lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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earlier today watching the 30 picture loop you could clearly see first the cold tops dramtically slow and then as Clark says the wind fields across the hurricane became very "diluted" and also visibly slowed. NASA loop
what I now find interesting is how in the last few frames the SE and then the E outer edge of Dean has become very clearly defined, as if a spinning skater was pulling its arms in to spin faster, or perhaps this related to end of day cooling, or dry air infiltration.
Edited by lunkerhunter (Sat Aug 18 2007 11:43 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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I would hesitate to compare anything to , which was simply a freak of nature. Dean is at a different stage in its development. basically rode its initial rapid intensification phase all the way down to 882 mb and cat 5 status before it had to deal with any eyewall replacements. Dean's initial rapid intensification phase ended last night or early this morning and now it is trying to recover from a EWRC.
The total kinetic energy of Dean has probably increased with the drop in pressure, but as Clark mentioned the pressure gradient (which drives the winds) near the center is flatter than usual because of the multiple eyewalls. As a result, there is a fairly large area being affected by cat 2-3 winds, rather than a small, focused area being affected by cat 4+ winds. If a single eyewall can become dominant, then the maximum wind speeds will almost certainly come up, even if the pressure does not drop any more.
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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As another response to LunkerHunter. There is a BIG difference in the overall geography for Jamaica to New Orleans that explains some of the lower storm surge. In the northern gulf the water pushed ahead of a hurricane runs into the gulf coast as a wall of land and the water HAS to go inland until the back pressure can overcome the storm's winds and pressure and allow it back out again. This can pile up the water a LOT and result in those huge storm surges. For Jamaica, a major part of that dome of water has the ability to go AROUND the island as the path of least resistance and therefore you won't have a comparable storm surge to what a storm landfalling along an extended coastline would produce. Hope that helps....it is not the ONLY factor, but added to what Guppie said it is another part of the equation.
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Since we keep comparing Dean to Allen and Gilbert, I took the liberty to put together a track comparison. (Hope doesn't mind my use of his maps.)
See attached.
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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The wildcard in all this is the ULL currently in the Gulf of Mexico. If this ULL continues West and moves out of the way, Dean should continue on its projected path.
However, if this ULL slows down or stalls in the Western Gulf Coast, it would basically block Dean from going West and force him more North in the Gulf of Mexico. We'll know for sure when Dean inches closer to the Yucatan peninsula.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Another recon; little change:
754
URNT12 KNHC 190352
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 19/03:17:20Z
B. 16 deg 14 min N
071 deg 50 min W
C. 700 mb 2383 m
D. 112 kt
E. 322 deg 025 nm
F. 057 deg 118 kt
G. 320 deg 031 nm
H. 919 mb
I. 6 C/ 3049 m
J. 18 C/ 3050 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0704A DEAN OB 23
MAX FL WIND 130 KT NE QUAD 02:14:00 Z
REMNANTS OF INNER EYEWALL E060/16/13
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Lamar, look at the M shaped, E & SE facing coves that Kingston and Freetown are in. I disagree. Jamaica map
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
The wildcard in all this is the ULL currently in the Gulf of Mexico. If this ULL continues West and moves out of the way, Dean should continue on its projected path.
However, if this ULL slows down or stalls in the Western Gulf Coast, it would basically block Dean from going West and force him more North in the Gulf of Mexico. We'll know for sure when Dean inches closer to the Yucatan peninsula.
The chances of this happening now are pretty low, I'm finding nothing that would indicate that happening now. The really is probably going to nail the future path of this storm pretty well.
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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analysis regarding storm surge at Kingston.
page 12. 100 years storm would produce 28 foot waves. Kingston storm surge
a lot of other very interesting info regarding storm run off too.
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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Mike, I totally I agree with you. There is nothing out there now standing in the way of Dean taking the path that the has set forth. The ULL was the key player but it has moved along at the same speed as Dean so he will never catch up to it. If anything I think the projected path may continue to slide further south. Dean may act as some storms have in the past and never even make it into the water of the BOC if things continue the way they have been going.
Shawn
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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looks like recon is making another pass... pressure is lowering... and winds are coming up.... alt. is now at about 9,600ft. WInds for the about 10mins on the HDOB were at or above 75pmh to 110mph.... and if i got my lat./long correct... they should of just went throught the NE eyewall.. Heading to the SW
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Aug 19 2007 12:28 AM)
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oil tracker
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 8
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Quote:
The really is probably going to nail the future path of this storm pretty well.
Correct Mike.
Now all models are in a very narrow cluster for several days ahead, even the rebel , I don’t understand the need to look for now for another track. Tomorrow maybe things change and one, two or all model adjust in the same way their forecast or not, but today try to beat all mathematical (good, regular or bad) models run by experienced meteorologists, all together pointing out the same is just silly.
Despite the boring linear track, this storm is very amazing, even the linear pattern for such a long time and with this power intact is very peculiar. I don’t remember one like this. And also there are 4 or 5 days yet left probably looking the same.
