
Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength [Re: Clark]
      #76806 - Fri Aug 17 2007 11:07 PM

Just a couple questions about hurricanes and warm eddy's that would be greatly appreciated to be answered.

Does the actual eye/eyewall of the hurricane need to pass OVER the eddy to intensify the hurricane?

Because in Dean's scenario, according to latest track, the centre would pass just north of the eddy.. another question--can eddy's move/intensify/weaken in 24-48 hours?

Thanks!


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength [Re: weather999]
      #76807 - Fri Aug 17 2007 11:12 PM

ok Dean slowed down some is this due to the ULL everyone has been going on about? And could the ULL start effecting Dean in the next 48 hrs and on? Lastly, when and/or if the ULL effected Dean what would be the effect and what time frame could we see it in?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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GENIE
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
Loc: North Carolina
Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #76808 - Fri Aug 17 2007 11:27 PM

If you have not checked it out lately. There is a good view of the eye on the long range Puerto Rico long range radar.

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength [Re: weather999]
      #76809 - Fri Aug 17 2007 11:29 PM

No, not necessarily; some thing that passing over gradients of heat potential associated with those eddies is sufficient. Just part of the circulation passing over such an eddy would likely provide a minor boost to the outer circulation, so while it may not be the direct positive punch to the inner core, it would still be significant.

Eddys do move and change in intensity, but not over time spans of 1-2 days unless something like a major hurricane passes over them (generally causing substantial weakening). The time scale of significant oceanic change is generally at least a week.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength [Re: Clark]
      #76810 - Fri Aug 17 2007 11:31 PM

New vortex recon. Little change from the last:

491
URNT12 KNHC 180328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/02:58:10Z
B. 14 deg 53 min N
065 deg 55 min W
C. 700 mb 2547 m
D. 126 kt
E. 148 deg 007 nm
F. 245 deg 117 kt
G. 141 deg 005 nm
H. 935 mb
I. 11 C/ 3049 m
J. 20 C/ 3028 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C15
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0504A DEAN OB 17
MAX FL WIND 138 KT NE QUAD 01:12:20 Z
MAX FL WND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 129KT @ 03:00:50Z


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength [Re: Random Chaos]
      #76811 - Fri Aug 17 2007 11:36 PM

WU recon report shows minimum pressure of 932 (not in a vortex message, though). Regardless, it's not going UP any, and may be continuing to plummet.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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jbmusic
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 42
Loc: Bradenton, Fl
Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength [Re: Hugh]
      #76812 - Fri Aug 17 2007 11:43 PM

In reading the lastest advisory it says tropical force winds extend out 205 miles. If this storm goes across the tip of the Yucatan or between it and Cuba. Wouldn't the Florida Keys feel tropical force winds?

--------------------
Jenny Bradenton, Florida
www.bbdigitalphoto.com


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength [Re: jbmusic]
      #76813 - Fri Aug 17 2007 11:47 PM

Quote:

In reading the lastest advisory it says tropical force winds extend out 205 miles. If this storm goes across the tip of the Yucatan or between it and Cuba. Wouldn't the Florida Keys feel tropical force winds?




If it goes across thetip of Cuba, or through the Yucatan Channel, it will be a close call, but on the current forecast track, the closest T.S. force winds would get is the centerline across Cuba longwise.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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EMS
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength [Re: jbmusic]
      #76814 - Fri Aug 17 2007 11:48 PM

Staring at Water Vapor Loop imagery - it seems the ULL east of Florida is nudging towards the west ever so slowly and also seems to be even dropping a little south. Could this feature already be having an impact on the storm? Could this be why Dean is slowing down? I always tell folks (rightly or wrongly) it's simple physics - it's harder for storms to turn the faster they are moving. Not saying the storm will turn, just trying (like everyone else) to understand the dynamics of the ULL and how it might interact with Dean.

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Mike N
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 16
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #76815 - Fri Aug 17 2007 11:48 PM

First, thanks to all pros, semi-pros and all the others with insightful comments. This is the most informative hurricane site on the net! (That I've found at least) I am a 3 year lurker with little comments - just enjoy the reading. A few thoughts I've had that never seem to be answered.

Few Things: Dem05 posted yesterday about watching the ULL over the Bahamas and it's obvious consequences in determining Dean's ultimate track. The ULL hasn't moved that much - maybe roughly 100 mi WSW to just off West Palm. This pace is slow. If Dean was to get to a position due S of the ULL which direction would he want to be pulled. Wasn't it supposed to have been moving faster already? Also, NHC mentioned that it should weaken as it progresses westward. I know they were probably talking about as it traverses the GOM but looking at WV - how does one tell if it is weakening? Does the spin pace slow and it starts to open up if you will? Also, there is a lot of talk about the ridge...what's the best way to see this ridge? WV? Again, what am I looking for? On WV now, between the ULL over the Bahamas and the ULL roughly located at 27N 52W there is a line where black starts to meet brown situated from 29N 70W running SE to 23N 55W...is this the ridge? I know there are not exact answers to all of these questions, if there were, we'd all know where Dean is going. Any insight on some of the basic questions I'm sure would help everyone.

Dem05 - what is your day by day analysis tongiht? I was looking forward to your follow up thoughts from how things progressed from last night as you saw them.

Thanks and God Bless to all wherever this thing ends up.


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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength [Re: Mike N]
      #76816 - Fri Aug 17 2007 11:58 PM

It looks as though the arms of this storm are very big. I was looking at the pictures with my fiancee and he says that the strength that Dean has defies all odds. He thinks that Dean has strenghtened over the past few days immensly because of the span of the Arms is very large. He thinks that it is a possibility that this storm is going to weaken and then gain strength again because of the warm waters. He also thinks that Florida should atleast prepare for the aftermath, because he said that he remembers Floyd when the armbands hit them, they got severe thunderstorms. We are getting some storms, whether this is occuring because of Dean or not, we dont know.

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


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