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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I'm gonna go with Mike on this statement. The chances are looking pretty low of a turn, my comments have been geared toward the overallpattern and the players that could pose alow chance turn, but they may have decreased even more since my last post...Still something to eye as a just in case, but not to be taken too much more seriously at this point based on model agreement and etc. The probably does have this about nailed as I'm watching additional upper level interaction tonight.
Many of us have been talking about the possiblility of the ULL over the gulf being held back...In doing so, we have failed to talk about the full ramifications if it continues tomove toward the western Gulf. The Gulf ULL is picking up some moisture as it moves over those same upper 80-90degreewaters that Dean will visitin a few days as we speak. No, DO NOT look at this ULL for tropical development! But Texas has had a lot of rain this year, Erin agrivated that, and my heart really goes to Texas if the ULL over the Gulf moves that way...drops more rain...then Dean comes along and drops even more. Even with a path into Mexico, Dean is large enough to be a potentially painful...agrivating moisture source to Texas if things progress as forecast.
P.S. Side note, Fox News has been showing some amazing pictures from inside the eye of Dean today. The Air Force Rocon Group provided them exclusively to Fox News. I just checked their website, unfortunately...they are not available there yet.
Edited by dem05 (Sun Aug 19 2007 12:36 AM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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lowest pressure i think is still about the same... 918mb.. winds at flt. level still about the same too... 120-140mph... I think highest wind i saw was 136mph
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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weather999
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 25
Loc: southwestern ontario, canada
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Any other theories (besides the "diluting" of max winds) to explain the Cat V like satellite pictures, the tremendous outflow (see attachment), 918 mb pressure, but lower intensity?--or Is it just a matter of time that Dean will boost up to 155+mph?
Edited by weather999 (Sun Aug 19 2007 12:49 AM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Vortex recon in. still underway.
490
URNT12 KNHC 190447
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 19/04:17:00Z
B. 16 deg 17 min N
072 deg 05 min W
C. 700 mb 2391 m
D. 108 kt
E. 046 deg 014 nm
F. 128 deg 122 kt
G. 047 deg 020 nm
H. EXTRAP 920 mb
I. 7 C/ 3046 m
J. 18 C/ 3046 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C23
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0704A DEAN OB 28
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 04:10:50 Z
INNER EYEWALL REMNANTS OPEN NNE AND E030/18/15
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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I'm glad to see that more people are realizing what I realized a long time ago...NHC had this one nailed down pretty much from the beginning. You can't argue with the fact that just about all the models, except for the which now is in agreement with all the others, have been in pretty much agreement for a while on the Mexico landfall. That is what we look for to start narrowing down where these storms are going to end up. To be honest, I see a very good possibility that Dean doesn't ever make it into the water of the BOC...I'm talking the eye. I'm not finding anything that would cause it to change from it's mainly true westerly course. I guess time will tell. He is a sight to see,however.
Shawn
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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There was really no question on this making a W path...but as each day goes by...you can really only account for up to 3 days in advance for each models reliablity...after that...margin of error increase dramaticly. There was no real threat except TX and that was only cause it was more then 5 days out. You go back 5 days ago and the whole U.S. Coastline was in the error cone and even it may have been a fish storm.
Most Mets and models were thinking MX some hype was over TX but that wasnt and really still isnt out of the question cause its more then 3 days out ...aka 4. Overall expect a west - WNW path to continue till landfall near 20 N or I think just south of there giving Cozumel gusts to near H1 then a Cat 2 remaking landfall sometime on Thurs give or take alittle.
Current concern is Jamaica as it should move about 50-100 miles south of the Island Sunday evening and night.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Dean still seems to be hanging in there... the cloud tops have warmed slightly, but the eye is still well-defined and the outflow seems to have increased a little bit. The last recon seemed to indicate that remnants of an old eyewall are still around... it seems like those can be difficult for these storms to get rid of sometimes. The intensity of the system looks like it will be the main forecast drama, with the models currently in very good agreement on the track.
Meanwhile, I can say from personal experience that Erin has (temporarily) come back to life over Oklahoma. Some parts of the state NW of Oklahoma City have seen sustained winds in excess of 40 mph with gusts over 60 mph for several hours straight, along with extremely heavy rainfall. We don't often get tropical storms here in Oklahoma, but we are having one tonight.
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Quote:
Lamar, look at the M shaped, E & SE facing coves that Kingston and Freetown are in. I disagree. Jamaica map
I don't mean to agree or disagree....you simply asked why the predicted storm surges seem much lower for Jamaica than for Louisiana and I suggested one possible reason. I am also looking at the wide scale picture, not individual bays and inlets. In small scale there are ALWAYS areas of higher surge or lower surge depending on the topography of the area and the angle of the wind/waves as the storm approaches. One has to look no further than my own are of Tampa Bay to see these type of differences. I STILL hold that the shape of the island will allow water ON THE LARGE scale to escape around the island and not pile up as if would if the shoreline were longer and perpendicular to the approach of the storm, and that this is one reason the storm surge predictions are lower for Jamaica than Louisiana.
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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